mannc
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Posts posted by mannc
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i've not heard that term before. Doesn't make much sense.Yards per Catch per pass is the same thing.
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I tend to agree with you. I think YPA is the single most meaningful stat, and I don't really care how far the ball travels in the air. Yards are yards.To add to my earlier post I am not saying take credit off Tyrod for his deep balls. I am saying I don't agree with the methodology because devaluing perfectly thrown balls because they are not thrown far is nonsensical to me.
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I assume you meant to say Yards After Catch per Reception. Otherwise, your post is blatant misinformation.New England and Atlanta had the highest Yards Per Catch per pass in the league and met in the Superbowl. Tyrod was bottom 2 in the NFL.
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I'm sorry, but that is a bizarre argument.If you call that evidence, I suggest you are very gullible.
That guy's analysis is completely flawed as it does not account for the fact that many teams do not try to exploit the other team's mistakes - for example - not every coach tries to throw for a touchdown immediately following an interception. And even the coaches who do it some times, don't necessarily do it every time. And some coaches almost never do it (ex: most - if not all? - of the Bills coaches over the last 15 years). You can't measure it accurately if you don't account for that. And that guy didn't account for that at all. He even admitted that he neglected to account for some momentum changing situations. In other words his math is complete and total bunk. It is entirely useless.
Did you even read the article? It is evidence and it's hardly useless. The fact that not all factors are accounted for doesn't make it "bunk". (The author links to other studies that come to the same conclusion.)
What is "bunk" is your totally unproven notion that "trying to throw for a touchdown immediately after an interception" somehow maximizes or improves a team's outcome.
How about this: Can you explain how this concept of "momentum" should affect a coach's decision whether to kick or go for a touchdown on 4th and goal from the 2? Or whether to punt on 4th and 4 from the opponent's 45 yard line? If not, then I submit that momentum is entirely meaningless, even if it is a real thing.
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You could not be more wrong. http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2013/11/momentum-1.html?m=1I liked your posts until you crapped on "momentum". It is real. Anyone who doesn't think so probably never played competitive sports. The word "momentum" can be substituted for "mental mindset" or "confidence" and yes it absolutely matters.
Momentum is the reason why an offense can step on the gas and score a touchdown quickly after the other team makes a mistake. (at least the good teams who exploit it - a.k.a - the Patriots) It really does exist. If a coach doesn't believe in it and doesn't exploit it, then he is leaving plays on the field that likely could have been made. It is one of the finer things about sports that can help separate winners from wannabe's.
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I think this is true, but I see some evidence that, with McDermott, it is more than empty rhetoric. As MAJ Bobby pointed out, the Bills' top three draft picks this year were all extremely highly rated by PFF and other analytics-focused sources.I think the way the question was asked to McDermott, any NFL coach would say, "Yes, I like to be aggressive." The word aggressive is the opposite of passive and NFL coaches aren't going to say they are passive as it doesn't sound manly. Remember Gregg Williams and making them defend every inch of the field?!
We won't know for sure until the real games start.
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I hate to burst your bubble, but the "momentum" argument, as a reason to ignore statistical evidence, has been pretty thoroughly disproven. It is utter nonsense.'Game situation' is very important, but also it's about, imho, which team has 'momentum', and how much that will change, depending on the success, or not, of 'going for it'.
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Sorry, I meant to say I am a little more optimistic than you are that it will be scenario number 2.I am very confident it will be the first scenario. I'd put the chances of A at 75% and then split the difference between B and C.
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I am hoping for competent game management, as well. That alone could result in two more wins. A reluctance to punt (or kick FGs) on 4th and short would be a bonus...Absolutely.
The dumb penaltys and confusion are sure to be gone.... Some mental toughness should be evident as well.
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I think that pretty well covers it, but I'm a little more optimistic than you are that we will be closer to scenario 1 than to the other two.I suppose I'd ask what plays well means John. I see 3 possible scenarios:
A - The most likely - Tyrod is pretty much the Quarterback we have seen so far and plays reasonably well as we end around .500. In my mind in that scenario the Bills keep Tyrod for the 2nd year of his contract even at the higher salary and draft a Quarterback in round 1. Tyrod starts 2018 as the starter and probably reliquinshes to the rookie at some point and is a FA in 2019.
B - Tyrod hits it out of the park in 2017, throws for more yards, more touchdowns, a few more picks but wins the Bills games frequently. In that scenario I think the Bills try and extend him and don't take a Quarterback in round 1 and whether they take one in rounds 2 and 3 depends on how much they like Peterman.
C - Tyrod regresses in the new offense when the run game doesn't click and he is forced to try and win more games in his arm. In that scenario I think the Bills bench him wih 5 or 6 games left cut ties at the end of 2017 swallow the cap hit and draft a Quarterback in round 1 who competes with Peterman to start in 2018.
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I don't completely agree with what you say, but I do agree that it's a reasonable way to look at it. I doubt that's how the Bills are looking at him.
It's only another opinion, but Peter King said on the John Murphy show that he expects the Bills are using this season to decide whether Taylor is the long-term answer. That's what I think is happening.
Agreed. As I have said before, Taylor's is not a "bridge QB" contract, but rather, a "prove it" deal. Given his performance the past two years, this is an entirely reasonable approach. Taylor has performed far better, for example, than Blake Bortles, who apparently is being given a fourth year to prove himself in Jacksonville.
Also, contrary to what JohnC and some others have said, the Bills have not been ignoring the QB position. As I recall, they have drafted a QB in each of the last two drafts. History shows that using a first round pick (or two) is far from the only way to find a long-term answer at QB.
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I'm sure in his four years as a starter at LSU, White never went up against NFL-caliber athletes.hahaha! such a blind rage comment from you...they call it ROOKIE CAMP for something, who do you want them to be matched up with?...hahaha!
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The poster didn't present his side very well but his stance on this issue has some merit.
Should a team draft first round defensive backs? Certainly, just as soon as said team has a very good quarterback, a deep, solid OL, and top pass rushing defensive ends, and only then if they feel that a particular db is the bpa.
Are you telling me that you cannot see that draft picks such as Whitner, Gilmore and McKelvin have seriously injured this franchise? Is that what you think? It started before this too. When Thurman, Kelly, Bruce, and Reed were getting old, Levy and co. were busy drafting first round defensive backs. This was the beginning of the mess we are in and it has not changed no matter who is in charge.
Tell me, what makes drafting the 5th or 6th rated corner this year any different? The 2018 first round pick? Sure, that makes this pick more palatable, but odds are this pick will be used on another defensive back or a running back because this is what the Bills do. That and lose football games.
There is good news. We got rid of Whaley and Rex. If these guys were in charge for 10 years we would lose for 10 years. Lets hope that the new crew will learn from the idiotic, inexcusable mistakes of the past and know how to properly build an NFL football team.
I don't believe the bolded is correct. Great cornerbacks are every bit as essential as offensive and defensive linemen. That is borne out by the salaries the best ones are paid and the fact that 20 CBs have been drafted in the first round in the past four drafts. I don't believe good teams can afford to operate the way you suggest--they are always looking for the best available player, although need certainly is part of the equation.
It's true that the Bills have had some lousy DB picks in the first round--Whitner is the one that stands out, and McKelvin wasn't a great pick either, especially when Ryan Clady was available with the next pick. (Go back and look at that 2008 first round--littered with busts, at pretty much every position.) But that was a decade, and at least two front offices, ago. I totally agree with you regarding using first round picks on RBs, but the CJ Spiller pick was eight years ago and the Bills haven't used a high pick on RB since then. So that's not "what the Bills do".
Were you in favor of franchising Gilmore, or extending him for more than the Pats offered him? If not, how can you really argue with the 3D White pick? How badly do you think the Bills' defense would be shredded this season with Seymore and Darby as their top two CBs? White was extremely productive at the highest level of CFB, a four-year starter and team captain at LSU, with a clean medical history. His bust factor is very low and it's likely he will step right in and play at a pretty high level. And he's a very good punt returner, which is also a need. I have to be honest, I probably would have preferred Njoku or Taco Charlton at that spot, but I've got no problem with what the Bills did, especially while acquiring the extra first next year.
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a typical, non-responsive, content-free post, with some name calling thrown in for good measure. Your premise--that good teams don't use first round picks on CBs--was demolished, and you have no response, except to point to the fact that the Browns pay one of their (excellent) CBs a lot of money. Oh, and then you tell us that you just KNOW the Bills new coach is no good, before he has coached a single NFL game. Pathetic.Typical homer, sock-puppet, rhetoric...Joe Hayden Helped the Browns get to the playoffs about as much as Gilmore helped us... Cornerback is a need, yes... QB, TE, WR, LT, are ALL NECESSITIES... I had a modest amount of hope for McDonefor when he got the job... 85% of which evaporated when we took White @ 27... LOUSY trade-down... Wash, rinse, dry, -repeat.
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John, no offense, but what RETARD, is looking at the Bronco's and Ravens thinking they've had success because of the CORNERBACKS they've drafted? -PLEASE show me who that guy is so I can have him committed...
Where is our effing Demariyus Thomas?
Where is our effing Emmanuel Sanders?
Where is our effing Ryan Clady?
Where is our effing Von Miller?
Where is our effing Joe Flacco?
" " Dennis Pitta
" " Todd Heap
" " Anquan Boldin
We could be literally here all frickin' day....
The teams you describe draft the best available contributors, and THEN pursue the best in FA... They don't just draft some kid they "like" then scrape some guys together to fill holes... They're about WINNING GAMES!
Unless I'm wrong The Broncos have taken Just one first round CB in the last ten years -And before anyone asks -Yes, I know Emmanuel Sanders, and Dennis Pitta weren't a first round picks.... I threw those in as examples of how BADLY we've drafted in general.
What an offensive, know-nothing post. The notion that, in a passing league, cornerback is not a premium position is easily one of the more laughable arguments I've seen on this board. Five CBs have been taken in the first round in each of the last four drafts, including one by the Ravens (who you apparently worship) this year. As further evidence of the position's value, look at the contracts recently signed by, among others, Patrick Peterson, Joe Hayden, Josh Norman, Stephon Gilmore, etc...
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Exactly....so what?.....
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People were saying that Leroi said that the plan was to go after a QB next year, too. I haven't been here that long but Leroi has been dead on with almost all the information I've seen him share. From what I can gather, he works for the Bills.
None of us know what the plan is for sure. Plan's tend to be fluid anyway. Maybe Peterman or Cardale or Tyrod grab the starting job by the horns this season and never let go (however unlikely that is).
The Bills did put a lot of effort into scouting the available QBs, and they did still take a shot at a QB in this draft, they didn't just ignore the position. They obviously felt that none were worth the #10 pick (although I read here yesterday that they likely would have drafted Trubisky had he been there at 10, but refused to sell the farm for him). But at least they are aware that QB is a need and are putting in the time to evaluate the prospects. None of us control the Bills or what they do. All we can do is sit back and hope they get it right. Endlessly crusading for a QB that was already drafted by another team does no good (not referring to you specifically, just saying).
As I've also said before, the Chiefs were simply in a different position than the Bills were this year. Andy Reid and John Dorsey have spent the past 4 years building up that team and not drafting any QBs (except for one 5th round pick in 4 years...).
They were in a position where the last big need they had to put them over the top was at the QB position. Reid and Dorsey also have quite a lot of job security and can afford to take a gamble on a project QB at 10. They were also bringing that project QB into a much better position than what he would have been in with the Bills. They have a much stronger team to surround him with.
The Bills were not in that same position.
Excellent and highly rational post.
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Harrington was bad, but somehow he eeked out 10 years in the NFL. He was also lucky enough to get drafted high, before the current rookie salary scale. He's sittin' pretty right now.When I learned Joey could play piano is when I knew he would be a bust.
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Jeff already knows that McDermott will fail, before he's coached his first game; Jeff says he missed on a quarterback. Jeff also knows that Tyrod is no good and can never improve, and that Peterman and Cardale Jones suck. We might as well not even watch the Bills this year.Beane has coaching experience?
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OR
He will bust and the bills will be laughing all the way to the bank with that 1st rounder they picked up.
Or Mahomes will be good and (1) Tyrod will continue to improve, (2) the Bills will grab an excellent QB in next years draft or (3) Cardale or Peterman will turn out to be a good NFL QB. If any of those three things happens, then Jeff and Billsareback will have been wrong, regardless how good Mahomes turns out to be.
Jeff...you really seem like a decent guy. Are you sure you want to hitch yourself to the billsareback wagon?
Too late...
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You forgot Cardale...1. Mahomes is NOT on Buffalo's roster.
2.Watson is NOT on Buffalo's roster.
3.Trubusky is NOT on Buffalo's roster.
4. Webb is NOT on Buffalo's roster.
5. TT, Yates, Peterman and Woodrum ARE on Buffalo's roster.
..find ONE in #5 that can process/read the field in time allotted and hit OPEN receivers, be it WR or TE......what the hell are the other choices?...numbers 1-4 are done deals unless you want to go azz backward to whine...Jesus......
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So Tre'davious White is a bust? I must have slept through the season.I'm talking about lame 1st round picks... This is a Tre'davious White thread.
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When did I say they were?He did serve in the Navy. He then became one of the all-time NBA greats. The 2 are not mutually exclusive.
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So are you saying he served?David Robinson was 24 in his rookie year
PFF:Taylor undervalued QB.
in The Stadium Wall Archives
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