folz
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Posts posted by folz
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I don't completely disagree with your premise, I think we all hoped for a little more consistent (or splashy) production from Kincaid across this season (again, that's not on Kincaid, but more about his number of opportunities).
BUT, as others have said, it seems like a strange thing to be complaining/worrying about right now.
First of all, he is a rookie, and you are comparing him to the best in the league currently, such as George Kittle. Let's look at George Kittle's and some other TE's rookie stats in comparison---the current 5 best TEs in the league their rookie years.
Kincaid: 66 rec. 83 targets. 589 yards. 2 TDs
70 rec. 88 targets. 626 yards. 2 TDs (Kincaid's stats prorated to 17 games)
Kittle: 43 rec. 63 targets. 515 yards. 2 TDs
Kelce: only played in one game as a rookie. 2nd year stats below:
67 rec. 87 targets. 862 yards. 5 TDs
Andrews: 34 rec. 50 targets. 552 yards. 3 TDs
Waller: 2 rec. 6 targets. 18 yards. 1 TD
Goedert: 33 rec. 44 targets. 334 yards. 4 TDs.
Plus, I'm not sure what all of the other player's situations were their rookie years, but Kincaid was coming to a team that already had an established TE (though he missed 5 games this year), lots of other weapons (Diggs, Davis, Cook, Knox, Shakir, etc.), and an offensive coordinator that was in over his head and then fired mid-season. Yes, LaPorta is having a great rookie season, but he also has 47 more targets on the year than Kincaid. If Kincaid had 47 more targets, his yards would prorate to 803 yards (LaPorta has 860 yards). He does have 7 more TDs than Kincaid, but he is obviously more of a target in the red zone as Detroit doesn't have a lot of production behind St. Brown. So, could Kincaid have been targeted more or differently at times, sure, but I don't see it as an issue of any kind right now, especially after a week where he had a 51-yard reception and a stat line of 4 for 87 yards.
Kincaid is fine. Kincaid was a good pick. He will develop and how they use him will develop as the relationship grows. Nothing to see here.
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Some of you may laugh at this, but I wonder sometimes if the Bills Mafia isn't also part of that hive/collective.
To my mind at least, it has been proven that mass prayer or mass collective thinking can also have an affect in the world (physics has at least proven that the observer can influence the outcome of an experiment just by observing). And just being at a game, when 70,000 people are cheering and rooting at the same time, the energy can be palpable and inspire a team or change momentum in the game. But for so many years as a fan base, we have had our hearts repeatedly broken that now many of us just wait for that inevitable other shoe (bad thing) to drop/happen---self-fulfilling prophesy).
What if Bills Mafia changed its mindset as well to expecting good things (a great playoff run) to happen, rather than expecting doom and gloom. Maybe we can help will our battle-tested team to victory!
Just a thought. 😊
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My God, these announcers are horrible!
Just needed to express that, though I'm sure it's already been said. Go Bills!
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On 12/27/2023 at 12:07 PM, FilthyBeast said:
- I still think this team is closer to the one that was 5-5 in the first 10 games vs. what we've seen since Dorsey has been fired.
Seriously? So, we were 5-5. From your post, you expect us to lose to New England and Miami. That's 5-7. So, that leaves the second Jets game (W), Philly (L), KC (W), Dallas (W), and Chargers (W). I'll assume you are ok with the wins vs. the Jets and Cowgirls. You obviously think the Chargers game should have been a loss, and I am sure you are a poster who thinks we should have lost the KC game as well (due to Toney's toes).
I mean, do you really think the Bills this year (talent- and coaching-wise) are/should be just a 7-10 team?
I could just as easily say that the refs screwed us in the Jacksonville game, the Cincy game, and the Philly game. Plus I expect the Bills to win out. That would have made them 14-3.
Quite a discrepancy. Reality is the Bills are 9-6 with two winnable games to go. "You are what your record says you are." It's been an up-and-down year with some problems and adversity, we all know that. But, the Bills are playing their best ball down the stretch and still have a shot to go on a run, which is exactly what you want.
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7 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:
I don't really care that my QB would have made a great running back. I want him to be an elite passer. I also really don't care about TDs for a QB. It's a highly volatile stat that really isn't indicative of a skill, imo. It's more a byproduct of scheme and team skill.
You're using outdated info. Like I said, Josh is a full games worth of production behind the top performing QBs in the league. Josh is 6th in yards and Brock Purdy hasn't even played yet. The only thing he'll lead in is TDs, and that's not very impressive on its own unless it was a monster stat unles syou're putting up 50 passing TDs. He's 10th in passer rating before today, and 3rd in QBR.
Come on man. You are trying way too hard to prove your point. You can't cherry pick stats by not including touchdowns and rushing yards. No one judges QBs on passing yards and INTs only, ignoring all other stats. Did the people who vote for the MVP ignore Lamar Jackson's rushing yards and rushing TDs the year he won the MVP? It's not about what YOU think your QB should be...it's about how the voters view the total stats/impact of the players. There is no way Lamar wins that award if it was based on passing yards alone. He was 22nd in passing yards in 2019, his MVP season (with 3,127 passing yards---Josh has 3,778 passing yards with two games to go this season---for comparison).
Plus, points win games, not yards. There are plenty of NFL games where the team with the most yards actually loses the game. And yes, I noted pretty clearly that Brock and CMC were still one game behind the rest of the players in my original post (I did use updated stats for Tua and Dak---they had played the same number of games as Josh). But, now that San Fran has played and week 16 is in the books, I have updated my list to be fully current (and included Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff for further comparison---I only added Goff because he is one of the players with more passing yards than Josh, not because I think he is an MVP candidate).
Player Total Yards (Pass/Rush/Rec) Total TDs (Pass/Rush/Rec) INTs (for QBs)
Pat 4,325 26 14
Tua 4,267 26 10
Josh 4,191 40 15
Brock 4,190 31 11
Lamar 4,143 24 7
Dak 4,129 32 7
Jared 4,005 29 10
CMC 1,932 21
Tyreek 1,656 12
Mostert 1,187 21
vs. Mahomes: Would you trade 134 yards and one less interception across the season for the extra 14 TDs that Josh has?
vs. Tua: Are 14 touchdowns more for Josh not better than Tua's extra 76 yards and 5 less INTs?
None of the other QBs have more total yards than Josh. And no QB, including Mahomes and Tua has more TDs.
You told another poster to do the math, well, I ask you to do the same.
So, Josh has the third most total yards in the league and BY FAR the most TDs in the league. And after today, his # of INTs in comparison doesn't look quite as bad. Lamar obviously doesn't throw the ball as much as the other QBs, which accounts for his low INT number, and Dak seems to be an outlier (having a good season where INTs are concerned). The rest aren't that far from Josh's number of INTs to outweigh the number of TDs that Josh has. And we all know that there is also an element of luck when it comes to INTs.
Again, I'm not saying that Josh should be the MVP, but it is ridiculous for you to say that Josh isn't even worthy of being in the conversation.
Lamar's 2019 MVP season
4,333 total yards; 43 total TDs; 6 INTs
Josh needs 142 total yards and 3 TDs over the last two games to equal Lamar's MVP season. Yes. he has 9 more INTs than Lamar did that season, but if you take Josh's 2023 game averages (279.4 yards and 2.66 TDs) for the next two games, Josh would have 417 total yards and 2-3 TDs more than Lamar did in his MVP season...just sayin'.
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15 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:
You realize that he's played an extra game over all those players and he's still that far behind, right?
14 hours ago, mrags said:He’s not really that far behind. After this week is finished he’s still likely to be 3rd or 4th in passing yards. 4th in rushing TDs (including RBs) and still 3rd in passing TDs. Be he will still be in the league lead in overall TDs unless somehow Hurts scores 7 times this game and Purdy scores 9 times. Like I said, he leads the league in overall TDs by a wide margin. He could probably take the rest of the year off and still not be caught by Purdy or Hurts
I'm not saying that Josh should get the MVP, but I do find it interesting that people seem to overlook his rushing yards/TDs in the comparisons to other QBs. When you evaluate Christian McCaffrey, you don't overlook his receiving yards/TDs because he is a running back.
Player Total Yards (Pass/Rush/Rec) Total TDs (Pass/Rush/Rec) INTs (for QBs)
Tua 4,267 26 10
Josh 4,191 40 15
Dak 4,129 32 7
Brock* 3,933 31 7
CMC* 1,801 20
Tyreek 1,656 12
Mostert 1,187 21
*At this point, Brock and CMC have played 1 fewer game than all of the rest of the players.
In my way of looking at this, CMC eliminates Tyreek and Mostert (because he is definitely ahead of them, so they are out). Mostert shouldn't even be in the covo, and though Tyreek is the most important player on Miami, he's not more important to them than CMC is to San Fran. So, to me, it comes down to CMC vs. the QBs.
Tua has the most total yards (only 78 more than Josh)---let's say Brock throws for 300 against Baltimore today (which is unlikely), he'd be at 4,233 (34 yards behind Tua, and 42 yards ahead of Josh). So, the most likely scenario would be Brock jumping Dak, but not Josh and Tua in yards. Josh is way ahead in TDs. Even if Purdy gets 3 today, he's still 6 behind Josh. And, of course, Josh has the most INTs.
So, the 4 QBs are all really close in total yards (all within 138 yards of each other---about 9 yards per game only). And record-wise, Josh is one game behind Dak and two behind Tua and Brock. In a team-based sport, I don't think a record that is 1-2 games better is that significant in crowning an MVP (especially when Josh's team blew out both Tua's and Dak's teams).
So, it really comes down to TDs vs. INTs and perceptions.
Josh averages 1 more INT per 3 games than Tua, but almost one more TD per game (.933) than Tua. So for every extra pick that Josh throws in comparison to Tua, he scores 3 more TDs. I'll take that any day.
Josh averages 1 more INT per 2 games than Dak, but one more TD per 2 games than Dak. Since not every turnover leads to a TD. I'll take this ratio too.
Josh averages 1 more INT per 2 games than Brock, but almost one more TD per 2 games (.900) than Brock. Again, TDs trump INTs, but this is a bit closer.
So, again, I'm not saying Josh should be the MVP, but why shouldn't he be in the conversation when he has the second most total yards in the league and his TD totals at least balance, if not way overcome the extra picks.
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Just a few defensive stats I wanted to point out (but didn't want to start an entire new thread, so I thought that I would throw them in here):
As of Week 15:
-Bills are currently 5th in sacks with 45 (only 1 behind the Colts and Chiefs at 46, 3 behind Miami, and 5 behind Baltimore). They are 3rd in QB knock-downs.
-Bills are currently tied for 2nd in turnovers with 24, just 1 turnover behind current league-leaders San Fran and Jax (25 turnovers each).
-Bills are 11th in yards allowed, but 4th in points allowed (behind only KC, San Fran, and Baltimore). And after the Chargers and Pats games, I would expect that they'll at least move up into the top ten in yards allowed.
Not too bad considering the injuries to Tre, Milano, DaQuan (our best defender at each level of the defense)...and the fact that the offense was anemic for what a good 6-game stretch. And yet, the Bills are still statistically like a top 5 defense.
Shout out to the defensive line, they have been playing in the opposing team's backfield quite a bit:
Floyd 10.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss
Oliver 6.5 sacks, 11 tackles for loss
A.J. 6.5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss
Groot 5 sacks, 12 tackles for a loss
Phillips/Jones/Joseph (combined), 6 sacks, 6 tackles for a loss
Saint Bernard
Terrell Bernard (13 games): 117 tackles (good for 12th best in the league) with 3.5 sacks, 6 tackles for a loss, 3 INTs, and 3 fumble recoveries.
For comparison...and to beat a dead horse:
Tremaine Edmunds w/Bears (13 games, on 78% of team's defensive snaps): 92 tackles, 0 sacks, 3 tackles for a loss, 4 INTs, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery.
Tyrel Dodson (13 games, on 47% of teams defensive snaps): 63 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 6 tackles for a loss, 0 INTs, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery
Tremaine w/Bills 2022 (17 games): 102 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 6 tackles for a loss, 0 forced or recovered fumbles
Bernard has 15.5 impact plays (sack/loss/turnover) this season in 14 games
Edmunds has 17 impact plays over the last two seasons (30 games)
Cheers to Beane for the pickups of Rasul Douglas and Linval Joseph. Honestly, may have saved the season (that and the firing of Dorsey, of course)..
Despite anyone's overall stance on McDermott as head coach, you have to give him some props for keeping this defense playing at a pretty high-level despite everything. The fact that the offense went into its slump at the same time that we lost Tre, Matt, and DaQuan made for a very difficult stretch of games. Hopefully that is all in the rearview mirror now with Brady at OC, our new defenders acclimated, and possibly some guys coming back.
I mean, I know these are probably big IFs, but if Milano, DaQuan, and Von are all in full football shape/back to playing at a high level by the playoffs (provided we make it in, which I believe we will)...watch out NFL.
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I agree. He's a good kid and he tries hard, but he's too reckless on the field. He needs to fix that or eventually no one will want him.
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8 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:
We can argue semantics until we're blue in the face. In the end, it's irrelevant what you want to call Dunne's reporting and completely misses the point I'm making.
The point is that this existing mindset from a segment of the fanbase that a reporter shouldn't report certain opinions about a millionaire coach of a football team because it might hurt his feelings is completely absurd.
We need to bring all perspectives about this head coach to light because many people pay their hard-earned money and spend time out of their lives rooting for this team that he's in charge of. And because it's a competitive sport, our goal as fans is to witness this team winning the Super Bowl. And if there are many people out there who have experience working closely with that coach and believe he doesn't have the leadership qualities and/or coaching chops it takes to get that team there, then it should be reported to the public.
To think Dunne "could have listened to his higher angels and taken a higher road" by not reporting what former players and colleagues really think about McDermott is a disservice to the fanbase.
I pointed this out earlier in the thread, but thought it might need repeating:
I just think you need to read the article a little more critically (take off your "I think McD should be fired" glasses for just a moment and think about it as if this article were written about you or a family member). The reason I believe it to be a "hit" piece is not because Dunne shared a couple of embarrassing stories from former players (big deal), and its not because he used actual quotes from his sources that may not be flattering for McDermott, which of course just shows that Dunne is cherry-picking stories and quotes from disgruntled people to try to paint a particular narrative (already not the most noble endeavor for an "honest" journalist)...
It is a hit piece because the article is riddled with personal attacks from Dunne (not his sources) directed at McDermott. Tell me if the following phrases (none of which came from his sources, these are Dunne's own words) sound like good, honest journalism or just personal attacks. Dunne wrote the following things about McDermott (and this is just a small sample):
he's "tangibly nervous"
"He's quick to blame"
"he put Dorsey's head on a stick"
"the honeymoon is over" with players (i.e. he's lost the locker room)
he's always "pointing a finger at his breadwinning quarterback"
he "finds a way to deflect blame"
he's "a coaching relic routinely paralyzed by fear"
he's "forever horrified of what could go wrong"
he's "Oblivious to reality"
"the head coach...administers mass lobotomies on his team."
Is that someone just reporting what his sources told him, or is that someone with an agenda?
Do you not see how Dunne is using very emotional language to influence, that he blurs the line between what is his opinion and what are the opinions of the 25 interviewees. I mean, not one of those people said that McDermott was "a coaching relic" or "oblivious to reality", etc. None of the above are source quotes. But Dunne makes you think that all 25 people he talked to basically concur with all of his final conclusions, which seem to just be a lot of personal attacks. How would you feel if someone wrote an article about you basically calling you a nervous, fearful, coward who is so clueless that he actually makes those around him stupid, and then intimate that you basically have 25 people to back that up, and the next thing you know you are being lampooned on a national comedy show. Would you still feel that this was just a truthful writer doing his job? This is the coach of a .500 win football team, not some presidential candidate with dirty laundry. Just because someone is in the public eye doesn't mean they are fair game to personal attacks. You can criticize the job they are doing, etc. but leave the name calling on the playground with the kiddies.
In the world of logic, grammar, and rhetoric, one only uses fallacies, such as ad hominem (personal) attacks, when they know their argument isn't actually that strong, and/or when they just want to destroy someone (revenge). I don't know if Dunne has a beef or is just trying to get subs, but this article is not just some honest journalist looking out for the good people of western New York who deserve to know the truth because they spend their hard earned money on this product.
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9 minutes ago, RiotAct said:
“what a fiery competitor!!!!!”
Exactly...Romo and Nance say, "Isn't that great, really shows his competitive nature."
If Josh or most other players did that, we would hear all week about their poor sportsmanship, how they lost their cool, need to learn to control themselves better. But with Pat, of course it just proves how great he is. I don't dislike Mahomes, but the favoritism in the league and media is hard to take sometimes.
And it kills me when players (Brady/Mahomes/Kelce) who almost always get the calls their way complain about the refs. 🙄
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1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:
Still mathematically alive baby!
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On 11/27/2023 at 10:28 AM, Dablitzkrieg said:
Only McD can manage to "lead" a team to a .500 record with an elite QB
First of all, the season isn't over yet. But yes, with the talent on this team, our record should be better...but this idea going around the board that having an elite QB automatically equals 12-13 wins and a Super Bowl appearance (at least every other year) is a fallacy. As is, no other coach could ever have a .500 record with an elite QB.
The "great" Sean Payton led the Saints to four seasons of 7-9 and also an 8-8 season with soon-to-be Hall of Famer Drew Brees as his QB. (One Super Bowl appearance/win in 14 years together).
Mike McCarthy had season records of 6-10, 8-7-1, 7-9, and 4-7-1 with Aaron Rodgers as his QB.
Matt LaFleur had an 8-9 season with Aaron Rodgers at QB.
Mike Tomlin had two 8-8 seasons with Ben Roethlisberger.
Ok, this one is stretching back to another era (and the Bills had a lot to say about it), but Don Shula (HOF, top 3 coach of all-time) with Dan Marino (HOF, top 5-7 QB all time) in 13 years together, only made (and lost) one Super Bowl, and had seasons of 8-8, 8-7, 6-10, 8-8, and 8-8.
This isn't Madden, where everything is static based on rating, teams/coaches/players have theirs ups and downs, ebbs and flows, not just during the season, but from year to year as well. It's not as easy as get an elite QB and start winning Super Bowls. I think Brady and Mahomes have skewed people's perceptions. People now think that if you have an elite QB, you should automatically be in the Super Bowl every other year. It's just not true. Brady and Mahomes are the exception, not the rule...and we don't even know if Pat can maintain that for another ten years (going to Super Bowls, not his level of play) to remain that exception.
This isn't a defense of McDermott per se (I am not by any means ok with a .500 record/no playoffs---if that happens---either), I just think that we as fans need to be more realistic about our expectations and criticisms. But then fan is short for fanatic, so...🤷♂️
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It's always a good thing to have more/diverse weapons at your command as long as the OC is good and knows how to best utilize everyone. If Brady is worth his salt, there is no negative with Knox returning. It's just more options for Brady dependent on opponent/situation. And Knox is the best blocking TE, which should help in certain situations. I think you can run an offense where Kincaid, Knox, and Shakir all still get plenty of snaps and opportunities. But maybe the number of snaps flips a bit from earlier in the year when it was Knox, Kincaid, Shakir in order of snap count, to Kincaid, Shakir, Knox or Kincaid, Knox, Shakir. Morris and Sherfield will also probably see a bit of a drop in snap count as well to accommodate for Knox.
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I have not read the entire article, so there may be some damning quotes to back up the opinions, but from the excerpts that have been shared here, this is exactly why I have problems with articles like these (regardless of if you want McD fired or not). Let's face it, this is not a news story, it is an opinion piece. And all too often these days, writers blur the lines between what are their opinions and what are the actual words of the people they quote. For instance, here is one excerpted segment. Actual quotes are in red, Dunne's opinion/or conclusions are in green.
Those who’ve worked with the head coach on a day-to-day basis predicted all of this — months in advance — because they’ve seen how McDermott operates on a day-to-day basis. How tangibly nervous he gets in close games. How he has never truly appreciated his gift from the football gods: Josh Allen. How he’s quick to blame everyone but himself in defeat. That’s why one coach — in June — began by asking a simple question: “If they fail again this year? What does ownership do with Sean?”
Three seconds later, he answered his own hypothetical.
“Next year if they fail, you know who’ll be the first person he serves up? Ken Dorsey.”
The coach wasn’t quite sure how McDermott would manage to put Dorsey’s head on a stick. After all, it’s the head coach’s beloved defense that has melted in four straight postseason losses. The honeymoon period with fans ended a long time ago — pointing a finger at his breadwinning quarterback, again, surely wouldn’t work. Yet even back in June, this assistant knew his old boss would find a way to deflect blame.
“Watch,” he said, “if they sputter at all during this year, the narrative’s going to be the offense.”
So, one coach (that may have worked under Sean---Dunne intimates it but doesn't confirm it) back in June said that if the team fails, Sean will create a narrative that it's the offenses fault and "serve up" Dorsey. But Dunne led into the quote with "Those who've worked with the head coach on a day-to-day basis predicted all of this.." You have one person quoted, who are "those", is it all 25 people you talked to or is it just this one unnamed coach. He leads you to believe that all of his sources thought this, predicted it. But we don't know if it's more than just this one or not, or how many.
And look at the terminology that he, Dunne, (not his sources) uses:
"tangibly nervous" "Never truly appreciated his gift from the football gods: Josh Allen" "He's quick to blame" "put Dorsey's head on a stick" "head coach's beloved defense that has melted" "honeymoon is over" "pointing a finger at his breadwinning quarterback" "find a way to deflect blame"
None of those are quotes from his sources, that is Dunne painting the picture he wants you to see, and leading us to believe that his opinions are actually those of all of the people he quoted. And well if 25 people are saying this, that's a lot, so it must be true and everyone across the organization feels this way.
Here's the other excerpt that was posted:
He’s a coaching relic routinely paralyzed by fear late in games. He never imagines what could go right with 20 seconds left in regulation, instead forever horrified of what could go wrong. Oblivious to the reality that he employs one of the sport’s most talented quarterbacks. The word you’ll hear constantly from those who’ve been around McDermott is “tight.” He’s so incomprehensibly tight, they say, players cannot help but stiffen up themselves. As if the head coach uses the 2-minute warning to administer mass lobotomies on his team.
Again, the entire actual quote that he is using from his source is "tight."
The rest is all Dunne again, and honestly, look at the words and phrases he is using to emotionally sway us to his opinion. No doubt this writer has some sort of axe to grind: "a coaching relic routinely paralyzed by fear" "forever horrified of what could go wrong" "Oblivious to reality" "the head coach...administers mass lobotomies on his team."
I mean, come on, those are not quotes or even opinions from his sources, that is all Dunne's opinion, but when you read the article the two things get blurred together that you start thinking that Dunne's opinion is how everyone in the building feels, because I mean he interviewed 25 people. Yeah, but what did these people actually say (compared to Dunne's opinion and creative writer's license) and who are these people, what's their perspective, their level of objectivity. If he quotes one person, am I to assume the other 24 people all feel the same way, etc.
This post has nothing to do with whether McDermott should be fired or not, just pointing out that we need to read articles like these with our critical hats on and take them with a grain of salt.
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Honestly, if we didn't get hosed by the refs this year (or got the Philly/KC treatment instead), it would be a totally different picture. We would be sitting at 9-3 (or better) right now...with wins against Philly...but more importantly, AFC teams Cincinnati and Jacksonville. We would be lamenting that we might not get the #1 seed because of the three games we shouldn't have lost (Jets, Pats, Broncos---by a combined 12 points), rather than wondering if we can run the table to sneak into the playoffs. On the one hand, maybe the Jax and Cincy losses helped in the firing of Ken Dorsey (which maybe doesn't happen if our record is better), so maybe things happen for a reason, but I think we and the media/other fans would have a much different view of the 2023 Bills if we were sitting at 9-3 right now (top of the AFC East), having just beat Philly (the 9-1 reigning NFC Champs), with a blowout win against the Dolphins, and a 5-3 Conference record (instead of 3-5).
I'm linking a couple of videos from a channel called Bills News Consolidated where he breaks down the bad calls or non-calls in the Eagles and Bengals games. You may not agree with all of his interpretations (he is a Bills fan after all and we all have a little bias built in when it comes to our team), but I do think he makes a pretty good case in showing how lopsided the refereeing was in those contests.
In the first half against Philly...when we were rolling and they were struggling, the refs called 10 penalties for 75 yards against the Bills, while the Eagles only got called for one 5-yard false start penalty (and by the way, they didn't call another penalty on the Eagles until there was only :38 seconds left in the 4th quarter). And that doesn't even get into all of the penalties by the Eagles that the refs just chose to overlook. And I could add at least a few more non-calls from the ones he points out in his video: the blindside hit on Diggs, a blatant hold on an Eagles kick return, etc.
And in the Bengals game, he shows 12 calls that didn't go the Bills way that were either not fouls, or ticks-tacky fouls that weren't being called consistently on both teams, etc. He didn't do a breakdown of the Jacksonville game, but the officiating was just as horrendous in that one. It was obvious, with the NFL's "experiment," that they wanted Jacksonville to come out on top of that one.
Call it what you will...conspiracy, corruption, incompetence...but it seems pretty obvious that the Bills did get screwed this year.
[This is not to say that the Bills haven't shot themselves in the foot as well, or that the offense wasn't anemic for a good stretch, that there wasn't internal strife causing problems, etc., etc. But even with all of that, we still win these three games if the refs called them fairly/consistently, imo.]
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5 hours ago, FireChans said:
I don’t think so.
Allen is pretty much has the worst TD/TO ratio of the really good QB’s from that list. Worse than guys we are pretty confident he is better then.
And the only way to have a turn over ratio lower than a guy like Dak, when you score a lot more touchdowns is to also have a lot more TO’s.
Hence, the conclusion.
That’s kinda the problem. Halfway through his career and we haven’t sniffed an SB.
It felt like an inevitability 2 years ago. It no longer does.
Since I looked at 5 top QBs statistically from 2020-2023 in my other post, I thought I would look at their TD:Turnover rate for that period (you went back to 2018). I also added a handful more guys from my last post for a larger comparison (outside of Rodgers, only choosing guys that played all 4 years).
2020-2023
TD:Turnover Rate* Total TDs
Aaron Rodgers 4.37 118 (2020-2022 only for Rodgers)
Justin Herbert 2.84 125
Patrick Mahomes 2.74 145
Jalen Hurts 2.36 99
Kirk Cousin 2.36 125
Dak Perscott 2.32 102
Joe Burrow 2.28 107
Josh Allen 2.19 162
Ryan Tannehill 2.15 86
Tua Tag 2.10 80
Matt Stafford 1.86 91
Lamar Jackson 1.82 89
Jared Goff 1.74 92
Derek Carr 1.50 87
*turnovers include interceptions and fumbles lost
Now, granted, more overall TDs is still better (which Josh has) because the opposing team is not going to score 7 points off of every turnover. Some may just turn into field goals and on some they may not get points at all. So, TD to Turnover rate isn't some be-all stat for overall success or scoring or wins either. It just points out that, as we all know, Josh could get better at not turning the ball over. If he did, he would then be fully on par with Mahomes...but as it is, he's a step down right now because of the turnovers. Yet Josh's overall total TDs/scoring does balance out enough of the turnovers, to still put him ahead of the rest of the QBs in the league (not named Mahomes), imo. I mean would anyone really want Kirk Cousins instead of Josh Allen because Kirk has a better TD to Turnover Rate?
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2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
Nicely done.
Could you do that also for Burrow and Lamar? I think that would cover the top 5 QBs in the NFL over the last few years.
Adding Burrow and Jackson to the comparison per request
Five QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons)
Total Attempts (pass + rush) Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost) Turnover % Total TDs (pass + rush) TD %
Allen 2,628 74 2.8 162 6.2
Mahomes 2,547 53 2.1 145 5.7
Hurts 1,879 42 2.24 99 5.3
Burrow 2,078 47 2.26 107 5.15
Jackson 1,934 49 2.53 89 4.60
Average per season (2020-2023):
Attempts Total TOs Total TDs
Allen 657 18.5 40.5
Mahomes 636.75 13.25 36.25
Hurts 469.75 10.5 24.75
Burrow 519.5 11.75 26.75
Jackson 483.5 12.25 22.25
[If you prorate each QB to the same number of attempts as Josh, it would look like this:
Attempts Total TOs Total TDs
Allen 657 18.5 40.5
Mahomes 657 13.7 37.4
Hurts 657 14.7 34.6
Burrow 657 14.9 33.8
Jackson 657 16.6 30.2
[I adjusted the following numbers from my first post with the players actual number of games played for 2020-2023]
Josh averaged 1.21 turnovers/game and 2.66 TDs/game (net +1.45 TDs)
Pat averaged .88 turnovers/game and 2.41 TDs/game (net +1.53 TDs)
Jalen averaged .88 turnovers/game and 1.77 TDs/game (net +.89 TDs)
Joe averaged .90 turnovers/game and 2.06 TDs/game (net +1.16 TDs)
Lamar averaged .96 turnovers/game and 1.75 TDs/game (net +.79 TDs)
So, over 2020-2023:
In comparison to Mahomes, Josh has averaged 5 more turnovers per season, but also 4 more TDs per season
In comparison to Hurts, Josh has averaged 8 more turnovers/season, but also 16 more TDs per season
In comparison to Burrow, Josh has averaged 6 more turnovers/season, but also 14 more TDs per season
In comparison to Jackson, Josh has averaged 6 more turnovers/season, but also 18 more TDs per season
Another possible way to look at it (besides TDs) is number of yards per turnover:
Total yards (2020-2023) Total TOs Yards/turnover
Allen 18,736 74 253.12
Mahomes 19,098 53 360.34
Hurts 10,911 42 259.79
Burrow 14,688 47 312.51
Jackson 13,609 49 277.73
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2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
I think you and @Alphadawg7 are looking at this in the wrong way.
There should be one way to examine turnovers alone:
It's about turnovers to touches.
Total turnovers DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage.
That's how you determine whether Josh is really turnover prone compared to other QBs.
Josh, Lamar and Burrow I know are all relatively close to each other. Josh is about 2.5% while Burrow and Lamar are about 2.1%. I didn't put in any work for anyone else, but since you 2 are going back and forth with this, you might want to.
The thing is, to really figure out the cost/benefit to all this, you also basically need to do the same formula for total Touchdowns.
Total touchdowns DIVIDED by the TOTAL number of touches which is simply pass attempts + sacks + rushing attempts gives you a true turnover percentage.
That would be their actual TD %.
Josh in this category is 5.6% while BOTH Burrow and Lamar sit at 4.8%
So at least as far as these 2 other Elite QBs go, Josh's TD % is pretty notably higher than his TO % is worse than Burrow & Lamar, but the conversation is always about Josh being a turnover machine.
About an hour ago I added the following comparison of Josh, Mahomes, and Hurts to the other thread (Alpha's thread). So, I thought I would put it in here too, just for added information on the subject:
Three QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) [Didn't have time to do more than the 3 QBs, but figured it would be a good picture at least, 3 current top QBs]:
Total Attempts (pass + rush) Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost) Turnover % Total TDs (pass + rush) TD %
Allen 2,628 74 2.8 162 6.2
Mahomes 2,547 53 2.1 145 5.7
Hurts 1,879 42 2.24 99 5.3
Averages per season (2020-2023):
Attempts Total TOs Total TDs
Allen 657 18.5 40.5
Mahomes 636.75 13.25 36.25
Hurts 469.75 10.5 24.75
[If you prorate Hurts to the same number of attempts as Josh, his turnovers would rise to 14.7 and his TDs to 34.6.]
So, yes, Josh has a lot more turnovers than Mahomes and Hurts overall, but on more attempts and also with more TDs. His TO% is indeed the highest, but so is his TD%. [And as far as attempts go, Mahomes is too close to Josh for it to probably make any significant difference; but if Hurts had 750 more attempts, it is likely that his turnover % would go up from where it is---just by odds].
Josh averages 1.09 turnovers/game and 2.38 TDs/game (net +1.29 TDs)
Pat averages .78 turnovers/game and 2.13 TDs/game (net +1.35 TDs)
Jalen averages .62 turnovers/game and 1.46 TDs/game (net +.84 TDs)
So, in comparison to Mahomes, Josh has averaged 5 more turnovers per season, but also 4 more TDs per season
In comparison to Hurts, Josh has averaged 8 more turnovers/season, but also 16 more TDs per season
Another possible way to look at it (besides TDs) is number of yards per turnover:
Total yards (2020-2023) Total TOs Yards/turnover
Allen 18,736 74 253.12
Mahomes 19,098 53 360.34
Hurts 10,911 42 259.79
So, from a yardage standpoint, Mahomes is far out ahead. But, Hurts and Josh are pretty close.
All things considered, I think Josh's yardage, TDs, and IT factor far outweigh the high turnover percentage in relation to any QB not named Mahomes. But, boy, if he could get that turnover rate down a bit...
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Look, we all want Josh to cut down on turnovers, but even with the turnovers, his positives way supersede his negatives.
Nice OP Alpha...I think you proved your point regarding Josh's interceptions pretty well. I just thought that I would satisfy some of your threads' critics with some stats that include, yes, FUMBLES/total turnovers:
Three QB comparison, last 4 years (2020-2023 seasons) [Didn't have time to do more than the 3 QBs, but figured it would be a good picture at least, 3 current top QBs]:
Total Attempts (pass + rush) Total Turnovers (INTs + FL Lost) Turnover % Total TDs (pass + rush) TD %
Allen 2,628 74 2.8 162 6.2
Mahomes 2,547 53 2.1 145 5.7
Hurts 1,879 42 2.24 99 5.3
Averages per season (2020-2023):
Attempts Total TOs Total TDs
Allen 657 18.5 40.5
Mahomes 636.75 13.25 36.25
Hurts 469.75 10.5 24.75
So, yes, Josh has a lot more turnovers than Mahomes and Hurts overall, but on more attempts and also with more TDs. His TO% is indeed the highest, but so is his TD%. [And as far as attempts go, Mahomes is too close to Josh for it to probably make any significant difference; but if Hurts had 750 more attempts, it is likely that his turnover % would go up from where it is---just by odds].
Josh averages 1.09 turnovers/game and 2.38 TDs/game
Pat averages .78 turnovers/game and 2.13 TDs/game
Jalen averages .62 turnovers/game and 1.46 TDs/game
So, in comparison to Mahomes, Josh has 5 more turnovers per season, and 4 more TDs per season
In comparison to Hurts, Josh has 8 more turnovers/season, but 16 more TDs per season
Do the turnovers hurt more than the TDs help? You tell me. But obviously, if Josh could cut down on the turnovers, he would be even more unstoppable.
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It's never over until you are mathematically eliminated!
And we've got a bye week now to rest up and retool. How much fun would it be if they did go on a run. That's what I'm rooting for.
If it doesn't happen, well, that's what the offseason is for and changes will most likely be made. But, right now, we still have a chance with 5 more games. Just need to take them one at a time, exacting our season-long frustrations out on each and everyone:
Nedermeyer...dead, Mahomes...dead, Jerry Jones...dead, Boltman...dead---you get the picture. 😊
I mean, what the F@&# happened to the Bills fans that I used to know? Show some gumption and keep rooting for the team until the season is officially over.
Go Bills!
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People already going off on the coaching staff. Unbelievable.
This game was totally on the Bills players and the refs.
If Cook doesn't drop a gimme TD, Gabe and Josh are on the same page in OT, and Tyler hits his FGs, the Bills win by 16 points.
And don't even get me started on the refs.
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4 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
Maybe it's because they are young and have never actually seen the movie, but those are some weak Rocky poses boys. Hope the Bills come out stronger than that today.
The Bills have been the hunted the last couple of years, but they are back to being the underdog...right where they like to be. Watch out league!
And the Bills should have plenty of motivation: 1. The Playoffs; 2. Not letting Miami take away the division crown; 3. The way they have been talked about and portrayed in the media the last 6 weeks or so. Time for the Bills to take out their frustrations against every team they face, to get back in the race.
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2 hours ago, Watkins90 said:
The funny thing is to me, the Bills used to run this and really effectively. I can remember watching Gabe Davis push Josh Allen into the end zone several times. I just don't think we utilized it on other parts of the field like the Eagles do.
57 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:hey guys, do you remember when Gabe Davis shoved Josh from behind and it worked 95% of the time?
12 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:The Bills have used Davis to do this....but never with the approach that the Eagles do, I don't see any other teams just all out push the guy like they do and I find that surprising.
I've been thinking this since I heard the nickname "Brotherly Shove." I was like how did that come about (Philly getting credit or the moniker for this play)? The Bills ran this a number of times last season and I remember announcers saying (at that time) that they had never seen it before (Gabe/a WR helping to push Josh/QB in the end zone) and then, eventually, other teams started to followed suit. Not that it really matters who gets credit (except maybe to Ken Dorsey), but I've been like why is this now Philadelphia's thing? As if they invented it.
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4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Davis fumbles too
Two fumbles in four years.
And what no one who brings up Gabe's catch percentage points out is the difficultly level of the balls thrown to him. Most of the throws to Gabe are deep shots, either fly patterns, posts, deep outs, etc. Those throws have a much higher-level of difficulty. For instance, if you compare his catch percentage to a slot receiver or a possession receiver whose majority of receptions are under 10 yards, well of course those players are going to have a higher percentage than Gabe.
I'm not forgiving Gabe for his drops or for not fighting hard enough for contested balls sometimes, but catch percentage has to be looked at in context.
Kincaid Comparisons
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I honestly have not heard anyone say that Kincaid is already elite. I think we all hope he can get there, but no one is saying his rookie season was on par with a veteran Kelce or Kittle season, etc. You are the one who brought up those comparisons. He broke a Bills record and people celebrated it. That's it. First of all, it's just a Bills record, not an NFL record; and secondly, we all understand that a lot of his receptions were possession receiver type receptions. Just because people congratulated him on the record, or are positive about his future, doesn't mean they think he is already elite.
Also, we are Bills fans, shouldn't we be happy when one of our players accomplishes something? Even if it's not really a huge deal. Why is it these days that if you say something positive about a Bills player, there is horde of posters who will jump in to tell you that no, in fact, that player sucks or isn't living up to his draft status.
Plus, the impatience of current NFL fans is frustrating. When I first started watching football, very few rookies even started their rookie years (outside of a few QBs and RBs maybe). A lot of players used to sit and learn for two or three years before they got their shot. I understand that it is a different league now, but there is still a learning curve for college players coming into the league. Just because many rookies start now and maybe 5-10 have excellent rookie years, doesn't mean that every guy should be able to come in and go off his first season. Plus a lot of that has to do with coaching. We know that Sean would rather not throw guys in right away, but work them in slowly, etc. When did people start expecting every first or second day pick to automatically be an All-Pro their rookie year? It is still an extremely rare thing (like 1-2 guys per year out of 250 draft selections and how many undrafted guys).
Give Dalton time. He is having a very nice (not elite) rookie year and he will only get better. DK is just not a problem with this team right now. Also, you mentioned about splash plays in one of your posts (specifically saying he's not getting TDs or first downs). Yes, he only has 2 TDs on the year, but 26 of his 66 receptions have gone for first downs. That's closing in on 2 per game (and 40% of his receptions). That is obviously impactful for the team, even if he isn't catching 40 yard passes down the seam yet (though he did have a 51-yard post reception last game).