PBF81
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Posts posted by PBF81
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2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
I see. You're not throwing them out. You're "discounting" them.
You do know those two are essentially synonyms, right? They both mean that some statistics don't fit your vision, they're harmful to your argument, so you don't want to be inconvenienced by them so you're not going to use them. You're absolutely throwing them out. And again, doing so is simply illegitimate in any context but a context where you also throw out the best three games of every other QB. You're not doing that, and for the obvious reason that it would hurt your narrative.
More, those aren't particularly the best three games in his career, except for in terms of TDs. The next year, 2016, he had a game with more yards than any of those three, and four TDs. In 2017 two games where he outgained those three games you are talking about and put up 3 TDs each time. In 2018 two more, each one with 3 TDs. And those are only in the years after 2015.
You haven't got a single legit argument there for throwing them out. Beyond the fact that it suits you, that is. Again, every QB is going to tend to do well against poorer teams. And with every team playing 12 teams a year back then and 13 now, you'll play some crappy teams. This is just how statistics work, precisely what happens when you have football teams run through schedules against each other. They'll play some good teams and bad ones. They'll tend overall to do better against the bad teams. Each team will play some bad teams, and to "discount" by not considering the games against bad teams from one team will show nothing beyond the fact that you have some reason to make them want to look bad.
You seem to have forgotten to include all of Cam's running stats. And they're a big part of his effectiveness.
Your last group of stats there, where you throw out again his good games and pretend you're showing something useful ... again, it shows more about you than about Cam. You're making this bad argument even more bald-facedly. You take out his best three games. And then you try to use the resulting stats in rankings, rankings against QBs for whom you used all of their games, leaving their best games in, of course. Again, that shows far more about how far you'll go to make this argument than it does about Cam.
He was never a great passer. But a pretty good one, (until he wasn't any more) who like Josh multiplied his productivity and effectiveness by being a run threat on every play.
The OLs he played with were not very good, changing year after year, and the best one was absolutely 2015, though even then Remmers was a major weakness at tackle. Newton covered up a lot of below-average OL play during his tenure. Till the injuries ate away his effectiveness and dependability.
Well, OK, of that's something more in your book than average passing, great, so be it.
Similarly however, if three games out of 144 against dreadful Ds are what is required to prove that a QB is above average, isn't that the same thing.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Either way, let's chalk it up to different standards.
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3 hours ago, JerseyBills said:
That's not good but I think we used him under 5 min w the lead a ton and were content getting 5-7 yards combined on 1st and 2nd down when the D knew we were running, in order to burn clock and skewed his average.
After some thought, that was actually the case prior to the last five games. He only had four 3rd-down carries all season.
We were never up by any significant amount in any of the last five games. We lost one of those games and nearly lost the others with the D/STs bailing is out twice.
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On 5/9/2024 at 9:19 AM, Mr. WEO said:
No more free "all 22" filming...
LOL
You can see it now, parking lots with way more cars and hundreds of drones over the stadium as fans watch from the lots. Drones buzzing down to where the wire-cam is.
It'd be fun to be in a light tower with a radio to shoot down drones with a high-velocity pellet gun upon request.
On 5/9/2024 at 10:11 AM, SoCal Deek said:Does this also apply to flying over the New Stadium construction site? 😉
Once it's finished, if we only had a dome we wouldn't have to worry about drones.
9 hours ago, sherpa said:Just so people know, it is illegal to fly a drone within three nautical miles from any stadium having a capacity of 30,000 or more from one hour prior to scheduled start until one hour after.
Many other events trigger what are called Temporary Flight Restrictions, which also prohibit drone operations. Obvious ones would include Presidential appearances, but there are many others.
You can request a waiver from the FAA for any number of requests, but it would never be granted in this case.
Regarding size and registration, if it weighs more than .55 lbs, it must be registered.
I can't imagine anything worth flying, or having any capability weighing less than that. The battery weighs that much.
If someone does it, local law enforcement can stop it, use the FAA's Law Enforcement Assistance Program to report it, and the FAA can pursue certificate or even criminal action. The NFL wants local police to have authority for enforcement.
The NFL has had many games delayed because of this, and it is extremely dangerous. In most cases the drones were not registered, so flying them anywhere would have been a violation, let alone within the temp flight restricted area of an NFL stadium.
Thanks!
We'll all keep our drones in our pants.
Unlike this guy ...
https://www.reddit.com/r/buffalobills/comments/3vqdg7/bills_fans_get_it_on_in_the_parking_lot_while/
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1 hour ago, Einstein said:
Im not an architect or stadium expert, but I have researched the past dozen or so NFL stadiums that have been built and the Bills are the *only* team who played coy with the renderings, what you receive, more than cursory details of updated amenities, etc.
What's mind-boggling is why the secrecy.
It can't really be because they think that sales will be brisker if they withhold that imagery.
It's just weird.
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1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
Mahomes had a down year and they still won the SB
No argument here. But again, we get into the why of it all.
One argument is that they finally had a top defense (2nd ranked), but it didn't fold in the playoffs. They allowed 7, 24, 10, and 22 points, for an average of 16 PPG in the playoffs, and against teams ranked 2nd, 6th, 4th, and 3rd in scoring.
Contrast that with our Ds over the past three seasons.
2021:
We had the 1st ranked D and allowed 17 and 36 in regulation to the 6th ranked (NE) and 4th ranked offenses.
2022:
We had the 2nd ranked D and allowed 24 (Skylar Thompson) and 27 points to the 11th and 7th ranked offenses. Keep in mind that Miami was nowhere near 11th with Thompson at the helm. In fact, of his three starts, his best game was vs. us, in Buffalo. Minnesota and their 28th ranked D held him to notably worse.
2023:
We had the 4th ranked D and allowed 17 and 27 to the 28th and 15th ranked offenses. Also here, the Steelers (28th) were playing a backup QB.
In 2021 the Chiefs only scored more points all season against the Raiders' 26th ranked D twice, the Eagles' 18th ranked D, and the Steelers' 20th ranked D.
In 2022 the Fins only scored more points against the Texans' 27th ranked D, the Lions' 28th ranked D, the Bears' 32nd (DFL) ranked D, the Browns' 20th ranked D, and the Ravens' 3rd ranked D. The Bengals only scored more points vs. the 9th ranked Saints, the 13th ranked Bucs, the 23rd ranked Falcons, the 10th ranked Steelers, and the 19th ranked Panthers.
In 2023 the Chiefs only scored more points against the 9th ranked Raiders' D, the 24th ranked Chargers' D, and the 20th ranked Bears' D.
Whether or not that's impressive is apparently in the eyes of the beholder, but mathematically it's underachieving when weighing our defensive ranking contrasted with our defensive performances in contrast to all the teams ranked worse than us, which in 2020 were all 31 other teams, in 2021 were 30 teams, and 2022 were 28 teams.
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47 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
I think the idea is Davis and Johnson take some of the carries off Cook. I expect similar amount of touches but more in space and out of the backfield. Cook should be a primary player for the offense and used in a manner similar to Kamara.Well, we'll certainly see. What they say when they draft and sign these guys is often diametrically opposed. Jones is a great example.
Seems likely that we're either going to have a very explosive season offensively, or that Allen's going to have a relatively down year statistically. One or the other.
24 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:That's not good but I think we used him under 5 min w the lead a ton and were content getting 5-7 yards combined on 1st and 2nd down when the D knew we were running, in order to burn clock and skewed his average.
Idk, overall Cook is a really good back imo and feel with Brady having a full off season , Cook will put up much better #s
He's also never gotten anywhere near as many carries & touches that he got last season, either in the NFL or in college.
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1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
I don’t disagree with the larger point that the defense has greatly underachieved, particularly once it reaches the divisional round.what exactly are you supposed to do as a GM here? Blow it all up because of poor results in a small sample size of postseason games compared to great results over a much larger sample size in the regular season? The disastrous defense in the postseason has been a huge problem, no doubt. But the solution isn’t so simple.
but you’re also only talking about one side of the ball here. Did the offense underachieve in the 13 second game? Even in this most recent loss to KC they scored what 24 points against what was a very good Chiefs defense? Believe the 24 points was the most the Chiefs gave up all postseason last year.
i’d say the punch out to cause the touchback and save a touchdown was as big a play as any in the game. Just as big as Jones rush against Dawkins.
No real argument with most of that although the Packers put up 27 offensive and Denver matched our 24.
In terms of yards gained, 1st-Downs achieved, and passing yards, we were very much in the middle of the stack vs. KC. In rushing we were low-end against them. There wasn't a lot of garbage time in most of KC's games either.
But given what you said, you seem to imply that if there's a fault in our greater system, that it's on Beane, which is quite possible, t least partially.
But given what you said, is there anything else that you would consider that might be an issue in the causation of that all?
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4 minutes ago, Gregg said:
I bet the week 18 season finale is against them as the AFCE may be on the line.
Six more days 'til we find out, but if that's the logic, the week 18 game against May be against the Jets whom many consider to be the top challenger for the East.
They split with us with Wilson at QB whereas Miami once again dropped both games vs. us. Now the Jets have Rodgers back.
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8 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
If I am to believe what is being sold in this thread than I would have to also know that Allen is criminally underrated. Underrated not just by the national media but by even Bills fans on TBD. Allen should be recognized as the alpha QB in today's game, even over Mahomes and perhaps by a wide margin.
Let's follow the logic laid out here.
1. Allen keeps the Bills contending year after year pretty much by himself because he hasn't been given the proper roster support by Beane and McDermott.
2. Mahomes, who everyone recognizes as the clear alpha QB in today's game, is surrounded by great talent and coaching over that same four year time period. Tyreek, GOAT tight end in Kelce, GOAT offensive coach in Reid, GOAT defensive coach in Spags and top 3 defensive player in the game today in Chris Jones. Just an absolute embarrassment of riches the KC ownership and GM have provided to Mahomes. Bravo.
3. Despite the clear imbalance of riches between the two teams, Josh Allen, nearly by himself has managed to lead the Bills to the second most wins over that four year time period, trailing only the Chiefs. Josh Allen has gone a perfect 3-0 against the Chiefs and Mahomes in the last three regular season games and has played two nearly perfect playoff games against the Chiefs only to end up losing late due to circumstances largely out of his control. Literally one squib kick or one lucky bounce away from being 5-0 against the Chiefs and Mahomes in the last five contests between the two.
If all of the above is true, it's pretty clear who the alpha QB in today's game is. Or, more likely, the Bills roster these last four years has not been nearly as bad as some want to believe.
You missed one simple thing.
Absolutely no one in our team besides Allen has consistently stepped up in the playoffs, not one player, as in zero.
Since our primary problem isn't getting to the playoffs, aka not the regular season, it's our postseason performance in that regard, and where our defense folds and underachieves more often than not, what is the explanation for that in your assessment?
Allen's a what, top-2 QB? There aren't many, if any, top 5 or 6 QBs watching the playoffs come January.
It's not difficult for teams with to QBs to simply make the playoffs today unless they have zero defense and few skill position players. This past season the top 8 yardage and top 6 TD QBs all made the playoffs.
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1 hour ago, NoSaint said:
who are we to argue the expertsLOL, indeed.
Seriously though, from the angle that we'll get up for Miami it makes sense, but losing to them seems all but inconceivable. NE and the Jets beat us once each those past season, NE nearly twice, and both teams have improved. It's not difficult to envision us splitting with them again, or the Jets even taking two.
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13 hours ago, Mat68 said:
I think they like Johnson in his current role. If Cook got hurt I dont see him carry the load.
Cook petered out late in the season. He averaged a pathetic 3.6 yards-per-carry in his last five games. Not sure whether that was how he was used or simply being unused to that many touches.
How this season plays out will be incredibly interesting. We had an even higher rated RB in Moss, very similar in style to Davis, and far more accomplished in college, and we didn't seem to know how to use him and didn't do much with him.
There certainly isn't any clear plan in view.
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7 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:
It's in order of toughness.
Our toughest home and away games are Dolphins/Patriots
Easiest games of the year are the Chiefs at home and the Lions in Detroit.
We haven't lost to the Dolphins though other than in that heat game in which we entirely outplayed them, and otherwise since Allen's 7th ever start and his first game against them, in Miami. We own Miami.
The Jets H/A games many think will be our toughest. If Rodgers stays healthy that's likely the case, no?
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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:
No, I don't think so, although I really hadn't remembered as well as I thought I had. Obviously I hadn't been watching him and the Panthers as much as the Bills.
His dropoff didn't really come after 2015. More 2017 or 2018. You're right that particularly in passing TDs, 2015 was the standout year. Average overall? No, I'd say he had plenty of good years till about 2017 when his running started to drop off and his passing wasn't too far behind. In 2017 he had the rotator cuff. In 2018 the shoulder injury that reduced his performance at the end of the year and his Lisfranc injury year in 2019 didn't look good either. He was never a great passer, but throw in the running and he was really effective. Until he wasn't.
As for variance and three five TD games, that's how stats work. Throw out the best three games and you can make just about any season look much more average. Throw out Josh's three highest TD games last year and he only threw 19 TDs in a 17 game season. He must suck. Again, throw out the best three games in Josh's 2022 and he only had 24 passing TDs. It's just how stats work. Yes, Cam had a lot of passing TDs that year, way above his average, but he was feared for a reason, he was a good productive effective QB through most of his career, till he dropped off. But yeah, he never had another year as good as that 2015.
He's an interesting player. I'm glad you gave me a chance to go back and take a look.
We're not simply "throwing out three games ...", we're discounting them because they were the three best games of his career, his only three games with 5 passing TDs each.
The difficulties come in that the teams against which that occurred, two were ranked DFL and 31st in passing D, which renders any performance less than stellar. The other team had the 25th ranked passing D. It just so happens that they all happened to be in the same season.
Otherwise, and we can use varying metrics, but in terms of passing TD production, Newton has ranked accordingly;
2011: 12th in TDs, 15th in Rating
2012: 21st in TDs, 15th in Rating
2013: 14th in TDs, 16th in Rating
2014: 20th in TDs, 26th in Rating
2015: 5th in TDs, 7th in Rating
2016: 20th in TDs, 28th in Rating
2017: 15th in TDs, 24th in Rating
2018: 14th in TDs, 17th in Rating
In his 13 other games against teams that weren't the two worst and one comparable, his per-season average in those games would also have placed him at 14th in TDs. Even so, in 2015, in his proficiency metrics within that "remarkable" season were:
27th in Compl. %
16th in Passing Yards
12th in 1st Down production
10th in Success%
26th in Sack%
23rd in Yards-per-Game
12th in Net Yards per Attempt
The data suggest all but indisputably that Newton was always nothing more than an average QB, even in that 2015 season.
20 minutes ago, FireChans said:Did those Cowboys do it in the NFCCG?
Like @GoBills808 said, the running joke that whole season was “the worst 15-1 team ever.” Yet they demolished a 13-3 Cardinals team and then beat the two time defending NFC champion Seahawks.
I wouldn’t categorize any team that made it to a SB and lost as “overrated.” I’d categorize them as one of the two teams that season that beat enough teams on their schedule to get to the Super Bowl.
OK
You have a point based upon scant data and you're immovable. That's fine. But there's no need to belabor the argument.
It's also not particularly important.
It's clear that both the Panthers under Rivera and our team under McD have both underachieved, perhaps them more so, particularly given some of the really standout talent on their team, but similarly in the playoffs.
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6 hours ago, FireChans said:
That may be true. Calling them overrated after dismantling the 13-3 Cards and the beating the back to back SB team Seahawks is kinda wild though
Even the worst teams beat a good team or two many seasons. The 1-15 Cowboys beat the 10-6 Skins as their only win in '89 I think it was.
Otherwise, it's also wild calling a team that largely beat losing teams all season long with one of the easiest schedules in modern history as something other than overrated.
It's arguable either way I suppose.
The greater point is that Newton was a very average QB other than in a single season, and that season was carried by his three best career games against the two worst passing Ds in the league and the 25th ranked passing D, for 15 of his 35 TDs. Newton was always a very average passer.
The Panthers were a mixed bag under that coaching staff. Hot 'n cold from one season to the next, never any consistency.
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6 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:
Only in as much as:
The D doesn’t play well in the biggest moments ( L Jackson pick, yeah, I know)
They haven’t added the outside burner( s) Josh deserves. Not sure that will be Brady’s fault but agree he will catch heck for it.
We'll see, but IMO it'll go beyond the talent and into the approach. Some would still no doubt defer that if that were to be the case.
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1 hour ago, Buffalo Boy said:
Sure, but they beat bad teams.
They didn’t lose to The Pats, Or Jets, Or Jags ( a couple years back) or all the other piss poor teams we have continually lost to under McD.
They took care of business.Not arguing that I'm the least.
It's a great guess that by this season's end there's going to be a lot of criticism of Brady's approach in conjunction with our complimentary football MO.
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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:
Yes, that was the running joke that season...the NFL media kept dubbing them the 'worst 3-1 team ever'...then worst '4-1 team ever'...all the way up to the Super Bowl lol
you can tell who actually watched them vs people who just looked up their wikipedia page, that was a rugged team
I won't disagree, but let's not lose sight of the greater point, that an easy schedule, and there's zero denying that Carolina had an easy schedule that season, makes for an easier season and when the tough games come up, teams aren't as warn out.
Common sense too. NE had that arrangement in our crap division throughout Brady's tenure.
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7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
100% Cam got the most out of that offense but they had Olsen who was near best in the league at that point and the oline was pretty good iirc
they beat the Seahawks who had been to two straight Super Bowls lol
So did four other teams. They were 10-6, not 14-2.
Either way, of the argument is that they beat two good teams all season, sure. It was still one of the easiest schedules of any team in the NFL over two decades. That's a fact.
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29 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Seattle, the back the back NFC champions and the 1st overall defense and 4th overall offense “wasn’t tough?”
The Denver defense was elite. They also frazzled Brady. They made a lot of good teams look silly.
Carolina played the worst offensive game of any team that Denver faced that season.
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47 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:
The time to strike is when the opportunity presents itself.
They caught lightning in a bottle tag at year, all year, till they ran into Denver’s D
Well, OK, but one of two good teams they played all season, 1-1. And Denver's offense was awful, far worse than Arizona's. Arizona was easily the more complete team.
42 offensive points vice 10?
One win all season against any team that made it past the divisional round is hardly a harbinger of greatness.
12 of their 17 regular season games were against teams 8-8 or worse and with negative point-differentials.
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1 minute ago, FireChans said:
Their schedule wasn’t easy in the playoffs. They absolutely annihilated the 13-3 Cards.
Correct, one team/game all season.
Seattle was not tough.
Denver had Manning (P) before he unceremoniously slinked off after having posted the worst season of any starting QB that season. 9 TDs, 17 INTs, and the worst rating in the league.
They were all but shut out against Denver's D which was about the same as Arizona's.
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39 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
Yeah, absolutely. But we are talking about that year.
Still amazed by how early Newton's drop-off happened, and how steep it was.
I guess I disagree that he was overrated. Everyone knows he was never very good after that year. Before that year, pretty damn good. That year. Terrific.
Was it really a drop-off though?
He was an incredibly average QB in every other season, no? ... by any measure.
On that season his passing stats were skewed by three monster 5 TD games against the two worst ranked paying D teams and the 25th ranked. Those were the the best passing games of his entire career.
The rest of his season was also incredibly average.
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1 hour ago, Buffalo Boy said:
The Panther’s were my second team. They got me through some ROUGH Bills seasons, with 2015 being a perfect example.
That team was light years better than anything we have had in the McD/JA era for one simple reason. …. SWAGGER!
On O, Cam and Josh are equal in this department. Cam elevated a putrid receiver group. His energy was infectious and they expected to score every time.
On D, Kuechly and Davis were MONSTERS!!!! So fun to watch. That D was a turnover creating machine and for those who remember, Boyst kept saying Cam sucked because the D kept giving him short fields.😜 We currently have Douglas who plays with that level of self confidence AND creates turnovers. Maybe Milano gets back to form but he couldn’t hold Kuechly or Davis’ jock in terms of ability.
Most importantly,IMO, This was the Riverboat Ron era at its apex. All caution was thrown to the wind by Rivera and they played straight pedal to the metal on O. McD should have a one on one with his old boss and try to get rid of his risk aversion/ timidness/tentativeness tha this team seems to embody, especially when playing lesser teams( and MUCH TO OFTEN losing).
Emphasize apex. Five losing seasons out of eight otherwise.
Apart from that season, Rivera was 61-62 there. His playoff track record apart from that one season is similar in futility to ours.
The apple hasn't fallen far from the tree.
Rivera was there for 8 seasons before getting fired and going to DC they everyone saw how bad he really was.
1 hour ago, Buffalo Boy said:The Panthers always yo yoed between good seasons and bad, it was actually crazy to watch as it seemed so predictable
They had crazy good talent in several positions, underachieved in major ways.
My primary point was that that '15 season is vastly overrated as the season had their streets paved with gold, their schedule could not have been more accommodating had the schedule makers tried to make it easier. Literally.
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2 hours ago, BillsVet said:
One of these decades the Carolina model could work.
Carolina went 6-10 after that 15-1 season, so pretty clear that model is not sustainable. Besides, the game is changing rapidly now and what worked in that one excellent season nearly 10 years ago no longer applies.
That Carolina season is so overrated that it's ridiculous.
They had one of the easiest schedules during our entire drought era. They had not one team with more than 10 wins in their schedule, and then only two at 10-6.
Not one team in their division scored more points than it allowed.
That should be factors into any discussion.
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Stadium Construction Discussion (No PSL/Seat selection posts)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
One could surmise that the Buffalos were meant as a distraction to get people all whooped up so that they wouldn't ask anymore questions.
Either way, this is the stadium project that everyone seems to agree has had the least depictions (renderings) of what the final product will look like of any.