Orton's Arm

Read the thread before you reply.

My comments about the three way division in the locker room during the Flutie/Johnson days were based on articles I'd read on the subject. Those are pretty old articles, and I failed to find them in Google. One article in particular I remember reading talked about how some of the players were determined to remain neutral in the Flutie/Johnson controversy. But adding the word "neutral" to my Google search caused me to get very few results, and no useful results. (The search included the terms Flutie, "Rob Johnson," "locker room," neutral, and divided.) My second point was that nobody on the team had publicly stated JP should be the starter. If I've missed a player comment somewhere, I'd welcome a link.

Thanks for this precious gem of insight. Or at least, thanks for trying. But Finknottle brings up a valuable point. When Rob Johnson was here, 1/3 of the locker room wanted him to start, 1/3 wanted Flutie, and 1/3 was neutral. This time around, nobody in the locker room is voicing support for Losman, and quite a few are voicing support for Holcomb. So either Losman isn't as good as Rob Johnson, or Holcomb is better than Flutie.

The 25% chance you quote is a good starting point. I'd tend to adjust that number upwards for quarterbacks selected for their pocket passing, and downwards for those selected for their athletic gifts. I remember when Manning and Leaf were being drafted, that Manning was described as more "polished" while Leaf presumably had more upside because of his stronger arm. Since Losman was selected more for his athleticism than anything, the 15% figure I mentioned earlier is probably on the generous side.

I wouldn't exactly call Losman a rookie. He had two years of training camps, mini camps, etc. He had his whole first year to watch film and learn the playbook. Sometimes that extra time spent learning can help a guy quickly perform on the field, as it did for Chad Pennington.

Thanks for the information. Yeah, I'd agree Marshall was probably better than Thurman. I've seen statistics to show the Rams' offense overall was better than the Bills' offense of the early '90s.

No, because in Cutler's case, there'd be a solid college track record of pocket passing. In any event, my plan would be to sit Cutler his rookie year, giving Losman a chance to prove something one way or the other. He may only have a 15% chance, but I'd like to find out for sure if he can be good.

Let's say we're both right, and Losman's chance of being a real QB is 15%, and Holcomb's is 2-3%. That works out to a little less than a 17%-18% chance of having the right QB on the roster. Which means the Bills should draft Cutler if he's available, and if he's the real deal. Which is what I've been saying for some time now.

So every quarterback who's been benched after nine games will become the next Favre? I don't think so. There's a chance Losman will become a real QB like Favre. I'd say that chance hovers around 15% or less.

Being a "journeyman backup" may not be good enough for a HOF induction. But it was enough to send Losman to the bench. Twice!

I never said he was my idol. I think he has more potential than most people may realize. But I also think the Bills can do better, which is why I'm suggesting they take a long, hard look at Cutler. In fact, I've mentioned Cutler earlier in this thread, which you'd know if you'd read it.

I have heard some players say Favre looks good in those very short shorts. On a more serious note, Losman's done nothing--either in college or the pros--to earn a Favre comparison. Ryan Leaf had a strong arm too.

That so-called top five defense faced a lot of lousy offenses. It's one thing to hold Cleveland to 30 yards, or whatever it was they were held to. Great. That was probably the most effective job anyone did in 2004 at stopping Cleveland's offense. Wonderful! But when that defense faced real offenses, it came up short. Examples: New England New England again! Giving up a game-winning drive to the Jets late in that first game Giving up a game-deciding nine minute drive to Pittsburgh in a must-win game Giving up a game-winning drive to the Jaguars The defense let the team down in those five games, but did well in most of the rest. Those other games generally featured teams with impotent offenses, like Cleveland's and Baltimore's, and both Miami games.

Maybe it will inspire the Jills to make some breast moves too.

It's true an OL upgrade is absolutely essential. I feel we should use three of our four first day picks doing it. But the first round pick should be used on Cutler if he's available, and if he's the real deal. I doubt Da Brick will fall to us, and no other OL is worthy of going 8th overall.

Wrong. I favorably compared the low priced Holcomb deal to the high priced Drew deal. Had we not traded for Drew, maybe we could have used that first round pick on a player who would still be with us today. Any curiousity as to how New England used the first round pick they got in exchange for Drew, or what that player might have to offer them this coming season? Had we not done the Drew deal, maybe Ty Warren would be on our team instead of theirs.

15% may be a little generous. As has been pointed out earlier in this thread, Losman has done nothing--either in college or the pros--to show he can become a good pocket passer. He's good at making plays on the run, and he's at his best when plays break down. He's got a strong arm. But can he sit in the pocket and pick defenses apart? You take a guy with little to no track record of doing that, and I'd say his chance of learning is about 15% or less. Most guys can't, which is why the odds are against him. Now, you take a guy who established himself as a good pocket passer while in college, and his odds of doing that in the pros are a lot higher. Take Joe Montana. Even in high school, you could see he was exceptionally accurate, and that he could hit receivers in stride. If a college QB looks like Montana at Notre Dame, then I'd say that college QB would have a very good chance of becoming a successful pro.

Realistically speaking, JP may have a 15% chance of ever becoming the real deal. The Bills should hope for the best outcome, while preparing for the one that's more likely.

TD's decision to trade away a first round pick for a QB rated at 76 wasn't a stroke of brilliance. Holcomb's passer rating isn't significantly higher than Bledsoe's, but TD didn't give up any draft picks, or very much salary cap space, to get Holcomb. So yeah, the Holcomb signing was a lot better than the Bledsoe trade.

You seem to think you can make Losman into a better QB by criticizing Holcomb. In any case, Holcomb's career passer rating of 79.9 is pretty decent for a starter.

Fair enough. What, in your opinion, did St. Louis do differently to get him that higher average per carry? A better OL? More draw plays? Better choices of running plays? Fewer running plays; thereby encouraging the defense to focus on the pass first? I know any of these things could have led to that higher average, but I haven't watched many Rams games.

If the Bills couldn't beat Pittsburgh's backups and third stringers in a must-win game, they didn't deserve to be in the playoffs. Nor would they have won any playoff games. Pittsburgh did us a favor by exposing the weakness of TD's talent selection, Jerry Gray's defense, and Drew Bledsoe's quarterbacking. Now we're rid of all three!

If you think he has a 50/50 shot of being the real deal, you're a more optimistic man than me.

Now I'm beginning to suspect that you're inflating your own post count, Mr. 3700+ posts!

If I were Bates, I'd have serious reservations about taking the Bills' job. - Up until this past year, the defense was ranked very highly. So expectations might be pretty high. - A lot of the defensive players are aging in a hurry. - Many of those defensive guys might not be a good fit for whatever system Bates has. The Bills have too many needs on offense to commit a whole lot to defense in the draft. - As a result, the Bills' defense would probably not rank very highly in its first year or two under Bates. This would reduce his chance of getting a head coaching position.