Offensive line or QB with first pick?

[Packerland Bills Fan]

The most important decision that any GM makes is on a QB. If you don't have an elite one you wont go anywhere unless you defense is extraordinary. However picking the wrong one means more years of mediocrity. If the scouting department thinks Clausen and Bradford are legitimate franchise QB's then take one if they're available. If not focus on the line.

 

Locker and Mallet may also factor in the thinking. If the Bills rate them higher than any of the QB's this year then waiting until next year becomes a better option. After the top 2 in this year's draft there are a lot of risky picks. Tebow is a major project. McCoy has questionable arm strength. A lot of first rounders fail to pan out but second rounders fail some 75% of the time. Who other then Drew Brees has gone to the Pro Bowl that was drafted in the 2nd in the last 10 years? I wouldn't be afraid to completely pass on a QB this year. I'm hoping they trade up to get an OT in the bottom of the first round even if they pick one at #9.

 

My draft board would look like this:

 

1A Bradford

1B Clausen

3 Okung

4 McClain

5 Bulaga

 

(Pro Football Weekly had Bulaga going #5 to KC in their mock draft in this week's issue. I like him better than Anthony Davis because of his toughness and work ethic. By April he might not be considered a reach at #9.)

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

C'mon.

So we have to fluke our way to the top? (Not including Elway is a bit disingenuous)

 

We need to raid supermarket aisles!

Sure there are lots of failed 1st rounders, but you know about those guys, you don't hear about all the supermarket baggers that don't win a Super Bowl, or the failed 2nd,3rd, 4th,5th etc.rounders, there are just hundreds of them.

 

As far as acquiring a guy, while I'm not opposed to it (who do you have in mind?), but it surely isn't better odds than drafting a first round QB. Again, many a QB has changed teams and become Todd Collins, or Billy Joe Hobert, you just don't hear the story.

 

Just pick a $%#ing 1st rd. QB and develop him, why all the backdoor philosophies?

The problem is that the fluke is picking the 1st rounder and then developing him. The simple fact is that this has succeeded in bringing an SB win once a decade. Instead the field of other methods of acquiring your QB capable of leading your team to an SB win is far more diverse than you describe (drafting a guy in the 1st and developing him is only one way of producing SB winners) and actually until recently with the exceptional wins of Manning and RoboQB this had not produced an SB winning pick since Dallas chose Aikman,

 

I am simply repeating this because I am not making this up.

 

The claim you are making of simply draft a QB in the 1st and develop him is wrong if you claim either this is the only way to do it or that its a simple thing to do.

 

In fact unless you are stone dead certain that Bradford, Clausen, Tebow or someone is Elway, your method seems quite unlikely to work unless some fluke happens.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

We have holes everywhere. Take the best player available. Hopefully we won't need a QB at 1 because we've already got Donovan McNabb or Kyle Orton locked up as our opening day starter in 2010.

 

Kyle Orton? C'mon!

[reddogblitz]

Kyle Orton? C'mon!

Yeah Kyle Orton. Have you watched him play? Are you aware that in the last 2 years he's thrown 39 TD and 5800 yards? Are you aware tht in 2005 when he was rookie and the Bears went 12-4, he started 15 of those games? Why don't you think he's good? Give me a real reason. And don't give me tired generalities like "noodle arm" or something. Point to something he's done that 's bad. He's not sexy, but can flat out play and win.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

The problem is that the fluke is picking the 1st rounder and then developing him. The simple fact is that this has succeeded in bringing an SB win once a decade. Instead the field of other methods of acquiring your QB capable of leading your team to an SB win is far more diverse than you describe (drafting a guy in the 1st and developing him is only one way of producing SB winners) and actually until recently with the exceptional wins of Manning and RoboQB this had not produced an SB winning pick since Dallas chose Aikman,

 

I am simply repeating this because I am not making this up.

 

The claim you are making of simply draft a QB in the 1st and develop him is wrong if you claim either this is the only way to do it or that its a simple thing to do.

 

In fact unless you are stone dead certain that Bradford, Clausen, Tebow or someone is Elway, your method seems quite unlikely to work unless some fluke happens.

 

????!

Wrong, it has worked for the majority of Super Bowl Winning teams (not to mention the greats that never won the Super Bowl....)

[bisonbrigade]

I do not want some other teams QB reject on the Bills. I wnat are own guy. It's a risk drafting a QB with the first pick, but you have to role dice.

[reddogblitz]

I do not want some other teams QB reject on the Bills. I wnat are own guy. It's a risk drafting a QB with the first pick, but you have to role dice.

Who says? Did NO roll the dice with Drew Brees? Did Arizona with Kurt Warner? Did Tampa Bay with Brad Johnson? Did Baltimore with Trent Dilfer? Did Seattle with Matt Hasselback? Did Minnesota with Brett Favre?

[bobobonators]

No, no no... everyone knows that rookie QBs have to start every game their rookie year. And if they don't get good protection that first year, they are guaranteed to flame out. I'm pretty sure Detroit has already given up on Matt Stafford, and it's all because they didn't put him behind a good o-line this year.

 

No, there's only 2 winning moves here:

 

1.) Go LT in the first round this year, RT in the first round next year, swing tackle in the first round in 2012, then draft a QB in 2013, and start winning big around 2015. Possibly as soon as 2014.

 

2.) Take a flyer on a mid-round QB every year, and given the <10% success rate on those guys, it should only take us 10 or 11 tries to find a Kyle Orton type. Super Bowl, here we come!

 

Look, no one is saying draft a QB in the first just for the sake of doing so. For example, if (when? I'm legitimately scared) the Bills draft Tebow at #9, I'll throw up. There's 2 QBs in this draft that rational people/scouts generally have first-round grades on. I doubt either one will last to #9, but if either does, he MUST be the pick. You can't just say you'll wait until the o-line is good, then draft a QB in the first round. Supply is very limited. Most years, there's either 2 or 3 QBs drafted in the first round. Sometimes one lasts to the late teens or early twenties, sometimes they're all gone around the top 10. When you have a chance at one, you have to take that chance.

 

A-!@#$ing-men

[Geno Smith's Arm]

The problem is that the fluke is picking the 1st rounder and then developing him. The simple fact is that this has succeeded in bringing an SB win once a decade. Instead the field of other methods of acquiring your QB capable of leading your team to an SB win is far more diverse than you describe (drafting a guy in the 1st and developing him is only one way of producing SB winners) and actually until recently with the exceptional wins of Manning and RoboQB this had not produced an SB winning pick since Dallas chose Aikman,

 

I am simply repeating this because I am not making this up.

 

The claim you are making of simply draft a QB in the 1st and develop him is wrong if you claim either this is the only way to do it or that its a simple thing to do.

In fact unless you are stone dead certain that Bradford, Clausen, Tebow or someone is Elway, your method seems quite unlikely to work unless some fluke happens.

 

 

I claimed NEITHER! I claim that is the BEST way to go about it, regardless of the lull between first rounder winning the Super Bowl, the first round is where you are MOST LIKELY to find a good QB, or for that matter ANY position.

 

(I know, you're gonna let us know that, "Actually, most of the best punters have been taken in the later rounds". Solid baby, S-O-L-I-D !).

[bobobonators]

The most important decision that any GM makes is on a QB. If you don't have an elite one you wont go anywhere unless you defense is extraordinary. However picking the wrong one means more years of mediocrity. If the scouting department thinks Clausen and Bradford are legitimate franchise QB's then take one if they're available. If not focus on the line.

 

Locker and Mallet may also factor in the thinking. If the Bills rate them higher than any of the QB's this year then waiting until next year becomes a better option. After the top 2 in this year's draft there are a lot of risky picks. Tebow is a major project. McCoy has questionable arm strength. A lot of first rounders fail to pan out but second rounders fail some 75% of the time. Who other then Drew Brees has gone to the Pro Bowl that was drafted in the 2nd in the last 10 years? I wouldn't be afraid to completely pass on a QB this year. I'm hoping they trade up to get an OT in the bottom of the first round even if they pick one at #9.

 

My draft board would look like this:

 

1A Bradford

1B Clausen

3 Okung

4 McClain

5 Bulaga

 

(Pro Football Weekly had Bulaga going #5 to KC in their mock draft in this week's issue. I like him better than Anthony Davis because of his toughness and work ethic. By April he might not be considered a reach at #9.)

 

Locker and Mallet will have 0 effect on this year's draft or any decision on who to draft at 9. There are WAYYY too many factors that can occur for the bills to think "hey, we may land locker next year, so lets pass on bradford/clausen"..no way.

 

btw, i would have those players in that order as well.

[reddogblitz]

I claimed NEITHER! I claim that is the BEST way to go about it, regardless of the lull between first rounder winning the Super Bowl, the first round is where you are MOST LIKELY to find a good QB, or for that matter ANY position.

 

(I know, you're gonna let us know that, "Actually, most of the best punters have been taken in the later rounds". Solid baby, S-O-L-I-D !).

In the last 5 SBs, there have been 7 1st rounders and 3 non first rounder. 5 of the first rounders were selected by the team in the SB. If you back 5 years before that it was 9 non first rounders and 1 first rounder (Donovan McNabb). So I guess the jury's kindof still out on this one.

[SKRAAPY]

Simple solution: trade for McNabb. 2-3 year contract. Draft the best available OT in the draft in both rounds 1 and 2. Defensive tackles and LB's for the rest of the draft. 2011, throw the kitchen sink to get Jake Locker..championship

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

the first round is where you are MOST LIKELY to find a good QB, or for that matter ANY position.

I agree that first rounders are likely to be the best QBs (well duh). I am saying that there are other methods which are better team building methods than drafting a player because other teams routinely do what the Bills have done and run the QBs out of town.

 

Why spend the painful timing losing while training your 1st round pick when there are other 1st round picks and other franchise QBs available in the numerous market places.

 

Add to this # the QBs who are UDFAs you can acquire who have proven that even non-drafted QBs can do the job, later picks, and there are a plethora of methods.

 

The method of picking a QB in the first has a long record of not winning the SB (and actually somewhat long gaps where neither SB QB met your first rounder whom you drafted and developed criteria) until the emergence of Manning and RoboQB.

 

The bottomline is who do you want to invest in specifically.

 

The potential 1st round QBs all have serious question marks which make them look like pretty risky at best and for the most part downright bad choices for the Bills to make.

 

Who specifically from Bradford, Clausen or Tebow do you advocate we take?

 

My sense is that none of them are worth the risk as players to reach up to get them if they go before #9 or seem like good prospects for development.

 

This team would likely be better off strenthening the OL (Buluga looks like the likely choice at #9 or McClain at OLB), In fact my preference would be to trade down but trades are really impossible to predict so most draft boards ignore them.

 

So who do you want, Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington or Akili Smith.

[bobobonators]

what the hell is the fascination with Jake Locker? The guy has done absolutely nothing in college football. And that's a FACT.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

I agree that first rounders are likely to be the best QBs (well duh). I am saying that there are other methods which are better team building methods than drafting a player because other teams routinely do what the Bills have done and run the QBs out of town.

 

Why spend the painful timing losing while training your 1st round pick when there are other 1st round picks and other franchise QBs available in the numerous market places.

 

Add to this # the QBs who are UDFAs you can acquire who have proven that even non-drafted QBs can do the job, later picks, and there are a plethora of methods.

 

The method of picking a QB in the first has a long record of not winning the SB (and actually somewhat long gaps where neither SB QB met your first rounder whom you drafted and developed criteria) until the emergence of Manning and RoboQB.

 

The bottomline is who do you want to invest in specifically.

 

The potential 1st round QBs all have serious question marks which make them look like pretty risky at best and for the most part downright bad choices for the Bills to make.

 

Who specifically from Bradford, Clausen or Tebow do you advocate we take?

 

My sense is that none of them are worth the risk as players to reach up to get them if they go before #9 or seem like good prospects for development.

 

This team would likely be better off strenthening the OL (Buluga looks like the likely choice at #9 or McClain at OLB), In fact my preference would be to trade down but trades are really impossible to predict so most draft boards ignore them.

 

So who do you want, Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington or Akili Smith.

 

I don't know enough about any of these guys. I would wait until they have been to the combine, and or tested by the scouts, interview,etc. I am not sure that ANY of them are worth a 1st rd. pick.

 

The line can be improved at the same time. Read the prior posts" (Mine and Bobos).

 

So who do you want, Billy Joe Hobert, Bruce Mathison, Gale Gilbert?

 

I want Peyton Manning, John Elway, Jim Kelly, Ben Rothlesberger.

 

Again, the Bills have only spent 2 1st picks on QB's. One was HOF, the other one sucked.

 

I think I have posted enough on this.

[Clippers of Nfl]

Why can't they just get a QB, let him sit for a season, and develop the line while the guys sits? Then you have both things improving without killing a Quarterback. Much more time efficient.

 

I don't think you know what your doing. You need a QB in development AS SOON AS POSSIBLE! It's gonna take some time anyway, and the line can come together in the meantime.

a qb in development??? thats our loser mentality that gets us nowhere.

 

acquire a talented qb through fa or trade for one.

 

1st pick still must go to o line.

 

by the way i do know what im doing. predicted saints and colts. not lying either.

picked saints over cards. colts over ravens. the only game i was wrong this postseason has been jets/sandiego (their oc sucked with his play calling)

[Clippers of Nfl]

They didn't? They were among the most sacked QBs in the NFL the past 2 years---more than the Bills QBs. Lets be real here. Their pass protection was as bad if not worse many times than the Bills. Roethlesberger and Rodgers weer tied for the NFL lead with 50 sacks each. The Bills trio had 46 sacks total. So yes, their lines were as bad if not worse at protecting their QBs as the Bills were and both finished with QB ratings of over 100 on the year(100.5 for Roethlesberger and 103.2 for Rodgers)

 

Lets stop making excuses and start realizing that QBs are able to play well with poor offensive lines.

can someone repeat after me, "and with the first pick 2009 the lions select....."

[Clippers of Nfl]

completely 100% agree... OL in 1st or 2nd and either DE/DT/LB with the other. In addition - Lefeuver in 3rd is fine.

 

If we draft Tebow in 1st or sign Vick as qb, then the following line will suffice, due to them being lefties:

LT - Levitre, LG - Wood, C- Hangartner, RG - Incognito, RT - _____ (not bell or butler)

depth - Bell, Butler, Simmons

 

if our QB is McNabb or TE then this wouldn't work being that I don't think Levitre would hold up all year against opposing teams best pass rushers. in this draft scenario we then take OL in first round and Lefeuver in the 3rd to groom behind McNabb or Trent Part Deux.

thanks.

[Clippers of Nfl]

No, no no... everyone knows that rookie QBs have to start every game their rookie year. And if they don't get good protection that first year, they are guaranteed to flame out. I'm pretty sure Detroit has already given up on Matt Stafford, and it's all because they didn't put him behind a good o-line this year.

 

No, there's only 2 winning moves here:

 

1.) Go LT in the first round this year, RT in the first round next year, swing tackle in the first round in 2012, then draft a QB in 2013, and start winning big around 2015. Possibly as soon as 2014.

 

2.) Take a flyer on a mid-round QB every year, and given the <10% success rate on those guys, it should only take us 10 or 11 tries to find a Kyle Orton type. Super Bowl, here we come!

 

Look, no one is saying draft a QB in the first just for the sake of doing so. For example, if (when? I'm legitimately scared) the Bills draft Tebow at #9, I'll throw up. There's 2 QBs in this draft that rational people/scouts generally have first-round grades on. I doubt either one will last to #9, but if either does, he MUST be the pick. You can't just say you'll wait until the o-line is good, then draft a QB in the first round. Supply is very limited. Most years, there's either 2 or 3 QBs drafted in the first round. Sometimes one lasts to the late teens or early twenties, sometimes they're all gone around the top 10. When you have a chance at one, you have to take that chance.

i love this post except the start winning big in 2015....

 

i would love to know the list of available fa qbs THIS YEAR. but screw the 1 year t.o. contract crap.

[thebandit27]

pitt and greenbay also had top ten rushing attacks...i think with pierce prob on his way out of ny we trade down to the giants 15th pick and pick up their 2nd round pick and draft bulaga at 15 and get a mlb(spikes is a dream) in the 2nd and a d tackle with the giants pick

 

First off, that's totally false:

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tab...mp;d-447263-n=1

 

- GB ranked 14th in the NFL in rushing, totalling 117.8 ypg

- Buffalo ranked 16th in the NFL in rushing, totalling 116.7 ypg (a mere 1.1 ypg less than GB)

- Pittsburgh ranked 19th in the NFL in rushing, totalling 112.1 ypg

 

And to boot, Buffalo averaged 4.4 yards-per-carry, versus 4.2 for Pittsburgh and 4.3 for Green Bay.

 

I doubt that the teams' respective running games made a big difference in QB play.

 

It's the QB, not the OL.

 

Secondly, you can't just trade down whenever you want to, somebody else has to trade up. The only way that happens is if a QB falls to #9, and that's not bloody likely. If the team wants Bulaga, they better take him at 9, because he'll be gone in the top 15 without a doubt.

 

Third, the Giants aren't going to give up a 2nd round pick just to move up and pick a MLB...most quality organizations believe in building through the draft, so they aren't going to part with picks easily. Furthermore, it's highly likely that they can get a MLB like Spikes at 15, so why bother to try to move up?