krazykat

Which teams did Hardy/Indiana play that finished top 25? Let's start there.

Well, OK, and that's a different angle, so I'll jump in on apples-to-apples fashion here. How can he be accurate when in five of 9 starts he threw for under 53.5%, often much less like in the Giants game? I mean what you're saying is that the reason for the incompletes had nothing to do with him. OK. I disagree. Clearly not all were his fault, but a good many were. I happened to notice that in the team's efforts to keep sacks down, he often overlooked some big play potential downfield in exchange for short, easy passes. I mean he had YPAs and YPCs better than only Cleo Lemon and Brady Coyle! This is good? I'm also not snide and condescending and if you construe it that way I don't know what to say. But I'm a little astonished here at what passes for so called thoughtful analysis. If you want to just say that for no reason you expect Edwards to step up and play well, then fine, do it. But several here, with you just being the next in line, just keep slinging soft issue mud against the wall hoping it will stick, apparently. I don't recognize the tactic otherwise. As to "in a couple of years," he doesn't have a couple of years. He has this season. He was hand-selected by Jauron and our personnel staff. If this flops, then get rid of the batch. He replaced Losman who was not good, but by the same measures that you and other praise Edwards, Losman probably had more solid "hopefuls." He did pitch what, something like 17 TDs and only 9 INTs the season prior, the first one in which he started. You talk about what was fair for Edwards, but was the way Losman has been treated fair? He got jockeyed in and out every season except for '06, and the team didn't have Lynch either, or Dockery or Walker, whom you praise too probably along with a better OL in '07 than '06. So we can definitely say that he did more with less, except in the book of those that don't want JP here, to succeed, or whatever. Now, I'm gonna pick a game purely at random. Let's pick the one with the median Compl. %, OK? We'll use only his starts which means 9 games and a single median game, which is Philly unless I'm in error on the middle game. I'm gonna look up the play-by-play and we can analyze that game. I honestly do not know what to expect as I write this, but we'll see. Presumably you trust that. Anyway, here are his drives in that game: Here's the link: http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/2...HI_Gamebook.pdf 42-degrees in Philly, cloudy, moderate humidity, no rain/weather otherwise. Very nice football day, particularly for December, and in a game that the Bills were clearly trying to win to go .500, right. Good. There were no significant injuries on offense either. The Bills basically had 9 drives in that game. 1st Drive: The Bills get the ball at their 32 after the KO. Looks like Edwards scrambled for 2 yards on the first play. Lynch then picks up a 1st down on a run. Edwards then throws a 4-yard pass to Royal before throwing incomplete to Parrish to force a punt. OK, was that accurate? As I see it, the Bills drive ended on TE's inaccuracy. 2nd Drive: Starting at our own 30 apparently the coaching staff had no confidence in TE whatsoever as we ran three times and out where we got stuffed on 3rd-and-1. (Lynch) 3rd Drive: Edwards had two incompletions missing short to Evans and the deep to Evans on 3rd and 8. Naturally none of that was his fault. Presumably all of these passes are bouncing out of the hands and off the chests of all of our receivers like Evans and Parrish who haven't proven that they can catch yet in the NFL. Again, presumably. 4th Drive: A decent drive for Edwards who basically thrived on short throws. The drive ended however in the red zone when Edwards threw a 2-yard pass on 3rd-and-4. Smart? A heads up play? Poised? 5th Drive: In fairness to TE I don't count the drive (2 plays) to end the 1st H. With great field position it's another decent TE drive again thriving on short passes, the biggest of which appears to have been a short outlet to Lynch who turned it into a bigger gain. 22 yards. Can't blame TE for choking on 3rd and 16 in the red zone though. Tough situation for any QB. No praise either though. 6th Drive: Down by 11 with the game still winnable, Edwards only two passes on this drive were short and incomplete. Again, can we assume that none of this had to do with him? 7th Drive: This was another 3 and out with the coaching staff not letting TE throw it. Why not? I mean 2nd-and-2 are TE specialties in passing. 8th Drive: 4 of 5 incomplete on this drive. He did scramble for 10 on a broken play seemingly although that has little to do with what we're discussing. 9th Drive: On this last drive with plenty of time to mount a drive and within a TD + a 2 pointer, Edwards hits on his first deep pass of the day to push the Bills to just past midfield before throwing 2 incompletes and then a pass for -7 yards to Jackson on a 3rd-and-10. That was pretty much it. It is interesting to note that this was his 9th start and if anything, after a season's worth of experience he probably should have posted one of his better games, yet he didn't. No TDs, reallly only two drives worth mentioning yet even then not without their issues, and lots of incompletes on key passes as I see it. Now you'll argue an say things like Evans went out with an injury just before the half and apparently didn't return, but I will defer to early in that game and other games where Evans being in there still didn't matter. We can do this for every game if you like. Either way, he finished 16 of 33 for 133 yards, a 4.0 YPA and an 8.3 YPC, and against a defense that really wasn't great. He finished with a rating of 65.0. Now, I don't know how anyone can find much hope in games like that, and remember, there were at least four worse from a compl. % perspective and believe me, if we go thru some of the other four that were higher, we will find significant issues in at least two of those games as well. So say what you want, defend TE as you'd like, but the facts speak louder than anyone's opinion on the matter as they always do. Just because you choose to override and ignore them is your business. Either way, once again, someone else, put forth an argument that really has no basis.

If the players in the other 21 starting spots played to the level that Whitner does, we'd have a 12-4 to 14-2 team capable of beating the Pats and Colts on a regular basis. Whitner is not what's holding this team back. On that note, how many players play to his level, whatever that is? I'd say on defense Schobel has, but he seems to be at a career crossroads and in the back nine of his career. Otherwise I'd say no one on D or O besides Evans whose being held back by offensive coordination and QB issues. McGee brings it on STs as does Moorman. I didn't count Stroud because he hasn't taken a snap for us yet.

Well, that's what you hope for, but if every 1st round pick turned into an above average starter, with a little help from free agency and with your 2nd round picks turning into at least average starters, you would have a good team overall. Throw in a little "luck" with late round picks, and off to the races. Could we have done better than Whitner, sure. But we could have done a helluva lot worse too.

You know, once again I just don't know what to do with posts like this. Are you engaging me? If so, then you're just setting yourself up for the easy spike. Here were Edwards game by game stats in games that he started: Opp Cmp Att % NWE 10 20 50.0% NYJ 22 28 78.6% DAL 23 31 74.2% BAL 11 21 52.4% NYJ 14 21 66.7% WAS 22 36 61.1% MIA 11 23 47.8% CLE 13 33 39.4% NYG 9 26 34.6% PHI 16 30 53.3% First of all, your statement isn't even correct at face value. He threw 53% in the Philly game, 48% in the Miami game that he threw 4 TDs in, 52% v. Baltimore and 50% v. NE in a non-start. Second of all, did you ever ask why his percentages were so high in some games yet his yardage, the team's ability to move the ball, and particularly offensive scoring were so piss poor? Is the goal to avoid sacks and have a high completion percentage? If in your mind that's the case, then we can end even discussing this. Otherwise, here are the team's offensive scores and total yardage and passing yardage in his only four games in which he pitched at over 53.5%: Jets 78.6% - 14 offensive, 3 STs/FG, 304 net yards, 218 net passing. One TD drive was 25 yards set up by a D-INT. Dallas 74.2% - 0 offensive, 3 STs/FG, 229 net yards, 148 net passing. Jets 66.7% - 0 offensive, 6 STs/FG, 7 offensive (Losman to Evans in last minutes), 180 net yards and 126 net passing w/ Edwards in there. The team put up almost as many yards in both categories with Losman in there on the last four drives on which the team scored the last 10 and winning points. Washington 61.1% - 0 offensive, 15 STs/FGs, 357 net yards, 257 net passing. Now, are you really willing to back up the notion that that was anything but piss poor? I mean are you really trying to defend Edwards, rookie or not, based on the notions of his completion percentages? And here are his 1st-down passes in those games respectively: 15 9 10 10 I'm just not getting it here. If you want to defend Edwards, I'm sure there are things that you can say. But this is a bit ridiculous, don't you think? I mean three games with 0 offensive points and you're boasting based on some other meaningless stat considering that. And only 14 offensive points against the Jets, whose defense had more holes than ours. In the meantime, here are the rest of his starts: Opp Cmp Att % BAL 11 21 52.4% MIA 11 23 47.8% CLE 13 33 39.4% NYG 9 26 34.6% PHI 16 30 53.3%

Thanks, but no. I didn't bash Butler, but to tell you the truth, it was more AJ than Butler. And the point is reinforced since SD's only improved since Butler's passing under AJ. I was one of the lone voices in the wind bashing Donahoe even before they put the contract together, and staunchly. There was plenty of info out there to suggest that what happened would happen.

I understand what you're saying, I simply see a bust QB based on my years of experience and watching QBs, football, etc. I've pared your response to the stuff you want me to address and to another point(s) of interest; 1. See, here's one of the differences between you and I. I will evaluate Edwards based on his play, not necessarily and exclusivel the team's record. If we're 3-5 but Edwards has a rating of 85 and has 10 TDs and only 6 picks and the offense is averaging 21 ppg, and we're losing games because we're averaging 26 PA us, then I will be light on him. Also, if Lynch say were to have gotten hurt and Edwards is playing OK otherwise, IMO that'd be a feather in his cap. On the other hand, if we're 5-3 but he's pitched 11 INTs to 6 TDs and Lynch has carried the team offensively while we've won a game or two on the merits of D/STs, then I give him zero credit. 2. If he's playing well you'll hear it from me first if I'm around. Otherwise, you say that there's no denying that he had a couple of really crappy games last year. So allow me to challenge you. Of his starts, which games do you think weren't "really crappy?" 3. That's a tough question because this team IMO is so far down the wrong path that only a complete rebuild will fix it. First, we need a GM that understands the environment from a managerial and personnel standpoint, and one that understands that the lines are where it all starts. We don't have that and haven't for a while since AJ Smith and Polian left. We need a coach that understands the same things. We don't have one. We need a personnel department with a staff that gets it and has a track record of decent moves. Neither Modrak, Guy, or Majeski have that. I'd fire all three and either promote some new ones or get someone that knows WTF he's doing immediately. Much of the team's issues have to do with talent. You will see more acquisitions not stepping up this year, I promise you. Otherwise, l more or less view your question as a drunken driver handing me the keys to his car which sits straddling a guard rail with the two drive wheels in the air telling me that he agrees to let me drive now. Yeah, thanks. LOL Also, we have image problems too. Ruben Brown, Jennings, McGahee, Pat Williams, Spikes, now Evans and JP, and probably a few more, have left the team in recent years talking about how shi--y this team is from their/player standpoint. Regardless of whether or not it's true, and I have no reason to doubt them coupled with my own observations, it's a perception that this team now faces. If we s--t the bed again this year, where will we be? At square one. Then we start all over where Wilson goes on the cheap for everything. 4. You talk about how the OL improved last season. But at the end of the year were some of our worst games in terms of ball movement and scoring. Again, your "thinking" doesn't match reality. The defenses that we faced were not good either.

On the above, you say all of that initially but then I will counter with yeah, but we were still terrible on offense and not good on D. So what you're saying in essence is "look at all of these piece parts, they're great. I can't wait." What I'm saying is "yeah, but the sum of the parts still stunk. I think you're overvaluing the individual parts or something else must explain it all." Yes, Fairchild is gone, but the D wasn't good and Fewell still remains as does the person overseeing it all in Jauron, whose track record after 8 seasons sucks. As to the QBs, I pointed out one enormous difference between Edwards and Eli Manning, and you just completely ignored it. So you'll see what you want to see there. All I can say is let's reconvene about a month or two into the season and reevaluate there. I can also point out some QBs too from the same source, which is a very good source and very legit: All former 1st-round picks: David Carr 16 Games, 2,592, 9-15 Joey Harrington 14 Games, 2,294, 12-16 Patrick Ramsey 10 Games, 1,539, 9-8 Tim Couch 15 Games, 2,447, 15-13 Cade McNown 15 Games, 1,465 8-10 Heath Shuler 11 Games, 1,658, 10-12 Rick Mirer, 16 Games, 2,833, 12-17 Everyone, most drafted high in the 1st, was a complete bust. All of them, or just about all of them, played better than TE and most didn't even have the talent that TE had. So what? So which one of us is "right" based on the evidence presented? You can't simply throw up the play of other QBs and apply that to another QB under different circumstances and a variety of different factors. I will dismiss my list as quickly as I dismiss yours. I will also say that most of them didn't have even a Marshawn Lynch or Lee Evans. It's one thing to suggest that Evans was tied up in double coverage all the time which is reasonable. But he was tied up with Losman too and JP did more with it. Either way, my point is not between the two, but is that most of those other QBs on my list didn't even have that talent to get tied up to begin with. Most teams don't even have a Lee Evans much less two or three very good WRs. So all of this talk is as if Edwards needs the equivalent of the Colts skill position talent around him just to make it fair so that he can become average. I'm not buying it. In fact, I think you and everyone else will be all over him by midseason. But we'll see. Not much more to discuss now. You see what you want to see, and I see a QB that had one very good game from a TD perspective but only a fairly decent game by other measures, and no good games besides that. I don't really understand what there is to build on. Yes, things have changed, but "changes" do not guarantee results. Either way, he did suck in every game but one, perhaps two. Otherwise start listing the games that you think he "didn't suck" in and we can carry on the converstion about those. You up for it? But you can't just dismiss the notion that he didn't suck when he did except for really one game vs. the 1-15 Dolphins.

The Jets were 10-6 in '06 and had two other 10-6 seasons in the five seasons prior to that and in two of the last four seasons and have made the playoffs five times in the past seven seasons. The Bills haven't had a winning season since '99 besides their infamous 9-7 outting in '04 where they lost to the Steelers' 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stringers in the last game of the season to prevent them from making the playoffs and otherwise haven't made the playoffs since '99. But let's see, Sportscenter's preview isn't favorable, and both PFW and TSN predict 7-9 for the Bills, and the Vegas O/U is 7.5. Couldn't it be that the ones that are not being realistic are those that clearly have a bias for this team and see everything coming up roses this season?

In parts: We have mostly had "long and shi--y seasons" for a while now with any hopes being of the white-knuckle variety and always directly hinged to how bad our competition is. Regardless, we cannot ccntrol that so one way or another we're just along for the ride. No problem however and I appreciate the clarification. As to the team "trying to address the needs," I believe it has tried, I just believe that it has people in key positions that are inept, ignorant, just not very bright, or some combination of those things. Otherwise our drafts would have produced a lot more than just a continual revolving door of hopes that keeps flipping around every third year with hardly any players from more than three or four drafts ago still on the team and no impact ones. Not to mention that fact that we really don't have any impact players Lynch's and Stroud's seasons pending. I mean when your biggest impact players by a long shot are your P and KR, WTF does that say? I mean honestly, those two, Moorman and McGee, are collectively the team's MVP now since they've been with us almost. You talk about the team having done a nice job of addressing the DT position; First of all, let's not talk about Stroud since we don't know how he will play this year. It's not unwise to think that he may not be the player he was. He's always been tops IMO, but he's got injury issue resolutions and we don't know to what extents his steroid use factored in. Otherwise, allow me to recount for your the efforts of the team to address our DT situation since Pat Williams and Ted Washington left in '05 and '01 respectively; Sam Adams whom the team overpaid for and who provided spotty and inconsistent play; Ron Edwards 3rd Round '01; Justin Bannan 5th round '02; Lavale Sape 6th Round '03; Tim "High Motor" Andersen 3rd Round '04; John "Trade Up" McCargo 1st Round '06; Kyle Williams 5th Round '06. The jury's very much out on McCargo with this pretty much being the year that he needs to be able to pin down a starting spot and show that he's capable of being an every down DT like Stroud if trading up into the 1st is to be justified. Otherwise the decision to trade up hasn't been in two seasons now, and 1st rounders are expected to start, at least DL players, immediately. You don't draft them as depth. Well, I suppose the Bills do. Otherwise, let me ask you openly, which of those moves in seven offseasons addressing the DT spot have been very good decisions? Can you name one free agent brought on board to play DT that did it well during that time? Otherwise, so what, eight seasons after you and I agree we had issues, we finally bring in Stroud and this is good management as you see it? Also, you talk about McCargo disrupting plays, I think you've been reading Chris Brown and the Bills' stuff too much. He's been incredibly inconsistent, has hardly any sacks to show for all that effort, and it's not as if teams must "plan for him" making sacks difficult. He also hasn't even been able to hold down a starting spot. So something's not adding up here. He is definitely not an impact player. See, one of the things that I've noticed is that fans often see one or a few plays by a player and in their mind that becomes the standard and norm for what that player brings. Sure, McCargo, just like just about every other player in the NFL has his moments, but they're rare. You can't take Edwards' Miami game, or McCargo's Miami game and make them the standard. Meanwhile, he has what, 2.5 sacks last year and one of them vs. Denver fell right into his lap. After that he had 1.5 in the final game of the season. He isn't a great run stuffer or our run D wouldn't be so bad. You mention TFL but he hardly had any tackles for a DT to begin with. I don't want to get off on McCargo, but look at the big picture and reconsider your position. Either way, this is McCargo's 3rd season, he's not coming off a rookie season, and in looking at the big picture of our DTs since TW and PW left, if we had done a good job for seven seasons then we wouldn't have needed to go get Stroud this offseason. Plain and simple. If we both had a dollar for every player that came into the NFL that "tried to get better" and failed we'd both be able to take an all-expense paid two-week trip to Europe. See, this is the difference between us. You read what others write, listen to talk of players, writers, coaches, GMs, etc. as if they've never been wrong probably about as often as they are right or perhaps even more since they all tell you how they will all make the playoffs too. I mean of the 32 teams, how many coaches tell you that they will make the playoffs that season or that they believe they have the team in place to make them? What, 20? 25? 30? Only 12 make it. So many are wrong. Ditto on players. Anyway, I don't care what Carrucci says. He's been massively wrong too. He also doesn't sit down and analyze our team the way you and I can and do. He wouldn't have time to do that and do it for all the other 31 teams that he covers, plus draft coverage, player movement, and all the other things he rights about, and still have time for himself and his family and remain sane. So you would be wise to discount what they say. As well, others don't share Carrucci's confidence, yet you would dismiss them, as professionals too. So how can you insist who is right and wrong before it happens? The facts are that Edwards didn't play well. In my mind that had a lot to do with him yet I acknowledge that the team wasn't a playoff team around him for other reasons that impugn the organization however. I also recognize that the team bent over backwards for him to help him along by doing all that they could otherwise and he still sucked. So that's a two-edged sword which you're not willing to acknowledge. There are both pros and cons to his play this season. But the fact is that, and for whatever reason(s), he sucked last year. So he works from there. You on the other hand only make excuses. In this paragraph for example you only talk about how hard he's trying and what he's doing to improve as if everyone that has done that has succeeded when you know how foolish that take is on its own merits. As to the Mannings you're wrong. Peyton had 26 TDs as a rookie and only went up from there. Eli started only 7 games vice 9 and was a lot more consistent, BUT, he struggled in his first five starts and then came on in his last three starts to throw 5 TDs v. 3 INTs and had two games rated over 100 and one was against the 15-1 Steelers, not the "almost 0-16" Fins. You honestly don't see a difference in the pattern of their rookie play, do you? Otherwise, fair enough. When Edwards puts up the 24 TDs and 17 INTs that Eli did in his second season, perhaps we will agree with your position. But tell me, if/when that doesn't happen, are you only going to make more excuses? Or will you then admit that perhaps he's been overrated by the media? 2007 rankings: Iowa: Pass: 62nd, Total: 36th Penn State: Pass: 39th, Total: 11th Purdue: Pass: 75th, Total: 63rd Once again, get your facts straight. Otherwise, we'll see. Again, I'm not saying that Hardy won't do anything. Based on the general performance of rookie WRs though, I am definitely suggesting that since there really aren't any other major changes to the O besides just more talk from having Schonert at OC even though he's never done that, that I don't expect much of an upswing in offensive performance as a team this fall. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Hardy do what you say, namely post about 500 yards and 5 TDs, but I also don't think that's gonna change things significantly. The Big 12 was also relatively weak last year contrasted with past seasons. We've been saying this for years yet our front office keeps crapping out at the table regarding their draft picks and we hardly ever get great free agents. One or two here or there aren't going to make the difference. Also, if Hardy comes in and Evans leaves, which now looks to be the case, then we're just spinning our wheels in the mud. NE is well managed and well coached in spite of all the cheating going on over there. We are not. Jauron is a poor coach, Brandon is a novice OJT GM, and our personnel guys have only proven that they aren't up to the task and have done a poor job for seven seasons now with only what, one winning season and a lackluster one at that. "Better" when you measure players is relative. And I hope we're getting better players because up until now we have more or less had a team of backups that played starter. After that, just read your last paragraph again and pay attention to what I've bolded for you and then tell me how much of that is something substantive that we as fans can hang our hats on? I mean do you truly believe that if enough people "think" and "hope" that it will make a difference? What will Jauron do with varying degrees of fan hopes? Will he alter anything? Do the players even know who believes/thinks/hopes what? They all believe that they are good otherwise they shouldn't even suit up. Coaches all talk about making the playoffs or they shouldn't coach unless they are in year one of a rebuild. I mean they've been saying the exact same things in Buffalo for years and often with more actual reason for hope even. I think that the team in '05 was better than this one from a talent perspective. Meanwhile, as you talk about all the stuff going forward, Schobel is in his last couple of seasons and if last year was any implication then he's finished as anything besides just a solid starter. Evans appears to be on his way out. Hardy had better become a top 10 WR in a hurry if you want improvement next year if that happens. If Stroud is anything but exceptional then he's on his back-9 easily too. And if Edwards is what I'm telling you he is, a complete bust, then this team ain't goin' anywhere in the next two or three seasons because we don't even have one QB waiting in the wings and JP wants out and will get out after this season. That's an awful lot to be hoping happens. But we'll see.

Thanks! No, just noticed how late Steve Johnson was drafted considering he had a heck of a year and played very well in some big visibile games. See, once again, you are looking at the high level stats and not how he did in individual games. But naturally, having done your homework you noticed that he rarely if ever has very good games against top passing defenses or even top defenses in general, right? To me that matters since the NFL isn't exactly laden with players from Ball St., Indiana St., Western Michigan, and Akron. To you it may not. But the better indication is how will he play against NFL caliber competition, but if he didn't play well vs. top 30 college Ds then why will he excel against NFL caliber Ds and DBs? I'm not saying he won't, he may very well. But I'm not sold and I'd expect a player like Johnson to do a lot more because he's proven that he can do it against that top competition and especially in the big games. You and others talk as if collegiate performance translates to NFL effectiveness automatically when you should know better and probably do but are just ignoring what you know. Either way, if players struggle against the best in college, what basis is there for more hope in the NFL?

First, let me say thank you for actually posting facts that you rely on for making your argument. You're welcome. Thank you! To your points w/o printing your entire response: My point on the players is that more has been expected than delivered, by a wide margin. We're on the same sheet regarding most. Youboty hasn't done anything for a reason, he's not good. As a trade up player into the 1st round, far more was expected from McCargo and he too has failed to deliver. From that you expect an every-day full-time starter, which he clearly isn't. And his play in NC aside, which I believe was overrated, he does anything but make this line go. So we can argue as to how good he is, but I will always default to a "show me" argument. What others here or elsewhere say is immaterial since most of them make this team tick from an empty promises marketing approach perennially. As for the final statement you make in your last paragraph, I think it's great that the Bills beat the crap out of the teams that we are supposed. We won, but I wouldn't say "beat the crap out of ..." We barely won four or five of those games. We dusted Miami once which can be filed under "Big Deal." Most of those games against scrub teams could have gone either way though and we won most in the last minutes and kept them in games until then. We haven't beaten a decent team in years. The last time was NE to open up what, the 2003 season maybe. Otherwise we haven't beaten the Pats during the Brady era. The next best team that we've beaten is probably the Jags or Jets, neither of which were complete teams when we beat them and only marginal playoff teams. Either way, you can count on one hand the number of decent teams we've beaten since Donahoe arrived. Your comments on if the team doesn't have a winning record then the coaching staff will be fired is different from your take before. Otherwise I will "bet you a beer" that we aren't even .500 much less post a winning season. We're already 0-2 w/ the Pats. The O/U for the Bills this year is 7.5 right now in Vegas. So after the "homer element" is removed in Buffalo, I think that's about right for wagering purposes, and IMO that's a shoe-in U. For us to improve to the extent that you suggest, Edwards must improve massively. The play of the OL must improve massively. Lynch isn't going to deliver much more than he has. Oh sure, he may have 1,300 yards, but that extra 15 ypg ain't gonna do it. The rookie WRs have to make an impact more than Reed or Parrish have made and I don't see that happening as rookies. We'll have to run our O w/o a receiving FB since we don't have one and our TEs are all exceptionally marginal. If we can do it all on D, great, but that's also a real reach. Meanwhile as I said, few teams will come to play us like the Ravens did, or the Jets, Fins did. Yes, the schedule isn't tough, but we did struggle against teams such as this last year despite any notions to the contrary. I don't see us as having much of a chance @ Jax or v. SD and the two games v. NE are foregone concluded losses. So if we go .500 the rest of the way, a very logical conclusion, then we will be 6-10. As to Trent Edwards, we simply disagree. If you look at the play of some of the biggest 1st-roung busts of all time, you will notice little difference between his play and their play. You have to look at what he did most of the time, not just in one game. He had one good game all season, and that against the Dolphins. So I guess I just don't see why you and others say he either played well or improved. 8 of his 9 starts he sucked in and he rarely threw TDs or even moved the offense, in spite of having what you say is a solid OL and the 5th rated RB. I guess I just don't understand how we can take a slate of games played by him, look at them all individually, agree that they all pretty much sucked by QB standards, and yet then aggregate them and come to the completely opposite conclusion that added up they really represented a good season. Not only did Edwards not throw any TDs in 2/3 of his starts, but the team also rarely scored many points either. The offense once again returns essentially the same unit that couldn’t put up more than 17 points in 12 of 16 games, or even hit double-digit offensive scoring in 6 of 16 games, and one that put up only 9 total TDs, passing or rushing, in 9 games that Edwards started and with him under center. That’s one TD/game on average as an offensive unit with Edwards under center. Meanwhile, seven of those 9 TDs came in two games, one in which Edwards played miserably otherwise, meaning that in 7 of 9 starts with him under center, the Bills put up only two total offensive TDs or not even one every third game. Many of those games were against poor defensive opponents as well. If one discounts just the Miami game, then in eight games that Edwards started the team put up 5 total offensive TDs. Even in the Miami game, Edwards only had 165 on less than 50% raising questions as to how good he was even in that game. Two TD drives were 11 and 28 yards meaning that the D/STs did the real work there. The other two TDs were passes of 28 and 70 yards. What does that mean? To me it means that he was 9 of 21 otherwise for a pathetic 67 yards. So say what you will, but I call that far more of a lucky or just fortunate game than anything even approaching phenominal QB play. Given the evidence, there's nothing to counter that notion. Either way, is that what we're going to have to rely on this year for his "improvement" and his being good? I wouldn't want to have to lay much money on that occurring. We won't win any more games like that this year than last. So say what you will about Edwards, the facts don't support it. I mean what now, he looked nice in Bills colors and ran over the sideline more "poised" than any other QB that would traditionally been hanging his head in shame or something. I'm not getting it. Sure, many rookies play poorly, but so few ever amount to anything either. So the odds are against what you say big time. As for the O-Line. Again, there is a competing stat line. You say they sucked because they were 13th in attempt/sack ration. I have a stat that says they had a franchise low in sacks given up. Who's right? Well, I look at the performance of the lineman last year as compared to the rest of their careers and see that most of them had better years, on average, than ever before. The fact is, the line is above average, with Fowler as the weak link. And the fact is, I don't know where people get this more seven step drop thing from. Schonert has explicitly stated that he will be using a five step drop maximum this year, intending to get the ball out faster and using the middle of the field more frequently. And, I don't know if you've ever played QB in any organized fashion, but I have. Let me tell you, if the line was as bad as you think they were, the difference between the time it takes to do a 5 and a 7 step drop would be irrelevant. In a 5 step drop the QB is expected to make a read and deliver the ball in about 3.4 seconds. With a seven step drop it goes up to a whopping 3.8 seconds. The only thing that is true in your retort is that likely with more pass attempts will come more chances for pressure. However, I could argue just as you did that the Bills gave up a plethora of sacks to the Giants in that one game, and thus their actual total should have been something lower, because the Giants had the unstoppable pass rushing juggernaut that stopped Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. Much like TE played poorly because he had 4 TDs in the Dolphins game. That argument can cut both ways. The fact is that Peters is a Top-3 tackle in the NFL, and that he and Dockery were probably a Top-5 LT-LG combination last year. Walker played very well with the RG and C spots being the issue. So, please, stop saying how bad the O-Line was last year. They are at worst a slightly above average unit that will only be better after playing for a full year as a unit without having a sea change across the board. Again, that's one of those factors that you fail to take into account. O-Lines generally get better over time and with consistency. Based on that alone, and barring any contract issues with Peters, the line should only improve. First of all, I didn't say that we sucked b/c we were ranked 13th in Attempts/sack. What I said was that it sheds additional light on the debate statistically. Who's a safer driver, you, or the old bitty down the street who's never had an accident recently while you have say two tickets? Well, perhaps you put 30K miles on your vehicle annually while she only leaves the house twice a week to drive to Tops putting on only 4K annually. Your tickets were in a bogus spot at the bottom of a hill where you were going 41 in a 30 and you have an expired registration otherwise, hardly major safety issues. She's swerving all over the lanes and misses stop signs, but she doesn't have any tickets or accidents, so statistically she's the better driver acccording to the state and the insurance companies. What I'm saying is that you have to consider everything. You merely laid out one stat, amidst the glaring lack of the Bills either being on the field much (less than any other team) and having built an offense directly around trying to help Edwards avoid sacks. The team stated as much at the beginning of last season. So dismiss it as you may, you're arguing against them. Now, as to the rest of your argument, before you told me that we're going deep more often. Well that's what we did with JP in there. He wasn't a benefactor of a Fairchild system using 3/5 step drops frequently. So how will Edwards fare w/ more 5 and 7 step drops? We don't know although I have an inkling. You say we're going deep more often, but deep isn't usually from a 5-step drop, it's from a 7. So we need to marry the facts here. Either we're going deep more often, which means more 7-step drops, or we're not. I have no idea about your seconds thing, but half a second could easiliy translate to 5-10 yards which is huge for accuracy. If we're going to go deep, say 40+, then getting rid of the ball on 5-step drops regularly probably isn't going to cut it unless the team begins to develop some real chemistry in timing patterns, which I haven't seen to date other than w/ JP and Evans. Otherwise you're missing my point on sacks entirely. Sacks are only one component of the game for analysis. We can have 0 sacks, but if we end up DFL again in all offensive categories, who cares? Do they tally up the sacks at the end of the game and determine who won based on that? It's about scoring, and Edwards has shown absolutely no indication that he can score. He also couldn't in his Senior season against any team with a D that ranked among the top 75 or so, of what, like 110. I don't care if Edwards leaves the field after every game w/o a grass stain on his uniform, if he can't lead the team to move the ball then he isn't good. And again, even in the Miami and Giants games, where 6 of his 7 passing TDs in 9 starts came from, his games were poor otherwise and he "led" the team to a paltry 165 net passing yards in both games. Teams, QBs, simply don't get 6 TDs in two games averaging 165 net passing yards, and while it happens once or twice a season with help from the D/STs, you have to consider other things when assessing why that happened. Either way, you just can't count on it happening often. Edwards is a lot closer to busting than he is to even becoming an average starter in this league. The OL is what it is. You continue to praise it, but the fact remains, that with Lynch and with all the other positives that you suggest are there, we were DFL or a cut above it in just about everything offensively related. You don't improve to middle of the stack from taht without some serious improvement and we have little reason to hope for that this season. As to Schonert, if he is that good, then why haven't his QBs that he's coached done more. His production there has been below average. Also, you cannot look to who he played behind or coached under and draw conclusions. That's like saying that everyone that backed up Montana, Young, Elway, Marinio, Favre, Brady, or Manning should be very good too just on the merits of that. And why wasn't Fairchild better since he coached under a very good OC and offensive mind in Martz. He's also not coaching against Fairchild, he'll be tryig to outmaneuver opposing teams' DCs. I know you think that most of them aren't good, but how good is Schonert in relation in his first season in such a role? Pure crapsshoot IMO. I mean do you think that talent of those individuals has anything to do with it or what. That's silly. Schonert doesn't know what he's doing yet. He's never been in the role. I find it difficult to believe that he will be even an average OC this season. If not, then the improvement that you seek will not materialize. As to this team, it could probably run itself better without an OC than with Fairchild. Lastly, I never said that Hardy was going to be great. In fact, I expressly said I did NOT expect him to be great. What I do expect is that he will have something like 40-45 receptions and will take some of the pressure off of Lee. You kept saying that we had fewer redzone attempts than any other team (true) and that we scored fewer touchdowns in those attempts than any other team (also true). Yet, you failed to attribute that to anything other than the offense sucking and Trent sucking. I think it is a bit more complicated than that. More specifically, the lack of a legitimate threat in terms of throwing the ball in the redzone. Lee Evans was double teamed every time down there. See the Dallas game if you think that argument is flawed, particularly the Terrence Newman interception and return. Second, the TEs were terrible in the redzone and dropped a number of passes that should have been for TDs, with RR being the biggest case of butterfingers. Third, there was no one who could win the height battle on fade routes. Fourth, we rarely passed the ball in the redzone. Teams KNEW we were going to run if we got down there, and that is exactly what we did. We ran too many times and we got dominated. When a team knows what you are going to do, you can have as many blockers as you want, that D is going to snuff out the play. That's why we had so little success in the Redzone. We had a bad script drawn up by what turned out to be a bad OC from day one. Sorry, but I don't think that Trent had much to do with the fact that the team didn't throw much in the redzone or that we had an offense built on RUN-RUN-THEN WHEN YOU'RE DESPERATE ON 3rd and 9 THROW. You may not agree, but that's the way I'm calling it. We'll see, and he may very well catch 40+ balls. But you think that alone will push us from 32nd to what? 10th? Not gonna happen. We can add 5 TDs to that, the leading TD total for rookie WRs last year, and it won't make much of a difference all other things unchanged. In other words, Hardy will have to significantly outproduce Reed in yardage in order to make that much of a difference. 40-50 grabs ain't gonna do it there. This anaysis is also a little more complex as it's unlikely that the only factor in "what was wrong with the passing game" was the "lack of WRs to balance out Evans." To assume that Edwards had nothing to do with it is not smart. I also think you don't understand just how bad we were offensively relative to the rest of the league. If we doubled our offensive production we would be slightly above average. And we're not going to double it. I also don't think that "Trent threw much in the red zone" because he was unreliable. The team tried to do what it could to score, but failed. And by the way, you talk about how Edwards' play was hindered by the lack of WRs, of his 7 TD passes, 6 came with 2 or fewer WRs on the field. He only threw 1 with 3 WRs and none with 4. I don't think that says much for our OL at all. I don't expect Hardy to be great, just average with enough catches and enough of a threat in the endzone to make teams cheat off of Lee. And by the way, I don't know what you are saying about Hardy not being able to stretch Ds or run routes. Perhaps you should look at some of his game film from Indiana and from the OTAs here. He runs with 4.48 speed and runs very good routes over the middle. He's also one of the best leapers on fade routes I have seen, including Randy Moss. That's why I think he will help the team. And with the FB situation, I don't know that Viti will be any good, but from what I saw of his college game film, he is a beast, and will be a strong addition to the run game. I don't know why but I do think that the Bills will be better this year. You may not, but hey, it's all speculation at this point. You choose to think there is no reason for hope. I tend to think there is. Only Decemeber and January will bring the answer. If you're right, then we're all in for a long season and another shi--y outcome. If I'm right, we might be in the playoffs. Let me ask you a question, which result would you rather have? Just repeating what I've read. I'm no scout, but I can process information with the best of them. I posted what Draft Countdown had to say. NFL.com says this; Not a sharp route runner, as he does take some soft angle cuts...Best on controlled or intermediate routes, as he lacks the timed speed to gobble up the cushion and get behind the speedy cornerbacks on deep routes (would be more effective if he shortened his stride coming out of his cuts)...Has had concentration problems, resulting in a fair share of dropped balls So I don't know where you are coming up with the notion that he can "stretch a D" as most disagree with you. The dropped balls thing reared its head in OTAs too. As to his play in college, did he light up any great defenses, or did all of this that you saw occur against lower half defensive competition? From what I can tell he didn't have any big games at all against any noteworthy defense. He had no good games against any team ranked among the top 35 in pass defense. Either way, that's really not that much of a factor as the NFL is completely different and exponentially more difficult. Some players play up and some play down. We won't know more until the season. But you can't look at what he did against Ball St., Northwestern, and Indiana St. in college and extrapolate to the pros. Ditto for Edwards who had a few good games against some of the worst competition in college in his Sr. season, but stunk the joint up against any average or better team. And spare me the "he didn't have any tools" nonsense. He wasn't good plain and simple. And again, with this statement; I don't know why but I do think that the Bills will be better this year. You may not, but hey, it's all speculation at this point. You choose to think there is no reason for hope. you miss my point completely. Of course the Bills will be better. Statistically it's all but impossible that we cannot. You said it correctly, how can our O possibly get worse? What, scoring only 10 ppg. But it's going to take more than simple "improvement" to end up where you say and hope. If they can't improve in spades by midseason then Jauron should be let go then, not even at the end of the season and so should Schonert! The question is by how much improvement. I say it will be marginally because NFL players, DCs, and DBs are a little smarter and more experienced than to let a simple rookie WR(s) beat them to the extent that any such difference will propel us to the playoffs. I don't think you realize how poor our offense was last season. I think you're looking well beyond the piece parts and forecasting things that have no basis. Once again, let's assume that Hardy catches 6 TDs, more than any rookie WR last season, then unless we get another dozen from elsewhere, and against teams against which we haven't even been able to log a sincle offensive TD, then I just don't see it happening. The hill is a lot higher and steeper than you realize my friend. If you're right, then we're all in for a long season and another shi--y outcome. If I'm right, we might be in the playoffs. Let me ask you a question, which result would you rather have? Come on, obviously I'd rather see us go 12-4 and be able to dominate teams like we did during the Kelly/Polian era. But what I think makes absolutely no difference, which I'm not sure that many people understand as if we can wish or hope our way to success. What you and they think makes no difference either. This isn't like Monsters, Inc. where "hopes" provide energy for the team on the field. It doesn't matter if we sell the place out for season tickets either. What matters is whether Edwards can play to move the offense, get protection from the line, whether Schonert will be sharper than his counterparts, how much Jauron's influence since he's not a good coach or definitely an unproven one tops impacts this team, how much the rookie WRs step up and by when, and how the D comes together and whether Spencer Johnson is just another backup type that will rotate in leaving us hungry for DT play, whether Stroud has fully recovered and becomes the force he once was, what Poz brings, how good McKelvin plays initially, etc. To assume that every one of those factors comes together favorably is unwise. Also, to assume that just because a player is in his second season he will be better is also unwise. McGahee wasn't better in his second season here. We haven't had even average QB play in what, close to a decade now. Meanwhile, teams, especially those in our division, have some familiarity with Edwards now and know what to expect and therefore what to plan for, at least inasmuch as his capabilities go regardless of how Schonert tries to use them. But we're also starting at the bottom and it's extremely unusual for teams as pathetically bad as we were last year to leapfrog 20 teams in productivity to the extent that we make the playoffs or even post a winning record. And allow me to ask, would you rather have a team that ends up with a winning record but primarily because our schedule was chock full of easy teams? Or would you rather be a .500 team or even maybe a 7-9 team again, but one that proved that it can hang with the "big boys?" We went through that exercise in 2005 when everyone thought we were much better than we were because we beat a bunch of sorry teams under remarkably sorry circumstances. Yet everyone overreated then. I just want to see solid football being played in Buffalo again. I'd rather have that and take our chances on ease of schedule than to see us slide into a winning season or playoffs only due to extremely fortuitous circumstances that have no basis for future results. But your implication that I'd rather see us "have another long season with another shi--y outcome" is false. I'd rather address the reasons why we suck every year and correct them. But that clearly does not appear to be happening now, does it. As to the offense, I find it difficult to believe that Hardy is going to make that much of a difference and here's why; We will supposedly be running a lot more 2 RB sets with a FB for blocking for Lynch. That's what the team and Schonert say, so we should believe them. They also say that they plan on using the TE more although they have been saying that for years and never do. Could be Jauron too. Either way, we really don't have the type of TE that's going to make much of a difference there, and we will need one that blocks according to Schonert's "back to basics" (my term) strategy for the offense. He will need a blocking TE, not a light, flimsly receiving one. Royal is not great at anything but mediocre in everything. Schouman we don't know. Oft injured and unproven there. He was an injury concern leaving school and guess what, got hurt again. We know he's not a good blocker though, so his value is minimal in this scheme as anything besides a role player. So I wouldn't plunk down too much money that he even makes it past midseason again. He's clearly got major injury issues and if he were cut prior to the season it shouldn't surprise you. So we will have two WRs lining up frequently, and if it's Evans and Hardy, I'm just not seeing it unless Lynch absolutely lights things up, but he was hindered from that last year becaues our line just isn't that good and not nearly as good as you think. Barnes is a decent although not exceptional blocker by any stretch, and teams will be stacking the line defending our run making things more difficult for our OL there. Since Hardy doesn't stretch the field, Evans is still the only player taking anyone deep. I don't think Edwards will have the time to get it to Evans much more than he or Losman ever have behind this line. That's my take. Meanwhile I haven't heard any analsysis from you about defensive players stacking the box since we'll be using more 2 WR sets. I've only heard how Hardy will stretch the field which your on an island over. I expect a similar season from Lynch plus maybe another few TDs, and a miserable year from Edwards as he loses just as much from poor pass protection on deeper pass attempts as he gains from having Hardy as an additional big WR. Based on what I know and have seen about rookie WRs, I expect Hardy's strengths to be outmatched in his rookie season easily. He reminds me of Matt Jones when Jax drafted him. Very similar in skillsets. And Jones is huge and by all counts should have been a monster and done much more than he has, and I distinctly remember people here talking about how we should get him and how he would do what they're all expecting Hardy to do now. Anyway, he's been putting up what you say Hardy will, or hope for, and until last season when they finally put Garrard in there, a QB much better than Edwards on a variety of fronts, the Jags offense wasn't great and they had a better running game than we have and a better OL. Jones was drafted and rated higher than Hardy. Either way, it sounds as if the sum total of it all depends entirely upon improvement of the pieces in place and Hardy. I will say not to underrated Johnson as in two or three seasons Hardy may be his backup. He's a much more versatile player and if we do improve by those amounts as you hope for, then I will say not that it's because Johnson came on and in no small way, along with Edwards. Johnson also put up some big games against top Ds at Kentucky.

Thanks, and you could be right about Hardy I suppose as players don't always match their profiles coming into the league. But from most sources I read something similar to what's on DraftCountdown; Strengths: Phenomenal size with a huge frame and long arms...A terrific natural athlete...Has big, reliable hands and can snatch the ball away from his body...A fantastic leaper with excellent ball skills...Knows how to use his body to shield defenders...Works well in traffic...Can do some damage after the catch...Has pretty good speed for a guy his size...A terror in the redzone...Was real productive...Still has some upside. Weaknesses: Isn't very quick or explosive and lacks a burst...May have trouble separating from pro corners...Has some character concerns...Will have to get stronger...Not much of a vertical or deep threat...Just a marginal blocker...Not a great route runner...Is not real physical or aggressive and may lack a football player's mentality...Still raw and will need to be developed...Inconsistent..Is more athlete than football player. Sounds like his real value is in the shorter game in traffic where it's not real physical. Kind of a "nichy" WR. I wasn't happy or unhappy when we drafted him, but IMO Steve Johnson has a much better shot at becoming a solid all-around everyday type of WR. I'm excited to see what both bring, but knowing the slow rates at which WRs develop somewhat cautious about expecting too much this season.

Fairchild did suck, but who is considering how much of that was also aided by a lack of talent. We don't know. Find out more this season.

You make some interesting statements, but particularly given your statements about my "facially neutral and inherently pessimistic questions," along with your challenging my notion of what some statistics that I put out there mean, allow me to parry your thrust and make a jab of my own. I've deleted the specifically unaddressed portions of your post. First of all let me say that if you're going to try to come across as someone that knows something, then it might be a good idea to get your facts straight first. I will go down your list in order. You think that the odds of Schonert succeeding are very good. Bully for you. That and two bucks will get us all a cup of coffee. I'm just guessing here that you thought the same about Fairchild when we got him and even Jauron and bought into all the hype. Either way, your "thinking" doesn't mean squat. If we go 5-11, then we may very well get a new head coach. I don't know of too many fans that would still be buying into Jauron's coaching ability after only one winning season amidst mostly horrible ones in nearly a decade of coaching. Except for you of course. My statistics are not "wrong." You may not like them, but you cannot just take facts and dismiss them as if you're waving your sceptor and declaring that you, as king, are making facts null and void. Buffalo had the fifth highest rated Running Back in the NFL with ML having an 1100+ yard season. Fred Jackson didn't do to badly either for a backup. This is one of the better areas on the team and I do expect that it will improve this year. Also, we DO NOT have the same fullback as last year. Schonert EXPLICITLY stated that he WILL NOT USE THE H-Back this year. Buffalo will likely use either Darian Barnes, who is primarily a run blocker, or rookie Mike Viti at the FB position, who is a very good run blocker (some scouts had him rated higher than even Owen Schmidt) and also has decent hands out of the back field. Further, the O-Line about which you have been so quick to criticize, gave up the fewest sacks in franchise history last year, and was in the top seven in the league in that category. Further, with the addition of two tall and athletic wide receivers and a commitment to using a higher yield pass offense along with a faster tempo, should help the O get going next year. And yet, with that "fifth highest rated RB in the NFL," we couldn't score more offensive points than any other team in the league, and still, you continue to continue on about how good Edwards is. Most teams with the "5th Best RB in the NFL", which is your implication, no matter who their QB is, wouldn't score fewer offense TDs than all 31 other teams. Barnes is a so-so FB. If he were more than we'd have all known him before he came to Buffalo. He's also no threat whatsoever from the backfield which will limit Edwards in that way. You then talk about the OL and rave about the sacks, or lack thereof that we gave up. So we have the 5th best RB, Edwards is really good, so is our OL, and yet, we couldn't even rank 31st in offensive TDs scored even though we should have better teams than most other NFL teams offensively speaking, especially teams like the Raiders, Niners, Chiefs, Rams, Falcons and a bunch of others even that don't have anything close to what we have according to you if you do a similar analysis for them. As to Viti, just like Youboty, McCargo, and a whole bunch of other draftees, you have no idea what he will bring. And if we're not using an H-Back, what good is Schouman? He's no true FB and if you think he can be a decent TE, good luck with that. As to the sacks, you dare have the gumption to tell me that my stats are wrong and then skew such things in your favor? Yes, we may have given up the fewest sacks in team history last year, but we finished 13th in the league in attempts/sack. And where's your analysis of how many pass plays were three or five-step drops to help him avoid sacks? Did it help the team score? Obviously not. What if Fairchild had put him back there on 7-step drops like they did Losman the year before? Do you think he would have been sacked more often? How much more often? And oh, guess what, you tell us now that they're going to open up the passing game with deeper throws, right? So what are they going to do, three or five step drop it and heave the ball downfield for 50 yards while the receiver is only 25 yards downfield? And you think? The team did everything within its power last year to see to it that Edwards would not get sacked and yet, our offense sucked. You just can't ask questions from the angle that suggest that team can make it any easier for him and still be fair to the integrity of the argument, you can't. I do think that the O will score more points. With LE being the focus of the passing game last year, it was easy for teams to shut us down. We had no legitimate passing targets in the redzone and it was easy for teams to then expect for us to run. I think that Hardy, who is very quick for a guy who is 6'6" tall, will cause serious mismatches on D. He doesn't have to catch 70 passes next year to be effective. He needs to catch 45 or 50. His asset to the team is in the red zone. With he and Steve Johnson, who is apparently very good and may get some time this year based on his camp performance, provide much needed height in the red zone. This allows Evans and Reed to more effectively run routes and shed CBs. I think TE will be better this year after having a year to learn the system and get familiar with the offense. Gee, really! You honestly think that the team will score more offensive points than it did last year? You mean more than the pathetic and league worst 13.25 PPG that we put up last year? Is there anyone out there that doesn't think that will happen even if only by accident? You're really stepping out there. You talk about Hardy, but since when do rookie WRs make such a big impact? Also, you talk about how he will help us in the red zone, but ignore the fact that we made fewer trips to the red zone than any team but the Niners, who still scored more TDs in the red zone by two in five less trips in there. So how does Hardy even help us get there? Everyone knows he's not going to stretch the field and that he isn't a solid route runner or anything much beyond a big body with hands. Just suppose that his hands and size simply aren't enough in the NFL, a perfectly valid supposition although another one that you will dismiss based on "your thinking." Your statements on the TE play are absurd as the Bills haven't done anything with their TEs in years and they don't even have any talent there. If nothing had ACTUALLY changed in the offseason, I would tend to agree that we would be in trouble, but things did change. We got a new OC who actually sounds like he might know what he is doing. Jauron has said that he will not allow such a conservative offense and that they have to open it up more. I believe they will do that. Also, the D is much improved and will keep us close in every game. We have a much more favorable schedule. We had the most difficult schedule last year in the NFL. This year we are in the middle tier. That should look favorably in the W column. I do think that Buffalo could win 9, 10, possibly 11 games this year. If the D is as good as I think they will be, and the O can score seven more points a game, that will be enough to win ten games. First of all, we didn't "have the most difficult schedule last year." It was 18th, but I understand that you will file that under "wrong stats." At the beginning of the season, and based on '06 standings and rankings it was supposed to be tough. But the Fins and Jets were both far worse than expected, so was Denver, so was Baltimore, so was Cincy, so was Pittsburgh, and so was Philly. And the only reason we were 18th is because we played the Pats twice who were 32-0 skewing the rest. So really it was pretty much a very easy schedule after two games with the Pats. And talk about teams that can't get any worse, how about the Fins and Jets in our division? Or can they get worse while we can't in your mind now too. And you lecture me on wrong stats. Hardly anything did change in the offseason regarding the offense. Other than for us swapping out an H-Back spot for a FB, although we really don't have any significant known FB talent, 10 of 11 starting spots otherwise on opening day will be the same. Sure, we have Schonert, but he's never been an OC. His track record with QB coaching isn't even that good. It's not even average. So why all of a sudden is he gonna be good at this. He may be, but just like all the other moves this team makes, it's a shot in the dark, nothing more. And yeah, real novel to suggest using a FB. Boy, I've never heard of that before. Or throwing longer when last year a "deep throw" meant a pass on the fly of over 12 yards. Yeah, only someone having been in the NFL for 15 years floundering around in the same coaching role on a number of different teams being chased around by failure after failure and who's making millions can figure that out. The D should be improved although there too, it can't really get much worse. So that's not exacly some sort of monster taking a career chance in predicting something like that. But it will have to get a whole lot better if the O doesn't jump from around last to near top 10. I don't see that happening from where we were. Stroud is the only impact player we signed on D besides rookies. Your "thinking" that we can win 9. 10, or 11 games, particularly given how you slammed me, is meaningless. Lastly, your TD argument about TE is BS. Trent had seven TD passes in ten games. I know that three of them were in one games, however, that is really a bad argument for two reasons. First, that assumes that NOTHING changes in the way he does things as a signal caller, that he makes NO improvement at all as a QB and that the offense is exactly the same as it was last year. All of those things are clearly not going to happen. Sorry that Loss-man isn't the QB anymore, but you need to get over it. Thus, while you "questions" were not necessarily negative, it was the way you presented them that suggested you are one of those Negative Nancy kind of fans who loves nothing more than to complain in their sarcastic way and just generally makes the rest of the hopeful people feel like sh-t. Your questions are appreciated, your underlying pessimism and disdain could be done without. First of all, once again, get your facts straight. Edwards had 7 TDs and 4 of them were in the Miami game. I mean can you think of a worse defense in Miami team history than Miami's D last year? 2 more were against the Giants although he played miserably otherwise. 9 of 26 for 161 yards, threw for 3 INTs, got sacked three times in those 26 attempts and had a rating of 42.8. You must think that's good. Otherwise in seven other starts he had one passing TD with all of this greatness that you say surrounds him. Even Heath Shuler wouldn't have played so poorly is what I'm thinking. Yes, he may improve, but that's no given. There will also be a season's worth of film on him for our opponents and he played poorly down the final stretch too. So that won't assist him. As to Losman, I'm not losing any sleep over "Losman not being our QB anymore" and there's nothing for me to "get over" per your implication. Sorry. What Losman is or isn't has nothing to do with Edwards. But I will be curious to see how good Edwards is at avoiding sacks when he's on 7-step drops more often this season. As to your challenging of my questions, we could say the same for you. All you do is make excuses and openly dismiss facts that don't fit your desires. What I appreciate is a good discussion and you seem to come across as insisting that anyone that doesn't clearly see that this team is poised to post a winning season, likely make the playoffs, and jump up 20 spots in most offensive and defensive indicators, which will be necessary if we are to have that kind of season, all while ignoring everything that wasn't right about this team in the past including last season, and all predicated on Edwards in his second season, rookie WRs, an offensive coordinator that is in OJT status and one that hasn't even been able to hold down a job in the NFL each year are going to make all the difference. I'm just not seeing it there chief! We weren't good last year and only managed to beat the worst teams in the league, four wins of which were against the Fins and Jets and I wouldn't wager a beer that we do that again. If you're seeing "negativity" in simply asking questions, then it could be you. They're just questions. Meanwhile, every season here for years everyone just like you posts their opinions while ignoring the facts and tells us all how novice personnel and coaches are finally going to make all the difference and how the rookies are all going to become superstars, and yet it never happens. And here's the thing, at the end of the season all you'll do is make more excuses, defend more people brought into this organization that have little or no experience at all in their respective roles, and suggest that because we sucked before that it can't possibly get any worse. Bully for you if you were right. We'll see for this season, but I don't see a lot of people that ranted and raved about Marv, and Fairchild, and Youboty, and Losman's being the next Favre, and McCargo, and Parrish, and McGahee, and Preston, etc. standing up and saying, man, was I about as wrong as I could have been. Instead, all you do is stand up and criticize anyone that is concerned about this team and who actually look beyond us beating a bunch of crap teams for the sum total of 7 wins and make excuses for everything that goes wrong under assumptions that most of the returning parts of the team are and were fine except for that parts that left. It gets a little old.

That's a really good point. Everyone knows that Jauron has nothing on O. So it hopefully will all come down to TC leaving the chips to fall as they may.

Most of them aren't even with the team anymore.

Edwards is a better short passer than Losman is. By how much is debatable. But one thing that most people ignore when talking about this is the fact that when Losman was in there a lot of plays were 7-step drops and he just didn't have the time. Last season they changed all of that for Edwards to 3 and 5 step drops. Naturally it reduced sacks, which wrongfully Edwards gets credit for. But the offense didn't get more productive. It actually got less productive. The reason why Losman took all those sacks was not because in Rob Johnson-esque fashion he just sat back there and waited, and waited, and waited, and never got rid of the ball, but because our OL sucked at pass blocking. Well, it's the same line. And since they're planning on putting more 7-step drops in there for Edwards, there is no reason to suspect that he's not gonna get sacked a whole lot more this year. The team, falsely, believes that Edwards for some reason is just less prone to getting sacked when Losman is the more mobile QB even. They will figure it out. Either way, if Edwards doesn't start getting more protection, it's gonna be just as ugly as in the past on plays where he has to rely on a pocket. Think about it too, which of our lineman regularly keep defenders out of the backfield? Clearly not Walker, Butler, Fowler, and even Dockery struggled for a G last year.

Some very fair assessments.

Does Schonert suck at OC? The correct answer is that we don't know. None of us does. What are the odds though that an OC that is a first time OC is a good one? And do we have a new head coach this year? I would imagine that if they had listened to most fans they would be further along than they are now.

Do you see a potential conflict of interests at all between Jauron's need to win each and every game regardless of the longterm cost to the team and what you just said?

Aside from not answering the question, I haven't been negative at all, have I. I'm just asking questions as I can see it. Some pretty thin skin here to react that way to questions. And what does it say when you offer no evidence other than "you say so?" Should we all bow to your personal wealth of information in spite of your lack of ability to substantiate any of it? It's one thing for a QB to put up some numbers, play consistently, and go through typical growing pains, but even if Edwards doubles his output on a game by game basis, it would still leave 12 games with no TDs. Otherwise I don't believe I've bashed him unless simply referring to his play can be considered bashing him. I mean if I tell you that Lee Evans didn't catch 1,000 yards worth of passes or hit 10 TDs, am I being negative?

Why don't you itemize for us with statistics, both for Edwards and the offense, and games that Edwards started, which games you thought that both he and the offense played well in and why?

That's a very fair assessment, but even the defense has risks with it. I mean if Mitchell plays like he did in KC that's not going to be good. Who knows with Johnson. Stroud should be fine, but what if his post-surgery and injury issues arise again? Our defense wasn't good either last year.

No, but he wasn't good last year. If he had been half way decent, then there might be hope that he turns into an average QB this season. He had one good game, against the Dolphins. After that in eight other starts he had only 3 TDs and the offense in general had only one or two more total. That doesn't even come close to mediocre much less anything to build one's hopes on. I would say at least.