4, not 14.
And wargames, not intelligence.
And the results of wargames may or may not become dated in 4 years. Depends on the wargame.
And wargames can be notoriously unreliable, as well. Often, when one is run, it's biased by one's preconceived notions (e.g. in the Japanese wargames before Midway, the referees would discard "unrealistic" results - such as the Japanese carrier force being sunk in its entirety - on the grounds of "Oh, that could never happen."). Reality has a very nasty way of biting theory in the ass on not infrequent occasions.