khlax3
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Posts posted by khlax3
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My prediction:
Curtis samuel
shakir
draft pick (McConkey/Franklin)
OBJ
Hollins
Shorter/late Rd pick/Hamler/isabella
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22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Some of us did not like the 2022 offseason at the time and it has proven to be pretty much an unmitigated disaster:
Free Agent signings:
Jordan Phillips - $5m
Tim Settle - $9m
Daquan Jones - $14m
Von Miller - $120m
Roger Saffold - $6.25m
Ryan Bates - $17m
OJ Howard - $3.5m
Jameson Crowder - $2m
Extension:
Stefon Diggs - $96m
First round pick:
Kaiir Elam
I know he had some decent success with some of his later picks - Cook, Bernard, Benford - but it is by any standards a bit of a disaster of an offseason.
22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
As far as the draft goes Elam was a major miss but overall I would consider that draft a success getting Cook, Bernard, and Benford, and Shakir.As for the diggs extension he was producing at a high level and they paid him a market rate. If they would have an he would have walked or moved on then people would be upset they didn’t keep him. Yea it didn’t work out but overall at the time it seemed like a reasonable deal.
Von produced when he came in and looked exactly like the player we wanted. He got hurt that’s not in Beane’s control. Jones was a very good signing and crowder was worth a swing at that price.
Bates was also a fine signing you paid him about 4 million a year to compete as a starter and be a top back up plus got a 5th round pick for him. If you didn’t sign him you were getting nothing for him.
Beane has some hits and misses every year like any GM as others have mentioned. Anyone who thinks ever other gm hits on all their draft picks and free agents doesn’t follow other teams at all. If anything I get Beane’s draft production is better than most in the NFL.
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2 hours ago, Beck Water said:
Samuel and Davis are very different players. Davis was trying to be that Boundary Guy and he really didn't get it done when asked to be that clever route runner over the middle. Samuel had his best year, with Joe Brady, playing something like 70+% of his snaps from the slot. I think a more realistic hope is that he'll be the Beasley replacement Crowder and McKenzie were supposed to be.
I really like how Shakir came on last year and how Kincaid looked as a rookie - so smooth! But I think it's a long stretch to think Kincaid can replace Diggs.
But with all respect, here's the thing: I think this "Jenga Game" with WR where the Bills (not just you) look at WR and argue something like "Davis sure looked All World in the playoffs against the Colts in 2020 and against KC in 2021. And McKenzie has been stuck behind Beasley on the depth chart, but he seized his opportunity and showed what he could do against NWE and earlier against the Dolphins. So we don't need to "splash" in FA or in the draft this year.
We project from what guys can do in an occasional game or while the D is focused on someone else. The Bills seem to do this, too.It doesn't necessarily work that way, though.
Not saying these guys are 1 to 1 replacements but I think they can replace the production those guys offered. I truly think Brady wants to get away from that 1a type receiver that we force the ball to and gets 160 targets. I could very well see the hall spread all over with maybe no one getting 1000 yards but 3-4 guys all getting around 50-70 catches for 900 yards.
I think people are getting caught up to much on what positioning these guys play (inside/outside) Samuel, Kincaid, and Shakir can line up anywhere. Cook can split out wide and Knox is pretty versatile too. For red zone your have Knox, Kincaid and Hollins who are all big targets.
I think what got us into trouble in the first half of last year was trying to force it to diggs. In the second half when diggs really didn’t look like a number 1 and they were spreading the ball around diggs, Kincaid, and Shakir all had similar numbers
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1 hour ago, eme123 said:
The only number that matters is the score at the end. There are 53 guys that contribute to that. Since you asked here is the oh so important 2023 receiving stats.
Diggs 107rec 1183yds 8tdDavis 45rec 746yds 7td
Kincaid 73rec 673yds 2td
Shakir 39rec 611yds 2td
Cook 44rec 445yds 4td
Pick and choose games all you want. The fact is the Bills are weaker on the fire power end of things without Diggs.
Diggs is great no doubt but just looking at this Samuel should be able to put up Davis numbers pretty easily. I think kincaid could end up being close to Diggs numbers last year (maybe 90 catches for 1000). Shakir should be able to replicate Kincaid numbers from last year so you need a rookie to replace shakir’s 39 catches and 600 yards. Not really all that crazy.-
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3 hours ago, Evansfan322 said:
Going to struggle this year. Rookie WRs take time and Samuel isn’t a #1
I am not predicting shakir will become a number 1 but once Brady took over he had more production than diggs on less targets. Both are 5th round picks with very similair combine numbers. I could very easily see shakir getting 70-80 catches for 1000-1100 yards with more targets.Samuel will see a fair share of targets and I expect he will be more productive than Davis was
Kincaid will also see more targets and I think Knox will be utilized more this year now that he is healthy.
The bills offense struggled when we tried to force the ball to diggs. I think they will be much more productive spreading it around and having 4-5 wr in the 50-70 catch range for 700-1000 than 1 guy getting the bill of the targets
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It’s super annoying to have to subscribe to a bunch of different services but at the same time it’s $6. You can watch the game then cancel and you still have access for the next 30 days to watch movies and shows.
Once again it’s $6 for 4 hours of entertainment. You can’t do anything for $6, going to a move cost 3x that, going to grab fast food costs 2x that, going out to a bar cost a minimum that.
For years people said let me just buy the games I want to watch and not pay for the nfl ticket. Well here you go this is that
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57 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
Well they’ll draft 2 guys there. If you’re that concerned about the age of our 5th and 6th DTs (being under 31), advocate for Ankou and our 6th round pick over Williams.
Ankou will be 30 in June so he is also not young. I like the move. DT generally take some time to develop. Draft 1 if he beats this guy out for the 4th spot awesome Williams can be the 5th DT if he doesn’t at least you got a guy with starting experience. Ankou can go on the practice squad again and be available if there are injuries -
I think they will use a 4th or 5th on a corner and then also grab a guy in the summer before camp opens in FA. There will be guys cut after the draft and we have tre’s money opening up after 6/1. I don’t believe Levi Wallace has signed anywhere yet he could be their fallback option.
I do think they want to give Elam a shot at corner this year as the number 3. He has shown some flashes when he has gotten in and eventually they need to let him play some.
I am not a big Hamlin fan but he did start the majority of games prior to last season. I think they intentionally had him inactive most of last season due to numbers but also to ease him back in mentally. As a 4th or 5th saftey he is fine. I would expect a guy in the middle rounds at saftey as well. Tykee smith makes a lot of sense. Played under Addae at WVU and Georgia. Has experience in both SEC and Big 12 and has played in 2 different schemes. He is slightly under sized but fairly athletic with a 4.46 40.
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Last round to UDFA guy that I think would really fit with this D and can play special teams in CB Beanie Bishop JR (WVU). Projects as a slot corner in NFL
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If Thomas JR or Mitchell aren’t there at 28 I would trade back into the early 2nd and hopefully pick up a 3rd round pick. Draft Leggette or Franklin with that pick then grab DLine and safeties with next few picks
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1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Bottom line they draft a hell of a lot better than us.
Not really, according to that post the Chiefs have 9 starters called out drafted since 2021. The bills have 8 and had way fewer high picks than the chiefs due to the Hill tradekincaid (2023 1st)
Torrence (2023 2nd)
cook (2022 2nd)
Bernard (2022 3rd)
shakir (2022 5th)
benford (2022 6th)
Rousseau (2021 1st)
Brown (2021 3rd)
Besides getting jumped for Mcduffie and having to settle for Elam our drafting is nearly identical
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I do think we are more likely to carry 6 WR this year compared to t he past few years or only carrying 5. With matakevich and Neal gone if the WR 5 and 6 can contribute on offense and special teams k think they will go that direction
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8 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:
Where are the holes right now?
based on the numbers they kept last year at each position they still need:2 Safties
1-2 CB
1-2 LB
2 DT
1-2 DE
2 RB
1-2 OL
2-3 WR
and they also don’t have a guy who could be KR/PR currently
That is just to get to a 53 man roster. Your also going to need completion for guys like Doyle, Hamlin and other end of roster guys-
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15 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:
I dont see any smaller signings right now at WR. It doesnt make sense. You would lose one of your compensatory for a player that you dont think would contribute and you are going to draft over likely multiple times in a Once in a Generation WR draft.
I don’t know if we will sign a WR (we should along with a draft pick) but I don’t think this is the year we are going to be able to worry about comp picks. With the number of guys we released we need to fill out the roster and we will likely need to sign more guys than we lose as FA. Not building a complete roster this year to potentially get a 5th round next year is not worth it
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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Something’s gotta be off with the cap calculation or there are still some more moves still coming because we can’t field a full team right now cap wise according to the cap numbers last updated in this thread. We wouldn’t even be able to sign any rookies, let alone fill out the rest of the roster.
Rookies a moves for in season stuff will come from tre’s post 6/1 money. Agree we need to bring in several more free agents to fill out roster though
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Sherfield is a FA
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This move replaces Neal for less money and more versatility
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I personally wouldn’t consider cook elite yet but he is close and based on your criteria of top 3-4 his position his stats suggest he is.
2023 cook finished:
3rd is rushing
8th in receiving for rb
3 all purpose yards
his tds were low but that’s because they just let Allen rush anytime we are inside the 5 yard line.
I am not disagreeing that we don’t have enough top talent but Kincaid, cook, and potentially Bernard could move into that category soon. The problem to me is we do not have top talent where it matters most. Dline, CB, WR
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11 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Sporttrac has our rookie pool at nearly 11.5 million.
they are not factoring in the guys they would replace on the roster. If your adding 11 guys through the draft you would be eliminating the bottom 11 salaries on the team would are all about 797k-989k each.so you would only have a net of couple million needed for draft picks
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I would love to see Curtis Samuel on like a 3 year deal if he could be had for like 8 million a year. He has had his best season under Brady, brings some speed to the offense, is still pretty young at 27, and gives you a vet on the roster next year if you move on from diggs.
*I would still want a 1st or 2nd rounder receiver as well
There are much bigger names out there but this is a realistic target I would be very satisfied with
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59 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:
QB, LB & TE room are done.
Likely need 1 more linebacker with Dodson and matekovich gone. Likely a late rounder or cheap vet that has strong special teams ability.
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4 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Rookies right now cost about 11 mill and tre's post June 1st pretty much covers it
Even if we draft 11 players in the draft the picks will only cost between 4-5 million in cap space.
round 1- 2.4 million
Round 2- 1.17 million
Round 3- 1.011 million
All other rounds are a minimum type salary. All of these players would replace existing minimum contracts on the roster and it would be a wash cap wise. Honestly if you drafted 11 players and they all made the team you might actually gain space as they would likely be replacing guys who make more than the rookie contracts
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39 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:
You hear/read posts all the time and comments themselves from the Bills, the team needs to draft and develop players to stay out of salary cap problems. But yet you're ready to give up on Shorter who was just drafted last year in 5th round. Signing, drafting, and spending money on players that don't have a clear spot to make the roster is a waste and will keep you in cap trouble all the time.
If Shorter is not on the team this year, that would be a big failure by the Bills in that they totally wasted a draft pick without ever giving him a chance to see what he can and can't do. But I have faith in the team that they are smart enough to not do something that stupid and he will be on the roster this year.
Likely the Bills have room for 2 WR unless they want to waste more money. Just glad you're not the GM, or maybe you're actually Russ Brandon posting with a new name as this sounds like something he'd have done!
Shorter is a late round gamble who has underperformed at both penn st and Florida. He has limited special teams experience which is going to be something he must do as a 4th or 5th wr on the team. If he wasn’t on IR last year he was probably a 50-50 shot to make the team. Once he was eligible to return off IR and his window was activated they never dressed him. I hope he works out but I’m surely brining in multiple receivers to compete with him -
9 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:
Love to hear how you came up with these numbers other than wishful thinking? TE none, yet they carried 3 all season and now only have two plus one ERFA At WR they have 4 signed, Shakir, Diggs, Shorter, and Sherfield 5 if you count Isabella and all they ever carried was 5. But yet you state they need 3 to 4 more!! 2 at RB is about right, will give you that one.
Saftey- we only have Rapp and Hamlin they usually carry 4-5 safeties. Hamlin is not a lock to make the roster
CB- we lost Neal, white, Jackson they will have to add at least 1-2 if not more
LB- we lost Dodson, and matekovich. They will bring in at least 1 LB maybe 2 if one is a core special teamer
DT and DE- we usually carry 10 right now we have 4 on the roster and Kingsley Jonothan is not a lock at all as he barely played last year.
TE- i highly doubt they spend any resources here. Cap space or draft picks. You have Knox Kincaid and Morris who is a core special teamer and has been with the team several years. As a ERFA he can’t play for another team unless the Bills release him. ERFA are paid a minimum salary and he is one of the few core special teamer we have left on the team he will be back. They also have 2 other guys on future deals that were with the practice squad last year.
RB- they always carry 3 and have 1 right now. I would expect probably a vet and late round rookie
WR- They usually carry 5 but possibly will Carry 6 if one is a special teamer. Shorter has never played a snap and even tho Harty ans Sherfield we’re not great last year he never stuck on the roster or played much when he was called up. I don’t think either one is a guarantee. Sherfield is also a FA. Right now the only 2 WR we know will be on the team are Diggs and Shakir. I would imagine 1 of hamler, Isabella, shorter makes the team and we add a minimum of 2 WR but more likely 3 -4 with one being a returner/special teams guy
Trade Targets for Bills (WR)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Not a trade but DJ Chark makes sense. 6-3 200lbs runs a 4.34.
Give your the size speed guy then draft a player early as well. But gives you flexibility in the draft in the type of WR to draft