Dr. Who
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Posts posted by Dr. Who
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I think McDermott sold him on the idea this team could make the playoffs. Once Pegula discovers that isn't possible I think his love for Sean could turn ugly quickly.
It would be ironic if McD is the quiet, hardworking grinder version of Rex Ryan's penchant to promise too much.
And if McD is right, it is probably JaCrispy's scenario that equals short-term, low ceiling prize at the cost of long-term, sustained chances at a super bowl.
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I think you are right on. And when it appears the Bills won't get one of the top QB's people will point out that 2019 might be a better year.
This whole thread assumes the defensive coach has an interest in drafting and developing a QB, a pretty big leap of faith.
I'm on the I won't believe it till I see it camp now.
Yep. This is the year to tank. Maybe Pegs is gunshy because of the Sabres tank which should still end up working if they play their cards right.
Fortunately, we may be bad in any event, though I can see 7- 9 because Bills . . . alas, we are just not that bright.
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this is why i don't understand the organization's current philosophy of trying to win now, while getting your franchise QB next year...just seems like a contradiction to me- especially since McD has acknowledged that QB is the most important part of the team...if you know it is so important, you are hurting your chances by trying to win as many games as you can this year- because it's not going to mean anything if you make the playoffs this year, but don't for the next 10 because you could't get your QB imo...
I would rather forget about this year and put all our chips into getting one of the top 2 QBs next year, which will allow us to win for the next 15 years.
I concur. Jets are doing it right and they got Adams this year, one of the best picks in the draft.
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My guess is after a year of scrutiny, probably two will shake out as above the rest. It's a question whether we will be in a position to get one of them. The extra first isn't all that helpful, as I indicated above, if it is in the twenties. Also, if the two worst teams need a franchise qb, unlikely they are going to trade out.
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I think when all is said and done, Allen and Falk will go top 5 because they are the safest of the QBs...Rosen and Mayfield will go in the top 15 because they have some character question marks...and i think Mason Rudolph will go by the end of the 1st.
You left out Darnold.
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This is well written and I agree with every word of it.
I think you have to look at how the team is constructed. Offensively, this is the best this set of Bills are going to be, if not past their primes a tad. Incognito is in his mid-30's, Glenn is 27, McCoy will turn 29 this summer, Watkins is in the last year of his contract, Wood is in his 30's, Clay is 28. We lost Woods and Gilislee (both squarely in their prime).
Defensively, for me it's a depth study. No emerging DTs behind Dareus and Williams (34 now), thin at DE with just Hughes (29 years), a couple of linebackers, unproven at corner and no depth at Safety. IMO the defensive scheme changes, and lack of investment in DE/DT and LB have caught up to the Bills. There aren't many up and coming young players on this side of the ball.
So you put it together and I don't see where the Bills have gotten any better in terms of talent. I guess we are hoping Tyrod gets better, Sammy stays healthy and Bills target him, and McDermott gets the Bills back to a better defensive scheme. With the schedule, it feels like a 6 win team.
We need some of the injured 2016 draft to show up and for McD to find a way to use them. I suspect your assessment is correct, however. This is not a bad year to be bad given the 2018 qb class. Mediocre never gets you anywhere, however, which is our brand of treadmill.
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If he has a good year he will be a top five lock. Seriously looks like Big Ben, I believe he has a shot at greatness. Hopefully we don't screw a trade up to secure a franchise QB this year.
I really hope KC gives us a top ten pick this year. I think they had the worst offseason in their division this year so its possible.
I expect us to somehow manage to be mediocre, so I am hoping KC flops. If we are picking 10 to 15 and the KC pick is in the twenties, that probably doesn't get you close to a franchise qb unless the 2018 class really is four to six deep.
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The premise of the thread is fine, I suppose, if one defines one's terms correctly. An irrational downer is someone who instinctively faults everything OBD does and perhaps uses "17 years" as justification. There are irrational optimists who the former often call "homers." Over the years, I have often been branded a homer, so I find it ironic that recently I have caught flack for being a "downer" because I question the direction of the current team. Imo, it is somewhat unsettling to see how much power McD appears to have accrued before he has ever coached a down as head coach of an NFL team. I generally liked Doug Whaley, though his performance was mixed and it's fine if the Pegulas decided to go another direction. The way they have chosen to do so, however, apparently investing an unproven first-time head coach with inordinate power, causes me to suspect McD is just the latest infatuation, rather than part of a well-thought out logical command structure. I could be wrong on this and I hope it works out.
Further, imo, the difference in the NFL from when I was a kid and today is the hyper-inflated importance of the qb. The rb used to be of equal or more importance. Until we get a franchise qb, we will always be hoping to catch a ton of breaks just to top out at a wild card team or so. I certainly don't see Super bowl wins without one and I have always thought that was the point of the game, not just to make the playoffs. I don't think Cardale Jones and a fifth-round rag-arm qb are likely to turn into a franchise qb. Hooray if they do. Taylor is a bridge, but only if you end up with a franchise qb destination. If Taylor makes a huge leap, fantastic -- I will be very surprised. So, if emphasizing the need for urgency and intelligence in securing a franchise qb, hopefully in 2018, makes one a downer in some folk's books, have at it. My main "tactical" worry is that we will continue to be a mediocre team, too good to get a prime draft pick and too bad to be more than a team whose mathematical possibility for the playoffs dwindles to zero some time in December.
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What matters is not the class but the QB YOU can acquire. Should Raiders have passed on Derek Carr because it was a bad class? How does Mariotta or Winston help them the next year if they don't have a top 2 pick?
You know I agree with you, Jeff. I'm tired of arguing with folks on the other side of the argument. We will all see soon enough. (I allow for the minute possibility that Taylor, Peterman, or Cardale somehow blossom into a true franchise qb.) I suspect most will be on board with a qb in 2018 by the time the draft rolls around. It remains to be seen if we will be in a position to get one.
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Whatever the reason its pretty clear that the Bills have lacked a consistent vision for what they want to be and a recognizable identity year over year. The good, winning teams all have that and the best ones have it most. So I have no problem with the notion of fastening onto a consistent model, having a vision for the kind of team you want to be and adhering to it.
It also obviously makes perfect sense therefore for the head coach and the front office to be on the same page (along with everyone else for that matter) but I wouldn't want a GM who was subordinate to the HC and who basically had nothing to add. You want a strong personality in that role and at the end of the day there is a division of functions/responsibilities that needs to be respected. I don't know anything about Beane but I'm not sold on the idea of having the GM owe his job to the HC. He should owe it to the owner who actually hired him. And I also have a concern about the Pegulas falling too hard too fast. Can only hope that they struck gold this time because they were definitely "buffaloed" by Rex the last time.
Solid post. I have the same concerns. Pegulas are great folks, but they seem to need a football czar/hockey president to help prevent "infatuation errors."
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I used to be the biggest homer on this board and try to defend everything the Bills did. But honestly, what other NFL franchise would give this much power to a 1st time head coach?
Yeah, just using yards in a vacuum is a silly way to judge success. Kyle Orton was known as a qb that could move the ball between the 20s but struggles to get it in the endzone. If you can't score tds, who cares how many yards you had?
Additionally, stats like 3rd down % and red zone % are very important as well.
Agree with all these points. I hope McD is successful, but on what basis has he acquired all this power? He has yet to coach a single down as a head coach.
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I think it was a fair criticism of Whaley that started to be made on this board about a year ago. I remember a thread where both Kirby and I who were generally pro-Whaley guys said "I think there might be something to it." Whaley didn't suck, he was a good evaluator who generally improved the talent level on the Bills. What he never quite mastered as GM was that holistic team building approach through disagreement with his coaches and changes to the ideal profiles that Marrone, then Rex then McD and the various coordinators that came and went with them had for certain positions.
I think I'd score Whaley a 6.5/10 as the Bills GM. He did a reasonable job, very good in some areas, lacking in others. The record for the three seasons after offseasons where he was in total personnel control was bang on .500 (9-7, 8-8, 7-9). He didn't find us a franchise quarterback and his team building lacked a clear enough vision.
I think that is a fair analysis, but the idea that he was just terrible that some folks have is about as sound as the view that TT is a franchise qb. As it happens, these are often the same folks.
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Happy birthday, JW. At least there is one competent sport's journalist in Buffalo.
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If they think Cardale has any future at all, Yates will be cut.
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I definitely saw folks in the shoutbox saying Leroi said we were trying to trade up for Jones on Friday afternoon. I missed Leroi's actual post or shoutbox message.
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if I am Pegs I pay him a ton and put him behind the scenes. Lend him support with the alcoholism/rehab, if open to it.
This is smart.
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These teams know the failure rate of picking a QB high. What fans (still) underestimate is the value of a QB. You aren't winning a Superbowl without one in this era. No stat better illustrates that than this one -- 13 of the last 14 QBs representing the AFC in the big game were named Manning, Brady, or Roethlisberger. Coaches and GM's know their jobs are on the line without one. Owners know that the $160M+ player payroll they are funding isn't ultimately going anywhere. Your ceiling becomes "playoff pretender," and you have to sell that to the fans every year. The "anything can happen in the playoffs" mantra is nothing more than "all you need is a dollar and a dream" nonsense, and I think most fans realize that.
If there's a guy there in the top 10 that has a ~25% chance of becoming your guy under center for the next decade, you pull the trigger.
I'd like a bit more than 1 out of 4 probability, but I agree with your basic point.
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Agree. No one knows for sure what will happen. One thing I would ask is where Reid got the reputation as some QB guru. He was handed Favre when he coached in GB and other than McNabb (who I'd argue was good but not great) who are the other QBs he's mentored?
I don't take Reid's assessment as infallible or even especially acute. Mainly I reference his evaluation as a sign that a legitimate coach who was not dealing out of desperation chose to draft Mahomes top ten. It is not ridiculous to argue that Mahomes is a potential franchise qb, though individuals are free to judge differently, of course.
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Coughlin was a much better coach when he learned to at least pretend to mellow a bit.
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Assuming Mahomes is a franchise QB. Which is, after all, just an assumption with no basis in fact.
Well, I take it that Darnold, Rosen, and Allen are also assumptions. Andy Reid thinks Mahomes has the potential to be a franchise qb or he wouldn't have paid the price to go up and get him. Naturally, and I did not think it needed to be stated, when I say franchise qb, I mean a prospect with fairly good potential to be a franchise qb. Isn't that inherent in the draft when one is not selecting proven NFL commodities? Teams have missed on qbs taken at the top before. Let's see how certain the 2018 class looks a year from now and whether or not we are in a position to grab one. We know for sure we could have drafted Mahomes or Watson or Kizer for that matter.
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This feels like a no-brainer to me and they are making the wrong decision. You commit to Sammy through next year with the option and go from there. This is not the way to do business with your most talented players.
I understand the injury factor, but that particular foot surgery often needs a second surgery. Afterwards, it is usually not a problem. Mediocre qbs at best, not targeting him enough, and now this. Not smart, imo.
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We could always throw in the 2019 first rounder. A team would be crazy to turn down 3 number 1 picks for a trade up to the number 1 spot.
Yes, that is the thought I keep hearing. Cleveland has two firsts and three seconds next year. If the team with the top picks is the Jets or SF, they will likely prefer the franchise qb. They simply won't trade out. Lots of moving parts. My point is the notion that we can just throw on another first and presto is way too optimistic. Meanwhile, Mahomes was available at #10 and we could have let him sit for a development year and not had to worry about obtaining a franchise qb.
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Infatuation always wears off. As a writer, I know I can't rely on inspiration alone. It's too fickle.
I think we are going to regret passing on Mahomes. We will need considerable fortune to end up with one of the top 2018 qbs.
Those who think we can turn both 2018 firsts plus into a sure top two or three pick are blithely over-confident.
We could easily be shut out; meanwhile, Mahomes could have been learning while the bridge qb continues to lack anticipation and the rookie shows anticipation but a pop gun arm, and the holdover project has a cannon and probably not much else.
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Cleveland, Jets, SF, Pittsburgh, Cardinals, just off the top of my head, lots of teams will be jockeying to get one of the 2018 class. Cleveland has two ones and three twos. Jets and 49ers will not trade out. No guarantee OBD will end up with a chair when the music stops. Mahomes and Watson were birds-in-hand. I consider them potential franchise qbs. I would have taken Mahomes at ten. Unless the Bills are worse than their habitual "wretched mediocrity" it will cost them much more than the first and third they gained by trading out of ten.
Peterman would have gone much earlier if he had a decent arm. He doesn't and I doubt his ceiling rises above okay backup.
P.S. Forgot about the Chargers. Nice avatar. I somehow acquired a feral colony about ten years ago.
I myself am servant to an ancient Persian.
Bills GM Candidates
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
You would have to create two upper management jobs that were obvious promotions. I suppose its possible.