folz
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3 hours ago, ScottLaw said:
Guess you missed the routine drop Davis had against the Bengals to essentially end the game… and come on, you know those numbers are incredibly inflated due to the KC game against a decimated secondary.
People can convince themselves all they want on Gabe, but unless Kincaid kills it as a rookie, or the Bills sign/trade for an upgrade opposite Diggs(unless someone else emerges on the team) they won’t match up with the other AFC contenders come playoff time.
Gabe had two targets that he didn't reel in in the Cincy game. Both passes the defender got a hand on the ball before it reached Gabe and the NFL ruled both as pass break-ups, not drops.
The first one (I assume this is the one you meant) comes with :19 seconds left in the third quarter (score: Cincy 24 Bills 10). Gabe was open, if Josh leads him, it's a touchdown, but Josh under throws the ball. You can see Gabe having to slow down to wait for it and in the meantime, the defender caught up, put his arm up and the ball grazed the raised hand of the defender before it got to Gabe (which changed the trajectory a bit---as Gabe is now trying to corral the ball with the crook of his outside arm---rather than in closer to his chest). Gabe still might have caught it, but the defender then swiped it out of his arms. And this was on a cold and snowy field too.
I think part of the problem with this one is Tony Romo, because on the broadcast, he first says: "That's possibly a game saving play." They show the replay again, and he says, "That's a little bit of a drop though...that ball was perfectly thrown...Gabe Davis doesn't normally..." And then they show the replay again, but most Bills fans are already screaming at Gabe for a drop. Then Tony says, "Ehhhhh, it might have tipped his finger for a second" [meaning the defender's finger] "Good form at the end by Taylor Britt." This miss was more on Josh than Gabe imo, if the ball was out in front, TD. Could Gabe have still caught it and held on, possibly...but it wasn't a "routine drop."
The second one comes with 7:32 left in the 4th quarter (score: Cincy 27 Bills 10). Busted play/scramble drill. Josh's throw to the front right corner of the end zone wasn't just way behind Gabe, but it was even behind the defender who was trailing Gabe. The defender had to reach back to even get his hand on the ball and he was behind Davis.
Oh and btw, Gabe did pretty good against Miami in the playoffs too (not just the KC game): 113 yards and a TD vs. the Phins.
No one is saying Gabe doesn't need to clean up some of the drops from last year, but some of his detractors blame him for a lot of drops that they would forgive other receivers for. And as I have stated a number of times on the site, Gabe Davis was not the problem with the offense last year, it was interior offensive line, lack of a consistent run game, and no slot receiver. All which the team addressed. The lack of a quality slot and run game allowed many teams to bracket both Diggs and Davis. And yet despite the drops, the bracketing, the ankle, Josh's elbow, Gabe still put up excellent stats for a #2 WR.
We bolstered the OL, the RBs, and the slot position. We now have 5 guys that could play a slot-like role (Kincaid, Harty, Shakir, Sherfield, Hines). All of this should help free up both outside receivers a lot more and I guarantee you that Gabe has worked like a beast in the offseason on his hands. I think a healthy Gabe, with the improvements on offense, will have a very good year this season.
But, either of us could be right or wrong...we'll just have to wait and see...
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16 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:
Do agree on the offensive line. Still, relying on Davis to be your #2 receiver in targets is asking for trouble come playoff time…. Not sure what you mean we are just as strong as a group with Philly and KC? I’d take both their offensive lines and skills groups over the Bills.
Is it?
Gabe's playoff stats over the last two years (4 games):
18 of 26 (69.2 catch %) for 389 yards and 6 TDs
On a per game average that equals: 5 of 7 for 97 yards and 1.5 TDs per game.
Playoffs don't seem to be a problem for Gabe.
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1 hour ago, Chaos said:
Lets just agree it is much closer to 100 than to 50
For what it's worth, the precise number of head coaches appearing in a Super Bowl for the first time is 60 (25 head coaches made it to at least 2 SBs, with Belichick at the top with 9 appearances).
There have been 306 NFL head coaches in the Super Bowl era (coached 1966 or later)
There have been 57 Super Bowls
60 NFL head coaches have made a Super Bowl appearance (19.6% of all head coaches, in the SB era)
35 NFL head coaches have won a Super Bowl (only 11.44% of all head coaches, in the SB era)
Just FYI to anyone who is interested.
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On 6/24/2023 at 4:21 PM, Einstein said:
The tenure of Sean McDermott as head coach and the appropriate "leash" to allow him to lead this team to the Super Bowl has been a topic of considerable debate on this forum. While there's a consensus that he deserves additional time, the crux of the argument lies in determining the precise length of this leash.
To shed light on this, I conducted a simple data study, examining the trajectory of every NFL head coach who has led their team to the Super Bowl (not necessarily winning, just reaching the final game) over the past 40 NFL seasons.
Here is what the data revealed:
- On average, it takes a head coach 4.2 seasons to reach his first Super Bowl.
- Only 5 coaches in the past 40 years have made their inaugural Super Bowl appearance after 7 seasons of head coaching. This is particularly relevant as Sean McDermott is about to enter his seventh season as head coach
- The most frequent timeline for a coach's first Super Bowl appearance is two years, closely followed by five years. This trend suggests that many coaches are capable of assembling a Super Bowl-worthy team within the first 5 years of their tenure (77% of these coaches managed to make the Super Bowl within their first 5 seasons)
First of all, I find it interesting that you chose to include head coaches who have appeared in, but not won a Super Bowl because if McDermott took the Bills to the Super Bowl, but lost, you would be all over him saying, see he can't win the big game when it counts. From reading your posts, I am pretty sure you wouldn't be happy that he got us to a SB, you would be calling for his head because he lost it.
Secondly, I haven't crunched all of your data to see if it is correct, but there have been at least 7 coaches, not 5, who didn't make their inaugural Super Bowl until after 7 seasons of head coaching (there may be more, but I'm not sure as I only looked at Super Bowl winning coaches, not all coaches who have appeared in a Super Bowl).
And while your data can show some averages of what HAS happened, it is by no means predictive of what CAN or MAY happen.
Here are a some coaches who (at least generally) buck your trends/averages (again, I only looked at SB winning coaches):
Coach Years to 1st SB appearance Years to 1st Super Bowl victory
Tom Landry 11 12
Bill Belichick 7 7
Andy Reid 6 21
Tom Coughlin 12 12
Pete Carroll 8 8
Chuck Noll 6 6
Bill Cowher 4 14
Tony Dungy 11 11
Dick Vermeil 5 10
John Madden 8 8
Gary Kubiak 9 9
Bruce Arians 8 8
Some damn fine coaches on that list.
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5 hours ago, PBF81 said:
At this point in time, and contrasted with his modern peers that also had QBs of Allen's caliber, McD's closer to those that haven't made it than to the Belichicks and Tomlin's of the world. That's pretty much indisputable. I also don't recall Belichick or Tomlin much less some of the others giving away playoff games like McD has either. Certainly "13 Seconds" ranks up there with the historical worst.
The narrative is that he was some kind of stellar DC in Carolina. I view him as having been incredibly average. He also had Keuchly, one of the best MLBs of the modern era and in league history.
Yet, his Scoring defenses ranked 27th, 18th, 2nd 21st, 6th, and 26th and with yardage Ds not ranked much better. In short, on average patently average.
In his big moments to shine, namely the Super Bowl in the 2015 season, where the Panthers which had allowed an average of 19 PPG that season, lost the Super Bowl to an offense ranked 19th in Scoring (22 PPG) by allowing them to score 24. Perhaps the most damning element of that is that Denver was led by Peyton Manning at 39, who posted a cataclysmically horrible season throwing for 9 TDs (31st), 17 INTs (31st), and a rating of 67.9. (34th) leaving the Broncos entirely one-dimensional.
Yet, despite allowing an average 19 PPG, McD's Defense allowed 24 points to that team that had averaged 22 PPG.
Now, I'm not saying that this is what we can expect, I'm also not saying that we shouldn't expect "more of the same" as such, but it without any question further fuels the fires surrounding McD's big-game capability and competency.
In the playoffs the year prior, 2014, the Panthers were ousted in the Divisional round also largely fueled by poor defense which allowed 24 points and 348 yards to a team ranked 10th in offense. Either way, his D definitely did not step it up.
In their only other playoff appearance in the year before that one, 2013, McD's third in Carolina, McD's 2nd ranked Scoring and 2nd ranked Yardage D which had allowed an average of 15 PPG that season, allowed Colin Kaepernick and the Niner's 11th-ranked scoring offense to score 23 for the loss.
Despite what some want to see, there's an extended history by McD of underachievement and choking in the playoffs.
Care to discuss?
And BTW, I didn't cherry-pick anything there, that's McD's history as a DC in Carolina and in every final playoff game of the three seasons that the Panthers made the playoffs.
You throw a lot things out there with absolutely no context or awareness of what actually happened and why. You just look at point totals and make broad, sweeping judgements that aren't accurate.
First of all, no one is comparing McD to Belichick. You really can't compare anyone to Belichick. The only reason that Belichick is in the conversation is that the OP was trying to make a case that any defensive head coach who called their own plays was not successful. They (Belichick, Carroll, and Tomlin) were brought up to show that the premise is incorrect. There have been defensive head coaches who called their own plays who were successful. None were meant to be direct comparisons to McD though.
But since you brought up comparisons of contemporary coaches with good QBs: in recent posts, I showed that Sean Payton (who is considered a great coach, albeit offensive rather than defensive) only made one Super Bowl in 14 years with HOF QB Drew Brees. They missed the playoffs 5 times during that run too. And after winning a Super Bowl, Mike Tomlin went 13 years without another appearance with Ben Rothlisberger as his QB. In Tomlin's last 10 years, he has had 4 top 10 defensive finishes (by yards) with a 24th, 21st, and 18th place defensive finish in there too. In the last 6 years, McDermott's defense has 4 top 10 defensive rankings. So, some comparisons might be closer than you think (not quite so indisputable).
Secondly, if you think "13 seconds" is one of the worst coaching blunders ever, then all I have to say is you must be very young and/or have not really watched that much football.
And as others have pointed out in other threads, yards is a much better stat to judge a DC rather than points, as total points do not account for field position, defensive and special teams points, etc (as you'll see below). But you keep using points only because it fits your argument better.
McDermott's defensive rankings by yards in Carolina (2011-2016) were: 28, 10, 2, 10, 6, 21. That is four top ten finishes in 6 years. Even counting the two down years, that equates to a 12.83 average placing.
You do also realize that in 2010, the Carolina Panthers were the worst team in the league. So, Sean and Ron Rivera were coming into a total rebuild that first year. The Panthers drafted Cam Newton in the first round and traded away their second round pick. They didn't give the defense much help that first year. Also, Luke Kuechly wasn't drafted until 2012, so McD did not have him the first two years in Carolina. And you could also say that McD helped Kuechly become the player he was, so there's that too. McD's defense also revived Thomas Davis' career (Davis played 15 years and 5 of his 7 best seasons were under McD). What about Josh Norman? He had an All-Pro season under McD's development after being a late 5th round draft pick. As far as player development, you have to give McD some credit (Hyde, Poyer, Milano, Tre, Tauron, Dane, etc.).
So, McDermott's two down years in Carolina were his first year, 2011, when he was coming into the worst team in the league at that time. And his last year, 2016.
Let's look at the 2016 Panthers. They were coming off of losing the Super Bowl (SB hangover perhaps?). The team lost both starting CBs (Josh Norman---contract issue, and Charles Tillman---retirement). McDermott had to start two rookie CBs all year. The team also lost Safety Roman Harper, DT Dwan Edwards, and DE Jared Allen. He lost 3/4 of his secondary before the season started and they were not replaced with top-end players. Also, Kuechly missed 6 games that year, Newton missed 4 games, his rookie corners missed 6 games combined, Mario Addison missed 4 games, the O-line was plagued with injuries, etc. That team was decimated by injuries on top of their off-season losses.
As to the Super Bowl, you do realize that the #1 Carolina offense committed 4 turnovers and only scored 10 points right? One turnover was a sack-strip fumble by Newton that was returned by Denver for a TD (do those 7 points go against McD's defense?). Another turnover was a second sack-strip fumble that Denver recovered on Carolina's 4-yard line. The Panthers special teams also gave up a 61-yard punt return. So, for 18 of Denver's 24 points, the Broncos offense needed to gain a total of 18 yards. But no, you're right, it was all McDermott's fault, choking in the post season again. Basically, McD's defense gave up 6 points and the Carolina offense and special teams gave up 18 points. Do you see why point total is not the best stat to use when looking at a defense? Also, in the previous game, the NFC Championship, Carolina held Arizona to 15 points.
Besides, since 1990, 26 of 34 Super Bowl winning teams scored 24 points or more. In the last 10 years, only 1 Super Bowl winning team was held under 23 points. So, 24 points isn't some massive defensive failure, when going up against playoff/Super Bowl caliber teams, even if the points had all been on the defense.
And guess what, in that 2013 playoff loss, the Panther's offense also only scored 10 points. Newton had two interceptions and the Panthers turned the ball over on downs once.
In the 2014 playoffs, the Panthers held Arizona to 16 points in the Wild Card round, then lost to Seattle 31-17. The first three offensive possessions for the Panthers in the first half of that game were a punt, a Newton interception near mid-field, and then a Newton fumble on their own 28-yard line. Carolina's first three possessions of the 2nd half were a punt, punt, Newton interception returned 90 yards for a TD. Hardly seems like you can put that game on the defense either.
You always need context when looking at stats. McDermott's time in Carolina was actually very successful, proven by him being a top HC candidate in 2017---because the people who hire head coaches obviously look a lot deeper than points against.
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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Has Tomlin ever called defensive plays as a Head Coach though? I know Belichick has, and Carroll has (although not when he won a championship).
Belichick did it between 2009 and 2012 and has again since 2017.
Yes, it appears that Tomlin created the defensive gameplans and called his own plays for at least 2015-2021, possibly a few years prior to that also (2012/3-2014) if the previous Pittsburgh DC is to be believed. And even as the new DC took over last year, the reports were that it was believed that the new DC would call most of the plays. So...
https://www.steelernation.com/steelers-mike-tomlin-relinquish
https://sports.yahoo.com/controlling-steelers-defense-nothing-hc-185211010.html
Similar to Reid in KC (and others) with offense, I think there have been many defensive head coaches who have had a "Coordinator" in title, but were really the one controlling the defense.
I think this sometimes gets confused for two reasons, 1. There is a stigma amongst some media and fans that it is too much for a Head Coach to also take on coordinator duties, and 2. it is a courtesy to the "named" coordinator to not say they aren't actually in full charge (for future opportunities, pride, etc.). So, it isn't something that you necessarily advertise.
But, when you promote young guys from within (like Tomlin has), it's usually because they are there to run your defense. A guy like Leslie Frasier is different. He has been a DC and HC before. It is a much bigger pride/ego issue to not let him call the defense (be in charge in a way). Similar to Mike Tomlin inheriting Dick LeBeau. It appears that LeBeau called the defense early on in their time together, but at some point Tomlin took over the play calling duties (LeBeau's last couple of years). Then LeBeau leaves for Tennessee and Tomlin twice promotes from within, but obviously he had full control of the defense.
McDermott just doesn't have someone titled "defensive coordinator" on staff now, but I suspect that "Senior Defensive Assistant" Al Holcomb will fill a similar role as DCs whose defensive head coach is really running the show. And at least with McDermott making it clear that he is in charge and calling plays, there will be no confusion or rumors or whatever. Everyone knows the defense...and the whole team, rests squarely on his shoulders.
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2 hours ago, Chaos said:
What do Wade Phillips, Lovie Smith, Rex Ryan and Sean McDermott all have in common?
The same thing that these three do (or have):
Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, Mike Tomlin...
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39 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:
Isn't Sean Payton overrated though? Like I remember reading something where he's had way more bad seasons than you'd expect from an elite coach, even if accounting that they were in cap hell for a bit.
He had 14 seasons in New Orleans with one of the greatest QBs ever (Drew Brees). He did win a Super Bowl of course, but he also missed the playoffs 5 times (with Brees as his QB) and his playoff record was 9-8 with Drew.
And you want a comparison to McDermott? How about New Orleans losing in the divisional round of the 2017-18 playoffs on the last play of the game (the Minnesota Miracle) and then losing again the following year to the Rams in OT. New Orleans led on the scoreboard the entire game, until the Rams tied it up with a field goal with 15 seconds left in the game. The Rams went on to win the game in OT. [And both of those seasons, NO was probably most people's favorite to at least represent the NFC in the SB, if not win it.] Not sure why those things get forgiven for other coaches (Payton, Reid, etc.) but not McD.
Doesn't mean Sean Payton is overrated or not a great coach, but it does point out that even a very good coach with an elite QB doesn't just waltz into the Super Bowl every year. Only one Super Bowl appearance in 14 years with an all-time, HOF QB.
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7 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:
There are lots of coaches in many leagues who were fired after good seasons and great track records.
- Milwaukee Bucks just fired their coach who won them a Championship after getting them the #1 seed in this year playoffs but losing 1st rd.
- Bayern Munich fired their coach mid season while in 1st place while in a 11 years straight of league Championships
- Marty Schottenheimer (who many compare McD with) was fired after a 14-4 record but poor playoff performance
- HOF coach Tony Dungy was fired from Bucks after making playoffs
- Bruce Boudreau was fired right after winning the Presidents Trophy in NHL
I appreciate you responding with actual examples. 👍
But, hard to compare other sports leagues. So, I'll stick to the NFL.
So, ok, you gave me two NFL examples. Two coaches still doesn't make it standard to fire a winning coach, but let me counter further.
Marty Shottenheimer was in his 21st year as a HC at 64 years old with no SB appearances (as opposed to MCD's 6 years at 49 years old). In 5 years in SD (where he was fired from), Marty made the playoffs 2 years and missed the playoffs 3 years (McD's made 5 of 6). Shottenheimer's career playoff record at that point was 5 and 13 (McD is 4-5). Marty also had a 4-12 and an 8-8 season during that stint. And his last two years in SD: missed the playoffs, lost in Wild Card round to the Jets. Marty was 0-2 in the playoffs in 5 years with SD. Sean has 4 playoff wins.
Dungy is probably a better comp. Fired after his sixth season in TB. He made playoffs 4 of 6 years. But his playoff record was only 2-4. Win percentage including playoffs in their first 6 years is Dungy (.549) and McD (.622). And though he had some good records and playoff appearances, Dungy's last three seasons in Tampa were 11-5, 10-6, 9-7 with a 21-3 Wild Card loss to Philly (2000) followed by a 31-9 Wild Card loss to Philly (2001)---no playoff wins in last two seasons. I could see how an owner might see that as being on the decline. McD's last three years were 13-3, 11-6, 13-3 with two playoff wins and then a 42-36 Divisional round loss to KC and a 27-10 loss in the Divisional round to Cincy. Still kind of a different picture between the two.
So, even granting these two examples, as I said, it is still few and far between (NFL coaches who are winning getting fired); but even looking at these two examples, both have a much better case for being fired than McDermott does at this point.
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12 hours ago, Buffalo619 said:
Guy is a drama king. The culture has turned toxic. Superbowl this year or move on. We can find better.
Ridiculous. How did he go from how he handled the Damar situation last year and all of his players, the media, and fans praising him for that, from every player talking about how great team chemistry is in Buffalo, and players wanting to return to the team (Cole, John Brown, Jordan P, Shaq, Poyer), etc. to a toxic culture? Because one, ONE, player, who I love, but has shown to be a bit of an out-spoken player in the past, had a bit of an issue about something?
And Drama King? Please. Stefon and the media caused the drama, not McD. But he's a drama king because when a reporter specifically said, "how concerning is it?" He answered "very concerning." It's a loaded question. If he says he's not concerned then people are upset with him that he's not taking the Diggs situation seriously, if he answers that he's concerned, then he's creating drama. No doubt Stef had an issue that the team needed to address, but everything else was just media hype (because they want dramas to talk about). Or maybe it's because one former GM with a podcast is intimating that Frasier left because McD is some dictator. Sounds to me more like a, "I wasn't fired, I quit" kind of thing...if even true or coming from Frasier in the first place.
11 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said:So NO coach can now be fired unless the team has a replacement already that is “absolutely, positively, 100% be better?”
When has that been the standard in any sport? No coach would EVER be fired if you have to have the “absolutely, positively, 100% be better“ guarantee because you could never guarantee that.
Well, that's taking it to the extreme. If you are talking standards, then yes, coaches get fired all of the time without the replacement being set, but most of those coaches were fired for having losing seasons, missing playoffs, etc.
I don't think that it is standard to fire a coach who just completed a three-year run of 13-3, 11-6, and 13-3 seasons. Would love to see an example of a coach who was fired immediately after a three-year run like that (my guess is that they are very few and far between).
11 hours ago, Since1981 said:“would another team hire Bills HC away?” No.
“would the bills hire 4 other HC if any choice?” Yes.
We don’t have a top 15 HC. We’d try many swings for top 15 QB. HC should be treated similarly
These are your opinions, not facts.
If Terry fired Sean at the end of last season because he felt like some of you do, I guarantee that McDermott would have another HC gig either this year or next. A guy who turned around a team who was in a 17-year playoff funk to go to the playoffs 5 of 6 years, has a .639 win percentage, and headed the staff that drafted and developed Josh Allen. Easy hire for a number of teams.
When you say "the bills," who do you mean. Are we talking Terry and Beane? If so, I doubt there are many coaches that they would dump McDermott for (if any) at this point.
Well you and Ross Tucker agree on that, but again, not a fact...just two opinions. Many people would have Sean McDermott as a top 10 coach in the league right now. Over the last 5 years, the Bills have the third best record in the NFL (only 1 win behind second place New Orleans).
6 hours ago, newcam2012 said:You say "firing McD would be a huge gamble." Would it really? What makes you think that?
You don't think a solid coach can win a lot of games with Allen as their QB?
Do you think McD is irreplaceable?
McD has consistently come up short come playoff time. Correct? Of course things could improve or get worse. There's no guarantee of either.
Your premise of firing McD being a huge gamble isn't how I see it.
Imho, it's worth the risk because I'm not convinced McD will lead the Bills to the SB. I have a nice sample size to evaluate.
In the last nine years, there were 114 playoff spots filled by teams. That means 114 chances for head coaches to "not come up short" and win a Super Bowl. But in those 9 years, only 6 Head Coaches have won a Super Bowl. That means 95% of head coaches who made the playoffs over the last nine years also came up short.
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13 hours ago, MPL said:
This bozo clearly doesn’t know that we do things differently in the AFC East. In the AFC East, when a team is the division champ, they reign for at least 10 years. Those are the rules.
😆 Not too far wrong:
Dolphins won 10 AFC East championships in 15 years (from 1971-1985)
Buffalo won 6 AFC East titles in 8 years (from 1988-1995)
New England won 19 AFC East titles in 24 years (from 1996-2019)
Tough to be a Jets fan:
Team # of AFC East titles*
Pats 22
Phins 13
Bills 13
Colts 6 (Balt/Ind was only in the AFC East from 1970-2002)
Oilers 4 (haven't played in the AFC East since 1969)
Jets 4 (they do have their Broadway Joe, historic Super Bowl though)
*From Wikipedia, counting from 1960 (starting as the AFL Eastern Conference).
I actually like that the division got tougher and won't be a cakewalk. Should make for some good, old school football, where division games are heavyweight bouts. We haven't seen that in the AFC East since before the rise of Tommy and the Hoodie at the turn of the century. And in the long run, hopefully it will just make the Bills more battle-tested for the playoffs.
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6 hours ago, Einstein said:
There is no “yeah, but”.
It’s like 2+2=10.
Its just wrong.
Reid accomplished farrrr more than McD. And with a worse QB.
McNabb and Reid
I think a lot of people are underestimating Donovan McNabb. I'm not saying he was better than Josh, but he was no slouch (or not worse enough to use that as some kind of argument).
McNabb was selected #2 overall in the 1999 draft. Played 13 years, 6 Pro Bowls, was MVP and offensive player of the year in 2000; and is still currently 27th on the all-time QB passing yards list and 33rd on the all-time QB TD passes list. He also had almost 3,500 rushing yards (10th most for QBs) and 29 rushing TDs. I mean, he was good enough for a lot of people to at least debate if he deserves to be in the HOF. He won't make it in, but just saying, Reid wasn't working with some journeyman QB all those years in Philly.
Reid had prime McNabb for 5 of his first 6 years.
McDermott has had prime Josh for 3 of his first 6 seasons.
Reid got his franchise QB year 1 rather than year 2, and McNabb was much more pro-ready than Josh was coming in.
Sure, Reid made a Super Bowl appearance (not a win) and more conference championship appearances in his first 6 years than McDermott, but if you look at an overall snapshot, there are definitely some comparisons.
First 6 years:
Coach overall record win % Playoff record
Reid 64-32 67% 7-5
McDermott 62-35 64% 4-5
13 seconds
People just need to get over the 13 seconds already. The way that game was going, whoever had the ball last (in regulation or OT) was going to score. Neither defense was stopping either of those offenses all day long. Ok, so let's say we squib it. We take off what 2 seconds, but KC probably has the ball somewhere between the 20-40. So, could have been about the same or worse and not enough time elapsed to stop Mahomes from doing what he did. We could have tried to pin them deep, but KC had Tyreek back as a returner and he had already earlier gashed us with a big punt return. Say he takes it at the 10 and takes it out to the 40, only wasting a handful of seconds or brings it back all the way. Or who is to say if we did pin them on the 7 yard line, Mahomes doesn't still come up with 2-3 miraculous plays to get them in field goal range. It was as much fate/destiny as it was bad coaching. It was a heartbreaker, but y'all gotta get over it. Not to mention that coaches also learn from their mistakes and get better.
Obviously, we can agree to disagree about the Cincinnati loss being understandable due to what the team had to endure last year.
Sean Payton
And to the other posters who taut Sean Payton, yes, he won a Super Bowl. But, he had 14 years with one of the greatest QBs of all time and only had the one Super Bowl appearance. His overall win percentage is 63% (lower than McD's). His team (with Drew Brees) missed the playoffs 6 of those 14 years. His playoffs record was 9-8 in those years, and 6 of those 8 losses were in the Wild Card or Divisional round.
It's Not That Easy
I don't point all of this out to put down Sean Payton or Andy Reid, they are both great coaches. Just trying to point out that winning a Super Bowl, even with an elite, or all-time QB isn't as easy as some of you posters make it out to be. Aaron Rodgers has one Super Bowl appearance (and win) in an 18-year career. Drew Brees has one Super Bowl appearance (and win) in a 20-year career. Two of the greatest of all-time, 38 years, 2 SB appearances. A ton of things need to go right to win a Super Bowl, beyond having a great QB, and if you don't win one, it doesn't mean you suck either.
[I posted this in a thread a while back for those who think you can't win a SB as a HC after year 6.]
"14 of 33 Super Bowl winning head coaches (42.42% of them) had not won a Super Bowl by the end of their 6th season as head coach, including: Bill Belichick, Tom Landry, Andy Reid, Tom Coughlin, Pete Carroll, Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, Hank Stramm, Dick Vermeil, John Madden, Gary Kubiak, and Bruce Arians. 12 of those 14 took at least 8 seasons (on up to Reid's 20 years) before winning the big game."
And finally, beyond talent, coaching, chemistry, etc., there is also the element of luck in football that so many don't seem to want to acknowledge for some reason (crazy circumstances, injuries, refs, bad bounces, etc.). Remember the Minnesota Miracle? The Diggs catch that probably kept New Orleans from going to and winning another Super Bowl. Is that on Sean Peyton, like so many put the 13 seconds on McD? What about all of Reid's so-called blunders in the NFC championship games early in his career? Was that Reid or luck? Maybe it was just bad luck for Reid and Peyton, but obviously bad coaching for McDermott. I don't know, there always seem to be excuses for other coaches that aren't allowed for McDermott. And according to some posters, everything McD has done is due to Josh Allen, but when it comes to Belichick, Reid, Peyton, etc. I never hear the only reason they have a good record is because they had an elite QB. You can't have it both ways.
Only 3 other active coaches have a higher winning percentage than Sean (LaFleur, Belichick, and Reid). Sean (.639%) falls between Reid (.641%) and Tomlin (.638%).
Sean McDermott has more than earned a couple more cracks at this thing (barring any sort of major collapse), imo.
P.S. Sorry for the novel-like length, for any of you who actually read this. 😊
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3 hours ago, PBF81 said:
Here's the rub for us, Beane owes his tenure as a GM to McD. McD has carefully chosen assistants that won't threaten his tenure as a head coach as well. I question whether that's in the best interests of the team or merely in his own best interests. I'm not sure I see Beane firing McD since, strangely and perhaps the first time ever in the NFL, the head coach hired the GM, both having been from this ill-fated Carolina connection. In the same way, if Dorsey were to get fired after the season, I don't expect McD to hire an OC that could easily replace him, I'd expect another internal promotion or some other OJT type bases upon McD's MO. So IMO that catalyst will likely be Pegula. Hopefully he's not too preoccupied with his personal matters to take that interest.
I don't know, the posters that call themselves realists seem to throw just as much speculation and opinion out there as any so-called homers do. But if you are negative and say you are a realist then apparently your opinions and speculation are more factual than others.
I won't debate the emotional toll of last year (as it has been debated endlessly and nothing will seem to change opinions either way). But, there is a very real human element to sport that I think some are discounting too easily. But I'll agree to disagree there.
But what forms your bolded "opinion" above? You make it sound like McD is so afraid of losing his team or job that he hires lesser quality coaches to protect himself (like some paranoid dictator). First of all, that is total speculation/opinion on your part. But just to counter a bit:
McD has hired three former NFL head coaches, a former NFL assistant head coach, and a head coach from Alabama. Plus he hired Brian Daboll who left Buffalo to become a head coach. He's had many assistants (at lower positions) that have been former NFL coordinators. And Dorsey could be considered by some as an up-and-coming offensive coach.
Maybe you don't like his coaching hires and think there are some young, hot-shot coaches out there that we should have hired...but I can see no evidence that McD is purposely choosing lesser assistant coaches to protect himself.
We get it, you don't like McDermott as the head coach of the Bills, you don't like Dorsey, and you're luke-warm on Beane. Yet, we are enjoying a resurgence of Buffalo Bills football because of McD and Beane. We wouldn't have Josh Allen without McD and Beane. We wouldn't have the culture and family-atmosphere that includes the fans without Beane and McD, etc., etc. I know, you don't think McDermott can take us all the way...and at this point, that is a fair argument (I disagree, but that's ok). All I'm saying (to end with a couple of cliches) is be careful what you wish for because the grass isn't always greener. And besides, McDermott is not getting fired this year and probably not next year either (unless the Bills have a total collapse of some sort), so in a way, you just have to suck it up and enjoy the ride anyhow, regardless of how you feel about him.
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No question they have had a hard time putting a solid 5 together on the O-line over the years. There always seems to be one or two weak links.
But, Cowherd kind of intimates that they have ignored the offense (to any viewers who aren't paying attention), just because we didn't sign a big name like Hopkins.
But when you compare the losses and gains on the offense, it is hard to push a narrative that they aren't trying to help Josh. Of course, we have to wait to see if it all works out, but they tried to improve the three major areas of weakness from last year (and each with multiple options): interior O-line, the run game, and the slot receiving position. Gabe Davis (WR #2) wasn't the problem with the offense last year, it was the three areas just mentioned. And the Bills addressed those without breaking the bank (as we were up against the cap). But, when you're looking in from the outside (but not really paying attention---like Cowherd), all you know are the big names and big deals that happen, but ignore all of the other signings and the context and reasons for those signings.
Losses Gains
Trubisky K. Allen
McKenzie Kincaid
Harty
Sherfield
Shorter
Singletary Harris
Murray
Hines (added late last year)
Saffold Torrence
McGovern
Edwards
Broeker
Shell
Boettger (out all last year)
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2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:
Have to disagree that dj Moore is a comp for Davis
Moore is solidly WR1 material
Also worth mentioning that Mike Williams is usually third in Chargers offense target share behind Keenan Allen when healthy and Ekeler
I'm not saying Gabe is as good as Moore (or deserves 20 mil/yr), I am only pointing out that their stats for 2022 were the most similar across the board. Of course, I also noted that Moore was the only WR I listed that didn't have a top QB throwing him the ball (which matters too). Was just trying to see where Gabe slotted in with other receivers stat-wise last year to get an idea of what his value might be or what his agent might argue for. But of course, stats are not the end all be all.
But if you break last year's WRs down into tiers of similar production, then Gabe's stats place him in a tier of 11 players (who ranked 25-35 in rec yards last season):
Now, this is just my gut opinion, but I think Gabe would be valued more highly than guys like Zay Jones (8mil), Jakobi Meyers (11 mil), and Donovan Peoples-Jones (870,000). But what about the rest of the group (are they all above Gabe?): Allen Lazard (11 mil), George Pickens (rookie deal), Courtland Sutton (15 mil), Drake London (rookie deal), Diontae Johnson (18.355 mil), D.J. Moore (20.628 mil), and Mike Williams (20 mil).
That's quite a range of payments for similar production. So what do you think? Below the top three, but above the bottom 4? So, somewhere between 12 and 17 mil for Gabe? If so, what would people think of Gabe getting say 12-15 million/year. And if you expect him to be paid less, what's the reasoning (JuJu only getting 8.5 mil, or other ideas)?
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9 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:
I'd slot him somewhere between Zay Jones and Valdez Scantling. Which would put him in the 8-10m AAV range.
Agree with OP, I'm a Gabe fan. He can't do everything some teams ask their #2 WRs to do, but he is a great downfield WR and young/still ability to improve.
I don't know about those comps. I think teams would have a higher value on Gabe than those two. But it's an interesting question...what is his comp/what is his value?
2022 stats
recs/tgts yards yds/rec TDs
Zay Jones: 63/93 823 10.0 5
Marquez V-S: 42/81 687 16.4 2
Gabe: 48/93 836 17.4 7
DJ Moore: 63/118 888 14.1 7
M. Williams: 63/93 895 14.2 4
JuJu: 78/101 933 12.0 3
Sutton: 64/109 829 13.0 2
Just based on last year's stats, D.J. Moore is actually Gabe's closest comp, and he and Wiliiams both have contracts that average $20,000,000; while Zay and Marquez average $8,000,000 and $10,000,000, respectively. JuJu just signed for $8,500,000 avg/year. Courtland Sutton, who compares well, is making $15,000,000. Hunter Renfrow is making 16 million and Corey Davis is making 12.5 mil.
And before you call out Gabe's catch percentage, the only players listed above with a significantly better catch percentage were Juju, Mike Williams, and Zay (but Zay---and JuJu to an extent-- are obviously catching a lot of shorter, high-percentage passes, as seen by their yards per reception difference). And to counter catch percentage, Gabe has that higher yards/reception and TD total.
And let's not also hear, well Gabe only has good numbers because of Josh Allen. As the names of the QBs for the other receivers listed above are: Mahomes, Herbert, Lawrence, Wilson, and...well, ok...Mayfield/Darnold/Walker (for Moore).
So, can anyone make sense of the WR market and where Davis might unbiasedly (either way) be valued? imo, I would think teams value him in the upper half of #2 WRs money. But I have no idea what that means in dollars. It appears to be anywhere between 8.5 and 20 million.
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If nothing else, it will be interesting to watch the players the Bills and their fans seem to disagree on.
It seems the Bills have more faith in Spencer Brown, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox, and Ed Oliver than many fans do...and, in a turn from the last few years, it seems the fans had more faith in Edmunds than the Bills did (while the Bills believe they have an answer at Mike, but many fans still think its a big hole). Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.
Also, as fans, we are often reacting to transactions in a vacuum (this one deal on its own). But so much goes into the decision: the cap, other players' contracts and when they are due, the market for that position, how much the cap will raise in the future, the possible availability or not of certain positions in the next draft or free agency period, player performance, did injuries or something else affect their play (weak play around them or whatever), etc., etc.
Before the deal, I probably would have been fine letting Ed play out his contract and move on like Tremaine (unless he busted out this year, but then we probably couldn't afford him). But let's face it, though he might not be elite, he is certainly no liability. He provides above average play with room still to grow (hopefully). I don't think his production would be as easily replaced or upgraded (as some seem to think) drafting at the bottom of the draft as we do and being strapped for cap space next year as well. And if he does take another step this year, then we have him at a serious bargain, rather than watching him go to another team next year for top dollar. It's not really a big risk or a win/lose scenario because at worst, we still get very solid play (maybe just not elite)...but Ed at least has a high floor...he isn't a weakness on the team by any means (just hasn't lived up to his lofty draft status yet).
These aren't easy or exact decisions. Sometimes you let a Teller go, sometimes you overpay a Star. But I do trust that Sean and Brandon at least take into account all of the variables and always try to make the best decision. And they aren't afraid to admit it and/or cut bait when they realize they were wrong. No one will be right (especially not us fans) with every decision that needs to be made. But this decision at least makes sense to me. The old, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."
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Here is a breakdown of the Bills rankings, according to that list, for easy reference:
QB: 2nd
RB: 21st
WR: 20th
TE: 11th
OL: 23rd
DL (interior): 9th
Edge: 9th
LB: 18th
CB: 9th
Saf: 1st
Overall: 3rd
Off: 9th
Def: 2nd
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He could make some plays in the slot against man coverage because of his speed, but he wasn't good against the zone, finding the spots and making himself available for his QB. He didn't have that knack/feel that most good slots like Beasley, Crowder, etc. have against zone coverage. If Crowder stayed healthy, they might have been a good tandem, but McKenzie couldn't do it on his own. Teams knew how to cover/eliminate him.
And I think Josh lost some faith in him as the season wore on as well.
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6'5" 324, 31 years old
Drafted by the Jets in the 5th round (158th overall) in 2016 draft
83 career games, 72 games started
4 years with the Jets, 2 with Seattle, 1 with Miami
Started one playoff game with Seattle
When healthy, he has generally garnered 90+% of the RT snaps for his teams (over the last 6 years, he's been a starting RT)
But it also looks like he has missed a lot of games due to injury over his career (16 games over the last 3 seasons)
Perfect depth signing. You aren't asking him to play a full season, but when he comes in, he knows how to get the job done.
I keep saying it, but Beane is trying to build an injury-proof roster (after how last season went). I love the depth the team has now...and it keeps coming.
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6 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:
I dont disagree with anything you wrote.
Define patience for us though please?
How many seasons with the best QB in franchise history do you give McD?
Do you keep him as long as he is making the playoffs but not a SB?
If they go 10-7 and miss the playoffs is he still the HC in 2024?
What if he goes 12-5 and loses in the first round at home?
I've posted multiple times, I would trade him for Jim Harbaugh in an instant. Harbaugh took a far less talented QB to a NFC Championship and the SB and came within a few yards of winning it. Harbaugh would leave Michigan in an instant for a chance to lead the Bills roster.
Well, we can disagree on Harbaugh. I definitely would not want that guy coaching the Bills. But he's at least a rational suggestion to my question.
I think definitely as long as we are a Super Bowl contending team, McD should stay put. Where would my patience run out? It depends on circumstances, of course.
But, outside of a total collapse, yes, he would still get at least 2024 for me. If we missed the playoffs this year, without multiple crazy circumstances like last year, then I would at least be open to the discussion of moving on. But, I really don't see us falling that flat this year. If we lose in the playoffs (before the AFC Championship), it would depend on to who and how. A horrible game like the Cincy game, or a bad loss to an inferior opponent, I would be really disappointed and agree that he would be on the hot seat for 2024 (but probably wouldn't move on yet). If it's the same in 2024 (no playoffs or bad playoff loss) then I would probably think it's time for another voice. So, I guess I'm saying he has earned at least two years in my book. And conversely, if the team is making it to AFC Championship games, or at worst losing close, hard fought games to say a team like KC in the divisional round, then I would still think that we're close and would probably hang on to McD longer. I just don't think there is a coach out there that will magically come in and make everything better/win the SB right away.
We all want a Super Bowl, but it's just not that easy (even with a great QB). There are a handful of great QBs in the league right now. They aren't all going to win the Super Bowl next year. I would just hate to restart everything, when we still feel so close.
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Everything we currently are (perennial playoff team, destination for free agents, family atmosphere, class organization, etc.) is because of Sean McDermott. And you don't get to where we are just by lucking into a QB. For instance, Ross Tucker's article praises Daboll and puts him at #8 in his rankings because he was impressed that he got a talent-starved roster to the playoffs in his first year. What about McDermott in 2017 (first year, team lacking talent, a worse QB than Jones---no Allen)? Didn't he do the same thing?
Only three active NFL head coaches have a higher winning percentage than McDermott (LaFleur, Belichick, and Reid). Sean is sandwiched between Reid (.641%) and Tomlin (.638%) with a .639 win percentage. And I always seem to hear, "if it weren't for Josh Allen," when it comes to McDermott. Well, what about the other guys listed above. Why isn't it, "without 'Rodgers' 'Brady' 'Mahomes/McNabb' 'Rothlisberger,' when it comes to them?
You know where McDermott does rank close to 22nd? On the NFL Head Coaching All-time winning percentage list. McDermott currently sits in 21st place...all-time.
Plus, Andy Reid is generally considered a genius, HOF coach now that he has a couple of Lombardis. But how long did it take him to get the trophies and how many playoff loses before finally winning the big game? I'll tell you, he coached 20 years before winning a Super Bowl and his playoff record was 11-14. I don't point that out to say Reid isn't every bit as good as people say, but to show that even as a great coach, you need a lot of things to go your way to win the big one. I'm also not saying we should wait on McDermott for 20 years. I'm just saying have some patience. Just because McDermott hasn't gotten to or won a Super Bowl in 6 years doesn't mean he can't/won't ever do so.
In fact, 14 of 33* Super Bowl winning head coaches (42.42% of them) had not won a Super Bowl by the end of their 6th season as head coach, including: Bill Belichick, Tom Landry, Andy Reid, Tom Coughlin, Pete Carroll, Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, Hank Stramm, Dick Vermeil, John Madden, Gary Kubiak, and Bruce Arians. 12 of those 14 took at least 8 seasons (on up to Reid's 20 years) before winning the big game. And of the other guys who did it sooner (first six years), there are a lot of cases like Mike Tomlin. Won a Super Bowl in his 2nd year, but has since coached 14 more seasons without another win. (He did make it to the SB and lost in year 4, but that is still 12 years since his last SB appearance).
And I honestly don't think there are many other coaches who could have handled the tragedies and turmoil of last season as well or as classy as Sean did. He is a great leader with a great winning percentage. Why on Earth would he be on the hot seat or ranked so low on a HC list? It just doesn't add up. One bad playoff game and two bad plays in a great, classic playoff game erases everything else he has done? Ridiculous.
And if the Bills were to move on, who are you bringing in that is going to guarantee you a Super Bowl? There are only 8 active head coaches who have won a Super Bowl, and 6 of those coaches are entrenched where they are (all 7-23 years with their teams). So they aren't going anywhere. That leaves McCarthy (4th year in Dallas) and Pederson (2nd year in JAX), if you could or would want to pry them loose (not likely). Anyone else hasn't won a Super Bowl either, just like McDermott. So, there is no guarantee that they will...and a more than equally good chance that they would actually make the team worse. So, what's the problem with McDermott again?
[*There are actually 35 SB winning head coaches, but I didn't include the 2 whose careers came mostly during the pre-Super Bowl era, for obvious reasons.]
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2 hours ago, pennstate10 said:
It’s behind a paywall, but some snippets
#1. Joe Buscaglia. Analytic, careful, watches all-22,has good sources.
#9. Tony Romo. Insightful but talks a bit too much. Slipped over the past 2 years.
#101. 6 yo girl with crayons. Does a good job of staying within the lines.
#151. Stephen A Smith. Guys a r..l. Skip that,don’t want to get banned.#199. Ross Tucker. Smart, but just throws out click bait. You might consider him an expert at that. A master baiter.
#200. Skip Bayless. See #199.Do you have a link to #101. Curious how the 6-year old girl feels about Josh's turnovers. [And can she draw a Bills logo from memory with her crayons?]
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I don't know if it will be the best Bills offense ever (love the enthusiasm though), but I have a hard time understanding anyone who doesn't think they have improved from last year. Sure, no big name FA...but that's not really what we needed (or could afford). We needed players to fit certain roles. While it's great to have MJ and Pippen, you still need your Cartwrights, Paxsons, Kerrs, Rodmans, etc. to win a championship.
Just look at the net gains (for an offense that was already 3rd in points last season):
Losses Gains
Case Keenum Kyle Allen
Motor Damien Harris
Latavius Murray
Hines (full offseason/year with team)
McKenzie Kincaid
Harty
Sherfield
Shorter
Saffold McGovern
Torrence
Edwards
Broeker
Boettger (out all last year)
Keenum and Allen are a push at worst, and you could argue that Saffold and McKenzie are addition by subtraction. So, our only big loss is Singletary, replaced by Harris, Murray, Hines, and 2nd year Cook.
The only other losses were receivers (none of whom played more than 6 games or did much of anything for the team last year):
Cole (2 games)
JB (3 games)
Crowder (4 games)
Kumerow (6 games)
Gentry (3 games)
Hodgins (2 games)
Plus Dorsey going into his second year, Kromer 2nd year, Cook 2nd year, Hines full off season/regular season, etc., etc.
Of course, not every addition (FA/rookie) will hit, or bust out, or whatever, but just look at the options we have now. And we don't need them all to be superstars (except Kincaid, hopefully), we just need them to play solid ball in the role that they have been brought in for.
I don't know about best Bills offense ever, but I do believe this is, by far, the deepest team that we have had since the Super Bowl years (on offense and defense)...Beane and McD are trying to make sure we don't have a repeat of last season...and I am all for it. What Beane did to fill out the team/fix issues from last season with a lack of funds this year is top notch, imo.
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Why is Tyrod Taylor not more revered in the Bills fan base?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I don't think anyone hated Tyrod then or hates Tyrod now. It's just that at the end of his tenure, most fans could see that he wasn't going to get us where we wanted to go and wanted a change, an upgrade. It had absolutely nothing to do with race (please). It had to do with football. We have wanted to move on from every QB, white or black (including Fitz), who couldn't get it done. Most were done with Fitz by the end of his run too (and Losman and Edwards and...). Fitz just had a bigger and more likable personality, so more fans were attached to him in that way. It's laughable for anyone to pull the race card when it comes to Tyrod.
2015
League average of top 37 QBs (at least 200 pass attempts):
3,245 yards and 21 TDs
Tyrod: 3,035 yards and 20 TDs
[21 QBs had more yards and 16 QBs had more TDs than the league average in 2015]
2016
League average of top 33 QBs (at least 200 pass attempts):
3,582 yards and 22 TDs
Tyrod: 3,023 yards and 17 TDs
[19 QBs had more yards and 16 QBs had more TDs than the league average in 2016]
2017
League average of top 35 QBs (at least 200 pass attempts)
3,132 yards and 19 TDs
Tyrod: 2,799 yards and 14 TDs
[21 QBs had more yards and TDs than the league average in 2017]
Tyrod was a below average passer:
2015: 25th in pass yards and 25th in passing TDs
2016: 25th in passing yards and 24th in passing TDs
2017: 21st in passing yards and 23rd in passing TDs
And even if you add in his rushing yards, he would still be:
2015: 20th in total yards by a QB (and that's not adding in other QB's rushing stats, so could be a touch lower still)
2016: 20th in total yards by a QB (again not counting other QB's rushing stats)
2017: 21st in total yards by a QB (not counting other QB rushing stats)
He was a bottom third of the league QB any way you crack it. Of course everyone was ready to move on after 3 years of that. And there was no hidden potential left to tap. That was his 5th, 6th, and 7th year in the league. That was his ceiling. I think everyone liked Tyrod as a person, just not as their starting QB. I like Tyrod and he will always be part of Bills history for being the QB when we broke the drought, but I don't revere him because his play wasn't good enough for that type of reverence.