mannc
-
Posts
18,446 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by mannc
-
-
And I'm not asking this to be condescending, I'm legitimately asking: did you watch the 1992 comeback win?? If you did, fair enough once again we disagree - if you did not, then you should watch it from start to finish. Because I can tell you, the momentum swing in that game was entirely real and relevant. Now, could it simply be the psychological manner in which momentum manifests itself into confidence - of course - but it doesn't change the significant at all. You'll tell me it's one game, but seeing the Bills all these years on the reverse side of that pendulum, doesn't negate it's truth either - just the taste is a bit saltier.
Yes, I watched that game start to finish in 1992 and I've watched it several times since then. Momentum may exist, but fear of losing momentum should not be a factor in making decisions about, for example, whether to go for it on 4th and 1.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/03/120315105900.htm
-
He did not. He gave no criteria for determing how "by the WR" stats are even recorded. Furthermore, Fahey is clearly using his own version of the "eye test" to make his determinants. It's not like he has hard numbers. He's making his own interpretation by watching the plays, the same as me.
The YAC average for the Bills in 2015 was 31st. It was 30th in 2016. Unless our WR's got better in 2016, I'd say Fahey is full of it.
Here's what the OP said about how Fahey goes about his work:
"The focus is on the actual level of play of a QB on the field by attributing credit and/or blame for individual things the QB almost always gets credit (i.e.:completion %) or blame (i.e.:interceptions, sacks) for. Fahey acknowledges the inevitable subjectivity involved, but uses the same subjective criteria to chart 33 NFL QBs and every single one of their snaps. So it's pretty evenly subjective, at least."
That sounds a lot different than, "I know an NFL QB when I see one."
As to your comment about WRs and low YAC, I acknowledged that it is probably attributable to multiple factors, but the one thing that is UNLIKELY to be causing it is Tyrod's inaccuracy, since he ranks fairly high in most measures of accuracy.
-
Another forgotten influence was Roman's route tree which was often impugned as archaic. Modern route trees are designed to get guys open and to keep them running after the catch.
Evidently Roman never studied the pass game from the 1980s on. Even Lynn admitted that there were pass concepts he'd like to add, but couldn't due to limited practice time midseason.
Yes, that seems likely, but we would need to know whether the Bills' route tree favored certain types of passes over other types, and which types of passes tend to generate more or less YAC.
-
The numbers? How does Fahey get his "numbers?"
What was our team YAC in 2015? With a Sammy who played almost the entire season?
The evidence is in the game. Not only does TT throw balls that are usually inaccurate enough that WR/TE's can't turn up field, his deficits on using the middle of the field and relying too much on comebacks and outs (sideline throws) virtually ensure poor YAC numbers.
The OP explained how Fahey gets his numbers. Do you have any reason to dispute them (other than your "eye test")? I don't know what the YAC was in 2015, nor do I know the reason it was low in 2016. As I suggested, there could be many reasons, but TT's supposed inaccuracy is probably not a significant factor.
-
There really is zero evidence for this statement; in fact, the numbers suggest the opposite. Fahey's statistics show that Tyrod is overall actually a pretty accurate QB, although less so on short passes. It's more likely that the lack of YAC is (1) the Bills' tendency to not throw many short passes and (2) that the Bills' receivers last year were not very good. My sense is that the cause of low (or high) YAC is complicated, and that a lot more data is needed. And since Tyrod's adjusted YPA is so high (3d best in the league), I'm not sure why YAC even matters.TT's accuracy gives them no chance at YAC, on the whole.
-
I'm sorry, but I disagree whole-heartedly. Baseball and football are extremely different sports and while it quite obviously works in baseball across the board, I think in football you have to use the metrics and analytics carefully and sparingly. With lineman and linebackers based on their assignments and how they execute the plays, the analytics seem to me to have more value. But with a QB, there are just so many variables including how a game "feels" or "flows", also known as momentum that cannot be easily quantified in metrics that impact how a QB performs that it is a position that is much more about evaluating the QB by sight and what he accomplishes in the MANNER in which he accomplishes it or fails to do so, than any amount of metrics or analytics can provide. JMO, but it's not about dismissing the analytics as it is being quite cautious in their use.
Football analytics are certainly more complicated than they are in baseball, where the numbers are much less subjective and require less context. But that doesn't mean football analytics aren't meaningful, especially when it comes to quarterbacking, and many teams are buying in (including the Bills, apparently). And by the way, the idea that "momentum" is an important factor in football has been thoroughly de-bunked by statistical analysis and is a good example of the type of superstitious nonsense that should play no part in a coach's or an organization's decision making.
-
Thanks. Excellent post, OP. The reaction to this information (I don't care what the numbers say, Tyrod doesn't pass the eye test, he sucks.) is exactly why advanced statistical analysis is so important and why, for example, it has come to dominate baseball and is ascendant in football: your "eye test" is very often wrong, for a whole bunch of different reasons, including unconscious biases and the general unreliability of visual observation, of which Tyrod not meeting the eye test might be a good example.
-
Wonder if Leroi survived...
-
Kinda surprised only one RB. And is anyone else surprised the Bills didn't draft a RB with on of their three late picks?
-
Yates was the insurance policy if they did not draft another QB. They will choose the experience of Yates versus the potential of Jokes over the next several weeks. Yates is so bad that Jones has a chance to beat him out even though Jones is terrible too. It doesn't matter because Mr. Peterman will be #2 by the time training camp opens.
I'm amazed that you could know this already. I could have sworn that Cardale has played only three quarters of preseason football (throwing the ball to guys who are now selling life insurance) and the last quarter of the last game of the regular season for a lame-duck interim coach in a game the Bills were actively trying to lose. Were there games that you saw Cardale play in this winter that led you to believe he is "terrible"?
Tyrod, Yates, and CJ on the 53 man. Peterman to Practice Squad (if he clears waivers)
No one knows any such thing. The Bills don't have to make a decision about these QBs until the last pre-season game. The only thing we know with any degree of certainly is that TT will be the starter (barring injury), but even that is not set in stone. Jones, Peterman or Yates could end up being QB2 or being cut. Who stays and who goes is going to depend on how they perform, not who drafted whom or whether one of them is a Whaley or a McDermott guy. That's as it should be.
-
Why not just let the draft come to us? There will be a really good player available at 44.Well then... let's do this! Wish he were 2 inches taller, but I like the kid.
-
I have never advocated the banishment of any participant here, but IMO, the problem with RLB was the flippant tone of his comments, combined with the lack of any real content. Although he and Jeffismagic (to use one example) might share similarly strident views with regard to Tyrod, the difference in the tone, content and quality of their posts is night and day.Apparently he was reported by multiple members for "crusading" against Tyrod, but I wonder where are the suspensions on the other side of the equation for those who crusade in defense of Tyrod? What is the difference? The issue really, similar to when FireChan got the axe, is that RLB disagreed with the majority and was uninterested in being shamed into silence. Those who reported him are a bit like those who demanded the murder of Jesus and the excommunication of Galileo out of their own insecurities. That's to compare the condemnation, not to say Ryan is much like Jesus. Jesus is obviously not a Bills fan.
Clinging to preconceived notions and the defensiveness that follows from that is a recipe for destructiveness. I wonder if Jeffismagic is the next one for us to tear down, the talk of "crusade" has begun there. I think the real crusade are the ones who want to banish these good folks because they disagree.
-
The media didn't do their homework and it turns out NFL teams loved some of these players. KC GM just said they got someone that doesn't come along very often.
KC might be right. On the other hand, at least four teams that are more QB-needy than the Bills also passed on Mahomes and Watson.
-
So Tackle Cam Robinson is available at round 2. Should we move to get him or take BPA at 44?
Getting a CB and Tackle fills our needs at those positions and get WR in the third.
Thoughts?
No thanks. I've had enough of trading up in round 2. There will be a very good player available at 44. If anything, I would be listening to offers to trade back a few, to add a 4th round pick. This is a DEEP draft. It seems that OBD is aware of this.
-
Just because you have picks next year does not guarantee you anything if you try to trade up. I don't see Cleveland with Trubisky or a QB yet and don't forget the rest of the teams looking...Gonna have to give up a lot, when you could have stayed pat took the kid and kept those draft picks...I hope he sucks
I liked the trade back, but people who say this gives us ammo to trade up for Darnold, etc. next year are delusional. If there is a bona fide franchise guy or guys available, the team holding the top picks either won't trade them for any price or the cost to move up will be far, far more than an extra late first round pick. Our best hope at a top QB next year would be a KC or Buffalo implosion, neither of which is likely. KC looks to have a strong team coming back, but they are in a very tough division and if Alex Smith gets injured or butt-hurt about the Mahomes pick, they will be starting a rookie QB. I will be rooting against the Chiefs every week and I've never liked them anyway.
Let's face it: If Mahomes or Watson become a true franchise QB (and TT doesn't improve), this will be looked upon as a terrible trade for the Bills. One thing that makes me think the Bills did the right thing is that a number of teams that have greater QB need than the Bills (Jets, Niners, Jags and Browns) also passed on Watson and Mahomes, so it's not like these guys are sure-fire prospects.
-
Draft trade value charts don't take into consideration the strengths or weaknesses of the draft. Moving back to 27 and picking up an extra third in an extremely deep draft has extra value, it seems to me. And of course KC might suck this year. They open with the Pats, I think, which creates a bit of a dilemma.
-
Chiefs are in a very tough division. Anything can happen.
-
This is where oj comes off the board
-
Like this pick for Houston
Yep, they had to make that trade. Could not go into the season with just Tom Savage and the other stiff at QB.
-
I'll be pissed if the Browns got more than the Bills did to drop back.
-
Prediction for Bills' pick--Foster. Yep, he will be available at 27.
-
Now we have another team to root against this year--KC
-
yes!!!yes tradeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
-
Obviously, WR is a devalued position in the NFL
We should trade Sammy
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Those who say Sammy is only worth a 4th round pick are out of touch with reality. In case you didn't notice, three receivers were drafted in the first nine picks of the draft, even though many here predicted none would be taken in the top 15. WR is anything but a de-valued position. Although Sammy's had injury problems, they are not career ending type injuries and when healthy, Sammy is easily more talented than Davis, Williams or Ross. That being said, if Sammy was going to be traded, it would have happened before the draft, not after.