GG

It’s more than just a tweet. The WHO’s formal position that there’s nothing to worry about was a major part of the local governments’ preparations in February. When WHO was not sounding the alarm as early as possible, deceived other countries about the appropriate response. What they did was criminal.

No studies on this one yet, AFAIK. But knowing that most other respiratory viruses are seasonal, and taking a quick look at the globe, the warmer places most certainly are better in holding down the infections. There were initial worries about Australia and Brazil, but so far no major areas of concern. Note that it was Northern Italy that got hit, while the south is spared. In US, CA, FL and TX are doing much better than anyone would have thought a month ago. LA is the anomaly, but that’s probably related to Marni Gras.

They're probably referring to research done by this professor. But he pulled his analysis back due to inconsistent data from CDC.

I took "empty" to mean empty of Wuhan virus patients.

Part of the 3 Cs - Climate. The warmer & more humid, the lower the spread. I'm praying for a return of the 80 degree April we had here not too long ago.

Then you can make the same argument about flu-related deaths.

My concern is how we get back to normal and if people get complacent about this thing, even with the increased awareness.

Italy, Spain & NY are reporting mortality figures that are double the historic trends for these months. If anything, NY has been undercounting Wuhan related deaths. We can go back, but personal habits will absolutely have to change. Forget about hugs and shaking hands for a while. Washing hands whenever you see a faucet.

People like to use the flu as an example, and the seasonal strains infect 40 - 50 million in the US. Wuhan is equally as contagious, so why wouldn't its spread follow the same trajectory across the country if there were no limits put in place?

Sure it is. By some miracle the virus stopped at the Delaware River.

You call that cheerleading, dumbass?

The rest of the country is benefiting from the March 13 shutdown. If that didn't happen, most US large cities would be going through NY experience right now.

It doesn't matter. If Wuhan virus didn't exist, these people wouldn't be in the hospital or get sick. It's like AIDS doesn't always kill someone.

Pushed off by a week. I optimistically hoped that NYC took Cuomo's advice to heart back on March 13.

Who the ***** is cheerleading?

It won't quadruple - USA's rate is up to 3.5% already, as NY is closer to 4.25%. Our ability to accommodate is not as important as the underlying health & demographics of the population. That's why Germany is doing better than the suth

I'm not arguing today's stats. I'm projecting what will happen if this thing spreads across the country and starts hitting areas that are generally older and not as healthy.

There's science and there's human behavior. The science part of this says that there's a highly contagious and deadly disease for which there's no real cure. You can slow it a bit, but you can't stop it until there's a treatment and vaccine. Don't think you're insulated because California's climate is helping to slow the speed of the spread. My assumption of the mortality rate if this starts to spread more braodly. The spread slowed down bigly with the shutdowns, but will likely resume once activity picks up and there's more interpersonal contact. When that happens, the outlook for US mortality will be grim. That's why people will need to change a lot of their old habits. Did you take the proportion of the US population that has at least 2 of the key contributing factors?

There's definitely a correlation, but heart disease is the #1 contributory factor.

Lombardy was considered a pure disaster and it isn't as dense as NYC. That's why NY is running about double on a per 1K basis compared to Lombardy or Madrid. So do your math based on those places with lower density, but more vulnerable population. NYC has higher infection rates, but much lower death rates - 4% compared to 8%. The rest of US will probably be closer to Italy & Spain in infections and deaths, which is scary.

Does this anecdote prove that there isn't a crisis in NYC metro area?

You don't need to be fat to have diabetes and heart disease.

Think of it more as a cautionary tale, not the exception. One month ago, NY had less than 200 cases. The US isn't as dense as NYC, but if you look at the general health of the rest of the US, if this keeps moving across the country the death rate will be very high because this virus loves heart disease, obesity and diabetes.

Yeah, if you go by national data, most hospitals are quiet. NYC metro, not so much.

Know anyone in NY tristate area, because it's certainly not overblown here. Unless, Cuomo and Diblasio felt like grabbing thousands of random people, throwing them into hospitals and then killing them. This is the same thing when everyone was doubting what was happening in Lombardy, while southern Italy was calm.