Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Research time. Pro-football reference. Draft finder, years 1995-2005 (give a promising player time to show what he's got and adjust to the NFL) Looked at 3 criteria: Career AV (approximate value), which is PFR's attempt to metric a players total contribution. pro bowl appearances, which is a common metric. years started for drafting team. I picked AV >44 by looking up the Career AV of 6 players I consider to be impact players, there is an element of subjectivity. For Example Dwan Edwards has CarAv of 20. Possible stars like Suh and Raji don't have enough playing years yet, which is why I ended 5 yrs ago. If you use a lower cutoff, the numbers change but conclusions don't. DL drafted in 1st round, positions 1-15: 39 overall. 56% (22 of 39) have CarAV >44 . 51% (20 of 39) went to the probowl. 66% (26 of 39) played >=5 years for the drafting team. 1st round, positions 15 to 32: 35 overall. 43% (15 of 35) have CarAV >44. 23% (8 of 35) went to the probowl. 68% (24 of 35) played >=5 years for the drafting team. 2nd round - all: 57 players drafted. 21% (15 of 35) CarAV>44. 16% 9 of 57 went to the probowl. 37% (21 of 57) played >=5 yr 3rd round - all: 52 players drafted. 12% (6 of 52) CarAV>44. 15% (8 of 52) probowl. 21% (11 of 52) played >=5 years 4rd through 7th: 249 players drafted. 4% (11 of 249) CarAV >44, 4% (11 of 249) probowl, 8% (20 of 249) played >=5 yr. What this says to me: 1. 1st 15 picks have at least even odds of producing an impact player (as judged by AV and PB nominations) 2. 2nd 15 picks have 2/3 chance of a solid contributor (long term starter), but lower chance of producing an impact player 3. Just like the odds of finding a star QB, the odds of finding an "impact player" and even a solid contributor drop from there. Based upon this analysis, I think if we try to really bring quality to our DL, take someone in the 1st or early 2nd. By drafting 3rd round or later, the odds thin out dramatically. So folks, realize if you say "hey, let's take a WR (or CB or QB)" you are saying "hey, let's thin out our odds of getting an impact player or even a solid starter on DL". The Bills must know that while Carrington and Troup might develop into solid players (and I hope they do), the odds of them becoming an "impact stud" are small and we still have big needs (literally) on DL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Generally, I think regardless of position, you'll find that the better players go early in the draft. The draft is hardly a perfect science, of course, but it isn't a total crap shoot (rolling dice) like some want to portray either. That's what makes the Bills futility in the draft all the more glaring. Just based on chance, they should find a really good player every 2 or 3 years. Instead the Bills find bust after bust after bust. To paraphrase someone, "Even the Raiders get it right once in a while. Now, don't say I said that." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Ah logistics and data crunchers, thank you. It has appeared from what little i have read that we are comparatively thick for picking at defensive lineman in this years draft class. Into the second and third even. That is the sole reason i think we could withstand a crazy Nix pick " waterbug, firefly, angry mosquito". But my choice is ..defensive front early and often. And i would not mind to give cinci or zona #3 if it gets us more opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Generally, I think regardless of position, you'll find that the better players go early in the draft. The draft is hardly a perfect science, of course, but it isn't a total crap shoot (rolling dice) like some want to portray either. Inarguable. Overall the argument "why waste a top 1st round pick on a (....) we can get them a dime a dozen in the later rounds" fails for any player position penciled into (...). Still, there are interesting patterns by position. For example, the odds of drafting a quality WR (or maybe RB seem to stay higher in the 2nd and 3rd round than the odds of drafting a DL. If a team thinks enough of an OL to draft him in the top 15, the chances are exceptionally high he will be a contributor (19 of 19) with a high CarAV and PB (15 of 19 and 12 of 19) That's what makes the Bills futility in the draft all the more glaring. Just based on chance, they should find a really good player every 2 or 3 years. Instead the Bills find bust after bust after bust. To paraphrase someone, "Even the Raiders get it right once in a while. Now, don't say I said that." Can't argue that. Ever since the days of Bill Polian where he excelled at pulling quality "sleepers" out of schools no one had heard of (example: Andre Reed - Kutztown State), the Bills seem to get "too cute" with the draft, trying to out-fox everyone and draft a "project player" with the "potential" to wow everyone instead of a solid high-value prospect with a solid several-year track record. It's like under Polian, someone in the Bills management chain got it fixed in their heads this was the path to glory. Except, we seem to be missing a key piece which made that strategy successful: the ability to correctly evaluate talent. And even back then, our success was driven by a handful of players who had drafted very high (Bennett, Conlan, Smith, Thomas, Kelly) It's really true the Bills would have done better over the last 10 years using, say, the average of 3 well-regarded mock drafts to make their picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 (edited) Excellent Work! I'd like to see the same analysis on a CB. Although the numbers will be skewed toured D-Line as CBs on average have a much shorter career and the special athletes at CB transition to safety to extend their careers. Edited February 12, 2011 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CookieG Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Use the Planet Theory to your advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Inarguable. Overall the argument "why waste a top 1st round pick on a (....) we can get them a dime a dozen in the later rounds" fails for any player position penciled into (...). Still, there are interesting patterns by position. For example, the odds of drafting a quality WR (or maybe RB seem to stay higher in the 2nd and 3rd round than the odds of drafting a DL. If a team thinks enough of an OL to draft him in the top 15, the chances are exceptionally high he will be a contributor (19 of 19) with a high CarAV and PB (15 of 19 and 12 of 19) Can't argue that. Ever since the days of Bill Polian where he excelled at pulling quality "sleepers" out of schools no one had heard of (example: Andre Reed - Kutztown State), the Bills seem to get "too cute" with the draft, trying to out-fox everyone and draft a "project player" with the "potential" to wow everyone instead of a solid high-value prospect with a solid several-year track record. It's like under Polian, someone in the Bills management chain got it fixed in their heads this was the path to glory. Except, we seem to be missing a key piece which made that strategy successful: the ability to correctly evaluate talent. And even back then, our success was driven by a handful of players who had drafted very high (Bennett, Conlan, Smith, Thomas, Kelly) It's really true the Bills would have done better over the last 10 years using, say, the average of 3 well-regarded mock drafts to make their picks. Well, we always have our Hall of Fame VP of College Scouting to lean on. "He just sights the targets in the cross hairs; he doesn't pull the trigger." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 Based on that analysis, Hopeful, I'd say you have entirely too much time on your hands! Get a hobby, do some volunteer work, or just go outside and play for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 hehe^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 12, 2011 Author Share Posted February 12, 2011 Based on that analysis, Hopeful, I'd say you have entirely too much time on your hands! Get a hobby, do some volunteer work, or just go outside and play for a few hours. Said to me by a chap with over eight thousand seven hundred posts? Pot, Meet Kettle! Option B: 1) pro-football-reference makes this kinda thing easy and fast when ya know whatcha doing 2) ya know whatcha doing when ya wrangles data for a living (which I does) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thoner7 Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 drake nevis, j jenkins, and mike blanc are all good lineman that are gonna be later round picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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