Brand J
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Posts posted by Brand J
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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:
Wouldn’t be a Sunday on the football messageboard without getting called dim by someone who finds it necessary to type the phrase ‘individual with a unique profile’!
To be fair, you are the same person who compared a weather event to copycat humans by asking “would there be less tornadoes if the media didn’t cover them?”
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3 hours ago, TH3 said:
Our country has decided that this stuff is an acceptable cost to unfettered access to guns and free and unaccountabile actions on the internet. Other countries have decided it is not.
And that’s what it boils down to right there. The right to bear arms supersedes all mass shootings and other forms of gun violence. Not sure that will ever change.
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I also wish it hadn’t came out during a heated debate with someone else, people are more likely to say falsities under those conditions that aren’t immediately provable to bolster their argument. Has PFF responded? If untrue I’d expect them to go after Lewan for defamation.
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3 minutes ago, jkeerie said:
Social media is less informative than it is a forum. These incidents aren't really copied. People who hate enough will find an avenue to act on that hatred whether or not it's been done before.
The idea has to originate somewhere, so in that sense it’s copied. Apparently this kid live streamed it on twitch and lists the New Zealand shooter as one of his heroes. I guess my point is, do you think we’d have so many of these shootings if they never got coverage? I know it’s an impossible question because it couldn’t happen, but people copy what they see. You’re right in that they’ll find a way to express that hatred, but I have no doubt they love the attention of these mass shootings.
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1 minute ago, jkeerie said:
It doesn't matter what the news media covers. Hate is shared rampantly through social media.
I meant social media too. Any medium that can broadcast these senseless acts to 330 million people, some idiot somewhere will see it and copy it and all it takes is one.
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Sad and senseless indeed. Prayers to all those affected. I have to wonder, if these things weren’t covered so extensively in the media (not that I blame the media one bit), would there be so many mass shootings? We live in a copycat society. The guy in New Zealand was literally live streaming his kills.
There were mass shootings before, like the sniper on the University of Texas campus, but I remember these things really taking off after Columbine.
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The holding concern/discussion has been over the top IMO. Even saw an article in The Athletic with Brian Moorman talking about it. There’s far more chatter now than when Bojorquez was actively here botching his attempts.
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Hey gator fans, or anyone else who has watched Elam for a couple years, how are his hands? Is he a ball hawk?
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35 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:
I didn’t say the data was meaningless altogether - just as an measure of predicting outcome. People think they can use that kind of data to predict outcomes, but it doesn’t really have any predictive ability. It just doesn’t.I agree 100% that people wanted to be right on Allen. But I would also say that the analyses on which so many based their opinions was drastically flawed.
When it comes to the entertainment industry - acting, writing, music, sports, etc. - it will always be easier to fail than succeed. Actually, that holds true in any industry. There will always be more sob stories than successes, so if you’re thinking from that standpoint, then yes, the data is largely arbitrary, it doesn’t mean much. Most of these players are supposed to fail and it might not even be their fault, there’s just too many variables to success.
We can look at the numbers Allen posted in college and declare “he will be a bust, because ALL the others before him have busted,” but we know that’s not true. The data gives you a predictive outcome based on the history of that position, so if Allen proved to be an outlier - as he did in this case comparative to his peers - then I do think it’s fair to say he defied analytics and I can’t say their process is “drastically” flawed… because it wasn’t, until Allen came along. You’re more than welcome to disagree, of course.
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1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:
I am actually aware of them. I argued this same thing quite extensively after Allen was drafted. Those statistics are meaningless in telling you whether any specific QB will be successful or not. The article you linked offers nothing. They have a "QBASE Rating" which means nothing in predictive ability - or much else for that matter. The fact they gave Baker Mayfield the fourth-highest QBASE projection (1480) of any prospect since 1997 and Josh Allen a -83 should tell you all you need to know about the validity of their QBASE rating.
They back up their analysis with statements like there have been only 5 QBs with less than a 58% completion rate drafted since 2005 and none of them were successsful; that Wyoming finished 119th in passingout of 130 teams in FBS - the lowest rank ever for a quarterback chosen in the top 100 picks of the NFL draft; and that since 1997, there have been 27 different quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 with QBASE ratings below zero - and none of them were very successful.
I won't bother to go through all of the reasons why these stats are absolutely meaningless when it comes to predicting whether or not Allen (or anyone else) would be successful - the list is way too long. The bottom line is they have no predictive ability at all.
At best, they are incomplete group statistics based on ridiculously small sample sizes and even more ridiculously superficial statistical variables and analyses. Even if they had some level of scientific validity to them, they would still be meaningless on an individual level. Think of them like the actuarial tables insurance companies use. They can give you all kinds of stats on life expectancy, but the one thing they can't tell you is how long you, as an individual, will live. The reason is that when you enter the realm of predicting outcomes for any given person, along with any other group data you have, you also have to factor in all of the relevant variables that are specific to that person - if you can even determine all of the variables that are relevant. And that is just a beginning point.
With Allen, this whole idea that he somehow defied the world of statistics just reached mythical proportions, summed up by the statement, "the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself." What a joke. There was no mathematical equation, formula, or framework within which anyone could show a math based reason why Allen wouldn't be successful. It just didn't exist.
In your original statement you said “Allen didn't defy anything. There are no analytics or statistics that said anything at all about whether Allen would be successful or not.” That was untrue. Even if you disagreed with such assessments and statistical analysis based on the body of his peers at the position, the analytics and statistics were out there. It’s predictive, not absolute. Just because all other QBs before Allen failed that came into the league with similar numbers, doesn’t necessarily mean Allen himself was guaranteed to fail, of course, but the data was gathered and used to predict an outcome. You can do this with any study, but there’s always an element of human error when going off sheer numbers because they can’t measure such things as heart and will - two things Allen has an abundance of in addition to his freakish athletic abilities.
That statement you quoted about outsmarting humans and mathematics is why so many were slow to come around on Allen - they wanted to be right. They wanted him to be a bust so his data wouldn’t defy their predictive analytics. More often than not I’d say their data points would be in the right, but there are always outliers and going off the tools they used to assess his potential success, Allen is the first outlier of the sort in NFL history. Meaningless? Not quite. 100% accurate? Of course not.
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@billsfan1959Heres one such article that didn’t take me long to find. Josh Allen’s 60% Bust Rate There are others that go much more in depth as well if you want to do some digging.
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30 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:
Name me one statistic that had any predictive ability whatsoever regarding whether or not Allen would be successful or not. I will save you the time. There aren't any. One of the biggest myths in modern football...
Myth or not, they were out there. And if you’re interested enough to go digging you’ll find them. It’s also why many of the posters here believe large portions of the media were so reticent to give Allen his due; based on their stats and analytics he was sure to be a bust and their models were proven wrong.
EDIT: the nature of their predictive ability was comparing his statistics to the history of QBs that came before him. There’s a thread now comparing arm lengths of CBs and why successful shorter armed CBs are fewer in number. The data for Allen was similar (not for physical measureables but for stats like accuracy) except there were no successes.
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27 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:
Allen didn't defy anything. There are no analytics or statistics that said anything at all about whether Allen would be successful or not. And Beane didn't give up all that draft capital to move to 7 to pick a QB he didn't believe was going to be a franchise QB.
So, in the end, the most important decision a GM in todays NFL can make is selecting a QB. And Beane absolutely hit it out of the f****ing park.
Oh, there was a laundry list of statistics rolled out to prove he would suck, maybe you didn’t see them. One of the variances he had was so far into the negative, I questioned myself could he do something that had never been done before (all the other QBs on the list were washouts, no successes). And obviously Beane didn’t trade up for a player he didn’t believe in, that was never the question. I remember him saying at the time he would watch Darnold or Mayfield and think “what would Allen have done here?” I thought it was a dangerous approach to take, but yes, he hit a 500 foot home run.
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7 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:
What excites me about Beane is he's beginning to understand the value of acquiring proven players thru draft picks or FA like Diggs & Von. Beane's not going to hit on every pick but he'll find serviceable players the majority of the time.
Beane has drafted one absolute star and a host of other very good players. As others on this board have said, picking at the end of each round will be much tougher in finding true blue chip talents. Truth is, if Josh Allen hadn’t defied analytics to become the star he is today, we could very well be thinking about a new HC/GM going into the season. Hitting on the QB changes everything.
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New article from The Athletic, nothing groundbreaking regarding the Bills:
Quote“Buffalo definitely needed someone instead of Levi Wallace to go opposite Tre’Davious White,” an exec said.
The Bills also could have been competing with the Chiefs for pass-rush help if they had not signed Von Miller to a six-year, $120 million deal in free agency. Buffalo in recent years has invested early picks in pass-rushers Greg Rousseau, A.J. Epenesa and Boogie Basham without stellar results. Kansas City used the 30th pick this year for Purdue pass-rusher George Karlaftis.
“What Buffalo did signing Von Miller was the same thing Howie Roseman did in Philly, where he said, ‘Let’s just get A.J. Brown so I don’t have to be labeled as the guy who can’t evaluate receivers,'” an exec said. “Buffalo definitely could be in better shape if those pass-rushers they drafted were better. By signing Von and not drafting pass-rushers, you are hoping one of those guys develops so you can say, ‘See, they just needed time and patience.'”
Buffalo waited until 50 picks after Baltimore selected a punter at 130 to select one of its own in San Diego State’s Matt Araiza.
“A lefty punter that can boom it in the swirling winds and inclement weather is a turnover waiting to happen up there,” an exec said.
Well, maybe except for the implication Beane doesn’t know how to evaluate the trenches. Slow news day.
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Edmunds. He’s around the ball a lot, he just rarely makes the game changing play. If he starts playing up to the potential we thought we were trading up to get, I think he’d have the biggest impact on defense not named Von Miller.
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I’d be surprised if Beane doesn’t do his due diligence to at least see what his camp is asking for. He’d be great on a 1 year deal where he’d come to the Bills and be the best version of himself 😂
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Didn’t realize Cody’s 3 cone and shuttle were so horrendous. It’s surprising he was mocked in the 1st round to some teams.
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Is he subject to waivers? If so I’d imagine no team will claim him and will wait until he clears to negotiate their own contract.
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You guys still want WRs? We have Diggs, Davis, Crowder, McKenzie, a rookie with potential in Shakir, and two unknowns with potential in Stevenson and Hodgins. Not to mention Touchdown Jesus. There’s no all star receiver coming in now that’ll push that group even higher so why the desire to add names like Fuller? You’ve gotta let your own play at some point.
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He’ll need to learn how to rush from RDE, going against LTs, because Von’s best work comes on the left side of the formation, against RTs. I don’t know if I see Groot beating LTs off the edge for a double digit sack season.
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With McKenzies old number comes his old nickname “The Face of the Franchise.” Remember the days when Brian Moorman graced the cover of pamphlets? Araiza is next 😂
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I see that Araiza chose #19 (don’t like that number for a punter). What did McKenzie switch to?
Nvm: saw it in the other thread. #6 for McKenzie.
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Seems like they moved on from the Williams idea with the signing of Quessenberry (sp?) but I’d like to see him brought back. Same with Jerry Hughes, but I’m sure neither would take a vet minimum deal.
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Jon Feliciano's take on KC playoff game
in The Stadium Wall
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Some of the blame on this play also lies at the feet of Allen (no pun intended). Give TN credit, in their scouting report they were told “Allen always sneaks to the left,” so they lined two lineman on that side shoulder to shoulder, inches apart, and sure enough Josh still tried the sneak over there. Had he gone to his right, he likely would’ve walked in for the TD.