GG

This question came up when analysts were discussing the statistics from Italy, and someone suggested that CV-related deaths there could have been overstated by as much as 80%, because of other contributing factors. One way to ascertain the CV impact is to compare it to a normalized baseline, which would be the death rate in prior years

No, but would be the ultimate power play by Cuomo over Big Bird.

NYS does not need a lock down! Only NYC

And just like that, Johns Hopkins changed the CV tracker to eliminate China from the graph and also doesn't show the # recovered BTW, what the health agencies aren't doing clearly is plotting normal state death statistics vs CV

I just read his first piece, and it's hot garbage in retrospect, yet he crows that he got 40 millions hits. Only because he's perpetuating the falsehoods that is now gospel, but will likely look foolish when this is said and done. It's actually good to read his second piece after the first, because you realize that he doesn't address his wrong prognostications at all and continues with the alarmist tone. South Korea exponential growth? Mmm, never mind. According to him it's because they went through SARS, and knew what to do. Which is what ....? Washington State follow up? Nope, not a peep. Diamond Princess? Clearly a statistical anomaly. But Italy isn't. He lumped the Swiss as one of the countries who were late in responding, without noting that the country has negligible deaths from CV. Which brings me to the biggest problem of painting this virus with as broad brush as possible. As we're about to finish the third month in a pandemic, clear patterns are emerging despite what people like Puevo want you to believe, and that pattern is much closer to Leavitt's & Ginn's theories. Culture, demographics and climate all play a major role in the spread, and that's why you are seeing an explosion in Lombardy & NYC (Australia is not a problem btw). Other areas of the Italy are faring much better, and don't get me started on NYS north of Orange County compared to the NY metro area. Even the NY's first major outbreak in New Rochelle appears to be abating, similarly to what happened in Washington. But that's not NYC because people are on top of one another, and they're stupid. I witnessed what Cuomo was talking about first hand yesterday. All along the West Side, it was as if there's no danger lurking. I drove to work to pick up some things for my mandatory six week work from home assignment, and I've never seen the roads so empty. But when I got into NYC, there were still a lot of people out and walking very close together. No cars, so I got a spot right next to my office. Never, ever happens in real life. Quick five minute trip to the office, waive the id card, turnstyle opens, elevator automatically summoned to my floor. Wash hands when I get to my floor. Pick up my stuff, only hit one elevator button, Purell on my hands when I hit ground floor. Get to my car and there are two morons sharing a conversation & a smoke next to my car. I walk around the other side to drop the gear in the trunk, and they don't move. They finally get the hint and move a bit. So yeah, this is why NYC cases are exploding. This is not to say that I'm dismissing the seriousness of the virus. I'm just pointing out the inconsistency in the messaging and the response for the entire country as a one size fits all. Heck, even NJ isn't experiencing the same urgency as NYC, but Murphy is treating it as if it's ground zero. Very few people are getting airtime to propose commonsense solutions. Hype sells. We keep getting bombarded by stories of Chinese, South Korean and Singapore lockdowns, without getting much details of what happened. Reality is none of these countries truly locked down. And here's where experience with SARS and their culture came in to curb the spread. EVERYONE obeyed common social norms, they wore masks, they kept their distance and they washed their hands. Lo and behold, the spread slowed down and spread. Not so hard. Avoid direct contact and keep washing yourself.

I read the 2nd article, not the first. My biggest beef is the contradiction and no solution to his "time" example. I'm tired of people harping on the testing, when all resources should be devoted to adding beds, finding a treatment & vaccine.

Puevo is equally wrong in his analysis, because he doesn't account for the viral effects across geographies and countries. It's quaint to say that the virus doesn't recognize national boundaries, but the real impact across neighboring countries begs to differ. To me the best statistical explanation is this little chart, and it mirrors the spread fairly well. Do the histograph of infections in the green zone and a pattern certainly emerges.

Zerohedge reposted it. Seems like a lot of places a censoring what I think is a good analysis of the data. Funny how everyone jumped on Ginn because he's not a doctor or a medical expert. Which would be a perfectly valid criticism if he were dispensing medical advice, and not commenting on data trends, since he is a data guy. If I have time, I'll rebut the comments that TPS linked. In short, everyone is jumping to conclusions based on the outlier example and no one has addressed the wide discrepancies of the outbreak across countries, within countries, geographies and demographics.

As of today, USA's mortality rate is 1.25%, and will drop as more people are diagnosed. There's also wide disparity across the states, with NY & WA having higher numbers. This thing defies any rational patterns of disease spreading.

Stay safe. We're still weeks away from the peak

He does have a very valid point though. What Burr did was criminal.

You want the one guy who's never ever held a job to be in charge of a crisis? Don't you think there's a reason that Hillary destroyed him and why nobody wants to work with him? Because he's the guy on a group project who always talks but never does the job that was assigned to him.

Figured as much.

Anyone else getting the texts from friends who have contacts at FEMA talking about National Guard mobilization?

There's always the risk that any number coming from China does not match reality in any normal sense. But in this case, there's a greater risk to China to totally lie.

And it hasn't even been a week. Being THAT parent, I'm worried about next week.

Somethings is seriously amiss in Italy, because those numbers aren't reproduced across EU

I wonder where I heard this line of logic?

That's more than shade. That's a 20-lb sledgehammer slap

@john wawrow was right again

Pretty simple. Singletary's injury forced them to use Gore much more than they expected.

Those are allowed

Yeah, many financial companies severe restrictions in which stocks employees can trade.

And I'd probably get thrown in jail for merely researching a stock on my restricted list ?

Are you seriously insinuating that Apple and other US companies are reopening their Chinese facilities in order to make it look like things are returning to normal, when in reality they are not? Are you saying that Apple doesn't care that Chinese people are being sacrificed for the appearance of normalcy? Regression as in the rate of growth. That's step one.