thewildrabbit Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 (edited) As others have noted it is a very flawed study using subjective terms like pressure without defining what that entails. It also does not take into account other factors like how many obvious passing downs a QB faced, not just how many drop-back attempts. QB's forced into 3rd and long situations with no running game will face defenses who sellout for blitzing and defending the pass. Last time I checked receivers drop the ball and can add to the "incompletion" stat. Fitz had a host of first year starters at the WR position last year and there were a lot of dropped passes. Fitz can be inaccurate (or it could be that his rookie receivers sometimes run a poor or the wrong route - I'm not in the huddle), but he usually put the ball where the receiver could make a play on it, he often had to tuck the ball and run to escape pressure with no time to throw and no obvious hot read. Fitz is 4th on the list of rushing QBs and 3rd for rushing yards per attempt. He also sucked at protecting the ball and fumbled and lost the ball more often than anyone would like to see, and I put it out there so folks know I am not just reading all the positives into his play. Fitz looked like a guy under a new offensive coach, in a new offensive system, with rookie receivers, no consistent O-line performance (for a variety of reasons), no TE to speak of, with an offense that couldn't buy a running game, and a defense that couldn't get off the field... I think Chan and Buddy made the right call. At the very least let's wait till they fix some of the broken crap around Fitz and if his play does not improve the team invests in another QB (which they will do anyways just to groom someone for the future). I for one would like to see what Fitz could do with a better supporting cast and a defense that can take some of the burden off the offense and give them more chances with the ball. Just to seal my point here is a video reminder from the distant past of last season. Stevie had what... about 5-6 dropped passes that day? A pressure situation in OT with the Steelers zone blitz (picked up fairly well, but as a QB you know there is a good chance that Harrison is going to nail you after the throw anyway) and there's Fitz, as he did that entire game, standing up to the pressure and delivering a perfect strike. Would we have been talking differently about him if his receiving core had come to play that game and we had trounced the Steelers - I wonder??? newp ... Fitz's detractors would still be whining and complaining he isn't a "franchise" QB....but! The Detroit Lions drafted their franchise QB in Matthew Stafford in 09 to the tune of 41.7 million for 6 years. The guy has played in 10 games in 09, and only 3 games in 2010 all because of injuries he obtained while playing QB for the Lions. 13 games out of 32 because his team failed to protect him properly, they drafted him before they built the line. So what do the Lions do this year, draft another DT-WR-RB and wait till round 7 to draft an OT. Just a simple comparison, the GB Packers also have their "franchise" QB and had a better O line then the Lions 2 years ago and yet drafted an OT in 2010 with their first round draft pick, they won the SB and this year draft another OT with their first pick again. The Packers realize that they need to protect Aaron Rodgers better to win games, after all he was concussed against the Lions last year and missed a game. Now what happens if that concussion was more severe and he misses more then one game, the Packers don't even make the playoffs much less win the SB. Which team does the Buffalo Bills resemble...the Bills talked big before the 2010 NFL draft about making the O line a "priority" and yet took a KR-RB with the first round pick and 2 late round developmental O line players in the 5th and 7th rounds, basically ignoring the O line. then again this year both Nix and Gailey state they need a RT, and then again ignore the position in the draft and draft another developmental project with the 2nd pick in the 4th round. The Point is, be grateful the Bills didn't draft a "franchise" QB in last years or this years drafts, the kid would have gotten killed last year and would get killed this year as the Buffalo Bills O line is still one of the worst in the league... ""Demetrius Bell – despite starting every game for the Bills at left tackle – was hardly better than his teammates on the right end of the line. Bell finished the season as the 52nd ranked tackle in 2010. He allowed the fifth most QB hits with 10, which won't win him many favors with Fitzpatrick or whoever else winds up being the quarterback in Buffalo. On a positive note, Bell was tied for ninth place among tackles by only allowing 4 sacks all year (minimum of 850 snaps)."" http://www.profootba...-buffalo-bills/ The best FA OT's are Redskins Jammal Brown - Atlanta's Tyson Clabo- NE Matt Light. I doubt the Buffalo Bills will be able to lure any of those three to Buffalo so in all probability the Bills will either use what they have on the roster or obtain another Cornell Green type for RT in free agency. Bottom line: you can expect Fitz to be running for his life again this year as the Bills face a tougher schedule then last year, you can expect the Bills to have another losing record this season and draft a so called "franchise" type QB next year because Fitz WON"T survive this season. Then if the Bills continue to fail at building the O line you can expect whatever QB they draft to end up exactly like 1st round pick JP Losman- like 3rd round pick Trent Edwards-like 2nd round pick Brian Brohm. Edited May 18, 2011 by Harvey lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 newp ... Fitz's detractors would still be whining and complaining he isn't a "franchise" QB....but! The Detroit Lions drafted their franchise QB in Matthew Stafford in 09 to the tune of 41.7 million for 6 years. The guy has played in 10 games in 09, and only 3 games in 2010 all because of injuries he obtained while playing QB for the Lions. 13 games out of 32 because his team failed to protect him properly, they drafted him before they built the line. So what do the Lions do this year, draft another DT-WR-RB and wait till round 7 to draft an OT. Just a simple comparison, the GB Packers also have their "franchise" QB and had a better O line then the Lions 2 years ago and yet drafted an OT in 2010 with their first round draft pick, they won the SB and this year draft another OT with their first pick again. The Packers realize that they need to protect Aaron Rodgers better to win games, after all he was concussed against the Lions last year and missed a game. Now what happens if that concussion was more severe and he misses more then one game, the Packers don't even make the playoffs much less win the SB. Which team does the Buffalo Bills resemble...the Bills talked big before the 2010 NFL draft about making the O line a "priority" and yet took a KR-RB with the first round pick and 2 late round developmental O line players in the 5th and 7th rounds, basically ignoring the O line. then again this year both Nix and Gailey state they need a RT, and then again ignore the position in the draft and draft another developmental project with the 2nd pick in the 4th round. The Point is, be grateful the Bills didn't draft a "franchise" QB in last years or this years drafts, the kid would have gotten killed last year and would get killed this year as the Buffalo Bills O line is still one of the worst in the league... ""Demetrius Bell – despite starting every game for the Bills at left tackle – was hardly better than his teammates on the right end of the line. Bell finished the season as the 52nd ranked tackle in 2010. He allowed the fifth most QB hits with 10, which won't win him many favors with Fitzpatrick or whoever else winds up being the quarterback in Buffalo. On a positive note, Bell was tied for ninth place among tackles by only allowing 4 sacks all year (minimum of 850 snaps)."" http://www.profootba...-buffalo-bills/ The best FA OT's are Redskins Jammal Brown - Atlanta's Tyson Clabo- NE Matt Light. I doubt the Buffalo Bills will be able to lure any of those three to Buffalo so in all probability the Bills will either use what they have on the roster or obtain another Cornell Green type for RT in free agency. Bottom line: you can expect Fitz to be running for his life again this year as the Bills face a tougher schedule then last year, you can expect the Bills to have another losing record this season and draft a so called "franchise" type QB next year because Fitz WON"T survive this season. Then if the Bills continue to fail at building the O line you can expect whatever QB they draft to end up exactly like 1st round pick JP Losman- like 3rd round pick Trent Edwards-like 2nd round pick Brian Brohm. I very strongly agree with what I see as the main point of your post. Namely, that if you have a young QB/first round pick on the roster, and if your OL is a mess, you have to get that mess cleaned up. And soon. And you have to make it a priority in the draft. You have to do more than just throw the occasional late round pick at players like Wang! Tampa Bay did the opposite of all that back when they'd drafted Steve Young. Other than Young himself, their early picks during that time period were generally used on defense--especially DBs--as well as on a RB taken first overall. No early picks were used on the OL, even though it was a shambles. After Young had been in the league two years, the Bucs traded him away for a second round pick. That's a good example of what not to do! But! Franchise QBs are very rare--far rarer than a lot of people think. Earlier in this thread someone made that exact point. If you don't have a franchise QB, and if there's one available when your draft pick comes up, you have to take him. Literally no other option should even be considered! If your OL is a mess, then obviously you have to get that taken care of. Drafting a QB makes the OL an even more urgent priority than it otherwise would have been. All this being said, the QBs of the future the Bills acquired during the post-Kelly era would almost certainly have failed no matter what the OL had been like. Steve Young had some success with the 49ers after he'd left Tampa. But Todd Collins, Billy Joe Hobart, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Alex van Pelt, Drew Bledsoe, J.P. Losman, Kelly Holcomb, and Trent Edwards didn't exactly set the world on fire after leaving Buffalo. The only possible exception I see on that list is . . . Rob Johnson! Had the Bills given Johnson enough pass protection, it's actually possible he could have had a solid career. Granted, Johnson's definition of "enough" pass protection is probably different from any other quarterback in the league. But if you'd put him behind a Hall of Fame LT--someone like Tony Boselli in Jacksonville--and if you'd made the rest of the OL like the Jets' offensive line, there's actually a chance Johnson could have met or exceeded the expectations the Bills had when they traded for him. But the combination of a lousy OL and a QB who very clearly needed a lot more pass protection than most to be successful doomed Johnson from the beginning. Especially when it became clear that the Bills' front office was much more interested in using its early picks on DBs and RBs than it was in using them on OTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 (edited) I very strongly agree with what I see as the main point of your post. Namely, that if you have a young QB/first round pick on the roster, and if your OL is a mess, you have to get that mess cleaned up. And soon. And you have to make it a priority in the draft. You have to do more than just throw the occasional late round pick at players like Wang! Tampa Bay did the opposite of all that back when they'd drafted Steve Young. Other than Young himself, their early picks during that time period were generally used on defense--especially DBs--as well as on a RB taken first overall. No early picks were used on the OL, even though it was a shambles. After Young had been in the league two years, the Bucs traded him away for a second round pick. That's a good example of what not to do! But! Franchise QBs are very rare--far rarer than a lot of people think. Earlier in this thread someone made that exact point. If you don't have a franchise QB, and if there's one available when your draft pick comes up, you have to take him. Literally no other option should even be considered! If your OL is a mess, then obviously you have to get that taken care of. Drafting a QB makes the OL an even more urgent priority than it otherwise would have been. All this being said, the QBs of the future the Bills acquired during the post-Kelly era would almost certainly have failed no matter what the OL had been like. Steve Young had some success with the 49ers after he'd left Tampa. But Todd Collins, Billy Joe Hobart, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Alex van Pelt, Drew Bledsoe, J.P. Losman, Kelly Holcomb, and Trent Edwards didn't exactly set the world on fire after leaving Buffalo. The only possible exception I see on that list is . . . Rob Johnson! Had the Bills given Johnson enough pass protection, it's actually possible he could have had a solid career. Granted, Johnson's definition of "enough" pass protection is probably different from any other quarterback in the league. But if you'd put him behind a Hall of Fame LT--someone like Tony Boselli in Jacksonville--and if you'd made the rest of the OL like the Jets' offensive line, there's actually a chance Johnson could have met or exceeded the expectations the Bills had when they traded for him. But the combination of a lousy OL and a QB who very clearly needed a lot more pass protection than most to be successful doomed Johnson from the beginning. Especially when it became clear that the Bills' front office was much more interested in using its early picks on DBs and RBs than it was in using them on OTs. yaa, I think the Bills owner is still wincing from that Mike Williams #3 overall in 02, because for some reason this franchise has avoided drafting tackles with early picks since 2002 I feel every QB you mentioned in your post would have played much better then they did with their actual stint in the NFL "IF" they had a premier OL in front of them. To bad about the only time the Bills had a premier O line was for OJ and the electric Co, and in the 80's-90's for JK The Buffalo Bills with Jim Kelly in the 80's, one of Polian's first drafts the bills took Left Tackle Will Wilford in the 86 draft with the 2nd first round draft pick, when the USFL went belly up he also brought in Center Kent Hull, the bills already had a #1 draft pick at LG in Jim Richter. Wolford started at RG but then moved to LT in 87.Just look at that 1990 Buffalo Bills O line- #1 pick LT Will Wolford-#1 pick LG Jim Ritcher-# 7 rd NJ Gen C Kent Hull- #11 pick Hou RG John Davis- #11 pick RT Howard "house" Ballard Now granted Hull- Davis- Ballard weren't top draft picks but Hull & Ballard went on to play great and became an all pro's. Hull had an 11 year career with the Bills, and Ballard an 11 year NFL Career 6 years with Buffalo-5 years with Seattle. Davis had a 9 year NFL career. Wolford had a 13 year career 7 with Buffalo- 3 with INdy- 3 with Pittsburgh. The Buffalo Bills haven't had a top O line since Jim Kelly played, that is most likely the reason they keep failing to find a QB who can win consistently.Perhaps the thing that bothers me the most is these so called professional coaches and GM's that teams keep hiring all through out the league, they keep thinking they can win if they have an "elite'' QB, and yet when they finally obtain one they utterly fail to protect him. Teams are so busy trying to put all the pieces together that they forget that when you build anything... you need a solid foundation to start with. The Buffalo Bills would be better suited to start building the team like the NY Jets did in 2006, instead of bringing in high priced free agent O linemen (that pissed off the pro bowl LT in Jason Peters), they should have built that O line thru the draft. Tell me you wouldn't love to have a Buffalo Bills team that could run the ball down the throats of the NE Patriots like the Baltimore Ravens did in that AFC wildcard game in New England a few years back. Thereby proving that 3 yards and a cloud of dust does still work in today's NFL, you simply have to have a decent QB to manage the game and not turn the ball over.Plus a dominate running attack will keep the ball out of the opposing QB's hands, which in itself is a great thing when you have face Tom Brady 2x a year Edited May 18, 2011 by Harvey lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 yaa, I think the Bills owner is still wincing from that Mike Williams #3 overall in 02, because for some reason this franchise has avoided drafting tackles with early picks since 2002 I feel every QB you mentioned in your post would have played much better then they did with their actual stint in the NFL "IF" they had a premier OL in front of them. To bad about the only time the Bills had a premier O line was for OJ and the electric Co, and in the 80's-90's for JK The Buffalo Bills with Jim Kelly in the 80's, one of Polian's first drafts the bills took Left Tackle Will Wilford in the 86 draft with the 2nd first round draft pick, when the USFL went belly up he also brought in Center Kent Hull, the bills already had a #1 draft pick at LG in Jim Richter. Wolford started at RG but then moved to LT in 87.Just look at that 1990 Buffalo Bills O line- #1 pick LT Will Wolford-#1 pick LG Jim Ritcher-# 7 rd NJ Gen C Kent Hull- #11 pick Hou RG John Davis- #11 pick RT Howard "house" Ballard Now granted Hull- Davis- Ballard weren't top draft picks but Hull & Ballard went on to play great and became an all pro's. Hull had an 11 year career with the Bills, and Ballard an 11 year NFL Career 6 years with Buffalo-5 years with Seattle. Davis had a 9 year NFL career. Wolford had a 13 year career 7 with Buffalo- 3 with INdy- 3 with Pittsburgh. The Buffalo Bills haven't had a top O line since Jim Kelly played, that is most likely the reason they keep failing to find a QB who can win consistently.Perhaps the thing that bothers me the most is these so called professional coaches and GM's that teams keep hiring all through out the league, they keep thinking they can win if they have an "elite'' QB, and yet when they finally obtain one they utterly fail to protect him. Teams are so busy trying to put all the pieces together that they forget that when you build anything... you need a solid foundation to start with. The Buffalo Bills would be better suited to start building the team like the NY Jets did in 2006, instead of bringing in high priced free agent O linemen (that pissed off the pro bowl LT in Jason Peters), they should have built that O line thru the draft. Tell me you wouldn't love to have a Buffalo Bills team that could run the ball down the throats of the NE Patriots like the Baltimore Ravens did in that AFC wildcard game in New England a few years back. Thereby proving that 3 yards and a cloud of dust does still work in today's NFL, you simply have to have a decent QB to manage the game and not turn the ball over.Plus a dominate running attack will keep the ball out of the opposing QB's hands, which in itself is a great thing when you have face Tom Brady 2x a year In an earlier thread, it was determined that over the last 50 years, the Bills had used their first draft pick on a RB 10 different times. (Including nine first rounders.) They'd used their first draft pick on a DB ten different times (all ten in the first round). They'd used their first draft pick on OTs only twice (John Fina and Mike Williams). And not once over the last 50 years have the Bills used their first draft pick on a QB. (Jim Kelly was actually the second of the Bills' two first round picks in 1983; with a TE being the first.) The above paragraph goes a long way toward explaining why Bills fans are so used to seeing second- or third-rate QBs playing behind chopped liver offensive lines. (Of course, bad player evaluation played a role too, as we all know.) Obviously, if the Bills are going to devote more resources to the critical QB and OT positions, they're going to have to devote fewer draft day resources to other positions (specifically DB and RB). What can the Bills do to ween themselves from lavishing their best draft-day resources on RBs and DBs? I suggest the following: 1) Do not allow their DBs with the best combination of youth + proven experience to leave via free agency! That happened three point five times over the last decade! We lost Antoine Winfield, a shutdown corner. Then we lost Nate Clements, who was also a very good player. We followed that up by losing Jabari Greer! Now we're in the process of losing Donte Whitner. Of those four players, three were first round picks/the first Bills pick of the draft in which they were taken. As for Greer: the 11th overall pick was used on his intended replacement! If the Bills lock up their best DBs for the duration of their useful careers, they won't have to keep dumping so many early picks into DB positions. 2) Don't keep chasing upgrades at the RB position. At least not with early draft picks!! In the mid to late '90s the Bills had used a first round pick on Antowain Smith. In 2001, TD used a second round pick on Travis Henry, thinking Henry might provide an upgrade over Smith. Certainly he didn't offer enough of an upgrade to justify the use of a second round pick! Then in 2003 TD again chased an upgrade at the RB position by using his first round pick on Willis McGahee. McGahee didn't provide enough of an upgrade over Henry to justify the use of a first round pick. Then in 2007, Marv used the 12th overall pick on Marshawn Lynch; hoping to attain a significant upgrade over McGahee. Finally, in 2010, Nix used a first round pick on Spiller, in hopes of obtaining an upgrade over Lynch. Each and every use I've described of a first or second round pick on a RB has either a) turned out to be a mistake, or b) has yet to be decided (Spiller). The Bills should content themselves with later round picks and UDFAs for their RBs; while using their first and second round picks on other, more critical positions associated with longer careers. 3) Realize that it's better to have a good QB + good OL + bad DBs + bad RB than it is to have the reverse! If it's a choice between an OT and a DB or RB, the Bills should always choose the OT! Similarly, if there's a legitimate chance to get a franchise QB, the Bills should do that instead of pursuing some RB or DB. Taking Whitner over Cutler was flat-out ridiculous, and was characteristic of the outright stupidity with which this team has often been run! (As an aside, Cutler's put up some excellent numbers behind Chicago's chopped liver OL. This past season, he averaged 7.6 yards per attempt; as compared to 6.8 yards per attempt for Fitzpatricks' 2010 season.) If the Bills embrace the above three realizations, the mistakes which have plagued most of the last 50 years of this franchise can be reversed. It's about time this franchise started doing something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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