PBF81
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Posts posted by PBF81
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2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
Well, I hear what you're saying, but I think it misses the point, which is that the Bills are a good team, and it's difficult for anyone other than the top picks to actually make the team. When you're mediocre, like the Bills were several years ago, it's much more likely that you're going to find a Milano in the draft, because (1) you're drafting higher in each round, and (2) you have needs. So, a Milano then gets on the field right away and gets to grow. A fifth rounder now has a much higher hurdle to get over to get on the field. If you can't see the field, you're development is limited. Milano got to play, and Edmunds got to play. One developed, one didn't. So, there's that.
Not sure that's really fair between Edmunds and Milano though. MIlano only came to be top-end the past two years, at the age of 27/28, and in his 5th & 6th seasons. Edmunds came on too in his 5th this past season, but at the age of 24. He's barely into his prime. That's the problem with drafting players that are 20. He was the youngest player in the league in his rookie season.
I think we'll see a much better Edmunds in Chicago this season. IMO they should have found a way to keep him, particularly since they just drafted over Knox whom they just extended at high cost. I'm actually wondering if Beane is going to try to trade Knox now.
QuoteSo, yeah, I wasn't completely happy with Beane's focus in this draft, but I'm not sure it's fair. Beane does everything for a reason.
Unfortunately those reasons have rarely panned out the way he intended.
2 hours ago, dgrochester55 said:A good draft in my opinion, but too early to call it an A and not the best one in the NFL. The first two picks were nailed with receiving help for Josh Allen in Kincaid and an instant upgrade of the interior line in Torrance. The latter part addressed position needs, but whether or not these people can contribute will remain to be seen. I do not think that Dorian Williams is a bad pick like many others do, but can understand the concern of others that we might have added another Terrell Bernard. Shorter is a complete boom or bust pick, but most likely needs a couple years of development before they add to the team. I don't know anything about Broeker and Austin, but no one in the 7th round is a reach(as some others were saying). They are competition for depth as late round picks are expected to be.
After the draft, linebacker is the biggest question mark. Can Bernard or Williams replace the production of Edmunds? We won't know until the time comes. The offense is now significantly better which is what many of us wanted. That to me is a big success. There have been a lot of misses in the last three years, I am hoping that this trend changes with the draft. We will see what happens.
It took both Milano and Edmunds four seasons to develop. Beane doesn't have four seasons to wait, especially if Kincaid doesn't turn into an immediate impact player.
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3 hours ago, Limeaid said:
Hard to win the draft with only 5 picks.
Beane traded down for 6 total picks so that he wouldn't have been the only GM in Bills' history to have only 5 picks.
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24 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
Did we go with 7 last year to start the season? If so, we are good. Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Hardy, Sherfield and the two rookies.
I don't recall. I have no idea BTW, just asking the question. I mean we drafted this WR Shorter from Florida that everyone's going bonkers over, but in addition to him and numerous others on the roster, I don't know where they're all going to fit. You only need so many STs WRs, eh.
We'll see. On a tangent though, our OL could be much better of Torrence is the real thing and McGovern is as they say. Bates can play C if Morse gets hurt, Dawkins is solid despite some being down on him, so if Brown can step up, particularly with four other decent OL-men next to him, if Dorsey can avoid f'ing things up then we could very well have the #1 offense. I don't have the same hopes for our D, but having the top offense or even a well-balanced #2 would be great.
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1 hour ago, Herb Nightly said:
Williams is excellent in coverage and could back up Milano.
We don't know that yet, even if true, I'm sure it'd be a big drop off from Milano to a rookie.
More concerned about the other starting positions tho. Milano has no significant injury history.
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There a lot of WRs on the team now. Which won't make it?
Diggs, Davis, & Shakir will be there. Just signed Hasty & Sherfield. Two TEs, one supposedly playing slot now.
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15 minutes ago, klos63 said:
These obviously mean nothing in regards to Kincaid. Plus he is moving into a very pass happy offense with an MVP caliber QB. I don't know what to expect, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a big impact on the offense.
That's right, good point, we don't know what to expect. But we can at least use last season's info for a guide.
Only three of our WRs/TEs had more than 42 catches, only one had more than 48. The fourth one, McKenzie, had 42. After him, 10, 8, 6, 4.
We have Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Hasty, Sherfield, Knox, and Kincaid. Knox is getting a bundle too, it's doubtful that he'll be relegated to backup status, and he shouldn't be until if/when Kincaid proves to be the better TE.
Either way, a good exercise would be dividing on or about those 270 catches amongst our 7 receivers.
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3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
To your second sentence - I don't think we hear pro scouting voices at all. They keep their work confidential.
I saw your thread, I thought it was good. I reacted favorably to it.
As to the above, I was referring to the stuff that gets put out in the media, and by people that posters here have cited as "draft experts."
To your point however, we don't know what teams come up with, but I'm sure that many disagree with the publicly put forth experts. We'll simply never know.
I was referring to what most fans say about players, obviously they're picking 99% of it up from them, and they generally all agree with one another, at least to one extent or another. I mean it's ridiculous to think that anyone posting here did hundreds of hours of research on a whole bunch of players just for kicks and giggles. They're getting their info from somewhere however.
2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:Dawson Knox also ran a 4.59 at the combine, so eventhough his stats were marginal in college and he played a way different role for his team, the potential was obviously there. So I know stats don’t tell the whole story, but Knox is a bit of a misnomer because of his teams poor utilization of his talents.
And there's a reason why Kincaid didn't attend the combine, and it's not all because of his back.
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2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:
Fun fact looking at the Mayer vs Kincaid things. Mayer often time had a higher % of the rec pie vs the rest of the WRs on their team than Kincaid, AND with ND running the ball more often.
That tells me Mayer would have had even better results vs Kincaid had his OC game planned differently. Mayer was often featured more often, because he was clearly the best receiving threat on the team, whereas Kincaid wasn’t featured as much despite being touted as the better WR option.
I don't mind Kincaid, to me it seemed to be more of luxury pick however and I never would have traded up for for it, especially not at the cost of a 4th. I have no idea what Beane was thinking. In total after all of his trades we moved up those two spots but down 160 elsewhere total. It was bizarre.
Again, we're now six drafts into Beane's team. We'll see how things turn out this fall. But again, if it's on the short end, the tough questions need to start being answered. If we win the Super Bowl, then great, everyone's happy. LOL
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12 minutes ago, Chaos said:
Both are good, and they will be comped against each other in the future. I think Kindcaid's more WR similarities makes him a better fit for the Bills than Mayer though.
I know you do. Do you mind my asking however, what do you base that on, beside the script draft profiles, which are all essentially the same? Or is that it?
6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:I would not have been just as happy with Mayer.
I saw a big unfilled need on the Bills as a slot receiver - a skilled route runner able to find the gaps in zone coverage and get open as an outlet. Beasley, before the draft, had a point that if he joined the Bills he would have been the best slot receiver as far as demonstrated ability (at that time)
I thought the lack of a slot Josh trusted in that regard allowed teams to clamp down on Diggs and Davis
I would have liked a 1st round WR, but given we couldn't make a reasonable trade-up into the territory that would let us draft a guy we had a 1st round grade on (Addison, reportedly), the reports on Kincaid and what Beane says about how they'll use him makes him seem as though he can potentially fill that need.
The reports on Mayer don't seem as though he can potentially fill that need without a good bit of development time.
We'll see. Allow me to ask, what are your expectations for Kincaid this fall?
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13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Mayer and Kincaid are both good players and predicted to become starters, but they very different players in their scouting reports. Trying to boil it down to who had more 5 reception games is silly. That's not how pro scouting works.
It's telling that Mayer went 10 picks later than Kincaid. It says that the rest of the league isn't impressed by his superior number of 5 catch games.
Pro scouting typically mimics one another. That's why you rarely if ever hear one or more lone voices out there going against the flow.
Consider, to properly evaluate a player, you have to spend a few hours going over video and then looking at other info. Say 4 hours of video, that's even customized for that player's plays, then a few hours looking over info from other sources as well.
There's what, 400-ish players in the Draft, right. That's months of work even if you did only 100 players. A team could break it down by person on their staff and only choose the players that they think they're interested in, right. But you also have to hope that everyone doing the evaluating knew what to look for as well. Simply because people get paid to do something, doesn't mean that they're truly "experts" or actually know what they're doing, contrary to passing snide comments here or elsewhere. Consider, does Belichick know what he's doing as GM? Clearly not. How about Whaley, was he an expert? How about Jerry Jones, Matt Millen, or Vinny Cerrato? Are they experts? You get the point. Same for coaching BTW.
To me, it makes more sense to get copies of the games that players played that were the toughest, featured the most talent that will be going on to the NFL, and big games.
I'll PM you my analysis of Kincaid. You won't like it, but I'll send it to you to see what I'm talking about. And no, I did not use video for him.
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1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:
Maybe they did, I’m not exactly sure how much time analysis they dedicate to each and every prospect they filter. Obviously they can’t go to every game or watch every single snap of every single prospect they put grades on.
There are quite a few non productive games that Kincaid had against okish teams that are a little concerning. You usually want to see a 1st round talent have fairly consistent games. Mayer had more 60yrd+ games then Kincaid, against slightly better teams. There were many times Kincaid wasn’t even top 2 on the team in receiving games, where Mayer had more, etc.You can call the school and ask for a disc (or whatever video format) for a particularly player's plays in any or all games. They'll happily send them if you're a media member.
FWIW I'd have been just as happy with Mayer.
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26 minutes ago, Chaos said:
I promise two guys besides Milano will be starters.
LOL
Ahhh, but will they hold the fort down.
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2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:
Klein and Dotson have the most experience. I can easily see us try to sign Myles Jack. The rest of the ILB fodder can compete with each other for rotational snaps.
Yeah, experience is one thing, ability to hold the fort as a starter is different. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that anyone after Milano is starting LB material.
It's concerning to be sure. And what if Milano were to get injured? Yikes!!
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4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:
Addison was clearly the player we were targeting as per @Alphadawg7’s post, so I am assuming that the Bills’ scouts spent a LOT of time watching USC games. In the Pac-12 championship game vs USC this year, Kincaid had 16 catches on 16 targets for 234 yards in Utah’s victory. In the Cotton Bowl, Dorian Williams was the Defensive Player of the Game vs. USC in Tulane’s victory. Maybe it’s a coincidence, of course!
That USC game for Kincaid was the regular season game vs. USC.
In the PAC-12 CG he had 4 catches for 40 yards, no TDs, and was the fifth leading receiver on the team and the 9th leading receiver in the game.
49 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:If this is true, then it’s pretty sad if pro scouts get sucked into individual games. When you talent evaluate, you have to take way more into consideration than just great performances at random times. That’s to emotional for analytical accuracy.
Thanks!! That seems to elude so many.
Taking a "best" game would be no different than taking a "worst" game.
The entire body of work needs to be considered, as do opponents, both team and individual, etc.
That's why I'm not as excited as others about Kincaid. His biggest games were against some of the worst pass-Ds in the NCAA, and one of which against Southern Utah, a crappy FCS team. Not to mention, the PAC-12 isn't noted for its defenses, to understate it.
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7 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:
And the backups to Milano are trash.
So is anyone starting next to him, at least until further notice.
I'm absurdly concerned about our LB unit. If Milano goes down I'd envision us being a complete defensive hot mess.
On the flip side, and assuming that the OL antes up as it should, our offense has the potential to be a powerhouse and rival for #1.
I suspect that our D will be quite average however which would cost us in the playoffs.
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2 minutes ago, NewEra said:
As you continue to put words in my mouth.
All I did was state that there are others (that actually get paid for their opinion) that view him as potentially elite.
I never said that that was MY opinion. But continue to make things up.
Well, the implications certainly are there. Also, perhaps not making an effort to hammer me rather than actually have a discussion would help. And BTW, you've put some words in my mouth too.
I realize that we're not all in agreement here, but discussion is part of it all. I just love how all the optimists are 100% right tho all the time.
BTW, given your deference towards paid experts, you did imply that, I added more to that last post, but I'll repeat it. I'll leave it for you on these two dots as to how to connect them to whereever you wish.
... here's what he said about Ed Oliver; He's going to be a nightmare for teams to deal with.
That was a good one. I guess he wasn't wrong. He's a nightmare alright. LOL
And according to Jeremiah Epenesa was the "Best Value Pick" in round 2 in 2020. Boy, he's got a real handle on collegiate talent. LOL
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1 hour ago, NewEra said:
No one cares what you think, why do you care what they think? That’s their prerogative if they think he’s going to be a star. You just like to be “that guy”. Grats 👏🏻
Daniel Jeremiah had him as a top 10 player in the draft. Why don’t you get on Twitter and bomb on him? Flex on him with your knowledge. Maybe he’ll hire you as his assistant if he finds you impressive.
OK LOL
I'm sure we could review his "top-10s" in past years and find some interesting things.
You willing to hitch your cred to his rankings now are ya. LOL
You're funny. At least I leave open the possibility that players can beat the odds. Apparently everyone that doesn't pencil him in as the next Gronk doesn't know what they're talking about. ... LMAO
... here's what he said about Ed Oliver; He's going to be a nightmare for teams to deal with.
That was a good one. I guess he wasn't wrong. He's a nightmare alright. LOL
And according to Jeremiah Epenesa was the "Best Value Pick" in round 2 in 2020. Boy, he's got a real handle on collegiate talent. LOL
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3 hours ago, NewEra said:
So like Mark Andrews? So like Travis Kelce?
BTW, Andrews has been Baltimore's primary receiving threat since he's been on the team essentially. They've never had any good WRs since he's been there.
Just sayin'.
2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:Thanks. Keep posting clueless nonsense like this. It helps everyone know the kind of poster they're dealing with. Me, I have no interest in debating anything with you.
I can see why not. LOL
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2 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:
Oh I’m still ticked they took Elam over Hall or Pickens last year but that’s why the draft is so much fun
LOL, it's fun indeed.
But insofar as we go, if anyone is not deserving of any benefits of the doubt, it's Beane.
As with you, I'm miffed that we took Cook over Dean.
I'm not particularly upset with the Kincaid pick, but only because Torrence fell to us in round 2 and no real ILB/MLB was available. But the existing state of the team/roster, now after six drafts, clearly befalls Beane.
Meanwhile, things like the signings of forecasts of impact play by Sherfield and Hasty are interesting given the drafting of Kincaid. So many receivers now and so few balls, namely one, to go around.
Last season only one of our receivers had more than 48 catches. Only three had more than 42. Do all of those players (Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Hasty, Sherfield, Knox, and Kincaid) all make the roster?
Last season all 7 of our non-RB receivers caught a total of 270 balls. Assuming that Diggs gets his normal 110-120, thatw ould leave about 150 for the other 6 such receivers. (WRs and TEs)
I'm just curious where those go.
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1 minute ago, HappyDays said:
You should know that saying things like this, where it is clear to anyone paying attention that you don't have a clue what you're talking about, is a really bad look. I'm sure you don't care. Just wanted you to know.
A bad look?
So you think that keeping a player like that as a backup was a solid move then? ... if that ends up happening. Because that's your implication. I'm not sure that's a good look, but call me crazy. LOL
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1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:
I’ll remember this post and laugh at you around the middle of the season when people are wondering how he dropped that far
This entire thread is going to be fun to save and revisit.
I realize that euphoria runs high this time of year, but some of these expectations and predictions ... LOL
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2 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:
1. He's got Allen throwing to him.
2. We really need a short chain-moving option Kincaid is now it.
3. I would be shocked he Kincaid doesn't get at least 500 yards. And I would not be shocked if he hits 800.
Hopefully Allen's elbow is fully healed, word was that he couldn't throw those short passes very well as a result.
Just sayin'.
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2 hours ago, Allen2Diggs said:
I think Kincaid is treated more like a jumbo slot receiver and Knox will stay in-line and block half the time.
If the defense plays in nickel to put a db on him, I'd move him back in-line and run it. If they put a lb on Kincaid, I'm confident in his ability to get open.
I think 500 yards is realistic if he stays healthy.
500 yards on 10 YPR (slot) is 50 catches. Only one player on our team last season caught 50+ balls.
Only 3 caught more than 42.
Unless Knox is replaced by Kincaid, not sure I see him getting 50+ catches or even close.
And if he does replace Knox, then is it OK to question why Beane just signed Knox to a $52M contract while letting Edmunds go? Asking for a friend.
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6 minutes ago, NewEra said:
Lol…. Yeah man. That’s EXACTLY what I’m saying. In fact. I’m saying that he’s better than both of them. Combined. Good thing you’re so intuitive or you might have missed all of that
And funny tho, isn't it, that quite a few people here are suggesting nearly that.
I think that people should pump the brakes and consider that he didn't exactly load up on stats against players that will end up being starters in the NFL. IMO it's a good thing he skipped the combine, despite it being for his back.
2 minutes ago, FireChans said:Some other good TE rookie years:
Gronk: 42 rec 546 yards 10 TD's
Gonzalez: 33 rec 368 yards 2 TD's
Honestly, it's been a common school of thought that TE's take some time to really develop, and the numbers pretty clearly support that.
And Beane doesn't have time. This is his sixth year product, if we can't win the division and at least advance to the Conference Championship Game, the tough questions need to start being asked, and both fans and media will at least begin to cascade down on them.
You might be young if......
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by PBF81
34:00 minute mark?
If so, doesn't appear that he ever got a foot on the ball. LOL
Another at 1:41:00 ... 12 yards, second of the game he said.