Cash
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Posts posted by Cash
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20 hours ago, Beck Water said:
Trevor Lawrence does kind of look like Mark Arm, doesn't he?
But I think he looks more like a horse.
I don’t know why James Cameron spends all that money on CGI for the Avatar movies when he could just paint Trevor Lawrence blue. -
8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
But I'm not sure McDermott being in a make-or-break season is a reality. Nothing that the Bills have done or said this off-season leads me to believe that is the case. I still think they'd have to miss the playoffs for there to be a change.
Yeah, especially given the soft rebuild/cap reset this year. From a managerial perspective, you don’t give a guy less resources (cap space) and then declare it a make or break year.-
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Player: Rob Johnson. Eternally wincing in pain. Just a bummer to watch, and very frustrating, too.
Coach: I’ll go with OL coach Carl Mauck. Was straight out of central casting for “old school fat OL coach who yells a lot”, so many fans and broadcasters highlighted him for a while. But those Olines sucked, and his only response was to scowl and scream at them. I was over it after a few games.
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Thanks for posting this! I’d probably add Ray Davis to the mix as well - it’s pretty fair to expect a 4th round RB to be a plus player as a rookie.
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12 hours ago, Beck Water said:
He developed enough ability to run routes while with the Bills to not be an automatic "tell" for "here comes that jet sweep" and to fill in pretty well as a backup slot receiver, but it was one of the roster judgement errors of 2022 to believe that McKenzie could become a full time slot (and that Davis could take over as a full time "X" from Brown/Sanders). Although, to do Beane justice, they started the season with Crowder and platooned him at slot with McKenzie until Crowder broke his leg. So it was likely not their intent to count in McKenzie as the full time slot.
Right. I’m not sure why everyone forgets that. I guess because Crowder got hurt so early? Poor planning on Beane’s part not to know about the broken leg in advance.
I’m pretty sure the plan for the slot that year was a platoon of McCrowder. McKenzie still doing the gadget stuff that he’d been so effective at in the past, plus playing more traditional slot snaps. Crowder would’ve been in on most 3rd downs, and would’ve played a role much more akin to the Dr. Cole Beasley role. McKenzie was never going to be that elite zone beater who can consistently move the chains, and I don’t think the Bills were planning on that.
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17 hours ago, Einstein said:
Thats just a terrible reason to take a timeout.The challenge is a timeout if you lose. Just challenge it.
The only risk is running out of challenges - but go ahead and take a guess at how many times McDermott has had 2 challenges in one game in his entire 7 year Bills career.
I'll guess: 1 time. What's the answer?
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On 5/8/2024 at 10:14 AM, Back2Buff said:
Exactly, it was even on the trade value chart, which means the Bills shouldn't have done it. It should have taken a massive overpay to make the trade.
There was an
analytics guyidiot after the trade that said the net points the Bills got in this trade, was the 4th worst ever. These draft trades very rarely end up equal.FTFY - see below
On 5/8/2024 at 10:47 AM, HappyDays said:I don't think Coleman was "our guy" but he was definitely one of a cluster of guys that we had graded as high 2nd rounders. For all the talk of the WR class there were only four that were seen as consensus 1st rounders. I always thought trading back into the 2nd and recouping a 3rd in the process, then taking the best WR available, was the best possible outcome.
If there's anything to take away from this Embedded video it's that GMs including Beane don't have a strict vertical board they're following where they're just ticking off names one after the other and taking the absolute BPA when it's their turn. They are grouping guys into tiers and taking someone from their Best Available Tier (BAT?) who also fills a need.
I've always thought the mainstream idea of "BPA" was ridiculous. The idea appears to be that 1.) all players are ranked in a straight line by draft grade, 2.) all players have different draft grades, and 3.) teams either do or ought to draft the top guy on the list no matter what. Feeding into that, I've seen scouting sites that try to give guys numerical grades with 2 decimals, like a 6.43 vs a 6.42. I'm sorry, but just because you went to the hundreths place doesn't mean you have any idea which of those guys is the better prospect.
It makes a lot more sense to me to group players by tier, with more macro grading. The Bills definitely have a "first round grade", and I'm sure they have an internal definition of what that means. (Maybe different definitions by position?) So guys who are in the same vicinity of talent get grouped together. Within that tier you might have some level of ranking - maybe one of the guys looks like a tremendous culture fit, so you'd rather have him, that sort of thing. But to think that the board is a straight ranking from #1 to #255, AND that there's an appreciable difference between #55 and #56? Nutso IMO.
On 5/8/2024 at 12:39 PM, Back2Buff said:Yeah, this guy Seth Walder is dumb. He's a stupid man! Here's an analogy of what happened: Let's say the Bills were holding a James Cook rookie card that's worth $10. The Chiefs call up and offer $10.50 for the card, and the Bills accept. Seth then jumps in and decries, "THE BILLS ONLY GOT AN EXTRA FIFTY CENTS!!! GREAT BARGAIN FOR THE CHIEFS!" Basically he's saying the Chiefs overpayed by an extra 6th round pick over what a fair price would've been, and that's somehow very cheap. Whereas most normal human beings would think paying LESS than a fair price would be cheap.
The only way that what Seth Walder is saying would make sense is if 99% of trade-ups were significant overpays on the trade chart. But modern charts like the Rich Hill chart use actual (recent) trades to calibrate pick values, so it would only work on the old Jimmy Johnson chart or something like that. And teams haven't used that chart for years, so it's irrelevant.
In truth, I think Walder is stupid enough to somehow equate the price over asking (an extra 6th-round pick equivalent) with the total price. It's also possible that he's a disingenous weasel who knows how misleading the above tweets are, but tweeted them anyway. But I find it's good to take people at face value until they prove otherwise, and I also tend to stick by Hanlon's Razor - "never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by stupidity".
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5 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:
At one time that was sometimes your only option and if you ever had to do it, the person calling it is super critical to paint the picture.....it can be enjoyable on some level. But given the choice, everyone picks TV for obvious reasons and today you can always have that choice.
Yeah, obviously TV is better than radio for experiencing a football game, but football (and baseball) has enough down time that a good announcer can paint a picture for you. When I was a kid, my family's friend group would rotate who hosted for the Bills game every week, and we usually ran late. I listened to Van Miller calling a lot of first quarters, and it was great!
Murphy (understandably) never got to Van Miller's level, but he did a real solid job. Very good radio voice and cadence, which is probably the #1 thing. Best wishes to Murphy and his family.
I've yet to hear any of Chris Brown's play-by-play, but I can't imagine it's any good. As others have pointed out on this thread, he doesn't have the voice for it. My vote goes to an outside hire for this one.
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On 5/3/2024 at 9:23 PM, TBBills Fan said:
In some interview I've seen or heard recently, he casually mentioned Hyde in reference to finding out "what he is gonna do".
Sounds like the door is open, and its way and see to how Hyde feels most likely.
The best reporters I follow all say pretty confidently that Hyde hasn’t decided what to do yet, and that if he decides to play there’s probably a roster spot waiting for him. (They also think Hyde probably makes an announcement at his charity softball game.)If he decides his health isn’t worth the risk of an NFL season, but isn’t quite ready to step away from the game, the PS could be a win-win.
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12 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:
My money with Hyde is he returns late in the season on the practice squad and they are basically expecting this and doing him a solid.
I’ve been thinking about this as well. No idea if Hyde would be up for it, but if I was McBeane, I’d for sure give Hyde the option of a PS spot. Very low injury risk, while still having him there to mentor Bishop and the other guys. I like this option better than hiring him as an assistant coach, because there’s inherently a divide between coaches and players.-
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Bummer! Was really hoping we’d get him. Especially at that price.
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2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Yeah Cook is just so-so as a decision maker after the handoff. It's hit and miss. That's instinct to me but also a function of intelligence/preparedness. He's not CJ Spiller level unprepared.......CJ appeared to just make a random decision where to run the ball at the handoff rather than know the play call, read the defense and know ahead of time where the hole should be. He was a complete dunce. Fred Jackson was the opposite and that made him a decisive runner. Cook's game is speed/quickness and not a lot else. Lousy in pass pro too.
Ah, gotcha. “Take my word for it.” I’ll pass.-
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30 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Beane is gradually getting better at not wasting draft capital on RB's. Hopefully next time it will be a 5th rounder, then the next a 6th etc..
I think Davis is more than capable of being good in a Josh Allen offense that leaves defense's susceptible to the run. Wouldn't be a stretch for him to be better than James Cook whose instincts, toughness and hands leave a lot to be desired.
But generally speaking these guys like Davis with 700-800 touches already coming into the league tend to be due for injury problems due to wear and tear. See Breece Hall and Etienne for higher profile recent picks who immediately blew a tire after heavy-use NCAAF careers.
Interesting, because I’ve read the opposite: that high-usage guys in college tend to be high-usage guys in the NFL. (Until they eventually break down.)Also, regarding Cook: Totally get the hands complaint, but where are the other two coming from? Especially instincts - any plays stand out where he had bad instincts?
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6 hours ago, Logic said:
Thanks. The only thing with that is...
Is he a head case? Did thing get bad with the Saints in part because he himself is difficult on some way?
I genuinely don't know the answer, I'm just asking because it seems like the Bills are very purposefully trying to reset their locker room a little bit. They avoided any kind of problem children in free agency or the draft and went heavy on the "leaders and choir boys". After the Diggs situation the past couple years, I wonder if they'd want to be adding anyone who has even a whiff of being difficult or acting like a prima donna at all.
He wasn’t, until he was. But just like Diggs, it’s not crazy to think he’ll be on his best behavior on a one year deal with a new team. -
2 hours ago, Logic said:
Has anyone checked on the OP?
His post stopped midway through.
Respectfully, I think Michael Thomas is alllll the way cooked.
I read an article last year about how the Saints were just doing absolutely everything to help him return to form. They were patient with him, they had him on a very specific and detailed recovery regimen, gave him opportunity after opportunity, etc...and he just...can't move any more. He can't play.
He hasn't posted more than 500 yards receiving since 2019.
I know he was dynamic in his heyday, and I know the "name" of Michael Thomas is appealing. But...the actual player that's attached to that name is all the way done, I think.
I won't be surprised if he never plays another down in the NFL.
FWIW, I watch a lot of Saints games, and he looked pretty good when the ball went his way last year. That didn’t happen much, obviously. Injuries are a real problem for Thomas. But if we think the Diggs/Bills relationship was bad, it’s got nothing on Saints/Thomas. Imagine he didn’t trade Diggs, and he sat out the next 2 years with a variety of injuries, then came back to play one last year. That’s about where Thomas was last year.
I’d be willing to give him a no-risk shot.
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2 hours ago, finn said:
We should have a thread on all the posting tics that drive us crazy. Me, I cringe at the use of "compliment" instead of "complement" (e.g., "Shakir compliments Coleman beautifully") and "zero chance," as in "There is zero chance this draft will help the Bills next year."
I, too, have spoken. 😀
Shakir is a super nice guy. He probably *does* compliment Coleman beautifully.-
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3 hours ago, Logic said:
Basic misuse or misunderstanding of phrases is the one that always gets me.
For all intensive purposes.
Saying "in lieu of" instead of "in light of".
I once knew someone who thought prima donna was "pre-madonna".
But saying "I seen" instead of "I saw" is the one that seems most common and which might bother me the most.
Me too! She showed me an instagram post declaring that her cat would eventually become Madonna. It blew my mind!-
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17 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:
I agree with your comments re WRs, provided that it won't be for more than $3M.
I disagree with the bolded though. We can't use decent chunk of it, if by "chunk" you mean more than $5M. We will need cap space for signing rookies, 52/53 player, practice squad a keep some space for in season moves. That is total of $8-10M or so.
That's more or less what I meant by "chunk", yeah. The idea being that we have some money left over after accounting for rookies, all 53 on the roster, and practice squad. The Bills could elect to save all of that money for in-season signings or trades, or they could spend some or most of it. (Can't spend all of it, because you do have to leave some in case an AJ Klein situation happens.) I'd be suprised if they don't spend at least a significant portion of what they have available to spend. And notably, they could lay out more actual money than they have cap space, if they're willing to do a deal with void years. That's the only way they'd be able to sign OBJ, because I can't see him taking $5mil or less.
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21 minutes ago, Logic said:
I'm sure this is fine....
I'm not thrilled about it either, but in my experience every analytical metric touted as a be all, end all for anything usually winds up not holding up to scrutiny. Either because of an arbitrary cutoff (The Curse of 370), lack of sufficient sample size, or poor and/or biased interpretation by the analyst. So I see no reason to sweat it.
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In order of my preference:
- Odell Beckham Jr - His last 2 stops have been highly successful (except for the injuries) as a mercenary receiver. Dude will be an injury risk for the rest of his career I think, but he can still play. And it's hard to go wrong with a guy who likely would've won a Super Bowl MVP if he didn't get hurt. I would have no problem with him mentoring Coleman, also. This is the only guy worth spending the Tre White money on, IMO.
- DJ Chark - I liked him a lot coming into the draft, and he did have some early production in Jacksonville. Size/speed guy who hasn't fully put it together, but also hasn't played with a QB nearly as good as Allen.
- Michael Thomas - His injury history makes Beckham look like Cal Ripken Jr. I don't think he'll ever play a full season again. But he's a guy who has been ELITE, and he showed some real flashes of his old self at times last season. He also disappeared a lot last season, but I'm not sure how much of that was because his relationship with the Saints was completely broken a couple years ago. On a 1 year deal, could he be both healthy and fully bought in?
Gallup was the only other guy that interested me, and according to this thread he's off the market. 1 year, $3 million is about what I'd offer Chark or Thomas. Beckham will ask for (and get) significantly more than that.
No matter what, I'll be super interested to see how the Bills spend the June 1st money. I'll be shocked if they don't sign someone with a decent chunk of it. But they could split it on maybe 2 Gallup-level signings, or put it all towards a bigger Beckham or Leonard Floyd-style signing, maybe with the help of void years. I think who they DON'T sign will be just as telling as who they do.
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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Larry Fitz ran 4.47 at his pro day. He didn't run at the combine.
Yeah the big guys who also run fast and also can run routes usually don't go later than 5. Fitz and Megatron are the two that come to mind. Randy Moss would've been a top 5 pick if not for attitude concerns, and even with them should've gone top 10 for sure.
But there's a very solid history of big guys who don't run fast, but can run routes going in the 2nd or later and turning out pretty good! Jerry Rice is obviously the Platinum Standard, and Anquan Boldin also jumps out on that front.
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Pegula is "buying the dip." We spent a ton of cash to go mostly all-in the last couple years. Didn't work, and now we're taking the cap medicine for 1 year. Pretty sure the expectation in 2025 will be very high.
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a) Not really? Just in the sense that you also need to pay him, and I don't think he's a good enough fit for the Bills to justify paying him what he's worth.
b) Not much, because again, you also have to pay him. I like trading Day 3 picks for vets, and I like spending high picks on impact players, and I don't mind paying big free agency bucks to impact players. But I don't like trading valuable picks for the right to back up the Brinks truck. Sometimes it's worth it, like with the Diggs trade, but most of the time it's not.
OTAs 6/4
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Not quite the same, but I'm also reminded of some clip from Sammy Watkins' first training camp that a bunch of posters were creaming their jeans over. In the clip, Watkins put on a sick move to be sure, but it was against some UDFA CB who was like 14th on the depth chart. I.e., not an NFL player.