I never know what to think of an analyst looking at the All-22 and crediting incompletions to turning down an open receiver. It requires knowledge of the progression, whether the QB is reading low-to-high or high-to-low, whether that player is even expecting the ball (Brady famously has "clear out routes" where the ball is never intended to go to certain players), whether the "missed opportunity" is early in the progression when the QB is waiting for a bigger gain in a later progression, etc.
There are just so many factors, seems like only Allen and Brady would really know.
Even something like the redzone INT targeting Knox. Allen threw inside and Knox turned outside. Was it just an inaccurate pass, or did Allen or Knox read the coverage wrong?