Casey D
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Posts posted by Casey D
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37 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:
A lot of the "experts" are picking the Pats in this one due to the unknown of how the Bills will respond to the moment so there is that too. I'm just trying to explain a point spread that I agree is a bit low.
It's up to 7.5. But I get your drift, and that may be the way some bettors are thinking.
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3 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:
Pats are playing for their season and we're playing for seeding. I would have to think that factors into the spread. If the Chiefs win, I would expect that spread to drop to -5 as there are no guarantees that the Bills will play the starters for the entire game if the #1 is not in play.
Disagree. #2 seed is huge over #3 seed, especially with the neutral field tweak. Guarantees no "road games."
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Hopefully he plays against Pats.
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9 hours ago, Caesar said:
Actually not. The Ravens needed us to lose to you guys AND them in week in 18. Now all they need to do is beat us this Sunday and a coin flip could give them home field. It is a joke.
If Bengals can't beat a Jackson-less Ravens team, your assumption that they would have beat Buffalo is a joke.
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1 minute ago, JayBaller10 said:
Yeah I’m talking about the Bengals couldn’t complain about the Bills being a one seed if they were to lose to the Ravens. That would’ve eliminated them as a 1.
Right. Nothing is perfect here, but the good should not be the enemy of the perfect. This proposal is about as good as you can do. Cincy likely gets the worst of ti as they will beat the Ravens. KC benefits, and for the Bills it is about a wash.
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2 minutes ago, TBBills Fan said:
Oh okay. Now let me ask:
This week Bills win, KC loses, Cincy wins
Then if we play Cincy it's in the AFCGG. This game would be played where?
Buffalo
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2 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:
That’s the only scenario where the Bills would be an uncontested 1 seed, even if the Bengals had beaten them, but it also has like a 1% chance of happening 😅
Ravens game is irrelevant. Bills win KC loses Bills #1 seed and have all the usual benefits of a #1 seed. Bye and all games at home
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7 minutes ago, Kiva said:
Where does the release explain seeding on win % and bye ?
Seeding is based on who has the best record. If KC is 14-3, they have the best record. It's self-evident, no need to announce anything
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3 minutes ago, Kiva said:
So are we sharing one seed and no one gets a bye? I don’t see that verbiage on the release.
No. Seeding based on win %. If KC wins on Saturday, they will be #1 seed. Not shared.
If Buffalo also wins this week, and meet KC in championship game, game not in KC but neutral field.
There are more wrinkles as to other teams, but If Buffalo ends up 1/2 game behind KC and both reach championship, game at neutral field.
1 minute ago, Georgia Bill said:I hadn't thought that part through properly - thanks.
So basically only KC or the Bills can be one seed, and get the bye. KC get it with a win this weekend, and only way we can get it is if KC loses and we win.
That does have to be painful for the Bengals - they might well have beaten us and if they had and KC lost, they'd be one seed, now they have no chance.
Admittedly, our chances at the one seed went from fair to slim, and the Bengals chances went from slim to none.
Conversely, our chances of being the #2 seed as opposed the #3 seed went up as we did not have to beat Cincy.
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12 minutes ago, Georgia Bill said:
Correction to last part. If KC loses and Bills lose, and Bengals win, Bengals get the bye.
I don't think that is right. If Bengals win they will be 12-4. If KC loses, they will be 13-4. Better record KC gets #1 seed. Cincy cannot be #1 seed.
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2 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:
The more the NFL does the worse it gets.
Go with winning percentage and let the chips fall where they may.
None of these crazy solutions are good ideas
Well since they all will likely help the Bills, I am in favor of the crazy solutions. If all three teams win, AFC championship game on neutral field of splitting the benefits of #1 seed sounds good.
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3 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said:
It almost certainly won't, but depending on the math it could be possible because it's not just about the Patriots and Ravens, it's about all of the teams that we each played this year. So in theory (depending on the margin, and I'm not going to do the math) if every non-common opponent we played wins this weekend, and every non-common opponent of the Bengals loses, then our strength of victory could surpass theirs.
Plainly the late season collapse of Miami and NYJ did not help. And other teams that seemed good when we beat them, like LAR, tanked. Thanks for clearing this up. For other reasons as well, just beat the Pats.
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6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:
It could change, but most likely it favors Cincinnati getting stronger by Beating the Ravens for a better SOV.
Probably. It would diminish the Ravens record though. Would not all the teams each team beat factor into the equation?
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7 minutes ago, Captain Caveman said:
Not from everything I've read. Right now
Very easy to see here that Bills would be 3 and Cinci would be 2 in that case.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine
Since the entire premise of this thread is incorrect can we shut it down?I am wrong, thank you. It would come to SOV. That will change depending on outcome of lots of games. Right now it goes to Cincy, but it could change.
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24 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:
Which tiebreaker would it be?
Record would be the same, division record would be the same, conference record would be the same, no head to head to determine and, on strength of schedule, it's currently 0.496 for the Bills and 0.508 for the Bengals, but the Bengals are facing the sixth seed Ravens, who cannot fall any lower, and the Bills are facing the seventh seed Patriots, who cannot make up any places.
I believe it is record against common opponents. We would have one more win and the same # of losses. But I could be wrong.
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1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:
If Bills lose and Cinci wins then Bills would be 3 seed
No. Both would be 12-4, but Bills would have tiebreaker.
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2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:
No he's right, if the Chiefs and Bengals both lose this week and the Bills win then the Bills lock the 1 seed, they'd have the better record than the Bengals even if they lose to them and they'd tie the Chiefs and have the head to head with them, for whatever this matters right now.
Correct. If all the assumptions you make are true, then Bills #1 Chiefs #2 and Bengals #3 then. Problem then is Ravens alive for AFC North and would get it if Bills played and beat Bengals. No matter how you slice it, there will be some unfairness. But last year Bengals were #4 seed and Rams #5 seed. Year before Bucs #5 seed. Although we make being the #1 seed the be all and end all, I would suggest the #1 seed guarantees nothing. it is a great talking point for fans and talking heads however. I do not think after last year the Bengals are too concerned with going on road.
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10 minutes ago, Lothar said:
If Bills win, Bengals lose and Raiders beat Chiefs, Bills could just forfeit the game. We'd be top seed, Bengals 2 and Chiefs 3. Ravens might be upset about losing division but I don't think anyone else would be too angry.
Otherwise I think you have to play the game.
No, I don't think so. The problem is that the loser of the Bills Bengals game will be placed at a disadvantage as the 2 or 3 seed. The lower seeded teams all get a week off, which is a huge advantage and not earned. Teams with such good records at the Bills and Bengals should not be so disadvantaged. Better to skip the game and end up with a slightly lower seed. Bengals would only have shot at #1 seed if KC loses in any event.
Windfall for KC if they beat Raiders and get #1 seed. Maybe depending how other week 18 games shake out. But I think Bills would take #2 seed than have to go back to Cincinnati. Just my opinion.
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1 hour ago, Kiva said:
That’s fair, As long as we keep 1 seed.
That won't happen unless we win and KC loses.
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Just now, Kiva said:
Two solutions:
1. give both teams the win
2. Resume the game.
Neither will happen. No time to play the game, the NFL is not going to change the playoff schedule over a seeding issue. They will not give both teams a win, that makes zero sense. It will simply be a no contest, and seeding will be done with Bills and Bengals having played a 16 game schedule.
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11 minutes ago, DJB said:
Of course. I’ve watched NFL for 30 years.
But my point stands that if we analyze the 10 plays or whatever we had on D we were getting shredded. No way to argue differently
No one would. Bengals looked great on a handful of plays, that's pretty obvious, so no insight there .
Lots of games look that way for a while, things change. Colts were shredding Vikings two weeks ago in the first half. How did that turn out? Your desire to reach an overarching conclusion about the two teams over such a small sample size is silly. There could have been a pick 6 on the next play and the Bills are up 10-7. We'll never know.
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1 minute ago, DJB said:
True but what we did see was that our D looked bad against their offenceDid you watch both halfs of the Bengals Pats? Things change. That's why they play 60 minutes, not 10.
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3 minutes ago, Roy Hobbs said:
You make a good point - unfortunately, there is no easy answer. Calling it a no-contest or a tie pretty much gives the #1 seed to the Chiefs.
but they would have the best record. The only team possibly losing out are the Bills, assuming they beat the Bengals, which is not a given. Bengals would not have been #1 seed in any event if KC wins Saturday.
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I don't think any of these elaborate schemes will happen. Nothing is entirely fair or perfect. So I believe they will simply call the game a no contest, play the week 18 games. and the seeding will be what it is based on record with Bengals and bills with a 16 game schedule.
If all three hold serve, KC #1 seed, Bills #2 and Bengals #3. Could change if some win and some lose. Not perfect, but as good as anything else suggested and it has simplicity, which is a huge plus.
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Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders 1/7/23 4:30pm
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
These announcers make we want to puke