PoundingDog

Correction. Jalen Carter.

The counter argument to "it's all McDermott's fault" on defense is to look at what the recent champions have in talent and try to find comparable players on the Bills roster. The Chiefs have Chris Jones, the Eagles have a young upcomer Jalen Jones. There is simply no players of that kind of caliber on the Bills defensive side since Bruce Smith was released. McDermott and his staff is not Belichick back in his days. Belichick is an exception, not a norm that people can easily emulate -- an owner says I can find one next season. So a good D coach can scheme all you want, when it comes down execution at the highest level, meaning facing teams with equal or better overall talent in the playoffs, those unicorn talent really becomes critical. They either do things above what you expect, or force you to devote more of you resources to counter which frees up other talented players to make a play on you, at a critical juncture.

Of course everyone in NFL needs to improve to stay in the league. And it is a team message across the league, all 53 etc. etc. But we fans don't play that game. It is a fact that for all teams, majority of the players don't improve that much; they merely keep up. That's why rarely teams go from last to first in one season. When a team does make a leap, it is usually some guys on that team take a big leap forward, especially at a key position (QB for example can improve a team record directly by 3-4 games). The Bills have been Superbowl contenders for a few years now. We have a QB who is in the top 5 for the last 4 years. We have a solid team, sound management for the last 6 years. But it looks like we are hitting a ceiling the last few years. The most likely scenario for us to break thru that ceiling is to have a couple of guys taking a big leap forward. And we know guys in the group of Benard, T Johnson, Knox etc. are NOT going to give us that big leap, but they are solid, steady, dependable. Injury is always a factor, and that involves luck. Who knows what Von could give us 3 years ago in the playoff had he not had that ACL. This year, we'll be looking for some luck on Bosa.

Last year most of us are expecting a down year, based on what happened in the off-season. I did expect the Bills to still win the division but not getting to the AFC championship game. Looking back, I can say for myself that I didn't expect 1) a step forward from Allen. I suspect when we look back years later in Allen's career, it might be a very important year. His 3rd season proved he's elite. But last year (year 6) in my opinion, he became a more rounded, complete QB, especially in decision making. 2) a step forward from Cook. In my book, he became THE offensive weapon and too bad Brady didn't use him enough in the most important game last year. 3) a step backward from Kincaid. Many, including me, expected Kincaid to be THE offensive weapon but he didn't. 4) not a single defensive player stepping up to have a career year. Benford, Rousseau improved, but not a dominant force. Von and Milano didn't have resurgence. This year. I don't think Allen is going to improve significantly again. Neither would I expect from Cook. I expect Kincaid to do better but not sure I would expect a breakout performance. a) Hairston. Widely reported as a McDermott pick (unlike the Elam pick), he may have a chance to have a Tre White like rookie campaign. If that happens, it is a huge boost to the D. b) Bishop. Little evidence to suggest that he's in line for a Bernard kind of 2nd year but no one saw that in Bernard either. Just my hope. we can dream that both a) and b) happen this year so McDermott has his best secondary as a HC of the Bills. c) Coleman. He played enough last year that he got a taste how people defended him effectively later in the season. Does he develop enough to counter, or do Brady and the staff find something to use him more effectively? d) Bosa. He's still young enough to do what he can do. Can he provide the Bills what Von provided when he came to the Bills before his knee injury? I know the Bills spent a lot on the D-Line but I'm not going to bet on the rookies and suspended players. Chances are one of the rookie D-Line will flash, but I just don't see consistently D-Line plays from rookies picked in the low 1st round onwards.

I don't get the anger amongst fans (or talk show hosts) for them not drafting a WR. I don't subscribe to the theory that the position value of WRs are like QBs in that "you must hit one to the point of elevate them a round or 2 round higher." With that, you trust your scouting and the board. And this year the boards across the NFL is that it is a lean year for WRs. I know there are narratives out there that Beane is one of those GMs that don't come from a scouting background. I have not done research on how many of them are out there and the success ratio. I know a few like Rick Smith (Texans) and Terry Fontenot (Falcons) are in a similar boat, though both are former players. Holmgren transitioned from Coach to GM. But I'll say overall, the organization is run way better than pre-McDermott/Beane era overall, maybe 2nd to only Bill Polian (and I can argue Polian won over Beane on eye for talent, but nothing else. I may even question were Polian in Beane's position, would he gamble on selecting Allen). Reaching out against your own evaluation based on needs is what net you Elam kind of decision. Go with the flow of the draft, as the saying goes "let the draft come to you." I feel they did that this year.

Different scenario. Those were considered top 10 talent (in McGahee's case, pre-injury) in their years. Ton of guys in their position carry an attitude - I think Amari Cooper was one too. But the guys drafted by Bills in recent years, are towards the bottom of a round, like 30, so you don't know if you are going to make that round. A lot of money at stake. Bottom 1st rounders average something like $13 million 4 year rookie contract. Mid-2nd rounders may get half of that. For people in their position and their agents, every pick going by costs them money. When you look back, if a guy gets a 2nd contract, it looks petty worrying about 1st round vs 2nd round money, but you know what? Even half of the 1st round guys don't make it.

The old adage of "scoring one more point than your opponent" is always true. But it manifests itself in many forms. Here I'll just focus on offense and defense only (excluding special team stuff, assuming no punt blocked, makeable field goals are made, etc.). We have Josh Allen. A key component for any chance of a superbowl appearance. Compared to the very top QB who has won superbowls last decade, I'd say Allen is not as consistent as Brady, Mahomes, Manning. On par with Stafford. Certainly better and more consistent than Hurts and Foles. Allen is still young enough to improve, last year might be his more consistent year. But overall, if you want to be a team to consistently outscore people by investing heavily into offensive weapons at the expanse of defense, at superbowl which usually means against one of, if not THE best, defense in that year, it may not be the best strategy. Last two years the Bills' offense had the ball at the end of the game and failed to execute. You can argue its Allen or his weapons or both. But the fact is if it were Mahomes or Brady, history showed they were more likely to pull thru. Allen is just not there yet. Now look at Rams and Eagles example. Those team won it all pretty much on the back of their defense. They have playmakers (Hall of Fame level) on D to stop the opponents whereas their QBs made enough plays (or in the Foles' case, got lucky winning enough plays of gambling nature). Allen can certainly do that, likely more than that. The Bills D never lacked solid players. They just don't have elite players that in the model of outscoring people, you need one or two elite plays from that kind of players to stop opponents. Strategy wise, I'm on board with what OBD is doing this off season. Investing in D to make solid all the way around. First 4 round, they drafted very high ceiling guys and hoped one of them to become elite. If they executed well - meaning select the right players for the most part, then next few years we may very well see something similar to what the Chiefs have become: a defense being the backbone of the team to limit teams from scoring less than 17 points on average while Mahomes/Allen making a few plays to win games.

Bad luck or some sort of a trend of the front office - 2019 we got Oliver but there are other DTs drafted afterwards better, guys that are play more at Chris Jones level; 2020 we traded for Diggs, but Justin Jefferson was drafted with our original draft pick who turns to be a likely HoF player; 2023 we picked Kincaid who looks to be a good player, but LaPorta might be a special player drafted later. But we did pick the best QB in 2018 though.

So should Allen's be re-evaluated 2027? I feel Mahomes will reset the market.

This. And I'll add we are at a point it will be hard to add an guy like Metcalf (or potential Hendrickson) because it requires both a high draft pick and loads of money. Good point of taking a swing at a rising player. I think Hoecht is in that category too, evident by them investing fair good money despite knowing his suspension. The most important thing for the Bills I think is the improvement from their young players. Terrence is already there but they certainly hope Kincaid, Williams, Bishop and Coleman and become reliable starters. Can any one of them pop to even be considered an elite guy at the league level?

I think the game has changed some. Mobile QB that can throw is the norm now. Guys like Burrow is the rare one. I agree Burrow may have a shorter career than Josh but that has less to do with Burrow being immobile, more abut Burrow's body build. The GOAT got big hits rarely and he has a much stronger QB body than Burrow. I expect Josh to be smart enough to increase his conditional as he gets older (less beer guzzling and wine drink for example) so he can still move some. Also his experience will allow he to be smarter in terms when to risk all for run and when not to. I use Roethlisberger as an example but expect/hope Josh can still move unlike Roethlisberger's last 3 years.

As a Bills fan, I don't have a problem because we all know we want to Josh to be the Bills QB until he can't play any more and that is probably more than 10 years from now. As an organization, I feel this is more like a raise to Josh than a true extension because it is only 2 additional years on top of the 4 years remaining. Note this is not adding 2 years to the original deal as everyone noted. This is replacing the old one averaging something like $43 million/year to $55 million/year now. I don't know how many true franchise QBs (Brady, Manning, Rogers, Roethlisberger etc.) of the past had this kind of re-work of the contracts in their prime with 4 years remaining. Nothing wrong in terms of Josh's play or importance to the Bills in NFL landscape. But would you rather wait for 2 more years and give him a normal kind of extension with market setting deal, which is more of the norm? I guess the questions are first and foremost, would Josh be unhappy and then would it be saving money overall expecting the QB market continue to move up? The downside is that precedence is set. Two years from now, when the market is reset, especially when Mahomes re-do his deal (which should be a new record), would we have to adjust Allen's again? The golden standard to me is still Mahomes and he's averaging $45 million a year as of now even though there are a lot of restructure and something like couple of $60 million void years added at the end. Maybe the Chiefs will re-do Mahomes contract soon, but as of right now, the hard fact is Mahomes helps out the Chiefs more than Josh for the Bills. Maybe State Farm pays Mahomes so much money that he does not really care. Looking beyond Mahomes, Brady probably helps out the Patriots more than anyone we know.

At around 30:30 mark where Beane said Josh "busting his chop by texting him, say this QB or that QB gets a deal, dropping him down the line."

Not sure. There might be void years cap hit next year. Dorian will be entering year 3 while Milano is still ahead of him. I don't know how much an entrenched starter he will be for a "show us" year 4. The Bills did spend a draft pick on a LB last year so there is some depth.

Look, we kind of know what Beane is by now. He values -- I mean really values -- draft picks. But he's a bit of a gambler on traits. Top picks under his watch, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, Elam, Kincaid, Coleman all had elite physical traits that he hoped that if mentally unlocked would translate to true big stars. It worked out splendidly on Allen. Somewhat on Rousseau - I think at age 24, his book is still being written. Definitely not on Edmunds and Elam. I don't think he's going to shell out big time draft assets for any aging star, defined like around age 30 or so.