JDG

Beyond the fact that Lambeau was recently rennovated into a year-round tourist detination, the other thing the Packers did decades ago was to start playing half their games in Milwaukee. As such, Milwaukee is wholly part of "Packer Nation" (admittedly it was an easier sell with Green Bay being part of the same State.). Its really the Milwaukee market that drives the Packers - and Milwaukee is a good 33% bigger than Buffalo - and with a good stack of corporations in the Fortune 500 to boot (Eight(!) in Milwaukee, and two others in Wisconsin (Madison & Oshkosh)). JDG

Before getting all huffy, its worth considering that according to the US Census Bureau, the Indianpolis Urbanized Area is 36% larger than the Buffalo Urbanized Area. The Indianapolis Meto Area is also the headquarters for three companies on the Fortune 500 - that is three more than Buffalo, and includes Wellpoint at #33 overall, Eli Lilly at #133, and Cummins at #206. Not all small markets are made the same. Even if you toss in Rochester the combined population only just matches Indianapolis and Ft. Wayne - and obviously, its a lot easier to go to a game the closer you live. And in terms of corporations, while Western New York does have 3 on the Fortune 500, but two (Corning and Constellation Brands) are in the 400-500 range, and Eastman Kodak is only at #238. Buffalo isn't on the verge of losing the Bills because of a lack of fervor for the Bills. Rather it is because of decades of political decisions that have consistently pushed the area further into economic decline. JDG

Many owners recognize that the salary cap creates a levelling of the playing field - and that that levelling of the playing field has contributed significantly to the enormous popularity of the NFL. That popularity is why the NFL TV Contracts are such a gold mine... and at the end of the day, the salary cap may well mean even more money for all teams - including the big market teams - than an uncapped system would. Indeed, the big market owners like having their labor costs capped as much as any business owner does. So, its missing a bit of the point to think that the salary cap is the only big issue here. *Revenue*Sharing* is just as big, if not a bigger reason for the upcoming labor troubles than the salary cap is. JDG

I think it would make for a good T-Shirt design, but I don't see it becoming a team logo...

Go Gorillas! <===== JDG

The real question in my mind is what lost Whisenhunt the job... I always thought that he was going to be the guy there once Cowher left, and he didn't take the Cardinals job because he thought that he was still a candidate in Pittsburgh.... JDG

And Lovie Smith was the *Rams* defensive coordinator. The job of the Head Coach is not to be an über-coordinator, its to be a HEAD COACH. Its folly to evaluate a potential Head Coach on the basis of their performance as a coordinator.... JDG

And the Rooneys picked Cowher over Donahoe when one of them had to go..... Looks pretty good to me!

You have to remember that I'm thinking in terms of the 46 players you bring to a game, not the full 53 man roster. We agree that it is a reasonable approach to resign Kelsay and to tender Hargrove, which would leave us with the same four DE's - Schobel, Kelsay, Denney and Hargrove. At DT, if you bring a 4th DT to the game, you need to reduce a player at another position - probably one of the special teams linebackers. I actually kind of agree that we are likely to see a low-budget FA pickup or a late draft pick used at the DT position. I don't see at all, however, one of those players beating out the three guys that Levy and Jauron hand-picked for the position, Triplett, Williams, and McCargo for a gameday roster spot. So then the question is, do one of those guys beat out one of our special teams LB's for a gameday roster spot? Its a tough call, but my thinking here is that the answer would be "no." The same thing is true on the offensive line. A team typically brings no more than six linemen to a game, five starters, a third tackle, and a backup interior lineman. Thus, your approach is actually very similar to mine, the only difference being that I have a free agent and Preston starting at Guard, and you have a free agent and a re-signed Gandy at guard. Since Gandy played for Jauron in Chicago, I think, the more I think about it, the more I think Jauron will try and sign him. That would leave Preston as the 7th lineman on gameday, and putting Merz back on the inactive list for another season of potential development. Yeah, I could very easily see that happening.... JDG

Doh! That's what I get for doing TBD in the morning before coffee.... that would have registered eventually.... thanks for the pickup....

Well, I used a number of principles in developing this plan. 1) The first decision was to one to resign Clements. Based on Clements having been franchised last year, Clements having inexplicably received a promise to not be franchised this year, and based on Clements' play this year - I project Clements as receiving a contract equal or greater than the highest-paid CB in the League. That's a tough decision to make, but I think that the Bills are better off for it, rather than going with an inconsistent McGee, a completely untested Yobouty, and some other young guy at CB. 2) The next decision is to resign Kelsay. Kelsay won't demand top-of-the-line money, but he might still be paid like a starter. Kelsay's not great, but I think that he's better than the alternatives. 3) Once you sign Clements and Kelsay, there are limited financial resources available for free agency. Remember, its not just about the salary cap, but the liquidity to give a huge signing bonus to Clements, and a typical signing bonus to Kelsay. In my mind, that leaves room for one more outside free agent that would be receiving a signing bonus - which in this case, I project to the offensive line. This is especially true once you consider that given the salary cap surplus out there this year, this is looking to be one of the weakest free agent classes ever. I expect the Bills to sign a couple other bargain-basement free agents, and one of them probably makes the 45-man active roster (heck, I can't imagine that I got all 45 spots right back in January - that's hard enough to do in training camp), but that would be about it. In short, based on available talent in free agency, and Buffalo's limited financial resources, its hard to see us bringing in a large number of impact free agents. We may want to get better at more positions - but I'm trying to be realistic about what we can really accomplish. 4) This was year 1 of a new system, and we already had a very young defense with Whitner, Simpson, Williams, and Ellision, plus with McCargo and Yobouty waiting in the wings. I think that they might decide to try and get better through continuity, experience in the system, and natural player development. After all, Levy and Jauron showed a great deal of patience with a certain 3rd-year player this past season, (but let's not go there so I would expect them to similarly show patience with many of the first-year players who they hand selected. In the case of the DT position, they just brought in Triplett as a free agent, used a 1st round pick on McCargo, and almost certainly still see Kevin Williams as one of the three DT's you bring on game day. Given the needs at other positions, I simply don't see the Bills bringing in a defensive tackle to instantly replace one of these three starters. Far more likely would be a low-end free agent, 2nd day pick, or UDFA who could compete with Jason Jefferson for a spot on the inactive list to fill in if one the three guys got hurt. As for the LB position, I think they could assign much of the "assignment calling" duties to Whitner, to relieve that pressure on a rookie - if indeed it does pan out that way.... 5) On the offensive line, I think there is consensus that Peters is a lock. So, the plan is really contingent upon whether or not you are happy with Fowler at Center, and whether you think that Pennington will solidify as a starter for next year, or whether he should be moved to the 3rd Tackle spot at best. Oh yes, and then there is keeping Preston as a starter. I'll admit that people could disagree here - and I think the most likely scenario would be using a first day pick on a Guard instead of a TE or FB, and making Preston the 3rd Guard again with Merz back on the inactive list (if even on the roster.) JDG

For what it is worth, here is my current thinking on how the Bills should tackle their offseason. I've based this plan on thinking about the 46 players who are on the typical active roster for gamedays (counting the special 3rd QB rule). I know its a little unusual to think about a roster in terms of the active players, rather than the full 53, but I think that its a more useful approach. I'll first list this year's 45 for each position, and then give my recommendations. QB (3) - Losman, Holcomb, Nall Recommendation: Losman is clearly the starter. Unless Levy and Jauron think that Nall is a total bust, now that Nall has had one year in our system, they can hopefully elevate him to #2, bid farewell to Holcomb, and draft a #3 on the second day of the draft. RB (2) - McGahee, Thomas Recommendation: I only give McGahee an extension if the price is right, he just hasn't shown enough as a complete back (pass catching and pass blocking). Even as a runner, he's disappear for far too long stretches for my taste. With that much talent, it wouldn't hurt to get an extension for the right price, but you can't break the bank for that kind of production either. Thomas is unrestricted, but the Bills should have no trouble resigning him. The Bills also may need to seriously consider reducing a player at another position in order to add a 3rd RB who plays special teams to the gameday roster for next season. If so, that could be a 2nd day pick, or perhaps even a 3rd rounder if the player was right. FB (1) - Shelton Recommendation: Daimon Shelton is 35 years old and a free agent; the Bills could tender him an offer to bring him back to camp, but this will be a priority for replacement. Ideally, I'd like to see the Bills use their 3rd round pick on a FB who would hopefully beat Shelton out in camp this year. Otherwise, the new guy may spend most of next year on the inactive list while Shelton plays one last year, or a different veteran is brought in to hold the fort. WR (6) - Evans, Price, Reed, Parrish, Davis, Aiken Recommendation: Davis is a free agent, who will certainly be resigned and at least brought into training camp. I was very impressed with him on special teams this year, and would like to see him back on the gameday rosters next year. If so, that would mean another year with 6 WR's on our gameday rosters - which I suspect that both Bobby April and our Mike Martz alumni offensive coordinator would both be more than happy with. The places to make a cut would be to drop either Reed or Price, but both received signing bonuses last year, and Price seems entrenched as a starter, and Reed seems to be finally emerging as the "3rd Down guy." That leaves three special teamers, Parrish as the returner and occasional "secret weapon" on offense, and Davis and Aiken as the gunners. I'd tag Aiken to possibly be a late cut and replaced by a 3rd RB or a backup FB (particularly if we project a first-day drafted rookie as our eventual starter, but just not on opening day.) On the other hand, I thought the same thing about Aiken this year, and he made the active roster anyways. TE (3) - Royal, Cieslak, Everett Recommendation: Royal is a coaches favorite, and I like Cieslak a lot, especially since he can be a backup FB. I suspect that Everett will be cut in training camp next season. Ideally, I would hope that the Bills use a 1st Day pick on a TE who will beat him out for the spot. Its conceivable that Neufeld could come back and take the spot too. We could bring in Eric Johnson from the 49ers or Reggie Kelly of the Bengals. Johnson graduated from Yale, so you've got to think that he might get a look from this staff.... OT (3) - Peters, Pennington, Butler Recommendation: This young trio appears to be set. Butler should see some competition, from a mid-round draft pick or a lower-tier free agent, with Butler being demoted to the inactive list for one more year of development in that situation if he should lose out. OG/C (4) - Gandy, Fowler, Vilarrial, Preston Recommendation: Gandy is a free agent, whom I don't expect to resign. Or if we do, to be cut in camp. Vilarrial could retire with injuries, and Reyes, who began the year on the above list, I would expect to be cut. Preston is a restricted free agent who should be brought back. I'd then look to sign free agent at the interior of the line. One place I'd start would be David Diehl of the Giants, whom I believe is a free agent. McNally drafted him in his last year in New York, and while he's not great, he would probably be an instant starter for us. Next year's four at this position would then likely be: Diehl, Fowler, Preston, Merz - although Merz should face competition for an active roster spot. DE (4) - Schobel, Kelsay, Denney, Hargrove Recommendation: Kelsay is a free agent, and I'd put signing him only behind Clements. If there is a pass rusher available in the first round, I'd probably take him though, which would complicate this scenario - but otherwise I'd plan on resigning Kelsay and standing pat. DT (3) - Triplett, Williams, Anderson I expect Anderson to be cut and replaced by McCargo in the rotation. Jason Jefferson might come back on the inactive list, or a late-round draft pick could take his spot. LB (7) - Crowell, Fletcher, Spikes, Ellison, Haggan, DiGiorgio, Stamer Fletcher is a free agent, and its open secret that he won't be resigned. Its time to get younger and bigger in the middle, and with the need to resign Clements (or else sign his replacement), as well as Kelsay, there simply isn't money to go around. Spikes was a shadow of his former self this season, but I bring him back for another year to try and fully recover from his injuries and retgain his former glory. Coy Wire is a free agent, but I think we should be able to bring him back cheaply, and I expect will take either Haggan's or Stamer's roster spot as a special teams linebacker. DiGiorgio seems to have earned an active roster spot as a special teamer as well, and Ellison will remain the top backup. With our first round pick, I would draft Paul Posluszny of Penn State. With Fletcher moving on, we'll have a glaring need for a middle linebacker, and Posluszny would seem to be the sort of high character, big time player who could fit right in. CB (4) - Clements, McGee, Thomas, Greer This is where Marv will earn his bucks the big season. I advocate making Clements the highest paid CB in football after the season that he just had - he's that valuable to us. If we let Clements walk, then we need to sign Asante Samuel - otherwise we'll be in trouble and things will start falling apart. Kiwaukee Thomas is unrestricted and Greer is restricted. Greer will be tendered, and Thomas could probably be brought back for camp. Ideally, Yobouty will claim the nickel CB slot this year in camp, and then a second day pick or UDFA could beat out Greer for the gameday roster spot. S (3) - Whitner, Simpson, Leonhard Whitner and Simpson ain't going anywhere next year. I'd love to see Leonhard continue to defy the odds and keep earning his active roster spot with special teams play and an awful lot of heart. Specialists (3) - Moorman, Lindell, Schenk With Lindell resigned, there's no worries here. Summary: Free Agency - Resign Clements, Kelsay, Thomas, and Davis. Bring in an interior offensive lineman, ala David Diehl. Look for lower-tier help at FB, TE, and backup offensive line. Draft - First Day - LB, TE, FB Second Day - RB, CB, OL, CB

And indeed, since the loser goes home in this one, there is a bit of a playoff atmosphere about this week too....

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto.../TPStory/Sports JDG

The Blue Jays aren't exactly a financial basketcase.... More importantly, once you add together all the people in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Rochester - and heck even after you toss in Syracuse and Binghamton ---- the Greater Toronto Area still has on the order of TWICE as many people. Additionally, Toronto is an international financial center - compared to Buffalo, which doesn't even have a single Fortune 500 company. More importantly, Toronto is growing and Buffalo is going backwards. Plain and simple, when the time comes for a new stadium, there's very little argument to be made for building that stadium in the Buffalo area. More importantly, the NFL Front Office has clearly recognize that Toronto is a huge market, a growing market, and relatively prosperous and wealthy market. The NFL is going to want to be in that market at some point. From, there you just have to put two and two together. JDG

The playoffs have a shorter time to sell out..... whereas many teams sell out the regular season before the first game is even played.... JDG

Yeah, there is that. To me, if I'm the NFL League Office, I want the Raiders to end up in Los Angeles within 10 years, and I want the Bills in a larger market with much stronger growth potential - to me, Toronto is the most likely of those markets, especially since it has the potential to mute the national outrage over the Bills leaving Buffalo... JDG

Remember this day in history, the day the Bills-Dolphins game was blacked out for the first time since 1987, because 10 years from now we may look back on it as the day that Buffalo lost the Bills. We all know the story - the Bills are a small market, with one of the cheapest tickets in the League, and among the fewest and cheapest luxury boxes in the League. By having a larger-than-average stadium the Bills are able to close some of the revenue gap with the big-market teams, but as teams like Washington and Dallas start to really dig into their respective markets that gap is looming larger and larger. It doesn't help the Bills that the entire Western New York area remains geared in full reverse. According to the US Census, the Buffalo-Niagara Falls area lost 1.6% of its population from 1990 to 2000, even as the United States as a whole was growing by more than 13%. We're small, and getting smaller. Meanwhile, the big are getting even bigger - at rapidly accelerating rates to boot. I can't prove it, but I suspect that we've drawn more than our fair share of December home dates with Miami over the last several years in large part because December home games tend to be a tough sell in Buffalo, and because Miami has always been a guaranteed sell-out. The NFL certainly does have some inclination to want a historic franchise like the Bills to succeed in Buffalo, and again, I can't prove it, but I suspect that they give us this small accomodation to perhaps help us out. Yet this year, the Bills have a decent team, the Bills and Fish have identical records and are not yet completely out of the playoffs, and the weather is expected to be fairly mild. And yet, the game was not sold out, even after an extension. That would mark the third blackout in a row for the Bills, and so far as I know, these would mark the *only* three blackouts in the NFL this year. That will surely be noticed. And while we may complain that we have a larger stadium than many NFL markets, we also have cheaper tickets than almost every NFL market - which means less revenue. I don't blame the good people of Western New York for this. Its been clear for years that Buffalo is a marginal NFL market, and is trying to support two major league sports teams. Moreover, as time goes by, Buffalo is getting objectively smaller by some measures - and comparatively smaller to the rest of the country by any measure. The region as a whole is slowly losing its competitiveness as a sizeable market for major professional sports. This is a classic frog-in-boiling-water problem.... there's been no single moment or political decision that has caused the precipitous decline of our beloved city. Indeed, that's partly why I'm citing as the signature event of this decline a TV blackout of a foorball game - an otherwise innocuous event. Nevertheless, over the past 50 years, enough mistakes and errors have accumulated to leave things in their present sorry state. The talk this week surrounding Dallas' new $1 billion multiplex, has generated speculation that the Bills might need a new stadium. Even if the stadium were built on the Rochester-side of the city, where would the people come from to fill the seats? And where would the corporations to fund the luxury boxes come from? More to the point, if $500-$900 million is going to be invested in a new stadium, what sensible reason is there for not investing that money in the enormous Toronto market? If the Bills were moved from the slowly withering environment of Buffalo just across Lake Ontario to the dynamic international financial center of Toronto the public outcry (outside of Upstate New York) would probably be muted, and in the long run, the franchise could probably expert to earn far more money - there simply would be many times more people available to fill the seats of a new stadium, and far more corporations to invest in those revenue-enhancing luxury boxes. Forget Los Angeles... someday the Raiders or the Jaguars or maybe even the Chargers will move into that market per the NFL's wishes.... and perhaps someday we'll all be able to go to "Buffalo Day" at the Toronto Bills' new stadium. JDG

I was actually in Cleveland during that game.... and the atmosphere was actually pretty good as "the announcement" wouldn't come for a couple more weeks yet. Interestingly enough, the announcement was made the same day that Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated. The next day, the headline of the Cleveland Plain Dealer was "Modell Moving Browns to Baltimore" - the Rabin assassination was below the fold. I sometimes joke to my Cleveland friends, when they wonder why their team has had so much bad luck in its resurrection that they are suffering from "the curse of Yitzhak Rabin" and that the Browns will never win a Super Bowl until there is peace between Israel and Palestine.... ;-) JDG

A nice theory... but it only works if you honestly believe that this was the first week that Dick Jauron was asked that question. I personally don't believe that for a second.... JDG

Further proof that you can please some of the people some of the time, but not all the people all of the time.....

I disagree with making decisions about next year when you still have yet to play your biggest game *this year*. JDG

The quality of Losman's play....

Except for the fact that its not true. JP Losman really was very, very, bad. For the last few weeks, he's manage to play quite a bit better. JDG

But why is he answering questions about next season?