PBF81
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Posts posted by PBF81
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6 minutes ago, MJS said:
How could it plummet to 32nd in the playoffs when there are only 14 teams in the playoffs?
Seriously? It plummets to what would rank DFL in the NFL during the regular season.
There's a reason for it, because it seems to be unique to us. Imagine if our offense did the same.
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15 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:
We know the answer and it has been discussed ad-nauseum. Good QB's will do well against the Bills.
So in essence you're saying that once we get to the playoffs, we can't stop a cold.
Unfortunately that doesn't carry much water. We've allowed 31 ppg in our last 5 playoff games. Against some of the same teams, here are the point totals allowed by the winning teams in the last 10 playoff games this season alone:
17, 24, 14, 20, 7, 10, 12, 20, and 7.
So for some reason all the teams ranked lower than us in defense during the season, somehow, managed to do what we're incapable of doing, ... against the same "good QBs."
Does that make sense to you?
Once again, it has coaching written all over it to me.
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2 hours ago, MJS said:
Yeah, McDermott is so incompetent:
Defensive rankings:
2019: 2nd
2020: 16th
2021: 1st
2022: 2nd
So then why does it plummet in the playoffs to what would essentially rank last? ... 32nd that is.
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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't think comparing how a defense does against playoff teams and then comparing to season averages (which will by their nature include games against good teams and bad teams) is the way to go. It is a poor comparison. Among the 14 playoff teams the Bills D was 4th in ypg, 8th in ppg, 4th on 3rd down, 7th in takeaways.
And to clarify, my position is that ultimately the failures are on the regime just as much as the regular season success is on them. I just don't, yet, get to "fire them." You have to look at the overall body of work, the analytics that underpin the numbers and as yourself is this a regime that deserves firing. I understand why to some people the answer is "yes." But to me it is still "no." It doesn't mean I am accepting mediocrity. It just means I still have belief that they can get the Bills over the hump. You don't produce teams that consistently rank so highly in raw numbers and the more advanced metrics like DVOA by accident. You do that because you are a well run organisation. I get it being well run for 10 years but never getting your hands on the Lombardi would suck. And eventually everyone reaches their frustration breaking point. I'm not there yet.
Well, that's the difference in fan experiences and expectations seemingly.
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53 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:
So Rex was 7-7 his final year (with Tyrod at QB) going into week 16 and a chance for the playoffs. They blew it big time in OT. And Rex is a disaster.
The next year the Bills go 9-7 and get a miracle play from Andy Dalton to make the playoffs and now McD is a genius and a saviour.
The drafted Allen (and yes traded for Diggs) and that has been the difference maker. Nothing else imo.
A team that was the SB favourite struggled much of the second half of the season and many games were downright sloppy. It was good they played vs. Brissett, Wilson, Jones, Fields and others down the stretch. The offense too looked disjointed. Glad you enjoyed the season.
Well, a couple of thoughts here. There are reasons why we were in the running for most dysfunctional team during that stretch. It should hardly be the bar by which future coaches are measured however.
Secondly, is that then the standard, merely "making the playoffs" despite routinely being beaten by the better teams in them, ... while allowing a team led by Skylar Thompson, in our own house, to nearly beat us?
I'm not telling anyone what their standard should be, if that's your standard, then great. Mine's a little higher though, and as I point out, they're not giving us complementary tickets, we're on the paying end of this business relationship. And our expense sheet is about to get a whole lot heavier once that new stadium is built.
Despite this conversation, there is the likely possibility that while perhaps good, again, depending upon definitions, that McD, Beane, Frasier, etc. are not great and not capable of getting us to the Super Bowl much less winning one.
People can argue all they want on this, but that is a looming possibility, and I'm not quite sure what else explains our Defense, the unit that we've by far put the greatest resources into both draft and free-agency, going from 1st or near 1st during the regular season to statistically DFL once we get to the playoffs. It's obviously not the players/roster, because they don't change like that.
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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Overall performance is on the Head Coach and the General Manager. They are the ones who built this flawed roster and they are the ones responsible for some of the flawed strategies that we saw employed.
I am not yet at the point where I am firing a regime that has won 41 games regular and post season in the past 3 years and has strong underpinning analytics to. But they own the failures and there comes a point (and while I think it is slightly reactionary I understand some being there) when those failures in the clutch override all of the analytics and the wins.
I am not for firing coordinators as scapegoats either, consistent with my position. This on Sean and Brandon for good and for bad.
I posted this in another thread about Tim Graham's statements just now ...
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If giving up on Beane and/or McDermott isn't the answer, then what's the question?
What's the standard of Bills football?
After all, the owners surely view it as a business, as do the coaches and players. But the fans aren't allowed to consider it a business too? Again, it' be one thing if they were handing out complimentary tickets to games, but they aren't. And the prices for the new stadium include PSLs (not business?) and skyrocketing ticket prices. Are fans to treat it as charity?
If the standard is the "Last 20 Years," where we've averaged 6.6 Wins since 2000, the first year of our playoff drought, then sure, I suppose it's not the answer.But if reaching and winning a Super Bowl is, then it likely is.
As a refresher, Frasier, who should have been improving during his time here, has allowed over the past 5 playoff games the following average metrics:
31 Points Against us per game
25 Completions per game
40 Passing Attempts per game
... for 279 Passing Yards per game
2.2 Passing TDs per game
4 INTs in all 5 playoff games, all four against NE (2) and MIA (2), none against Cinci or KC
25 carries for 120 Rushing Yards per game
1.2 Rushing TDs/game
388 Total Yards
31 of 63 3rd-Down conversions (49.2%) total in all five games
7 of 8 4th-Down conversions (87.5%) total in all five games
25 1st-Downs per game allowed
2.2 Sacks/game generated
1 Fumble Recovery in all five games
I would imagine that the YPP allowed blows too. Can get that if we really want, but this paints all the picture we need of our illustrious playoff defense.
Going down that list, those numbers would rank as such in regular season stats:
DFL, 31st, DFL, DFL, DFL, 18th, 15th, 27th, 30th, DFL, DFL, DFL, 22nd, and 31st.
So in case it's not obvious, as soon as we've gotten to the playoffs, our defense goes from #1 ranked or near there to NFL worst. That's not McDermott, Beane, or Frasier??
McDermott is obviously a part of that. So is Beane considering that 9 of his 14 day 1 & 2 draft picks have been on defense, and that his last three 1st-rounders were all defense, and 4 of his last 5 1st-rounders defense, with his only non-defense 1st-rounder having been Allen five drafts ago. They've also been D-heavy in free-agency.
So perspective is relevant here. And what's the defense going to be like when, as now, they need to start putting those day 1 & 2 resources to offense?
In short, if the bar is "The Last 20 Years," then there's cause for continued celebration.
If not however, the above defensive performances are never going to get us there. Keep in mind that Frasier has regressed as such, despite, according to him and McBeane, having better talent. Everyone's obviously going to draw their own conclusion.
2 hours ago, Lost said:This particular instance of him clapping was just after his defense gave up a 1st down on 3 and 19.
31 of 63 3rd-Down conversions (49.2%) total in all of our last 5 playoff games
7 of 8 4th-Down conversions (87.5%) total in all of our last five playoff games
25 1st-Downs per game allowed
Those first two would rank DFL during the regular season, and by no small margin.
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Well, now that we have the reason for our inability to make the Super Bowl corrected, ...
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2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:
Folks do realize that in college sacks are considered qb rushing plays, right??
I did not know this, thanks for the heads up.
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2 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:
Beane didn't have to mention it. All anyone had to do was look at him play. Mayock mentioned it on draft day. If you think Beane didn't know that Josh had exceptional athleticism after watching hours & hours of tape because you didn't hear him say anything (which could mean anything, maybe he said something & you just flat out missed it. Do you hear everything he says 24/7? ) you have a pretty poor take.
Maybe, but I don't recall ANY statements about Allen's ability to run, as he has, when they drafted him. Athleticism, yes, but they say that about a lot of QBs. There are a number of incredibly athletic QBs in the league today.
Either way, happy to look at draft statements by Beane about that, I simply don't remember hearing any.
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9 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:
Josh actually averaged more rushes per game in college than he has in the NFL. In his 2016 season he rushed 142 times in 14 games for 523 yards scoring 7 rushing TDs and also caught a pass for a TD, scoring a total of 8 TDs that season. His rushing stats were down his final year, as were most of his stats, but he still averaged over 8 rushes per game. In the NFL his yards per attempt are much higher but so are all his stats compared to his college days.
Yes, I realize that. But he also averaged 3.7 ypc that season. In his Jr. (last) year, that dropped to 2.2 ypc. Meaning that it was most scramble runs for short gains, sneaks, etc. He didn't run like he does now in college.
We've digressed from my original point tho, his rushing ability, which again, is a huge part of his game and defines him to a large extent, is not something that Beane mentioned when alluding to Allen's potential. It was Allen's arm. If we had to rely exclusively on Allen's arm, really more his decision-making (or is it play-calling?), then as a pure pocket passer there's work to do and progress to be made. Most of us here realize that he regressed in that way from '21 to this past season.
I blame it on coaching, i.e., play-calling, the lack of ability of McD to control the flow of the game, among other things. But nonetheless.
Again, having said all that, when healthy, there isn't a QB that I'd rather have than Allen these days. But there's no way Beane knew that he'd be this good.
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1 hour ago, PaulieYayo said:
No, you misunderstood what I said. My question was, would the ESB light up for a Bills championship? If they did it for the stupid Eagles, they better do if for the Bills if we were finally blessed to win a SB
I hear ya, I got it. I bet they would if they're lighting it up for the Eagles.
I was merely putting the shoe on the other foot from a cities perspective. Why is NY/NYC putting up the colors for another city at all.
The geographical proximity between NYC and Philly isn't much different that between Philly and Balt/DC, Pitt and Cleveland, Cinci and Indy, e.g. I don't see any of those places putting up the colors of those teams. It's just weird I thought.
We're on the same sheet, just two different angles.
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6 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:
The Bills spent hours watching tape of Allen's college career. Of course they knew about his ability to run. If the guys on the broadcast the day of the draft knew it, so did the Bills. Go to 1:25 mark of the video where Mayock talks about his athleticism & says "quarterback counter, quarterback power, quarterback keep, they ran it all day long"
I didn't hear one word ever from Beane about Allen's rushing ability.
But you're overlooking the point here, sure, Allen ran some at Wyoming, but it wasn't to the extent that he has here.
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7 hours ago, PaulieYayo said:
No, the ESB
Right, which is in NYS. So would Philly light up their city for the Bills?
Obviously not. So why is NYC lighting theirs up for the Eagles. Let Philly light up their own city. ... probably shouldn't say that too loudly. LOL
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7 minutes ago, PaulieYayo said:
Would they do it for the Bills? The only true New York team?
Would Philly do it for the Bills?
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It's a good thing he has a girlfriend.
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11 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:
Beane is a great GM based on the Josh Allen pick alone. The way he had the foresight & ability (and balls) to maneuver his way into the top 10 to draft a project QB who likely be a first ballot HOFer when it’s all said and done is super impressive. It’s not an accidental pick that felt into his lap like Brady, this was a chess move acquiring picks a year in advance to get his guy. BB made the Bills contenders again after nearly 2 decades of failure. It’s not his fault Von Miller got inured and Frazier’s scheme is crap. I want to see what an aggressive & innovative coordinator can do w/ this defense.
Here's my response to that take, when they drafted Allen no one said a word about his ability to run. All they talked about was his ability to make any pass.
Point being, his running/scrambling is a HUGE part of his game. Beane didn't forecast that, so let's not give him credit for it. That part of it was luck for him, Beane that is. And don't get it wrong, he'd still get credit for Allen's arm, but honestly, take away Allen's ability to extend plays, run, etc., and that's several fewer wins every season. To be blunt, Allen's hardly the best pocket-passer in the league straight up. And I love Allen, I wouldn't take anyone else. He's very bright too and has every intangible that anyone could want.
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9 hours ago, cba fan said:
w Frazier philosophy on D Bills will never win a SB under him. You could not even see DB's in picture on Bengal pass plays.
I ran the numbers over the past four seasons for Frasier's Defense in the playoffs. Here are the per-game averages over those 8 games:
24 for 38 for 272 Yards, 1-3/4 TDs, 5/8 INT allowed
28 carries for 132 Yards, 1 Rushing TD allowed
389 Total Net Yards allowed
25.5 Points Allowed (31 PPG allowed the last 5 games, so Frasier isn't learning anything)
24 1st-Downs allowed
2.75 Sacks
1 Fumble Recovery every 4 games
7 of 14 3rd-Down Conversions allowed
60% (9 of 15 in all 8 games) 4th-Down Conversions allowed
That's very bad.
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9 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:
The window for the ultra athletic running version of Josh is 5 years. The pocket passer version should be good till 35/36ish. And if these coaches refuse to get him OL help, those numbers all decrease.
AND, we'll be incredibly lucky if he doesn't sustain a serious injury behind this OL and until they get it corrected. It's so bad, and with Morse a week to week proposition at this point, it's hardly a one offseason project, particularly with sparse resources.
Beane has relied upon the NFL's bargain basement of 1-2 year low-end free-agent signees. Now he's having to deal with his negligence.
Should be interesting to say the least.
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20 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:
If you compare the Bills drafting to other teams in the past 5 seasons it is pretty solid.
What they are absolutely atrocious at is free agency.
In the last two years Doug Whaley was employed they signed an NFL DPOY candidate(Lorax) and NFL leading tackler(Zach Brown) for near league minimum and then Hyde and Poyer to exceptional value deals.
The only bargain they've gotten in UFA since Beane has been in charge is one year of Daryl Williams cheap.
They have literally overpaid, gotten virtually nothing or occasionally got what they paid for from every other UFA they've brought in.
It's very hard to be as inefficient with salary cap dollars as Beane has............and this is AFTER he set a then NFL record for dead money created in the 2018 offseason with the McBeane culture cleanse.
This team should easily be $50M under the salary cap entering this offseason...........in which case the drafts look a bit more palatable.
We're not talking about other teams except for the best. I'd be willing to wager that if we compare the Drafts for Philly, SF, Cinci, and KC that we'd be worse. There's also a large degree of subjectivity in how someone views the draft. For purposes of our brief discussion, I'll define mine as the necessity of having to get impact starters from your 1st and 2nd round picks, and at minimum solid depth or strong role-playing from your 3rd rounders and early day-3 picks.
Here are our 1st and 2nd rounders on Beane's ticket:
2018: Allen (1st) & Edmunds (1st), the latter a trade up.
2019: Oliver (9th overall) and Ford (early 2nd)
2020: Epenesa (2nd)
2021: Rousseau (1st) & Basham (2nd)
2022: Elam (1st) & Cook (2nd)
Granted, how they're used and how often are relevant, but now we're talking about McD/Coaching being an issue. It's a pick your poison kinda thing.
Either way, which of those players besides Allen do you consider to be impact players? I don't consider any of them to be.
The best are probably Oliver and Edmunds, neither of whose 5th years were picked up, which is telling there. Ford's gone, Cook was a luxury pick and there's nothing in his collegiate dossier besides being related to Dalvin that suggests that he's an impact starter at his position. He was drafted for his ability to catch out of the backfield, oddly the same reason we trade for Hines. Cook has an unimpressive Catch%. Rousseau, since Von Miller went down has been pedestrian. Almost all of his releavant stats came against two teams with pedestrian offenses, the Jets and Pats, and struggling QBs. He's not an impact player.
I'm pretty certain that if we look at the 1st/2nd rounders of all the playoff teams this season, we'll find that they all drafted better than we did in that regard.
Oh, and BTW, our 3rd rounders on Beane's watch ...
Harrison Phillips
Singletary
Knox
Moss
Spencer Brown
Bernard
Phillips is gone and like so many of our other castoffs is playing better elsewhere.
Singletary's gone now.
Knox is good for a 3rd.
Moss bust and gone.
Brown, not good.
Bernard, jury's out I suppose, at best.
I'm open to discuss which parts of that render Beane good at drafting.
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6 minutes ago, Chaos said:
can't as in haven't. Not dismissing the future possibilty of creating a consistent passing pocket.
Fair enough, but does anything in the organization now, after 6 years of McD being here and 5 Beane orchestrated Drafts suggest to you that this is in the offing?
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BTW, there have been some games, not a lot, but where he's been a fantastic pocket passer. But he's not like Mahomes or Burrow in that regard.
Remember, when they drafted Allen all they talked about was his huge/strong arm, and ability to make any throw. No one ever mentioned any potential for him to run as he did, not once. So that's gravy, unearned gravy, for Beane and to a lesser extent McD.
But here's the thing on "the ability to make any throw," he shouldn't be ignoring the higher percentage throws regularly in favor of "any throw." This isn't a video game. That's what I'm referring to when I talk about coaching as it relates to him and a methodology in terms of running the offense.
And if it ever got to a point where the coaches were desperately trying to get him to hit that underneath and short/medium higher percentage stuff and he was simply ignoring them, that'd be a whole other discussion. I don't think that's where we are tho. Do you?
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2 minutes ago, Chaos said:
We don't know how good of a pocket passer he could be. We can't coach up a pocket.
Sure you can. Do you believe that our OL was coached as well as it could have been? I don't. In fact, I don't have any faith that ANY unit on our team has been optimally coached.
Having said that, I understand what you're saying, but part of my point, a big part, is that the talent on the team around him, or even on D as the team goes, in this specific discussion the OL, makes a huge difference. Again, as you know.
We do know that in the instances where he has had time in the pocket, he's still made questionable decisions, routinely ignored the higher percentage underneath stuff that log 1st Downs and keep the chains moving. Just sayin'.
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9 minutes ago, Chaos said:
Ten years is based on this supposition.
FWIW I agree with you.
On Allen, my point is twofold.
First, that his running/scrambling/etc. is a huge part of his game. As a pure pocket passer in contrast, frankly, I'd rather have Burrow, or even Mahomes.
Secondly, implied, that he doesn't have the OL to be able to play to that level as a pure pocket passer. That's due to the GM/HC deficiencies here contrasted with there and elsewhere, at least the four teams that are playing today.
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3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
You won't find a bigger Josh Allen fan than me, but I have totally lost faith in the coaching to find that outcome. They are in the process of Cam Newtoning him.
Or more likely getting him injured so that he's a fraction of the player he was after 18 months (if lucky if that were to occur) of rehab.
PSA: This is Sean McDermott's defense, not Leslie Frazier's
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by PBF81
Agreed ... and to add some additional perspective, KC has allowed 20 points in both of its playoff games, the Eagles have allowed 7 points in both of theirs, a 13.5 ppg average between them. We allowed 27 and 31, and 31 to a team with a third-string QB, for an average of 29, over twice their average.
Scroll down to Playoff Results ...
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/