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PBF81

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Posts posted by PBF81

  1. 12 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

    Gonna be a long and pretty mediocre season imo. I do not believe they'll make the playoffs.

     

    Haven't been less excited for a season since like 2016

     

    That seems to be leaning on the dramatic side, no?  

     

    It seems more like 2019 without the ease of schedule that propelled us to 9 wins.  At the same time it's a seasoned Allen, not a breakout Allen.  The division should be more difficult despite the fact that it was Brady's last season in NE then.  NE and the Jets will both be better and they both beat us once with NE having nearly beaten us twice.  

     

    The biggest issue seems to be that we're orchestrating the offense as if we have some game manager QB when we have Allen.  

     

    It makes little sense.  

     

     

    • Like (+1) 2
  2. 13 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

    Previously you offered to recap your drop passes (game and play).  Please do that, I'd like to see how you're getting such a high drop rate

     

     

    I've provided much of the information you've asked for already.  

     

    I have not gone through gbg and detailed them.  As stated, I will, but when I have time.  

     

    I will try to remember to ping you when I do.  I'm actually going to splice the video together for all of them.  

     

    Also, as I've stated, "drops" are subjective.  There is no metrics criteria for drops insofar as I know.  But the video is the video, and if you've watched it then you've watched it.  I'll tell you what though, before I get to that whenever that is, why don't you ping us all on what you consider to be anything beyond routine catches.  I think I counted three.  It would be far easier to do that.  

     

     

    • Like (+1) 1
  3. 10 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

    You call dropped passes simple facts?

     

    Again you use stats, but adjust to fit your agenda.  Not always, but on some key topics. 

     

    It's hard to take you seriously when you write 8 paragraphs, some of it is real good data/analysis, but one third to half is biased.

     

    Then you use that to prove overall points about what direction this team is going.  So yeah, in the end, you're using biased data to form your overall conclusion.

     

    Did you watch the video? 

     

    It's facts, visual facts.  I'm guessing that you did not. 

     

    So far one person admittedly has, and that person's assessment was downgraded as a result.  Not as a result of my words or anything that I said, but as a result of their own visual sensibilities.  

     

    Stop making this about me and get over yourself.  It's obvious that you don't like me, so deal with it.  

     

    Otherwise, LOL, do you have any idea of how much "bias" there is here, or anywhere for that matter.  

     

    That was a pretty funny statement.  

     

     

  4. 7 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

    Your data is biased and a judgment in many occasions.  

     

    I've brought this up when you were talking about Keons "drops" in another thread.

     

    You don't consider his QB was wildly inaccurate at times and often very slow to anticipate throws (waited far too long and the defender got there to break it up).  Those were drops in your book.

     

    Again, like another poster mentioned, you spend time finding stats that support your "opinion", and at various times spin those to confirm your point.

     

    That's called confirmation bias, for any statistical nerds on here.  I'm a big stat guy, majored in advanced statistics/actuarial science, also have coaching background and know what I'm looking at.  Not to say you're incapable. 

     

    But you seem incapable of looking at things from a "fair" standpoint/zero bias.  You make your opinion and find stats to prove why you're right.

     

    Back to actual football talk, here's cliff notes for you:

    1. Brady (or Brady vs Dorsey): no install LY, full offseason to put his scheme in play = no judgment to make yet (although he did call solid games against Cowboys, Philly, KC to name a few).  Can't compare to anyone else until he installs his system

     

    2. Coleman: no pro experience.  His college "drops"/tape aren't near as bad as you've portrayed them.  I'm not listing stats, because this will turn into a debate on what you "define as catchable", which I strongly disagree with you on.

     

    3. McD/Beane plan at WR and skill positions: plan is clear as day to me.  Find more reliable/higher catch rate options.  Better with YAC.  More versatile slot/outside.  Better in intermediate passing game.  Bigger targets/improved 50-50 pass options.  Improve our backup RB position- if you watch Davis "all touches" film, he is a better prospect than Moss IMO.  Quicker feet, great vision/agility.  Pass game he is very similar to Moss, again more elusive IMO.

     

    4. Others I could discuss, if you want

     

    You come across as pessimistic on some key offseason decisions from the front office/lacking confidence in McD and Beane in general.  Again, just letting your feelings get in the way (past <> future/2024 results).

     

    This might have some meaning if you didn't disagree with so much of what's in my posts, often simply facts.  

     

     

  5. 4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

    You don’t understand how depth works I see. 
     

    Ok. I’ll play along. What is your solution for an experienced WR4 with size and speed that cost 2 million? Lets see if they suck or not.

     

    The point is that to much of being of this signing.  He may not even make the roster.  He ask day caused problems in KC this past season.  

     

    Reminds me of our Sherfield signing. 

     

    BTW, the Sherfield signing is an outstanding example of how the majority is usually correct or your earlier statement.  Just sayin' ...

     

     

  6. 5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

    He’s not replacing Davis. He’s depth. Cheap depth, if he makes the team.

     

    We can’t go back in time to the draft and take a 2nd WR. I would love to trade for someone cheap and young for the 4th spot. 

     

    He sucks.  ... whatever his role.  Simply bc he played for KC doesn't make him better than he is.  

     

     

  7. 6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

    If the vast majority of people here agree on something, it's likely to be true.

     

    I couldn't possibly disagree more with that.  🙂

     

    But yes, your very much into onto something re: the emotions vs. reality angle.  

     

     

    3 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

     

    Thanks for the very thoughtful discussion.

     

    I see your point on Cook but 13 rush attempts is not much but he did seem to run the same play a lot.  In contrast, Allen's pass attempt numbers serve as evidence that Brady did adapt game to game though of course game situation matters:

     

    NYJ 32,  PHI 51,  KC 42, DAL 15, SD 21,  NE 30, MIA 38, PIT 30, KC 39

     

    He clearly adapted the game plan for the Dallas defense and then tried the same thing against the Chargers but it didn't work.  Defintiely not sold on Brady yet but at least he finished strong with a coherent game plan against the Chiefs.

     

     

    We do tend to get up for big games.  Consider however that we lost to some real crap teams and played several others nearly losing.  

     

     

  8. 7 hours ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

    Davis wasn't coming back for $1M🤣, which is the point.

     

    My point was that everyone grows about him when he was cheap.  Now we're talking about taking on a lesser version of him at greater expense.  

     

    It's not complicated here.  🙂

     

     

    7 hours ago, That&#x27;s No Moon said:

    He's also significantly cheaper than Davis.

     

    OK, so I Guess everyone works be happy.  🙄

     

     

    • Eyeroll 1
  9. 1 hour ago, Brand J said:

    That guy was dropping passes all year, even had a reporter asking him “whats wrong?” In the playoffs he made some tough catches. The WR needy Chiefs moved on, I don’t think we should pursue him.

     

    50.3% career catch%.  LOL  50.0% this past season.  

     

    Funny, we boot Davis and some want an even worse WR re: drops and catch% and with no particularly consistent skillset.  

     

     

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Thank you (+1) 1
  10. 7 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

     

    I only watched it once, and it sounds like my numbers were a little bit off.

     

    Like you, I noticed a lot of completions on short passes. Passes which would be very easy for a normal person to catch. I noticed those passes more later in the video than I did early on. Sometimes, if an OC is having trouble generating production for a particular WR through the normal method, he can resort to stuff like that as a way of getting the ball in the WR's hands. I'm not saying that's what happened here, but it is a possibility.

     

    The primary effect of me watching that video was to significantly lower my expectations of Coleman. Is that a good thing? If Coleman goes on to become a quality starter for the Bills, we'll all be happy. Sometimes, the check in the mailbox that you weren't expecting makes you happier than the check you knew was coming. If on the other hand Coleman is destined to be the next James Hardy, perhaps it's best to get my disappointment out of the way now instead of later.

     

    The counterargument to that is: life is short. If, for a time, you can make it just a bit more pleasant with high hopes for Coleman, why take that away?

     

    I don't know if Coleman will be good or bad, and I don't know if it makes sense to have high expectations of him or low. All I know is I was unimpressed with what I saw in the video.

     

    I guess I don't take "reality" as hard as some do.  Your statements were insightful in that way.  

     

    For me the analysis is just as much fun.  

     

    Consider however, you said that life is short, but Allen's career is even shorter.  

     

     

  11. 13 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

    I did not remove the special team and defensive touchdowns.

     

    My feeling is with such a limited data set, removing too much would make it hard to draw any relevant conclusions.  Also, I feel that the offense was actually doing fairly well in the Jets game until all the interceptions happen.  In any case, if you pick and choose what to remove, you can come to any conclusion one wants. 

     

    The only reason why I split Dorsey's games into 4/6 is because I felt that those 6 games were what people are comparing to when they say Brady was much better than Dorsey.

     

    I agree. The offense was still up and down even with Brady as OC.  I was expecting the Bills to roll over the Chargers and Patriots in must win games and that obviously didn't happen.  The defense was also inconsistent, they should have ate up the Chargers and Patriots backups QBs.

     

    I agree.  A lot of the improvement in the offense came about because Allen was running so much more under Brady than Dorsey.  One thing I liked about Brady is that he did seem to be more willing to adjust game to game than Dorsey was.  

     

    The Miami game, the Bills dominated.  I have no criticism of how they played against the Dolphins. Sometimes you are just unlucky. Crap happens.

     

    Almost every team goes through lulls.  The Bills seem to last longer but maybe it only feels that way because we are  more personally invested.   In any case,  I agree that we don't know how Brady is going to do this coming season.  I am pretty neutral.    When Daboll left, most people expressed a lot of confidence in Dorsey and many thought he was going to be an upgrade.

     

    There is some disconnect between Beane and the OC (or perhaps its Allen) about pass catching running backs.  Beane has been signing pass catching RBs since he got here, from TJ Yeldon onwards.  However, the Bills offense has steadfastly refused to use them.

     

    Definitely not happy that the success of the Bills offense might need to have four receivers (Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir and Coleman) exceeding their production in any previous season.  There was a few posts from last off-season saying that the Bills receiving corp would be the best ever because Sherfleld, and Hardy were going to have career years since they would be working with Allen and Dorsey would have more experience. 

     

     

    Thanks, and where I disagree is in that first bolded part, at least somewhat.  After our Dallas game, he kept running Cook, 20, then 16, then 13 times/game, when Cook's average was beyond pedestrian, it was pathetic.  It's nothing surprising that Cook's not a season-long 20 carry/game type, but we kept running him despite the lack of production.  The team took a lot of heat for it right here even.  Same in the playoffs where his production was low-end from a ypc perspective.  

     

    But now we're crossing over into the decision to "become faster" while ditching Sing/Moss and make Cook the focus, without any inkling as to whether or not he would be up for the rigors of a full season like that.  Obviously he wasn't.  So now apparently they're abandoning that track and going to more of a power-running game then?  

     

    Which gets us to your second bolded part.  Yes, there is obviously a disconnect between our drafts and the use of our drafted players, at least somewhat and on offense in particular.  

     

    There are also some disconnects in how to properly utilize Allen, which is obvious as this point.  But the one thing that isn't right is simply throwing everything on Allen's shoulders come playoff time because we have no one capable of orchestrating optimal utilization of the players that we do have on offense.  

     

     

  12. 6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

    Okay, that was depressing. I just finished watching the video and reading the article. First, the numbers. I counted 94 targets for Coleman, with 58 catches. A 62% catch rate. Also four drops, and one fumble after the catch.  Coleman's non-catches were usually because of a defender being right there, breaking up the pass. Also Coleman's QB, Travis, threw a decent share of inaccurate passes. If a pass was far from Coleman, I didn't count it against his targets. From the article: "[Coleman] caught only 22.7% of his contested targets in 2023." That was consistent with my subjective impression. There were times when Coleman made impressive contested catches. But far more often, when a defender was right there with Coleman, that defender was able to use his athleticism to break up the pass.

     

    I counted 52 catches on 92 targets.  I watched every one at least twice and annotated the particulars of the play.  Where he was when he caught the ball or when it was thrown to him, how many yards the play (and YAC by formula) he got, etc.  The officials on him are 50 catches, so I'll have to go back game by game to see where I was off.  

     

    But the point was not to depress you.  LOL  The point is to try to close the gap between reality and fantasy, the latter of which is quite often if not typically disguised as a narrative.  

     

    But your observations line up with mine.  But the narrative is what, it's that he's tough in traffic, can catch contested balls, great hands, etc.  I didn't see that and from your post it doesn't sound as if you did either.  That article I read almost immediately after the Draft, and while it's someone else's research, sites like PFF typically do at least a halfway decent job on theirs.  I originally watched the video and thought to myself, 'wow, that's a lot of bubble screens and other screens and gadget plays that don't typically line up with a draft pick at the round 1/2 break.  (aka late round 1, first in round 2)  So I decided to catalog every play.  Upon doing so it added, not detracted, to my concerns.  

     

    As you say, there were a few times where Coleman made "Wow!" plays, I count three of those, and several others where he made a good, albeit not particularly unusual catch in coverage.  (aka traffic)  But I saw absolutely nothing on the plus side of average there, to the contrary in fact.  

     

     

    6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

    After watching a player, you get a subjective feel for him. This is purely my opinion, but my feel for Coleman was that there was nothing special there. Let's say you're using a scale from 1 - 10. If a guy is special as a college player, you label him a 9 or a 10. If he's a JAG, maybe you label him a 3. On a scale like that, I'd put Coleman at about a 5. A step up from a JAG, to where you'd say he was better than average for a college WR. But just watching him, it's not as though I ever thought, this guy's star shines so brightly, he's clearly got a great career waiting for him at the next level.

     

    By no means am I writing Coleman off. If he improves, particularly with his route running, he could be a solid player for the Bills. That being said . . . if we had to do that draft over again, and if I was the one making the call, I'd take Ladd McConkey.

     

    As you realize, I agree with you on that assessment in your first para.  I suppose that he could be the next Andre Johnson in fact, but I suspect that he'll be closer to the late James Hardy whom we drafted at 41st in '08.  We will see.  No amount of discussion here will alter that outcome.  But where I'm largely thrown is that if your a team interested in him, particularly in reaching for him before almost all of the draft profiles on him had him going later than that, then wouldn't you have watched, at mimimum, the content in that video?  Yet, we're expected to believe that they did and that he was their guy.  Well OK, but consider, about half of those 50 plays on which he caught balls, simply don't work well in the NFL for a player of his stature.  Of the otehr half his completion percentage is so low that it begs criticism.  

     

    And of the single biggest asset they claimed about him upon drafting him, was his ability to catch contested balls.  But as you essentially corroborated, he was problematic in tight coverage, aka "contested passes," that from the "eye test" from watching every pass reception of his.  PFF does a fantastic job of putting the math behind it in contrast with the other drafted WRs.  

     

    And while I may have not traded down with Carolina and gone with Legette, both Legette and McConkey add a dimension to our offense that presently is not there.  What does Coleman add?  Nothing that we do not already have.  

     

     

    6 hours ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

    3 catches on 8 targets, for 21 yards, means someone messed up. That's 2.6 yards per pass attempt: a truly abysmal result. If you see a number like that, sometimes the culprit is the QB, for throwing inaccurate passes. Other times it's the WR, for not catching passes he should have caught. But I don't know how the culprit could be the offensive coordinator. If Diggs is lined up in the backfield or running sweeps, that shouldn't push his catch percentage below 50%, right? You reach a point where the QB throws the ball, and the WR catches it. Or doesn't catch it, in the particular case of Diggs.

     

    It's a lot of things, but all targets are not catchable balls.  

     

    But the point was look at where they were playing Diggs.  It's far from where he's been playing throughout his career, under Brady that is.  The question is why?  

     

    OK, so let's suppose that it's true, the narrative that is, that he's lost a step, what, that means that he plays in the backfield or close to it most of the time?  Wouldn't he be relying on his "step" for YAC in those situations.  It's a rhetorical question, but the whole thing stinks, and given how the team has lied to us repeatedly, it raises more questions than it answers.  

     

     

    • Like (+1) 1
  13. 1 hour ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

     

    No WR can control the number of targets he gets. But he can control his catch %, at least up to a point. I suspect Diggs may have experienced a decrease in his catch % as the season progressed. What I do know for sure is that in the playoff loss, Diggs had 3 catches on 8 targets, for 21 yards. Clearly, the reason for the low production in that game was the low catch %, rather than any lack of targets.

     

    Well yeah, but also where they were playing him.  I just watched the KC playoff game and there were times when he was lined up in the backfield and even ran a sweep.  I mean really?  Most of the time he appeared to be a decoy, but I only saw a few deep routes.  

     

    Either way, if you're interested in his game-by-game catch %, they're all in his game logs.  

     

     

    1 hour ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

    While Allen is a great QB, he sometimes overthrows or underthrows deep passes. But that weakness of Allen's is not new, and shouldn't cause a change in Diggs' stats. 

     

    Well, at least one of the passes (aka targets) wasn't anywhere near catchable.  The others weren't all on the highlight video.  

     

     

    1 hour ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

    It sounds like your analysis of Coleman was far more in-depth than what I've done. Your more pessimistic view of him could well be correct. My guy was Ladd McConkey, and I was sad when the Bills didn't take him at 33.

     

    Thanks, and I'd be incredibly interested in your take after watching the video.  Here it is if you've got 22 minutes.  If you do watch it, take note as to how many passes he touches that you consider to be catchable, particularly given the narrative that he's hands in traffic, aka "contested catches."  

     

    I was simply hoping that we'd draft a WR capable of flying, if for no other reason than to give us a dimension to our passing game that it now appears we do not have.  

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOA_jjDOCr4&t=11s

     

    I also read this piece which counters the narrative and is well supported and supports the points that I've made.  In fact it was one of my sources of info.  https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-florida-state-keon-coleman-polarizing-wide-receiver-prospect  

     

     

    1 hour ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

    One thing I will say in Samuel's defense. He didn't exactly have All World QB play, so that's going to push down his completion % through no fault of his own.

     

    Well no, but he did have QBs the last couple of seasons that weren't bad at the high-percentage stuff that he's suited to.  He had more targets this and last season than everyone on our team except for Diggs in '23 and Diggs and Davis in '22.  

     

    Remember, the areas where Samuel runs routes are not Allen's strong suit.  Allen's pretty average if even that in that high-percentage short-medium game.  That means a lot of QBs are better than he is there.  

     

    Again, would love to get your opinion on that Coleman every pass video.  

     

     

    • Sad 1
  14. 19 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

     

    I think there's plenty of blame to go around for that. I start with Diggs. He played well in September and October, but his play significantly declined as the season progressed. That's something largely outside of Joe Brady's control, which is going to make him look bad through no fault of his own. Also, Brady was using someone else's playbook.

     

    That said . . . I think there was an opportunity for Brady to do a better job than what we saw. If your #1 WR is no longer catching the ball, then maybe focus more on the guys who were catching it, such as Kincaid and Shakir. But that wasn't what happened.

     

    I hear ya.  As you likely know, I'm of the mindset that Diggs was more a product of Brady's use of him than of anything else.  We're expected to believe that from the Cincy game on 11/5 to the Jets game on 11/19, a mere two weeks, that Diggs "lost a step" to the extent that his production was halved.  My sensibilities don't allow for such drastically unprecedented drop in performance barring some major injury.  

     

    Also, as I've pointed out to others, it's Brady's use of Diggs.  A great example is the nfl.com highlight reel for the week 18 @ Fins game.  In that game Diggs had his man beaten twice, once badly with Allen overthrowing him in a big way on a deep fly.  That would have been a TD and his stats would have reflected that.  There was another deep throw that he caught, but it was underthrown, and had Allen not underthrown it, it would have been a TD too.  

     

    On a bunch of other plays you can see Diggs running shorter routes near, or even behind, the LoS, while numerous other WRs run the deeper stuff.  So it's not like he even has a chance on those plays.  

     

    But the point is that if he truly lost a step, then it should have been and would have been most evident as more time passes, namely the last game of the season.  But it was obviously not the case in that game.  So that kind of stuff is suspect as well.  

     

     

    19 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

    You look at the Dallas game. The Cowboys defense was selling out against the pass, while daring the Bills to beat them with the run. You run it all day long against a defense like that. Which is what Brady did. Fine. He did the right thing. But then in subsequent games, he went run heavy when there was no particular reason to do so. It's one thing to run the ball all day when your running game is lighting it up, as it did against Dallas. It's another thing to run the ball all day when your running game looks like James Cook up the middle for a 2 yard gain.

     

    There's complete agreement there, but consider, the fact that we're even talking about it like that is troubling.  What, professional football coaches can't figure that out?  It's common sense.  Hell, even the announcers reference it sometimes.  Ergo, questions need to start being asked.  Was that Brady's inability to see through that, or was he being forced/coerced into that?  Those on the critical side of the fence have our suspicions, those on the other can't possibly fathom the notion.  There's some other reason, right.  

     

     

    19 minutes ago, Rampant Buffalo said:

    I'm not writing Brady off, but I'm not sold on him either. With an offseason to prepare, with more reliable pass catchers for our WR corps, and with the chance to create his own playbook, hopefully we see a little more creativity from him this season.

     

    Well, to start, it doesn't really matter what we think anyway, we simply discuss.  :) 

     

    I'm not entirely writing Brady off either, but at the same time my sensibilities, rooted in reality, cannot allow me to insist that things improved with him over Dorsey, for the reasons stated in our exchange prior to this.  The numbers don't lie, try as some may to get them to.  LOL  It's also pretty evident that McDefense has his MO, but it's hardly building around Allen, which then necessarily questions an OC that is under McD's thumb.  

     

    As a result, and given that Brady was a familiarity hire and at best is an OJT OC, it doesn't bode well for him, particularly now with Diggs and Davis gone.  And BTW, it was Davis that caught a 57-yard TD in the Chargers game w/o which we would have lost.  

     

    What you said about him being creative is going to be the key to the offense this season.  We don't have A+ talent at the skill positions.  He'll have to find a way to have the sum-of-the-parts end up being more than the whole.  I'd be surprised if he with his limited experience can do that.  Pleasantly, nonetheless.  

     

    I would also question whether we actually have more reliable pass catchers.  Coleman's the big add there and I'm simply not seeing it in his "every pass" video that I'm in the process of editing down for both the good and the bad.  I don't think that any honest person watching that video would disagree.  Same for Samuel whose career Catch% is 65.4%, which is well below average, particularly for a WR whose career YPR is 10.7 and very much in the target area for the high-percentage shorter passing game.  His Success% is also below average, and so is Coleman's last season at FSU.  There's far too much hype over him as well.  But the contrary narrative has formed, so now we're in the 8th time's the charm mode with him.  As an analyst I have no choice but to go with the odds there.  I also can't get too excited over Hollins, a WR that's averaged slightly over 1 catch/game and 17.8 receiving yards/game with 10 total TDs in a 7 year career.  Not to mention that he's on his fourth team in as many years.  Harty's profile in terms of production was similar although they're two different type of WRs, we saw how big of a factor he was.  

     

    Anyway, we'll have to disagree on reliability.  Who knows if we've lost much, but objectively there's not much there to suggest greater reliability.  

     

    I know it's easy to get all whooped up this time of year, during Camp and in preseason, but realities are realities.  In order for all of this improvement to play out, McD has to back off of breathing down Brady's neck;  if that were to happen, we'd need Brady, a first time OC, to figure out how to be creative enough to overcome the better coached defensive teams in the league;  we'd need Samuel to make a pretty sizeable leap in production and reliability, one that heretofore in seven seasons to date;  and Coleman will have to do what he didn't do at FSU and in circumstances other than what he was primarily involved in while there.  

     

    Believing that all of that will come together for the positive is a pretty substantial and blind leap of faith.  

     

     

    27 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

    I think he's more than that. Can also catch and block i heard somewhere :)

    beat me to it.

     

    Yes, I realize that.  But the context was in his primary use as a short-yardage back in terms of another suggesting his optimal use.  

     

    Moss was the same, with superior collegiate accolades in both, and we see how much and how they used him.  Will it be a repeat?  

     

    If it is, why would anyone assume that a similar RB with a lesser draft profile, and quite frankly with largely uncoachable weaknesses, would excel in such a role?  

     

     

  15. 21 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

    I never said if that's all Davis is that that is good value. I just said we could still be "fast" with Cook as the primary guy.

    Cook is in year three. if it's a 60/40 split (either way) and Davis is the feature back in 3 years, I'm good with that. If he's just a role player, then no, a 4th for just a short yardage back is not good value.


    LIsten, I'm not saying it was a great draft. I hope it is. I hope Coleman becomes a number one but if he is a good number 2 that's acceptable. If he's less than a good number 2, it's a failure. I don't think we've done enough for Josh over the years and I hope this team takes a big step forward — beating good teams in the playoffs and challenging for a Super Bowl — and if not I'm in favor of a new regime. I don't want this regime to go another 4 years without challenging seriously for a Super Bowl. For me, one to two more years, tops.

     

    Oh yeah, not arguing anything like that, again, more discussing the team's stated approach over the past couple of seasons and the inconsistencies therein.  

     

    Nothing disagreeable there generally speaking.  I simply don't see that if they didn't use Singletary or Moss in that regard, or even properly per their skillsets, why Davis would fit the bill when his strengths coming out in the draft aren't even what theirs were.  

     

    nfl.com has Davis penciled in for a backup RB w/ a chance of becoming a starter.  That doesn't really seem to help us given our pattern of underutilizing or mis-utilizing the talents of players on offense as it is.  PFF has him possibly being a starter for a downhill rushing team.  That's not our identity, or hasn't been as of yet.  LOL  If we make that our identity, LOL, then I'm pretty sure that the fans and media will be asking tons of questions.  

     

    As to Davis the prospect, one of the first things I've always looked for in trying to determine future value, is to what extent a player's weaknesses can be coached into that player.  Davis' weaknesses don't appear to be of that nature, generally speaking.  

     

    But you're right, maybe this draft for us turns out to be the best for any team since 2000.  Who knows.  But the equal if not better odds exist that it'll more mimic our drafts from '18 thru '21.  Who cannot easily envision Coleman doing a combination James Hardy/Watkins, Bishop developing into an above-average starter, Carter becoming a good but not great much less elite DT, and Davis going the way of Sing/Moss.  If that happens, what good would it have done for Allen and the offense.  

     

    It would be good for the team to claim an identity however and stick to that.  Why that identity isn't surrounding Allen and therefore doing everything reasonably possible to facilitate that is to the frustration of quite a few people.  Instead, going into this season it's D, rushing, and the associated "complimentary football" all while shifting from, presumably given the evidence, from a speed to a power rushing team.   A lot of people don't think that makes much sense, or for sure not the most sense.  

     

     

    • Like (+1) 1
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  16. 35 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

    We clearly just don’t mesh in opinion.  I have a stats background but I don’t spend a ton of time trying to get into the weeds of things because the Bills are entertainment to me.  So I’ll just refrain from comment now.  If you don’t see that a blanket statement suggesting the team has no plan on offense is silly then there’s no sense attempting to converse.

     

    Go Bills!

     

    LOL, yes, clearly, but for different reasons.  

     

    They're entertainment to me as well, but so are stats, so they're of equal entertainment to me.  

     

    Otherwise, yes, probably best for neither of us to debate on these topics with each other.  :) 

     

    Go Bills!!  

     

     

  17. 4 minutes ago, mrags said:

    I was in New Orleans a few years ago for the Thanksgiving game. Near the top. Probably 20-30 rows from the last seat in the house. Boy were they steep. I was worried walking up the steps. Walking down them. And god forbid if I stood up with any sort of quickness I would have tumbled for 8 minutes until my lifeless body hit the turf on the Bills sideline. 
     

    not to mention we were so far away you could barely make out numbers on the jerseys. Not a pleasurable experience imo. 

    I would take any one of these seats as reasonable options. It’s the last one you listed that makes me curious. Because as some have said that have been to the experience. They are currently in the 200-300s now and the club seats that are covered and heated are going for way more than this. Triple these prices. So I’m wondering if there is some other options coming? Or if they have vastly increased the prices (triple) from the survey. 

     

    Yeah, agreed.  I also won't believe anything that Legends puts out.  They're not "Buffalo," have no affinity for the region, and probably don't care at all about WNY-ers.  Why would they.  

     

    It will be much more interesting once they've gone through a majority of STHs and put out info as to how many of the new seats & PSLs have sold, and where.  

     

     

  18. 16 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

    I skim your posts because they seem to provide confirmation bias.

     

    Thanks for your candor.  

     

    That's fine, but then don't ask me to repeat info purely at your personal behest when it's already been provided with much supporting evidence.  Imagine if you wrote a post explaining your position with all sorts of detail and supporting documentation, I only skimmed it, but then commented, "challenged assumptions," and otherwise argued your points which were fully contained and outlined in your post?  How would that sit with you?  ... or if I commented on one of your posts during an interaction between you and someone else, while taking something entirely out of context to "argue" your position?  

     

    We all do that once in a while, but you do it as a rule, at least with me.  

     

    Otherwise, it's also quite a bit hypocritical to challenge the well annotated and well reasoned out arguments of others, while providing little if any actual info much less factual data yourself to the contrary and to arguments that you stand by.  

     

    And again, I've offered several times now to go through game video in detail to illustrate for you, upon your not only challenging but also arguing points, to validate them one way or the other and investigate further, and you've refused every time.  Even just one game to give you a glimpse.  That's also a bit hypocritical.  

     

     

  19. 1 hour ago, mrags said:

    I hope there’s other options. Like the ones they included in the survey like this option:


    A seat located End Zone on the Mezzanine Level

    Seat Coverage: Significant - Level of Seating

    Overhead

     

    Heating: Above Seats

     

    Annual Season Ticket Price per Seat: $900

     

    Personal Seat License (One-Time Fee Per Seat): $1,400

     

    Indeed, those would be coveted seats no doubt.  

     

    The lowest priced heated seats according to their survey are that one and these;  

     

    Location: Mezzanine level end zone

    Coverage: Significant

    Heating: Above seats

    Annual price per seat: $820

    One-time PSL: $2,100

     

    Location: Mezzanine level corner

    Coverage: Significant

    Heating: Above seats

    Annual price per seat: $1,090

    One-time PSL: $1,750

     

    After those, the next "reasonably priced" heated seats in their survey were these ... 

     

    Location: Mezzanine level between 40-yard lines

    Coverage: Significant

    Heating: Above seats

    Annual price per seat: $2,080

    One-time PSL: $5,950

  20. 36 minutes ago, Augie said:

     

    Steep steps has probably been my biggest concern from the beginning. I’ve been to some places that were crazy steep up top, and it can be a real bother. I can’t freak out about until I know how much of a factor it is. No point in me making up worries that may not exist. 

     

    Yeah, it's interesting, the first time I went to one of those stadiums it was a little concerning, but as with you no doubt you get used to it.  The view more from the top than the side is also a plus.  

     

     

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