Tanoros
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Posts posted by Tanoros
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28 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:
Giants clearly want to come out of this draft with an extra 1st next year. Nobody seems in love with the QB’s in this draft so it’s probably not happening that way for Giants. Maybe Bills trade pick 25, next years 1st and Poyer for pick 7. Bills take Hamilton and have their QB of the defense for next 10 years.
I don’t think that would be nearly enough to trade up to the either of the Giants picks. We’d have to throw more picks into the trade package. As nice as Hamilton would be, we’d still have a hole at corner, and most likely the trade up suggest would cost us our second and more, which means less chance to fill the hole at corner.
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26 minutes ago, Logic said:
Yeah I have to say that the idea of moving up for a CB makes sense to me.
We know that
1. Beane has a history of moving up for players he covets. He has done so in the past and spoken about this approach many times.
2. The Bills roster will be tough for eight rookies to make, as you mentioned, meaning that a trade-up or two is likely.
3. The Bills seem to have adopted an aggressive "win now" mentality, as evidenced by Von Miller move and spending to the cap.4. Corner is a high value position, one in which the Bills are currently highly deficient and where they could really use a cost controlled five-year deal.
All of these facts combine to make me think that if Beane really liked a corner -- or any position really, but especially corner -- he would move up without hesitation.
Several people have said this in this thread, and several times the reply has been the same: BEANE runs a tight ship, but if he's reached out to several teams to gage their interest in trading, it's definitely possible that one of those teams were the ones to do the leaking.
Teams also INTENTIONALLY leak things at this time of years for various strategic reasons, whether it be subterfuge and misdirection or the solicitation of offers from other teams.What assets does Beane use to trade up for a corner in the first? Unless he uses picks only, he would be making a hole. The only vets worthy of trading up in the first are starters, which means making a hole, to fill a hole. I don’t see Beane doing anything like that. For instance, if we trade Edmonds, who fills Edmonds spot?
I think it’s more likely we trade up into round 2 or later, but not the first round. I just don’t see how we can pick up Von and not be all in on a Super Bowl push. You don’t make holes (even to fill another whole) when making a run for a super bowl. No rookie is guaranteed, but a starter (even ones who can do better) are a known commodity, and those starters are part of a team that should have made it to the AFC championship minimum last season.
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1 hour ago, Logic said:
The two key questions here:
Who would the Bills be moving up for?
What veterans have trade value?
The logical answers to the first question would seem to be a corner or WR. Maybe they really like Derek Stingley or Jameson Williams.
The only answers I could come up with to the second question are Tremaine Edmunds and Zack Moss.
Interesting report. I can’t see them moving up TOO high, as it would cost a ton to get from 25th into the top 10. Maybe they just want to get inside the top 20 to ensure they get one of these WRs or CBS before the talent level drops off.
I just can’t see us making a hole that has to be filled in a year when we are making a super bowl push. For instance, trading Edmonds for a lber makes sense in the long term, but not for our chances this season, especially if we trade picks too, because it’s then less chances to fill depth.
I would prefer trading future assets vs making a hole that is filled by a rookie. The Bills must have their eyes on a player or a couple who might not be there at 25 and we may have to move up a bit and this is Beane doing his due diligence prior to the draft (kind of like how we had a tentative deal with the Broncos in 2018 draft).
Lastly, I just can’t fathom trading a starter for someone like Williams. We’d get no immediate ROI while also making a hole. That would not help us make a super bowl push this year.
48 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:It doesn’t say 1st round, I doubt that’s what he’s referring to here. And you can’t get far in the 1st anyway without giving up picks. For vet players it sounds like a day 2 package.
This is an excellent point. It doesn’t say first round, and it seems like day 2 (second and third round) are where teams can get some good value too. I really would like 4 picks in the first 3 rounds.
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22 minutes ago, Motor26 said:
Dohtson wouldn’t be a huge contributor from day 1, he’d be the 4th wide receiver. Not the way a corner would contribute day 1, or even a stud OT/OG or a stud DT like Wyatt or Davis if they drop to the Bills. If you say the Bills are primed for a Super Bowl run shouldn’t they aim for an immediate contributor?That’s exactly what I’m thinking. Most likely corner, but could be the positions you list or even rb like Hall. It’s going to come down to someone the Bills feel will make an impact day 1.
I was just being generous when I said special teams minimum, because you just never know with rookies and there has to be a floor expectation for a first round pick.
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2 hours ago, The Jokeman said:
We could also take Jahan Dotson who's healthy and can play in the slot and return punts as a rookie and maybe develop as an eventual Crowder replacement in 2023and Diggs replacement in 2024.
Agree. I feel like with where we sit currently, whoever our first round pick is, they need to be someone who can come in and contribute day 1, even if that’s on special teams and depth at offense or defense. We are primed for a super bowl run and we need all hands on deck.
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2 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:
Practice? You talking about practice?
Lets talk about abilitiesBills’ Gabriel Davis amongst best second-year WRs vs. man coverage
Competition might be good, but Davis has proved he can be relied, and in big moments.
His playoff effort against the Kansas City Chiefs, a record four touchdown catches, proved that–PFF’s statistic only further solidifies it.
I for sure think he proved he can be the number two to Diggs. It seemed like the Bills gave him that opportunity down the stretch and into the playoffs and he did it.
Gabe has a huge season coming up. He has a big opportunity to make a name and earn that big payday, even if it ends up being a slight hometown discount 😉
2 hours ago, AllenDaBomb said:First time poster here! Anyone think Gabe Davis has hidden superstar potential? His footwork to stay in bounds is a thing of beauty!
I cross my fingers that he does. He has Allen throwing to him, so he will have all the opportunity in the world. You are absolutely right about his sideline footwork. Can’t believe his level of awareness as a rookie, empirically in the Colts game. But he has always showed good sideline footwork.
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47 minutes ago, TH3 said:
Yaaa...US had slavery 50 years, Constitutional slavery for 100 years...and another 100 years of legal, legislated racism...that was till active in my lifetime and is 80 percent of the timeline of our countries history.
I tend to think white dudes have zero concept on what it is to be a minority in this county.
The whole race issue has gone too far currently. I’m married to a non white woman (I’m white), and she is also from a different country. Her and I talk all the time of about the “soft” racism she experiences all the time. When I say soft racism, I mean people being overly nice or going out of there way to make comments about her skin, hair, clothes, whatever. It’s cool that people are nice, but at the same time, it’s so awkward and feels so forced. The funny thing is, it wasn’t this until the last handful of years and we live in a VERY liberal area. When we visit family in non liberal areas, she is treated just like a normal person, no special treatment, but also no aggressive racist treatment either.
The current culture surrounding racism is such that now people are swinging in the opposite direction and being overly nice to those who are non white. That also isn’t right. People are people, and that’s how we as society need to see others. People should be treated based on they are as a person, not race. Also, why does there have to be labels like, “African Americans”, “Chinese Americans”, “latin Americans”, we are all Americans. These labels only further division.
In an effort to solve racism, we are creating more racism. That’s not the answer.
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On 3/29/2022 at 5:16 AM, njbuff said:
So, the NFL is telling minorities they are too stupid to get these jobs on their own merit?
Ok
This is what I don’t like about practices like this. I want to get job or be rewarded for my actions, but getting a job based on my race would have me wondering, “did I really earn this”? In a way, it feels like this is cheating people out of a sense of accomplishment.
I work in the construction industry, construction safety specifically. The projects with the best safety rates, are the ones with the best safety culture, everyone is bought in. But that culture is created over night, it takes time and by in by leadership.
I see diverse hiring practices in a similar vein. The culture surrounding the hiring of minority candidates needs to be fostered to where those hiring are truly picking the person who is the most qualified, regardless of race/sex.
In this case, the NFL has bad PR surrounding this issue and they are forcing a quick solution in order to change their image, with little thought towards the future.
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9 minutes ago, TampaBillsJunkie said:
No. I was born a fan. It was embedded into my blood. Before I even realized who I was, I was in my cradle wearing Bills outfits. When I was old enough to get carted to games, I sat on a beer cooler in the Rockpile handing out beers and sandwiches to my dad, grandpa and uncles.
I went to the first game at Rich Stadium, I saw OJ running from defenders, not the law. I saw the best and worst of Bills football for 50+ years. And I'll never change my allegiance.
This is how my daughter is. She was brought home from the hospital in a Bills outfit. She was born late August and she was in my arms watching Josh Allens first pro game. My daughter is not only a Bills fan, but a HUGE Josh Allen fan. Her and I watch every Bills game together, and we celebrate like crazy when good things happen, but especially good Josh Allen plays. She always wants him to get td’s 🤣
How lucky is she to grow up in the Josh Allen era?
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I grew up in Alaska, and because the 90’s Bills were so good, there gear was sold in the stores. I picked a Bills backpack going into kindergarten thinking it was a moose, only for my mom to tell me it was a Buffalo. When I got home, my dad explained that it was a football team. After that, I started watching football with my dad on Sundays, but I was most interested in seeing Bills games and they were on often enough.
After getting the backpack, it didn’t matter how good the team was, I was hooked. I became an obsessed football fan from a very young age.
As an example of how Bills crazy I was. When they weren’t good anymore, they were not on the tv anymore (rarely). So I was on NFL.com every weekend watching the play by play on the old school game cast. Internet was so bad, I had to constantly refresh the page to see what was happening. That’s how I watched the majority of my Bills games in my youth. Then sport center for the highlights on Monday morning.-
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11 hours ago, billybrew1 said:
Other teams getting great QBs is just complete BS. For 20+ years we have waited for a QB and now that we finally have one, everybody else is finding one. There used to be two, three QBs in the league, Now that we have one, it’s just BS that’s all!
Total BS!
Lol! Well atleast we very well could have the best of the bunch 😉
48 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:I’ll approach the debate a bit differently. Since the Bills already have a top QB under contract, is it really that hard to teach the OL to run block? The statistical difference between a great and below average running game is something less than 3 feet per attempt. I said the same thing last offseason…can we not work even a little bit on opening a crack or two so we can pick up that extra three feet on a somewhat regular basis. I mean after all….why not?
Well the hiring of Kromer is hopefully the signal that this is what McDermott is thinking too.
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Just now, IronMaidenBills said:
Yes I like Hall. But I just want play makers, don’t really care who. If we trade up and get Sauce Gardner, I’d be happy to. Just get us a difference maker.
I’m so curious to see what we do at cb. This will be very telling for us long term how the Bills value cb (or Tre is making a remarkable recovery). I kinda want to see us get 3 picks in the first two rounds, which most likely with 2 second round picks. So either a trade up, or a trade down (then still moving around a bit to get “our” guys).
There’s a good chance we can get a good cb at 25 and then move up and get Hall. That would be a great scenario for us.
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4 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:
This team is going to be so great this year, it will be talked about with a lot of the other great teams in history. Our defense was already top in pressures, and we added Miller who by himself adds nearly half of our teams stats. Plus we bring back White on top of all that. Not even including the draft. This team is absolutely going to MAUL teams and it’s going to be a thing of beauty. I would not be surprised if this team sets the offensive ppg NFL record and the defensive fewest points allowed record at the same time.
Your a Breece Hall in the first guy right? I’ve been warming up to that possibility myself. Either way, I just want our team to come out of the draft with atleast 1 playmaker and a couple solid starters/depth pieces. If the playmaker is a cb, wr, rb, whatever, I just want someone who will make an impact year 1 and help push us over the top.
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4 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:
No what is said is the only way for team #1 to guarantee a 3rd possession is if team 1 scores a TD and a 2 pt conversion. All of the others ways would give a 3rd possession correct and have been mentioned previously, but non are guaranteed.
The difference being if Team 1 performs any of the first 4 options - team 2 has a chance to finish the game and outright win or lose without ever getting to sudden death. That does not mean they will, but they have that ability.
There is absolutely nothing Team #1 can do that wins the game on the 1st possession. Team 2 will always get the ball and have a chance to win or tie the game.
True, I missed the most important word of your previous post. Your point about team 1 not being able to win with their first possession is true, and I do think the trend will be for teams to defer (at-least at the start). However, there is certainly merit to taking the ball first and having the option for a 3rd possession.
For instance, with Allen I’d feel comfortable with him driving down and scoring a td on the first possession. Namely, because Allen can convert even 3rd and longs with relative ease (at least compared to just about everyone else besides Mahomes), and I’d feel really good about Allen getting us into fg distance on a 3rd drive. Also, I trust our defense to hold in a 2pt attempt, at least, enough to take the chance.
Question for you. If we got the ball first, do you automatically go for 2 every time (playoff OT)? Situation dependent? I do trust Allen going for 2, but I’d still go for the xp, unless our defense couldn’t stop anything (like our last game).
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2 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:
Allen is reaching new levels of play. I honestly believe he hasn’t even reached his ceiling yet. Imagine what he would do with another high end speed WR. Allen is going to be the greatest player to ever play the game when all said and done, I’m fully convinced. Imagine what he would do with better line play and a receiving back. I think this is the year everyone in the league will be picking their jaws off the floor.
I agree with all you said about Allen. I also strongly believe he will be considered the best to ever play when it’s all said and done. I hope this upcoming season we get to see both Knox and Davis break out (among others, namely some defensive guys).
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32 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:
And you get 4 downs the whole drive. Deferring offers a lot of benefits. Going first is only a benefit if you elect to go for 2 and go up 8 points.
Why are so many saying going first only offers benefit if scoring 8 points? Last I checked scoring wasn’t automatic. There are several ways to bring about a 3rd possession, and not all OT’s come about because two offenses are unstoppable.
-turnovers, punting, trading fg’s. There are several ways in which the third possession can come about. While I agree with the sentiment of taking the ball second, I don’t think it’s such an obvious choice.
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7 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:
I was extremely excited last season, but going into this season is the most optimistic I’ve EVER been. We are stacked in nearly every facet of the game. I feel like our defense is now getting to the point where they are talented enough to win games on their own, let alone thinking we have a crew of honey badgers on offense. I honestly could see an undefeated season this year if we have a really good draft.
I love your optimism, and this is also the best I’ve felt about an upcoming season in along time. However, adversity is a common theme in the NFL, and the 2022 Bills will face it as well. Most likely that adversity leads to losing a game or two. However, Allen is the key. Depending on his play, your guess could be spot on. If Allen plays anything close to playoff Allen most/all of next season. Man, we will be very hard to beat, much less force a punt 😉
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2 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:
I look at it exactly the opposite way.
Team 1 has little control because they have no way of knowing what team 2 will do. They are trying to score, but then have to decide on going for 2. No matter what they do - they can not win on that first drive - only dictate what team #2 needs to do to win.
Team 2 knows exactly what they have to do to win when they get the ball. Did team 1 punt or kick a FG? Did they score and kick and XP or get stopped at the 45 yard line? Did they get a TD and make a 2 pt or miss the 2 point conversion? Team 2 knows exactly what they have to do to win and prevent team 1 from getting the ball back.
Literally the only way team 1 is guaranteed to get the 3rd possession is a TD and 2 pt on the first drive - even then they don’t win - they only guaranteed a shot with the 3 possession. The 2nd team gets the ball and in most instances has a shot to win the game on their possession.
While I agree with much of what your saying about the reasons for the getting the ball second (especially because we have Allen), I want to make one important correction.
You said the only way for a 3rd possession is if team 1 scores a td and 2pt on the first drive. This is wrong. The 3rd possession can happen multiple ways.
-both team fail to score and punt.
-both teams have turnovers/turnover on downs.
-both teams score field goals-both teams score td and xp
-both teams score td and 2pt
Many of us Bills fans are viewing this OT rule through the lens of the Bills/Chiefs playoff game, and acting as if it’s a given both teams score td’s, but that’s not the case.
6 minutes ago, The Red King said:One advantage to getting it first. If you drive deep but don't score, you punt and pin them very deep, maybe even close to their goal line. Get a three and out and you get good field position and only need a FG now for the win.
Many are not considering this part in having the ball first. This is the reason I keep saying the right answer is highly dependent on the game/game flow.
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12 minutes ago, Billsrhody said:
+1 to this
For all the folks referencing the "advantage" of going second and being able to go for it on 4th down and go for the 2 point conversions. How is that an advantage is the team that goes first can do those things as well (and probably should)?
The team that gets the ball first can go for 4th downs sure, but they also run the risk of giving the second team great field position only needing a fg to win. The second team doesn’t have this worry, because they lose unless they score anyway.
With that being said, the first team would only very strategically go for 4th downs, but I doubt they go into a new set of downs with a 4 a down mentality, where as the second team is thinking this way about every set of downs. They are all 4 down territory. That’s the advantage others are speaking of.
As an example, first team has the ball on their own 30 and it’s 4th and 10. I highly doubt they go for it, where as the second team has no choice. They ARE going for it. But let’s roll this scenario back to 3rd down. Let’s say the first team is at their own 30 and it’s 3rd and 10. That team is looking to gain 10+ yards on the play, where as the second team in the same down, distance, and yardage situation, is at a minimum looking to make the yardage for a first shorter for the 4th down play, not necessarily going for the first on one play.
17 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:
Or it is an old school defensive struggle and you kick off and pin them deep and try to get field position and kick a FG to win on the second possession.
I agree there are a lot of things that can go into the decision and having the ball third is a big advantage, but only if it goes to 3 possessions. If you are in the second position - you have opportunities to control whether there is a 3rd possession.
I think it opens up a lot of options and I can not wait to see what analytics come from this.
I agree, if does open up a lot of options and I’m happy the NFL made this decision. Honestly, it took too long, but this is what OT should have been from the beginning. Honestly, I like this version better than the version the Bills proposed, which was just to play OT out (whatever the time limit is for OT). This way, there is different strategies that can be valid either way, and over time, it will be cool to see which trends develop. The only sad part is, we have to wait until the playoffs and then an OT in the playoffs.
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8 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:
I have a feeling this OT rule is going to bring about a whole bunch of aggressiveness and interesting decisions. Hopefully it works it’s way down into the regular season, because I feel like the fact that the board can’t agree 100% let alone 80% on what to do, some teams are going to play around with it and make it entertaining.
And go for XP or for 2pt? If we are going to take the ball first, there would be no point unless we go for 2 and put up 8 points. Otherwise there is no guarantee Allen gets that 3rd possession advantage.
It is too bad we won’t get to see this in action very often. But, I do like the aspect of having draws in the regular season. Honestly, part of me wishes the NFL would get rid of OT for the regular season. If a draw is a possibility, why have OT and risk injury? I feel like if there is going to be an OT, then there also needs to be a winner.
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6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:
I agree, but I think it applies to a huge % of teams - not just the Bills. Most teams want to control their own destiny and most teams feel they control things when they have the ball.
Therefore to me if I want to control my destiny - I want the ball second with everything on the line and I know exactly what I need to do to win this game. Even if I am a defensive minded guy - I want the opportunity to stop them and know a FG wins.
I want the pressure and the knowledge every time.
See, I disagree here. When considering this question in the general aspect, it can’t be properly answered without one knowing how the game is going. Consider a defense struggle of a game, a field position, old school kind of game. In this type of game, having a 3rd possession and sudden death is an advantage. Especially if the first possession is used to pin the second team deep in their own territory.
The point is, the correct decision will vary from team to team and more importantly, from game to game. I’m some ways, saying that, “we should always take the ball second or defer” is like saying, “we should always go for it on 4th and 1 or less”. Tough decisions/strategies in football are generally situation/game dependent, and I feel that the decision to either receive or defer in OT is the same.
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3 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said:
But it’s not an advantage if the other team scores a TD and elects to go for 2 to beat you. If you have the ball first, I think most teams are going to go for 2 full knowing that the responding team can have 4 downs the whole drive and score a 2 point to beat you so you don’t get that 3rd possession advantage.
Agree, which is why I think it’s a case by case scenario. If I’m playing KC, I’m deferring. I’m likely deferring anyways because you get the extra down, and you get to see if the opponent goes for the XP or 2point, so you know 100% what you need to win.
Your point is in regard to a very specific situation. What I’m saying is, a 3rd possession in sudden death is an advantage. There is no way to argue that it isn’t. A 3rd possession can come about in a few different ways, the how isn’t important, the fact that’s it’s possible is the important part.
I also think your wrong about the first team going for two when scoring a td. I certainly can see it happening, but it would be the exception and not the rule. Only elite offenses or teams with elite qb’s would be so brazen as to go for two on the first possession td.
I’d feel pretty good about the Bills having to stop a td/2pt for the win in just about every situation. Even that ***** Kansas playoff game, I’d be ok with a one play 2pt stop for our defense. I feel like, this is the way the vast majority of NFL coaches would view it as well. But only time will tell.
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4 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:
This is 100% true if you assume the game goes to sudden death. The problem is I think most teams would avoid sudden death.
The only times I see sudden death happening is:
1) 1st team doesn’t score and the second team doesn’t score either - rare, but could happen with 2 defensive teams or weather.
2) 1st team kicks a FG and the second team is stuck in a 4th and long and has to kick the FG. (I believe many teams will go for it on 4th and short to try and win outright).
3) 1st team scores a TD and a 2 pt conversion - then the best the other team can do is tie.
I think in playoff football - a third possession would be rare, but then you are right and getting the ball 3rd would be huge. For me - I want the ball 2nd with all of the data to determine what I need to win and I’ll go from there.
I could be wrong, but I believe your answering this question as a Bills fan, knowing we have Allen. Because we have Allen I agree with what your saying. My overall point was in regards to playoff OT in general and not necessarily our team and Allen.
It really comes down to the type of game/game flow and team composition. Meaning, there isn’t one right answer for all situations/playoff OT’s.
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7 minutes ago, SWATeam said:
The only likely scenario where it goes to sudden death is if the first team kicks a FG and the other team is in a 4th and long situation and matches.
If the first team scores a TD, the second team- if they score- will certainly attempt the 2 vs. giving the ball back to the other team in a sudden death situation.
Knowledge is power and deferring is the obvious choice, outside of a weird weather situation where the wind direction is more important.
You just made a point why there is an advantage to take the ball first. Having the ball first in a sudden death situation (regardless of how it got there) IS an advantage.
There isn’t a right answer to this question. It depends entirely on the team composition, and the flow of the game. Consider a defensive struggle, with both teams having a hard time moving the ball. In that situation, having the bs first in a sudden death situation can make sense. Another factor in this specific scenario (defensive type game), is the first team with the ball could pin the second team near their own end zone. Setting the first team up with a short field in a sudden death situation.
The point is, every game is it’s own game, and the right answer depends game to game, team to team. With our current team and Allen, I think I’d prefer having the ball second, only because I’d trust Allen to get the td and the 2 pt, especially being able to use 4 downs to move down the field/get the td.
Rumor: Bills want to move up in draft, may move a veteran or two to accomplish it
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Why would we trade Diggs in a year we are making a super bowl push? That would greatly hurt our chances, and who knows how Gabe would do with number 1 wr attention.
I see it as highly unlikely we make a move up in the first round, unless it’s just a handful of spots. I also, don’t see us making a hole, to fill the same hole or another. I could see moves like this IF we didn’t sign Von Miller and we were taking a more long term approach. But the Von signing signals we are making a push in the next season or two.