SaulGoodman
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Posts posted by SaulGoodman
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If the Bills had SB expectations this year, I doubt they trade with their nemesis and allow them to get their guy. I also don’t think they’d go to battle with this WR corps in an all-in year.
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4 hours ago, Gugny said:
I don’t think worrying about other teams is a good strategy.
Clearly, there was no one at 28 who the Bills wanted.
The fact that KC ended up getting a WR with our pick doesn’t faze me.
I don’t care what KC does.
I find it hard fo believe that Beane is content going into next season with our current WRs plus any receiver(s) he gets in subsequent rounds.
He has a plan.
This was one of the rare times that Buffalo had control over what KC does. And they handed them the player they coveted, gift-wrapped.
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On 4/22/2024 at 9:30 AM, SoTier said:
Did you watch the Bills last season -- I mean really watch them by paying attention to what was going in the game not just kibbutzing with pals, especially in the last half of the season when they made their big run? They were playing championship caliber defense with an injury depleted unit. Matt Milano and Tre White were out for the season in the fifth game of the season, and they looked doomed but they regained their momentum and played tough the rest of the way. At the very end of the season and in the playoff win against Pittsburgh, they had more injuries to the DBs and the LBs. They only started 4 LBs -- including AJ Klein who came out of retirement to play -- against the Chiefs and were missing at least one DB and had another playing limited snaps IIRC, too. It wasn't the defense that let them down against KC, it was the offense that missed a couple of plays that would have won the game.
Poyer and Hyde were shadows of their previous selves last season. Injuries did in Hyde, and both had slowed down. White was showing signs of coming back but then he suffered another devastating injury and missed the last 12 games. Miller did next to nothing last season when he did come back, so if he gets back to even a shadow of himself in 2024, it will be a plus. Milano broke his leg rather than suffering a ligament injury so it's likely that he can come back strong this season. The Bills will miss Leonard Floyd on the DL but they're bringing back Ed Oliver who blossomed last season and AJ Epenesa who showed real progress. Tyrel Dodson at LB is gone but Terrel Bernard was outstanding as a 2nd year pro and should be better this year, especially paired with Milano. The 3 starting CBs from last season, Douglas, Benford, and Johnson are all coming back. Edwards and Rapp are the new safeties, which is somewhat worrisome but remember that Poyer and Hyde were largely unknowns when they were signed in 2017.
The Bills defense is a work in progress but there's still the draft and post-June 1 FA signings (when they get some extra cap space). They definitely need a pass rusher and probably another safety, and their depth on defense is shaky. McDermott runs a defense that seems to enable the Bills to plug-in players fairly easily as needed. IMO, the Bills D will likely be about as good as last season. If they can avoid devastating injuries to their best players, they have a chance to be better than last season.
I’m not sure how you can put more blame on the offense than the defense in the KC game. The offense moved the ball pretty consistently against arguably the best defense in the league. Missed FG away from 27 pts.
Meanwhile, the defense forced one punt and was a goal line fumble away from allowing 34 pts in a low possession game. The defense was not successful at all. That was by far the weakest KC offense in the Mahomes era but they looked like one of the best that day.
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47 minutes ago, SoTier said:
The Bills "didn't have the horses on defense to beat KC in the playoffs" in 2023 because their defense was decimated by injury late in the season. Not only were they missing Milano and White, but they also lost Douglas, Bernard, and a couple of other defenders for the playoff game with the Chiefs. They still nearly won the game.
That’s my point. A lot of those players (and other talented pieces) are now gone permanently. Yet some are claiming that McD will have them playing championship caliber defense regardless of the personnel on the field.-
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On 4/20/2024 at 8:38 AM, Kirby Jackson said:
I find this baffling. Help me understand. The Bills have plugged in a variety of guys over the McDermott era and have been more or less the same. They’ve played extended periods without Poyer, Milano, Tre, Von, Hyde, etc… The scheme has had them more or less the same defense regardless of who is out there. They play a conservative zone where they try to avoid big plays and keep the game close. Why do we think, with most of the same guys (minus Poyer, Floyd & Hyde plus Milano) that they will be significantly different? Sean McDermott’s defenses are always about the same. Explain why I should be scared? If the answer is “pass rush” they may need to generate more with the blitz but outside of Floyd (who disappeared late in the year) what’s changed?
The offense has to replace their number 1 and number 2 WRs from last year (not to mention their 4th & 5th). Those 2 guys account for like 250 targets. They added a special teamer and a gadget guy. Why are we comfortable that it’ll work with no boundary WRs on the roster except Shorter and Hollins? The Bills still need 200ish targets from guys not on the roster. It’ll be so easy to defend them right now with no outside threats. There is a Grand Canyon-sized chasm between the need for offense vs. the need for defense right now.
Help me understand how you’re comfortable with the offense but not the defense?
It’s been said here many times that Buffalo didn’t have the horses on defense to beat KC in the playoff game this year. Now they have less talent on that side of the ball.-
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On 9/8/2023 at 8:56 PM, ChronicAndKnuckles said:
Bills went from the golden child to the step child to these analysts. 47 wins in 4 years and 3 straight AFCE titles. I can understand the skepticism about winning in the post-season, but you’re crazy if u don’t think they get there at all. Monday can’t come soon enough.
Wasn’t the Toney Offside call the difference in making the playoffs last year? The margin for error was already pretty thin, and now they’ve lost a ton of quality players. It shouldn’t be a shock if a few people are doubting the Bills. -
13 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Sounds like it was on Diggs and his agent to bring the Bills an acceptable offer and he got to choose which team.
Anyone but the Chiefs? 😆
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Diggs’ production might have fallen off down the stretch, but I’m guessing that he still drew a lot of attention from defenses, making other receivers’ jobs easier.
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14 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:
All over social media. Reddit, FB, Twitter or whatever the F it’s called these days, it’s literally allover every comment section that has anything to do with Josh Allen or the Bills. Way more hate since the playoff loss. Allen kind of went from a hero to hated pretty fast.
They’re both early in their primes. Things can turn around if McD can pull his head out of his *** and build a playoff caliber defense.
So…you expected Allen to be the one player on the planet (including Mahomes) who isn’t bashed on social media? 😆
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KC Derangement Syndrome?
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29 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
I'm just ready to move on from him. He has regressed on the field, dissappears every KC game, and he isn't an impact come the playoffs.
We are paying a #2 WR #1 money. Just move on. Hell KC doesn't have Diggs and not only makes,but wins superbowls. We will be fine without him.
Weird season for him. A bunch of 100 yd games in the first half, but barely a factor in most games down the stretch.
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Seems like Diggs has been sort of waging war with the Bills for a while. Can’t be helping chemistry.
Wasn’t there a rumor that Allen hooked up with his girlfriend, or ex or something? There’s definitely been some bad blood there anyway.
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35 minutes ago, Success said:
It's interesting. You have spent a lot of time on here arguing that Mahomes doesn't have much of an advantage over Allen w/ their respective situations. But here, you're presenting the opposite of that.
I don’t think that’s inconsistent with anything I’ve said.There are a few important factors here. Hollywood Brown can be a game-changer for KC, and Diggs’ decline is huge for the Bills. Maybe he’ll bounce back next season, but we don’t know that. He’s at the age that receivers tend to slow down a little.
Kincaid is still mostly potential. He could be better than Kelce within a few years but it would be crazy to say he’s there now.
I also expect a solid jump for Rice in year two, and he’s already pretty dangerous. After Rice, there was a massive drop-off to the next most productive/reliable WR. It was important for them to fill that hole and add a third weapon.
But as of today, there isn’t much after those three. The ship’s probably sailed on Toney and Moore. Watson makes a pretty good #4 or 5 WR but he’s not a consistent weapon. I’m guessing they’ll draft one in the first.
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16 hours ago, Billl said:
I find it funny that “it’s not even close” in your opinion. The best number one target on that list is Kelce. He’s better than Diggs. The second best option is Rashee Rice. He’s better than Kincaid. The third option of Brown versus Samuel is probably a wash, though Brown has better numbers across the board in his 5 seasons than Samuel has in 7. Shakir is a better 4th option, but that doesn’t really move the needle. Now factor in the contracts. Diggs, by himself, has a bigger cap hit this season than every Chiefs player on that list combined.
As for Kincaid versus Kelce, that comparison makes no sense. If you wanted an honest comparison, it would be Kelce versus Diggs and Rice versus Kincaid. I wouldn’t trade Kelce for Diggs, and I wouldn’t trade Rice for Kincaid. Kincaid looks like a really nice piece going forward, but Rice looks like the next big thing in Kansas City. There’s a reason the Chiefs jumped the Bills in the draft to grab him. There’s also a reason you’re trying to compare your rookie to where our aging vet will be in 3 years while comparing our rookie to what your aging vet was last season.
I’m not sure what happened to Diggs late in the year (injury? Declining?), but if he isn’t significantly better next season, KC’s top three are definitely better. Kelce > Kincaid (anyone who thinks Kelce’s declined significantly should watch the Baltimore game). Rice was much better than Diggs down the stretch and will only be stronger next year. And Brown is better than Samuel.-
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3 hours ago, Beck Water said:
Where have I been trying to argue whether or not TikTokBoi is a "true #1 receiver"?
That seems to be a regular straw scarecrow you've inserted here.
You've been arguing that Smith-Schuster is mediocre and hasn't been very good for years based on the fact that he contributed little in NE in 2023.
My point is simply that isn't a very logical or fact-based evaluation for his performance in KC and previously.
I'm not basing my argument just on the fact that he contributed little in NE, but it does reinforce the point. If he were a player with obvious ability, he would have been higher than the 5th option on a bad offense. I don't think that's a controversial opinion. Anyone who can hold onto the ball will put up decent numbers with Reid and Mahomes. Hardman had 700 yds a few years ago, and 6 TDs in half a season in '22. In NY, he had 1 reception for 6 yds with 0 TDs.
Smith-Schuster hadn't put up good numbers in 4 years when he signed with the Chiefs. He was an injury-plagued player coming off a 129 yd season. Couple that with the fact that he's among the slowest receivers in the league, even at his prime, and it's no surprise that they got him for a bargain.
Signing Smith-Schuster and MVS was not a valiant effort to replace Hill's production. I think most people would agree on that.
3 hours ago, Beck Water said:1. KC signed its 2022 3 vet WR within $1.8M of each other, and they were all minescule cap hits. But as players, Smith-Schuster had the best and most consistent prior performance of the 3 before his 2021 injury - that's why I think they were expecting the most from him as a WR that year (and in fact, got the most from him of their WR). They also in the end, paid him the most but because of his previous year's injury and NFL rules were able to package it as "unlikely to be earned incentives" which is smart cap management. They didn't exactly have a lot of cap.
2. After they pay their elite QB, that's what teams do - they have 1 receiver they pay (for KC, that's Kelce) and other than that, it's first contracts and lower-tier FA. Whether they expect "a huge year" is not directly correlated to the player's salary for that reason - do you really want to "go there" to argue expectations and salary are always linked?
3. As far as paying JSS more, for all we know someone did offer, but he chose to go to KC on a "prove it" year to try to parlay a big 2nd contract. Worked.
"Elite" is not a label I've tried to apply to TikTokBoi any more than "true #1". If you really want to play the "I'll set up strawmen you aren't actually arguing game", I got better things to do.
The post I originally responded to argued that KC's made a great effort to provide Mahomes with good WRs. If they traded away their only #1 caliber WR in his prime and didn't make any efforts to sign a #1, with zero first round picks spent on WR in Mahomes' career, how is that a great effort? Rice may well end up being a #1, but nobody in the organization expected that in his rookie year in Reid's offense. Even Hill produced little in his first season. WRs never dominate out of the gate under Reid. He requires them to know too much before trusting them with a large role.
I don't think any rational fan would view a few late 2nd round picks and some mediocre/average FA signings as a serious effort to provide Mahomes with a great receiving corps.
Of course, we can make excuses about the salary cap, but that's a different argument. I never said I was surprised that they haven't allocated a ton of resources to the position--just that they haven't. If they wanted to, they could obviously devote more resources to WR and less elsewhere.
The other aspect is that, even if you want to argue they've made a solid effort, the results have not been very good. And that's all that really matters. Moore looks like a complete bust, Toney was the laughingstock of the league this year, MVS was not very good, Smith-Schuster was average, Hardman's been a big disappointment, Pringle/Watson/etc are JAGs, and Watkins was always injured.
And no matter what argument you want to make about their overall efforts, there's no denying that they were criminally negligent last offseason. And many KC fans were saying as much at the time. Banking on Toney and Moore making a huge jump, or a late 2nd round rookie killing it in year 1 in Reid's system was a joke. Granted, I think a lot of receivers can be serviceable in KC's offense as long as they can catch the ball and run decent routes. As it turned out, no one but Rice was able to do either this season.
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1 hour ago, Beck Water said:
Beck: "JJSS was a very good, at times great, WR in Pitts when he had real QB, and the expectation in KC was that he'd return to form with Mahomes. And he pretty much did, hauling in 78 receptions for 933 yds. His catch % of 77% was insane."
SaulGoodman: "He did almost nothing the next season. ..is a mediocre player. He hasn't been very good for years"
He was never a true #1 WR. He put up big numbers one year when defenses were keying on Antonio Brown. He was always a slow possession WR. A decent two or three, but far from a legit 1.
1 hour ago, Beck Water said:You know, just as the brokers tell us "past performance doesn't predict future results", having a bad subsequent year doesn't mean the previous one was mediocre. "Eye popping", no, "number 1 receiver", no., but when KC signed him to an incentive-laden 1 year, $3.8M contract (it had $5.5M in incentives that he met), they were expecting him to be what he had been in Pittsburgh - a very good #2 WR who had moments of great when paired with a great QB and other receiving talent (in KC, that would be Kelce).
That's a miniscule contract. What about that suggests "we expect a huge year from this player?" If anything, it proves my point. A 1 year, incentive-laden "prove it" deal that is small even including incentives. Because they knew it was a gamble, and that even if he stayed healthy, he wasn't elite. And if the expectation around the league was that Smith-Schuster would have a very productive year, someone would have paid him much more.
1 hour ago, Beck Water said:And with 77% catch %, 78 receptions, 933 and handing over those $5.5M in incentives, that's exactly what KC got.
But hey - the fact that he played badly in 2023 in NE must mean yOU're RIgHt!
Well, one thing's for sure....the poster who said that KC has made major efforts at WR in the Mahomes era was dead wrong. Drafting a few late 2nd rounders and signing mediocre vets isn't an extensive effort to surround Mahomes with great weapons. Particularly by the standards of Bills fans who think that a perfectly solid Bills receiving corps (plus two good TEs) is woefully inadequate for Allen.
There's a consistent theme on this board: pretend that Mahomes has had everything and Allen's had nothing. Both are far from accurate.
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54 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
At the time the Chiefs signed TikTokBoi, he was coming off IR but had shown strong, at times elite, performance with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger throwing to him (with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges, Not So Much).
So dissing off that signing because of how SS performed the year AFTER he left KC, not really reasonable assessment. JJSS was a very good, at times great, WR in Pitts when he had real QB, and the expectation in KC was that he'd return to form with Mahomes. And he pretty much did, hauling in 78 receptions for 933 yds. His catch % of 77% was insane.
I think it's very relevant to point out that Smith-Schuster did almost nothing the season after KC. He hasn't been very good for years. Partly due to injuries, but the end result is a mediocre player. Reid and Mahomes made him look better than he is, and it's not like he put up eye-popping numbers. Somebody other than Kelce had to make a play now and then.
Bills fans complain that Diggs/Shakir/Davis isn't nearly enough help for Allen. Imagine what they'd say about Smith-Schuster, MVS and Watson. And they'd probably have rioted if the Bills trotted out what KC had at WR last year.
54 minutes ago, Beck Water said:The Chiefs weren't expecting Skyy Moore to be a #1 receiver, they were expecting that of JJSS. That said, they didn't get what they wanted in development from Moore, which is why they drafted Rashee Rice. Who by the way, developed very nicely as the season went along and wound up close to 1000 yds. That's kind of typical of the draft, you won't always hit, you may have to take 2 or 3 shots for that.
When you're paying an elite QB, teams have by and large 2 choices in how they acquire WR:
1) potential gems with a flaw - guys who have in some sense underperformed expectations but you think can shine with The Man at QB polishing them
2) draft until you hit on one.
No one should have ever expected Smith-Schuster to be a legit #1. He was around #5 on a bad Patriots offense. Wasn't good his last few years in Pitt and was coming off an injury. Banking on that guy to be your #1 is not what I'd call investing in big help for your QB.
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11 hours ago, SCBills said:
My point isn’t about the product on the field.It’s about the fact that the FO very clearly has tried to set Mahomes up with help.
Their efforts to add WRs for Mahomes have been pretty weak so far.
Hill was on the roster when Mahomes entered the league. He's literally the only above average WR Mahomes has had and they traded him in his prime. Since Hill left they added Juju Smith-Schuster (could barely get on the field for a terrible Pats team this year), MVS (mediocre), Toney (LOL), Justyn Ross (haha), Richie James, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore in the late 2nd round (no one could have actually thought he'd be a #1 caliber WR), and Rashee Rice in the late 2nd. Oh, and they brought back Hardman (who couldn't get on the field for a terrible Jets team).
They entered last season banking on Toney, Moore, MVS and a 2nd round rookie. If you're calling that an effort, I'd hate to see a lack of effort. And I don't think anyone would say it was a spectacular effort the previous year in signing Smith-Schuster and MVS.
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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Would anyone trade straight up right now their top 4 for our top 4?
Stefon Diggs
Curtis Samuel
Khalil Shakir
Dalton Kincaid
For
Rashee RiceMarquise Brown
Justin Watson
Travis Kelce
Probably not, but Watson won't be in the top 4 when the season starts.
I'd take KC's top three over Buffalo's though.
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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:
Oh *****! does he have a bunch of felonies we don't know about?
LOL. I’ll bet KC’s the only football team to ever have a player who was charged with a crime. That’s totally unheard of in this sport.
Also, I’m not sure where anyone got the idea that Chiefs fans badly wanted Samuel. Haven’t seen/heard anyone say that.
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4 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:
I can’t believe spagnuolo doesn’t get more credit for the chiefs success haha their playoff defense is insanely clutch every game that terrible Daniel Sorensen doesn’t get forced into the lineup
Mahomes' defense has allowed 24+ points in half his playoff games and 30+ in almost a third of them. Including two of the Super Bowls.
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22 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:
It's not like Butker missed a couple of 30 yard FGs. He missed a PAT and a 50 yard FG at the end of the 1st half (hardly an 'easy' kick).
Ah, you're right. I mis-remembered. Definitely doesn't qualify as an "easy" kick, although Butker rarely misses those.
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12 hours ago, Success said:
Ah, yes. The KC defense just laid down for Allen. Unlike what the Bills defense did for Mahomes this past January. And it was quite a bit more than just "picking on Klein." Half the Bills D was out or hurt.
I'm trying to imagine how much more spectacular Mahomes would have been than Allen if he was on the Bills for the 13 seconds game. I'm not able to muster much. Allen was unreal that game. If the Bills win that coin toss, NFL history is probably a bit different.
Not to take away from the game he had, but again, they punted on almost half their possessions. The scoring flurry didn't happen until very late in the game. So obviously the offense and Allen could have done more. It's not like they were facing an elite defense. They were facing a defense with as many or more holes as the one KC faced in January. Sorenson, Niemann, Hitchens and Hughes were massive liabilities and easy for a quality QB to exploit. They didn't "lie down," but they might as well have. Numerous blown coverages, WRs running wide open, and a DB falling down on 4th and 15, leaving Davis high school open for the go-ahead score.
12 hours ago, Success said:You've got 3 Super Bowls, and the consensus top QB in the league. Some even say GOAT. The Bills haven't won a thing. Not sure why you need the vote of confidence for Mahomes from l'il ol' me.
I'm never going to wish the Bills had Mahomes instead of Allen. Sorry 'bout that.
Never expected you to say otherwise. You quoted me and I responded.
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29 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:
He needs it because Chiefs fans see with their own eyes that Allen is better. They’re insecure.It's not KC bias if every time you turn on the TV, a national analyst is calling Mahomes the most talented QB ever. Frankly, a lot of the media goes further in praising him than I do.
This Will Be The Make Or Break Year For This Regime
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Not sure that Reid’s a good comparison. He was consistently going deeper in the playoffs with much less talented QBs than Allen. Lost in the SB by 3 to the best Patriots team ever, thanks to three McNabb picks.