SectionC3

My guess is 5x your current STH cost. Tickets will be a little less than double on an annual basis.

Get ready for 6k and 2300-ish.

Maybe we swap him out for Morrow based on the comp pick thing mentioned upthread.

There's a reason mercantilism was left in the 1890s. The whole thing is comical. The guy who, historically, has never given an eff about anyone but himself is now the protector and savior of the working class? Give me a break. But that's immaterial. What is material is that the people around him frequently characterize him as averse to details and ill-prepared. So now America bet on an outdated economic approach that, essentially, only this ill-prepared buffoon thinks is a good idea. I believe in America, and I root for America, so I genuinely hope this works. I just don't see it, however, and I think that (a) he is going to go through with it, based on Musk's comments about near-term pain, and (b) there are going to be a lot of people who learn the hard way about tariffs and retaliatory tariffs very soon.

I think you nailed it. Isn't Week 10 relevant to that analysis? And didn't we do the same thing (maybe with Andre Holmes?) a few years ago?

The master negotiator was foiled by RINOs. Unbelievable. Throw up the tariffs and let’s see what happens.

Mercantilism is, essentially, export more than is imported. MAGA doesn’t realize we rely on cheap foreign labor. Domesticate that for disposable junk and prices skyrocket. Not to mention that our tariffs will be met with retaliatory tariffs. The whole thing is moronic. Capitalism is going to keep prices sticky. These guys are Bernie Bro socialists with Trump induced hate. But they call themselves conservative.

Lots of command economy stuff in here. Price controls. He’s had since 2015 to do a health care plan. Case by case basis on the illegals? Either there aren’t that many or this is going to take huge sums of money and time to accomplish. Then, qualification and stifling of free speech. Sounds like commie to me. Unbelievable.

The super rich bought trump. It’s what you don’t get. These tariffs and flat tax nonsense are terrible for lower classes. You got played. It’s sad. Mercantilism. And a MAGA welfare state. They don’t even see it coming.

Of course. But he’s a roster player out late. Which other roster players were also there?

He had unified government. And also, he’s an amazing negotiator, right?

The wall and health care did not get done the last time trump had unified government. You weren’t alive for Grover Cleveland. This is unique and it’s a fair point. Sumitomo shut down too. Not gonna play the tariff game.

Big money wins again, man. Stocks are flying right now. Most of MAGA isn't part of the investor class. And stocks are smoking because of the looming tax cuts--not the tips and social security and crumbs that MAGA's going to get, but the big stuff that's going to go to the top earners and corporations. MAGA's hope is that it eventually trickles down from the rich folks to them. That, as far as I know, has never been the case in the history of this country. Maybe it changes. But I doubt it. And then, to top it off, these "conservatives" that comprise MAGA really want a welfare state. (There was a nice piece on this in, I believe, the Economist today.). Insulin price controls. Still want Medicaid and Medicare (in spite of "Stop Socialism."). A wide swath of MAGA voters rely on government subsidies and handouts, like the M&M, as well as social security and SNAP. Then, we're trending toward a mercantilist system with this tariff nonsense (welcome back to the 1850s, I guess). Add it all up and maybe there will be more manufacturing jobs here, but inflation will follow the tariffs, goods will cost more, and if you're not in the investor class it's going to be extremely difficult to break out of that labor group without the benefit of union assistance (which, of course, MAGA is against). Bottom line - the rich and educated, who invest in securities, just scored huge here. $64B for the ten richest people in the world, yesterday. Working folks think they're going to get some crumbs, but the end game for them is brutal if these economic policies carry the day. So, personally, my contempt for the MAGA social agenda aside, I did great in the last few days. I'll probably do great with the tax cuts, but the inability to concomitantly cut social programs that MAGA relies upon is going to lead to massive national debt. Working stiffs (of which I was one)? Got played.

Occasionally there's really good ideas here, and this is food for thought. He is going to be a lame duck, and it's going to be hard for him to govern if he loses the sway over his followers. What if, for example, there's a recession in the next 12 to 18 months? Gonna be tough to hold authority. By contrast, he's got tons of capital right now, which is why the first 100 days is so important to his agenda. In another thread, the question was posed of the PPP cabal as to what they'd like Trump to prioritize when he takes office. Nobody really had a good answer. The bet here is that the establishment with which he works and which he's too lazy or incapable of rooting out is going to push the tax cuts. He's going to backstop that with the tariffs. (Which is a toxic stew for the economy, but sort of besides the point here.). Beyond that, I question whether there's a plan.

Believe it or not I'm actually sad for you. I wish it was different. I feel badly that people are hanging on by their fingernails. I look at the market the last couple of days, though, and it hit me that you got duped.

Like I said, truth hurts. I'm not sweating culture issues (live and let live), and I didn't need to vote for MAGA because I'm hanging on by my fingernails. We'll see if your way works. I just hope you follow through on everything - cut the Medicaid, cut the Medicare, and see what trickle down does for you. Have at it.

Listen man, I come from a working class family and worked harder than most of you could conceive of on my way up. I did all of the stuff that nobody else wants to do. I'm not a "lefty" or a commie or a pedophile or anything that you guys like to call me. You caught the car with this one, and I'm just telling you that MAGA's economic agenda is a load of BS that's going to help the rich folks, cement an educational divide, and ultimately hurt the people who voted for it. I don't want any of that, but if that's what you want, you got it. I take no delight in it, but if you guys are sincere and serious about Stopping Socialism and all of the cuts you want to make to pay for these dumb ideas (tariffs and this flat tax stupidity, for instance), have at it. It's hard to have rage with the portfolio up huge the last few days. It's great for me, but I'm highly skeptical it's going to benefit most of the people who read this. I think we can agree that big money always wins in this country. Bezos pulled the WaPo endorsement because he smelled this coming. What's the new Amazon play as of today? Low cost essentials. Dollar store type of stuff. They're reaching into lower income demos, for sure, but it tells me they don't expect things to get markedly better for "middle" middle class and lower middle class America. You can keep on gloating, etc., and that's fine. You won the culture wars. Just take the economic piece for what it's worth.

The last words ring true. That's the economic point I'm making today. MAGA is the economic dog that caught the car, and this is not going to end well for most of its voters. I had some time to digest, and I'm sort of thrilled with the result. I hate much of the MAGA social agenda. The MAGA economic agenda is terrible for the middle class, and for the country as a whole (tariffs, flat tax, enormous debt are all stupid ideas). But I'm doing well personally, so the hell with it. Let's Stop Socialism and make the cuts to Medicaid and Medicare and see what happens.

Like I said, you got nothing. Just like the rest of them. So you're a Steve Forbes and trickle down guy with the flat tax? Terry Pegula (for example) pays the same tax rate as you. I'm all for it, for what it's worth, because it's good for me. But is it good for MAGA?

There is some truth to this. He is not a conservative by any measure, except when it comes to the abortion issue. The economic plan is sort of an old school Republican thing from the 80s, but he's also trying to implement tax cuts that are extremely broad and, typical of Republicans, tend to give the upper and investor classes a lot and the middle and lower classes only a little. The problem he's going to run into is that he won't cut spending. The gamble is huge economic growth and trickle down, but historically those things either don't work or don't cover the tax cuts. So some tough choices will have to be made relative to cuts, which will inevitably impact services on which MAGA voters rely. It's sort of hilarious that Republicans (the party of Dick Cheney and George W. Bush) are casting Democrats as the pro-war or non anti-war party. Comical, actually, since both Iraq wars were products of a Republican administration. There's a difference between supporting NATO (peace through strength)/supplying military aid to Ukraine/Israel and wandering into a pointless second Iraq war. Fixing foods isn't going to fix healthcare, much as the anti-vax movement isn't going to make people healthier. A lot of this stuff is a reflection of frustration and anger with the state of society, as you said, over the past 25 years. I get it - especially and including the senseless war issue and the economic struggles. I disagree strongly with the economic approach (tariffs and flat taxes are idiotic ideas if you're in the middle class) and the bluster (Stop Socialism and Stop the Steal are crocks if I've ever heard them), and unfortunately I think MAGA is in for a lot more of the same on the economic pain side of things. This--Trump--is not the guy or the plan to fix what ails them, and I see this election as more voting people out (Biden/Harris) who have presided over a difficult period than voting someone else in. (I'll add that the basic metrics of the economy are actually really, really good right now, and that I think a lot of the frustrations relative to sticky prices are due to the fact that Americans lack fiscal discipline and are too stretched out to absorb so much as a flat tire, let alone any kind of elasticity in pricing.). Maybe--and this is where I fall--we can have a return to normalcy where people can stop calling me a pedophile and a communist and evil as a moderate, union Democrat, I'll stop making fun of MAGA for being morons who aren't actually racists but who support things that, if you're brown, kind of look like they're racist, we can stop the forever wars, and we can have an economic agenda (think Bernie Sanders, who is actually popular with MAGA) that is not insular (tariffs), that targets tax cuts to the middle class, that restores early Reagan-era top marginal tax rates, and that helps grow education, and tech, and green, and small business for the next generation. We can also reduce, but not eliminate, some foreign aid. Put all that together and you frankly get a little bit of MAGA and a lot more of Democrat, and all of a sudden you're in business. It's an agenda that I frankly think most people would agree with.

That's capitalism for you! There's plenty of other jobs for her out there. Let's get to work on cutting Medicare and Medicaid next. And welfare. Enough of that. Get to work, MAGA.

Nothing hysterical about it. And nobody's worried about anything falling apart. I just want you and MAGA to do what you said you're going to do. You won the culture wars. Good for you. Now let's follow through on the economic piece of your agenda, too, which happens to be against your self interest. I think we can all agree that socialism should be stopped. So what are we cutting first?? You got nothing. You voted against something, but now you can't specifically say what you're for. Let's stop socialism and start cutting benefits. Or are we doing tariffs first. Or is it juicing the stock market (MAGA is not the investor class) by cutting taxes and running up the national debt. Which one comes first?

Nah. I’m a pretty happy guy. Especially because I’m having another huge day in the market. You voted against altruism. Go ask Elon for handout. But not until after we talk about cutting Medicare and Medicaid. Stop socialism, remember? That’s what you voted for. So let’s do it! While nothing meaningful changes for him. That’s the sad part. None of the MAGA on here can respond to anything contrary to their position in the merits. They got played, and it hurts to hear it.

Actually I feel myself getting richer and better by the minute. You, by contrast, have nothing to say on the merits, because you know I’m right. You got played. There’s a reason why the super rich folks are for trump. (The top ten made $64 billion yesterday.) Let’s see now whether it trickles done to you before all of the services you need get cut!

Truth, bro. You can insult, but you can't respond on the merits. Because the truth hurts and you know I'm right. Your obsession with guns and brown people got you played. And the people you hate are going to profit. Thank you, again!