JohnNord
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Posts posted by JohnNord
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10 hours ago, Chaos said:
In my opinion, there are two primary factors separating the drought era Bills teams from the Allen era Bills teams. The first and foremost is having Josh Allen as QB. The second factor which may be equally as important is having the financial resources to compete in free agency.
Among the drought era coaches I think I liked Chan Gaily the best. I credit him with being the inventor of the Fitzmagic.
It would have been interesting if he and Allen had aligned in time. I am not sure if any of the other drought era coaches would have been anymore interesting than the Allen era coaching staffs have been.
How would others like to rewrite history?
IMO Beane, McDermott (and Daboll) don’t get enough credit for selecting Josh and putting in a plan to support and develop him as a QB. While he had a lot of physical traits and intangible, the majority of draft pundits had predicted he’d bust.
Given the track record of the decision makers during the drought, they’re probably a decent chance that Josh turn out to be Kyle Boller, Jake Locker or Paxton Lynch
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On 5/17/2024 at 1:20 PM, Chicken Boo said:
You don't think the divison would have been more difficult to win with Rodgers on the Jets or the playoffs more difficult to reach with those 3 teams also in the mix?
If not, that's cool. I just disagree.
Injuries are a part of the game and always have a major impact on the end result of the NFL season. It’s not logical to assume that team is going to be at full strength.
Thats like saying Kansas City shouldn’t be SB Champs because they beat the Bills without Milano, Bernard or Tre White
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On 5/15/2024 at 8:01 PM, Logic said:
I think predicting the schedule at this point in the year is incredibly difficult, almost to the point of being a meaningless exercise.
As it is, strength of schedule is based off of last year's records, but most teams have between 30 and 40% roster turnover from season to season.
Beyond that, there is so much variability in the health of opposing rosters that it really comes down not to WHO you are playing, but WHEN you are playing them.
Just as an example, let's suppose Tua Tagovailoa and CJ Stroud get hurt and miss several weeks, spanning the period of time when the Bills play the Dolphins and Texans. That takes those games from "coin flip" status to "probable Bills win" status. That's a very simple example, but it's indicative of what I'm talking about.
I've seen years where we have a really "hard" schedule that turns out to be easy, and years where we have a really "easy" schedule that turns out to be hard.
Putting aside the difficulty in finding any meaning in the Bills' schedule at this point in the year, I WILL say that the Bills -- by Beane's own admission -- are in a transition year. A retooling, a mini-reset, whatever you want to call it. The youth and inexperience on this roster likely can't help but cause the Bills to take a step back or two, at least temporarily.
All in all, despite the roster turnover, youth, and POTENTIALLY difficult schedule (that's all I'll concede on that front), I think the presence of Josh Allen at QB and Sean McDermott at coach put the Bills' floor at about 9-10 wins. At the end of the day, I'll predict 11-6 and a Wild Card.
It’s a good point. When you finish in first place the schedule is never easy. But assuming all of the teams who were good in ‘23 will be good in ‘24 is not accurate. So much can change during the season with injuries and unexpected roster moves etc.We should have a better idea of the difficult of the schedule by midseason
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On 5/15/2024 at 11:02 AM, thurst44 said:
Our QB is hardly a slouch and I'm not going to predict Kelce levels for Kincaid, but he's promising as a top 5 TE and possible first option and we have a better TE2 and better pass-catching RBs.
We also don't know how the WRs will play this year. Diggs and Davis were doing very little during the drive to the AFC East lead. Yes, Diggs was drawing coverage, but even there, one of the Cover 1 creators cited a stat where the team had a better EPA when Diggs was not on the field. The WR room may not be bad, just different. There seems to be a plan to me: add some upside tall receivers, a speedy WR who was one of the top with separation. Both FA period WR signings had their best season under Brady. It portends to be a very different and interesting offense. Or you could be right. But dismissing it out of hand is not painting the whole picture.
I get what you are saying - just concerned that the Bills didn’t do enough at WR. Like you said we’ll have to wait and see what happens -
On 5/6/2024 at 9:14 AM, Putin said:
This is a brutal schedule
Everyone always says how brutal the schedule is when it’s first released. In May a first place schedule always looks so much harder than it is in actuality. People said the same exact thing last season.
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2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
KC did NOT have one of the best TEs of all time last year. Kelce is on the downslope. Still top three or so in today's NFL, but our TE appears headed in that direction, and fast. Can't be sure yet. But that's the way it looks. I'm sure everyone's tired of this stat, but Kincaid was 4th all time for TE rookie catches and 10th all time for TE rookie receiving yards.
But while Mahomes is certainly top two in the league, IMO so is Allen.
It is indeed an exception to the rule, as are the Bills. While lack of WR talent could certainly hurt, it's way too early to be as sure as you are here. Just as Mahomes spread it around a ton and was really productive the past two years without a great deal of WR talent, Allen could very possibly manage the same kind of thing.
We’ll see… as much as I love Josh, I’m not putting Allen in that tier yet. I think the way Beane handled the WR did a tremendous disservice to Josh as QB and can almost guarantee that next year we’ll be talking about trading up to draft WR’s….again. -
47 minutes ago, Saratoga Leo said:
That is what they said in Kansas City last year.
It helps having one of the best QB’s, TE’s, and offensive play callers of all time. It’s an exception to the rule. Lack of WR talent is going to hurt the team.
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13 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
Anyone complaining about CAP space next year...
Overthecap projects us at $14m next season.
If Buffalo rolls over the Tre White extension without doing anything with it next month minus paying the rookie class we get about $9m.
Plus everyone thinks we're cutting Von next offseason... if we do we get $8.5m in CAP savings.
Over $31m in CAP space right there.
Plus... could still easily restructure Oliver, Taron and Josh for a lot more money.
And as far as FA go... the big one is really only Spencer Brown.
Beane has set this team up for the future!
To do this, he set the team up for mediocrity. Look at the WR room-
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13 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
lol I didn’t even see this thread. I made a comment about the 2015 Panthers today.
The most dominant franchise since 2000 also undervalued WR, NE Patriots.
Correct but they also had one of the greatest QB’s of all-time. There’s been two QB’s that have been able to succeed with subpar WR options. One is Brady, the other is Mahomes. Both of those two also had elite TE’s for the majority of their career.
Josh has a way to go before he’s on that level. He should have been given better weapons
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On 5/9/2024 at 12:19 AM, Mikie2times said:
Dorsey was the QB coach, McD was the defensive coordinator, Beane was Assistant GM. They went to the Super Bowl that year losing to the Broncos. Looking at the roster two thing concerned me. They seem to be constructed in similar fashion as we have been. Specifically the WR neglect seems pretty apparent in the make up of both teams. They seem to be MUCH more talented than any version of the Bills we have seen thus far. It's nearly at every position. Beane has had a good amount of time working on our roster. This was a very good Carolina team but I don't like that it appears we have a deficit against them in nearly every position.
QB - This was Cams MVP season, but still would rather have Josh
Cam Newton
RB - Both went to the Pro Bowl that year, Stewart was actually a really good back at that time. This is close but nod to Carolina.
Jonathan Stewart
Mike Tolbert
WR - It's possible our current WR room is better than the one they fielded in 2015 🤢. Ginn was very explosive but nobody had over 750 yards. Our WR units have been better the last few years which is really concerning as far as how Beane views the position.
Ted Ginn Jr
Jerricho Cotchery
Devin Funchess
Corey Brown
TE - Olson was an absolute monster. Very high hopes for Kincaid but hard to put him in Olson's class at this stage
Greg Olson
OL- Two all pros and Michael Oher. Nod to Carolina
T Michael Oher
LG Andrew Norwell
C Ryan Kalil
RG Trai Turner
RT Mike Remmers
DL - Short was a pro bowler. This was the young version of Star. I would say DL is pretty close.
DE Charles Johnson
DT Star Lotulelei
DT Kawann Short
DE Jared Allen
LB - One of the best LB cores of the decade. Not close.
Shaq Thompson
Luke Kuechly
Thomas Davis
DB - When we had pre injury Tre and younger Poyer and Hyde we probably get that nod. That unit hasn't been intact for a bit though.
CB Charles Tillman
CB Josh Norman
SS Roman Harper
FS Kurt Coleman
You can definitely some similarities in terms of roster building with both franchises. I do feel that Beane and McDermott undervalue WR’s and it’s the one position that has been mismanaged.
They lost a number of established vets over the past three seasons and rather than re-loading, they simply doubled down on players they had on the roster (McKenzie, Davis etc) which backfired.
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8 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:
I’d put him in the top 10-12. You could do far worse and he has helped make Detroit relevant again. I’m a fan of his
I would say that’s a fair range. -
Just now, Chicken Boo said:
Yes he is. He's led multiple teams to the playoffs and has appeared in a Super Bowl.
Every QB has bad games.
How does that make him one of the best QB’s in the league? -
On 5/11/2024 at 12:22 PM, Kirby Jackson said:
This is where I’m at with him. I think that he can absolutely be an important piece on a good team. If he is the top guy in your WR room, that’s not ideal. I think similarly of Samuel. I think Coleman can be a better Gabe. If the Bills acquire a number 1 via trade or the draft in the next year that room will be fine (assuming Coleman is a better Gabe). A depth chart of Ayiuk (Burden, Jefferson, Higgins or whomever), Coleman, Shakir/Samuel, Shakir/Samuel. That would be a very good WR room.
My issue with the Bills WR room is the top of the depth chart not the balance. If they inserted someone at the top, it could be a good group.
This is where I’m at as well. Some fans are delusional believing that Shakir is going to put up 100+ catches for 1,000+ yards to fill the void left by Diggs.What bothers me about the build of this team is that everyone knew they needed to improve at WR after last season. Beane spent and entire press conference talking about it. But then they essentially make the WR room worse than last season.
Everyone talked about getting better at WR this past offseason and we’ll be doing it again next offseason.
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3 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:
Happy for that guy. I've always been a Goff fan.
With a clean pocket, he's as good as any QB in the league.
No he isn’t. He’s a good QB but he’s far one of the best in the NFL and that was on full display last season in the NFCCG
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2 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:
Think of all the combine interviews and 30 visits for players they did not draft. For every Beane comment about liking Coleman's 40 time because it meant they would have a shot at getting him at their draft spot, there are 100s more about other combine players.
100%. That’s why I’m surprised how tight-lipped the entire Bills production staff are. I’m guessing there’s a team of about 10 or so (maybe more) who have access to the raw footage and know what the true story was on draft day and at the combine.
With all this war room/combine footage, it kind of makes you wonder if it sees the light of day years later.
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On 5/7/2024 at 10:02 AM, JESSEFEFFER said:
I love these highly edited, extended PR videos and look forward to them after every draft. Very well done and we get to see some of the decision making process and the draft room interactions. So, we do learn something from them. Sad Kim still can't be there to offer her home baked cookies to the room and have McD make a face when he was offered.
Link: Inside the Bills' 2024 Draft
It’s pretty amazing how NFL teams are keep so much information under wraps. Their entire production team has access to the team’s board as well as knowledge of their the draft plans which didn’t happen-
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Diggs.. not even close
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1 hour ago, DrMaxPower said:
It's a net negative if Diggs was who was supposed to be. Instead he was a petulant baby that quit mid season.
People keep talking about the WR position with the memory of Diggs, not the guy who was actually on the field the last 10 games.
The Diggs/Davis we got down the stretch will not be hard to replicate, if not surpass.
I think from a locker room perspective it’s a net positive. Addition by subtraction.
Even though it appears that Diggs lost a little, he was still an above average WR. His numbers were pedestrian down the stretch, but there were also several long throws that he missed with Allen which could have changed that story. Plus having Diggs on the field, helped open things up for receivers in the flat/middle like Cook, Shakir and Kincaid.
My problem isn’t necessarily that they moved on from Diggs/Davis - it’s more that the plan to replace them doesn’t look very encouraging on paper
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On 5/5/2024 at 11:59 AM, Kirby Jackson said:
Gotta love, “Josh it’s up to you to raise the level of skill around you.” That’s fireable imo. I’ve been a huge Beane supporter since he got here. I’ve been lukewarm on McDermott.
Phillosophically, I differ from them greatly on that. If Josh Allen were my QB, I would invest every prime asset I could in surrounding him with elite talent. You’re going to win BECAUSE of him. Their philosophy is that it doesn’t matter who’s around him because we have him. That hasn’t worked to date.
Please don’t talk about the assets that they invested in Diggs, etc.. I don’t want to have to pull the data again of the assets allocated to the DL over WR. It’s disgusting. Depending on how this year goes, I would be okay pulling the plug on this regime. Lots of people could win 11 games and 1 playoff game with Josh Allen. I’m ready to try something different. That’s not good enough with that unicorn playing QB. You’ve failed him.
100% The plan to “improve” the WR room has been underwhelming. So much talk about speed at WR at the end of the season press conference - yet all they did was sign Samuel who kind of duplicates the skillset of Shakir in the slot.
When Diggs was traded, I could have sworn Beane had a plan. It turns out he really only envisioned a second round draft pick. Keon might turn out to be a great WR but it’s tough to envision him having the season he’ll need for the team to be a contender.
That’s why I’m in the group who believe the team is prepared to take a step back this season to take two steps forward in 2025.
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On 5/3/2024 at 10:09 AM, dave mcbride said:
Some good stuff here: https://theathletic.com/5467312/2024/05/03/nfl-draft-afc-best-worst-classes-insider-reaction/, One takeaway from these comments: the consensus seems to be that next year's draft will be significantly deeper than this one's and that trading for 2025 picks is a smart move.
Bills:
“It looks like they didn’t want a little guy in cold weather — ‘We’re a tough run team now,'” another exec said. “The risk is that Coleman is going to be covered. Those guys are making contested catches, and that is hard to do over and over again unless you are DeAndre Hopkins.”
The selection of inside runner Ray Davis in the fourth round could further signal a shift toward being more of a power team.
“There is now a big difference in the speed around Patrick Mahomes compared to the speed around Josh Allen,” another exec said. “Buffalo is saying, ‘Josh, it is up to you to raise the level of the skill around you,’ which is great, but we’ll see if he is able to do that.”
Broncos:
[Re: the Nix pick] “I’m betting on it (succeeding) heavily,” an exec said. “Bo has experience, he has enough arm talent and I think he is going to do what he is coached to do. Sean Payton’s system is optimal for him. Bo is not going to go off-script as much as Russ was going to do. Look, I don’t want him to be successful, but I think he is going to be legit there.”
“I’m not a Bo Nix fan, but if anybody can get something out of him, Sean could,” another exec said, voicing concerns about Nix’s accuracy and reaction to the pass rush. “He’ll program that kid to do exactly what he wants every week. It won’t be enough the first year, but Sean will buy a third year to develop the kid and see if he can get him through.”
Texans:
Unrelated to the Texans, and speaking in general terms, an exec from a team picking inside the top 20 made a comment we regularly hear this time of year.
“Call it pick 20 to pick 40, shake them up and throw them out, they are all similar players,” he said.
Whether or not that is true, execs agreed the 2025 draft should be deeper than the current one, so that acquiring picks next year carried additional value.
Chiefs:
“They won the Super Bowl, but they should be blowing dudes out like they used to,” an exec said. “Xavier Worthy will make it easier to do that with the tight end (Travis Kelce) getting older.”
“Kansas City is going to light people up with that kid,” an exec said of Worthy. “He’s a little, fast guy, and you think he’s a track guy, but he’s tough, finishes runs, fast, disciplined. He has a nice all-around game.”
Raiders:
“Bowers is not like Dalton Kincaid where you can create separation in the normal flow of the offense,” an exec said. “You have to move him. He would be ideal in San Francisco or Miami. Whereas Kincaid is special at the top of the route, Bowers is one-cut, catch it, break three tackles and he’s gone. Hopefully, they have a good plan for him because he can do some really unique things with the ball.”
Dolphins:
The Dolphins reached for their credit card. They traded their 2025 third to Philadelphia for a fourth this year, despite general league thinking that NIL implementation at the college level thinned the current crop after the first couple of rounds. As one exec put it, “If you traded this year’s fourth for next year’s third, that’s a huge win because of the nature of the class.”
Jets:
“They are in win-now mode, which is why I thought they would go Bowers all the way or any player that would help them win this year,” an exec said. “Instead, they drafted a tackle who might not play for them this year, and might not be well-suited to kick inside and play guard. It certainly is good long-term process, but where they are as an organization, they gotta win this year.”
The Mahomes/KC comparison is spot on. It was clear last season that both Buffalo and KC needed better weapons at WR. The Divisional playoff loss perfectly demonstrated the lack of talent at the position.But winning a SB, KC still signed Brown and drafted Worthy… clearly a net positive.
Whereas Buffalo lost its two starting WR’s signed Samuel and drafted Keon. At best, the most optimistic fan will call this push. In reality, it’s more of a net negative.
That’s why I didn’t care for what Beane did at WR this offseason. Seems like the only way this works is if Josh himself elevates his supporting cast even more and why I think Buffalo is looking to 2025.
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17 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:
This maybe a reach, but I think they would have.
We know that the Bills had Coleman higher than McConkey, Mitchell, Legette, Worthy, and Pearsall. If they didn't they would have taken one of Worthy, McConkey, Legette or Pearsall at 28 (or 32) instead of trading down (twice). So let's say for arguments sake that the Bills don't make the trade and draft Coleman at 28.
Dallas and Baltimore don't take a WR. Dallas didn't grab a WR until the 6th round and Baltimore stole Tez Walker in the 4th. We know SF didn't want Legette, McConkey and Coleman. That leaves one question, would they have taken Worthy over Pearsall? That's the real question. Given how the 49ers went somewhat off the board by drafting Pearsall with Legette, McConkey, Coleman, & Mitchell available, I believe they had Pearsall ranked ahead of Worthy as well.
By way the NFL had a draft grade of 6.4 on McConkey, 6.35 on Mitchell, 6.32 on Pearsall, 6.29 on Worthy, 6.26 on Legette, and 6.25 on Coleman
Given this back drop, it seems to me that KC would ended up with Worthy anyway. I'm therefore glad Beane stuck to his guns, traded down and added the 3rd rd pick.
Jerry Jones loves Texas players and the rumor was that Dallas was looking into Worthy. I’m guessing that KC called Buffalo because they felt there was a chance Dallas (or one of the other remaining teams) were drafting Worthy.
We’ll never know who the other 3 teams would have picked. But I can’t see it going either way
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12 hours ago, zevo said:
I feel like Allen wanted a guy that could make that ridiculous catch in the big moment. Colemans has a lot of ridiculous grabs
Like Stefon Diggs?
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16 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:
The quote is taken out of context, the team is transitioning because it lost a lot of the veterans and new people are going to need to step up. It seems by all accounts the Bills have drafted a lot of quality high character players. And even the depth pieces are quality.
I took the drafting of just one WR as a good sign. It signals to me they are keeping room for a veteran addition. No rookie could be reasonably expected to replace Diggs. Getting another rookie like Franklin in the 3rd would have signaled to me a rebuild.
The Bills still have a spot for the veteran. They have 2025 draft capital to get one. They have Tre money coming in along with another possible Josh restructure for 2024 funds along with no more Diggs as a way to justify future year payments.
Perhaps…The only thing that concerns me is that Beane said no trade is coming at his presser. The available options at WR in FA really aren’t that great either - especially when you consider what type of player the Bills need. -
31 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Beane could’ve drafted WR’s since 2018 and hasn’t.
Then he wouldn’t have had to extend Diggs desperately in 2022. Something that gave Diggs tremendous leverage in 2022 and 2023.
He did neglect the WR room for multiple seasons, and is still neglecting it and Josh is going to pay for it when his career ends at 31 like Cam Newton.
100%. It shocking that Coleman as a 2nd round selection is the HIGHEST drafted WR that Beane has ever selected. This is a major reason why the Bills are at the point they are at now.To his credit, Beane assembled an excellent WR room in 2021 with Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis and Isaiah McKenzie. The problem was that 2/5 of that group were vets on the final seasons of their career.
In 2022, when Beasley and Sanders fell off a cliff mid-year and moved on, Beane’s solution was to simply sign an aging Jameson Crowder and hope Isaiah McKenzie and Gabe Davis could take a step major forward.
In 2023, Beane pounded the podium that Gabe was playing through injuries. His solution was to double down on Davis, and sign low-end FA’s like Harty and Sherfield.
I’ve never been one to defend Diggs. Say what you will but the reason the Bills have a lower-end roster WR is less about Stefon and more about failure to dedicate enough resources to the position
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Waddle gets paid
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Waddle is good but there’s no way he deserves Top 5 money.