Beck Water
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Posts posted by Beck Water
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17 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:
I think we've underestimated the likelihood that Brady has some planned role in this offense for Hamler or Isabella... whoever wins that 2-way competition. Those 2 guys are basically the exact player that would complement the drafting of Coleman.
The problem with KJ Hamler (and Cephus for that matter) is that they've been plagued by injuries.
Hamler has had two torn ACLs (HS and pro), two hammies serious enough for IR as a pro, a torn pec, and pericarditis. If it weren't for bad injury luck, he'd have no luck at all.
Isabella came out with questions about his hands, and has never managed to get on the field very much. The positive thing is he saw some ST snaps last season - not as the returner, but presumably as a gunner due to his speed.
So if Brady has plans that require a guy with their skillsets, it f'in sucks that we didn't take a draft shot at a similar profile player who hasn't racked up the years of ??If we're talking dark horse WR at the bottom of the roster, Bryan Thompson interests me. He's not a super speedy guy, but the draft profile I found (and I had to dig) had very positive things to say about his route-running abilities and release moves, and concluded he was worth stashing on a PS for a year to see if he could develop. So we signed him as an UDFA and stashed him....now we'll see.
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7 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:
And despite all that he was a top 5 in the league guy.
Yes. That's what makes it frustrating. Cook has the potential to be a talented "freakazoid" for us, if he could clean up those issues a bit.
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I hate to break it to you guys but he ran a 4.62 40 yd dash
3 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:Cook showed last year he can be a featured guy. Top 5 in rushing and scrimmage yards. That said he has to keep doing
He needs to ***** catch the ***** ball and ***** hold on to it. 11.1% drops and 4 fumbles is not acceptable for a featured guy.
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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Of course McD had a part to play but Brandon Beane's constant focus on the DL isn't because of Sean McDermott. It is because of Dave Gettleman and Marty Hurney.
Seriously, people should go and look at the guys Beane learned his trade under. It isn't McDermott's influence that he drafts loads of DL and LBs and RBs and almost no WRs. That is who Carolina were when he was in that front office moving through the ranks.
I think it's both. As a GM, it's Beane's job to supply his HC and coordinators with the players they tell him they need to build a top team. If Sean McDermott didn't insist upon a full DL rotation as a core part of his defensive strategy, Beane wouldn't be constantly focused on signing FA and drafting capable DL players or guys that they are confident they can develop into capable DL players.
What's more, McDermott is - loaded word, but, fixated? on the characters of his DLmen. His defense critically depends upon the DL maintaining run gap integrity and not just pinning their ears back and going after the QB. There's a story that when Andy Reid fired McDermott as DC in Philly after 2 11-5 and 10-6 seasons where the D went from 4th to 19th to 21st, McDermott immediately started gathering feedback from players, coaching assistants, former players. One of the key feedback he reportedly got, from a respected player, was "you got to make sure all your players are bought in (to his system). He took it to heart. That's one reason McDermott is slow to move on from guys he perceives as "bought in" even if they're under-performing or injured excessively (Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, etc), IMO
That said, I had a piece elsewhere before the draft about Carolina's pattern drafting for offense, and I absolutely see echoes of that in how Beane prioritizes defense - he'll say he doesn't, but he does. People like to talk about the Bills drafting Carolina players, but the real issue IMHO is Beane having internalized Carolina's lack of urgency about supplying premier offensive talent to go around their star QB.
But you can see Beane's flexibility in terms of what offense he is supplying. Daboll and Dorsey wanted small speedy guys hence stockpiling Nyheim Hines, McKenzie, Deonte Harty. Looks as though Brady may have different ideas about our offensive identity hence Keon Coleman.6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:I disagree on that. To me the difference is a reload is about moving on older expensive players. A rebuild you are giving away prime age players for assets - what the Commanders did last trade deadline was a tear down for a rebuild. Sell any asset on the roster build picks. Miami when they first ditched Gase and hired Flo did the same. They are rebuilds. That is the distinction IMO.
Agree. "Rebuild" was what McDermott started and Beane continued when he arrived. It was said at the time as a critique of Whaley that the Bills had the fewest drafted players on their roster. But as part of the rebuild, Beane jettisoned any player he could get any kind of reasonable draft pick return from. And many of the guys they jettisoned, went on to play multiple years for other teams, it's not like they can't ball. Darby for a 3rd round pick; Cordy Glenn to move up 9 slots from 21 to 12 in the first round; Dareus for a 5th round and to shed cap etc etc (there are more I forget now). He didn't do that because they had better (at the time) players on the roster, he did that because he was collecting draft capital to move up and get a QB at all costs, so he had to move on from anyone he could get value from.
This was a re-set because we were soldiering on with the same core cast of players hoping to change this and that and get them a ring, and it hasn't worked out, but they've aged out. So we're moving on.
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7 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Yeah and I just can't see Allen putting up with it. Allen has an out after 2025.
Huh? Allen is under contract through 2028
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/25102/josh-allen
Perhaps you are misunderstanding the "potential out" phrase in Spotrac? It indicates the point where the team would take less dead cap hit to trade or cut the player than the cap hit to keep him on the roster. But it's not the player's choice.
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8 hours ago, Nextmanup said:
It doesn't work like that, Dr. Einstein.
You are suggesting 40 times are straight up irrelevant in NFL football.
They are not.Here's an article that suggests, maybe they are
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1 hour ago, BRH said:
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/rQbZnz7LRxn6yWSz/?mibextid=qDwCgo
I love this guy already
With Mack Hollins and Keon Coleman in the room, those WR meetings are NOT gonna be dull
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2 minutes ago, TOboy said:
I think Gabe gets us a 4th, so you’re probably right, any announcement would be May 1.
TBH I'm totally lost. I feel like it's the NFL's equivalent of ESPN's "total QBR", something that requires so much code no ordinary human can understand it.
I want a formula I can sit down with a pencil and paper and a big-button calculator and grind through
I can't even figure out what the floor is for a qualifying contract.
I'll stop griping now
https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks
Anyway, we lost Gabe Davis, who signed for $13M AAV
We lost Leonard Floyd, who signed for $10M AAV
We signed Curtis Samuel, who signed for 3 yr, $24M or $8M AAV but evidently he doesn't count?
Everybody else we lost or signed is apparently too small potatoes.
So it seems to indicate a 4th/5th for Gabe and a 5th/6th for Floyd?
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2 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:
During his end of draft press conference Beane mentioned they worked out a WR today they will end up signing. Regardless of them drafting a wideout to play the boundary I've fully expected the Bills to bring in another boundary WR post draft. So who is it? Given the Brady connections I've expected OBJ or Michael Thomas. Any other thoughts on who it may be?
I dunno, but just to temper expectations I would think any signings would take place after May 1 - or are we 100% out of the comp pick business anyway this season? I would think Gabe Davis and Tyrell Dodson would help us get something....
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41 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
Any line on that being him?
Because as a low cost "see what he's got in the tank" I can think of worse.
6'3, 200 lbs, 4.3 speed, special teams experience and a 1000 yard season in 2019.
He's had a stretch of some injuries, but has had abysmal luck with teams. The last three years have been, in order
Urban Meyer Jags
Detroit right as they started getting consistency
The 2023 Panthers
And he still managed 500 yard seasons the last two years. It's worth seeing if there is some gas in the tank
And with Detroit, he had a decent QB throwing to him in Goff, but he was injured and placed on IR, only played 11 games.
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59 minutes ago, Haplo848 said:
I'm rather amused at all the people who think Keon Coleman is slow. Dude plays at speed. He had the fastest speed of anyone during the gauntlet drill in the past 2 years at the combine, which reflects actual play speed much more than the 40 does. He was even faster than Puka Nacua last year.
Did anyone actually go and watch his 40? Dude's simply not a track star. He started slow because coming out of his stance, he popped up instead of bursting forward. If he had spent more time on the track with someone who knew what they were doing, and could help him with a better start out of his stance, spending time fixing an issue that in no way actually relates to football, he likely would have shaved AT LEAST 0.1 seconds off, likely more. And no one would be talking about him being slow. But they look at that number, decide he's slow, and ignore everything else, especially his play speed.
He LOOKS slow when he's running because his legs don't seem to be moving as fast as you're used to, but when he's trying to outrun people, his stride lengthens, and with his long legs, every one of his strides eats up distance, and he covers ground at a surprising rate.
Right. Josh Allen ran a 4.76. Ask any of the DLmen or LB who've chased him around the back field or any of the LB or DB who've chased him down the field if they think he plays faster than that.
I've noticed that - Coleman looks slow and kind of lumbering when he runs and then you notice all the guys scurrying after him . So we'll see what we'll see when he has 11 guys with NFL speed chasing him.
Article on 40 yd dash usefulness:QuoteAll of this is remarkable, considering the drill has all but lost its utility to front office personnel and data analysts around the league in the modern era.
The 40 is no longer the most effective way to determine a player's speed. The value it once had to teams has diminished in its 80-year existence, as clubs turn toward other means -- such as GPS tracking and analytical data -- to fully understand how fast a player can move in football specific situations.
It quotes one GM, Brandon Beane:
QuoteULTIMATELY, TEAMS VALUE football specific information more than a breakneck 40 time.
"It's play speed, more for us. What am I watching when I'm at a game live?" Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane said. "Do you feel that guy's speed jump off when you're on the field? You can see it on tape, the guys that have it. I've seen guys that are 4.4, but they don't play 4.4, they play 4.5 because they're thinking too much or they just don't have a good feel for the game.
"And then I've seen guys play much faster than they run [in the drill]. They didn't train for it very well, but they play fast, they process and they're really good players. So again, I'm looking more at what do they look like in their pads playing the game, understanding all the concepts more than just, what is that true 40-yard time."
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40 minutes ago, Warcodered said:
Goofy ass sense of humor, plays golf, has a throw it up and I'll come down with it mentality/style of play, yeah this is 100% Josh's guy.
On the highlight tape - the hurdles LOL. STOP THAT, BOTH OF YOU! YOU BOYS STOP THAT RIGHT NOW!
12 hours ago, mannc said:Mitchell had multiple red flags…otherwise he would not have lasted at long as he did. I’m guessing he was off Beane’s board entirely.
I guess this is where sometimes folks wonder if Beane and McDermott's focus on bringing in high-character fellows holds us back.
The Colts took some risks on high ceiling/big red flag guys in Mitchel and the Edge guy with the neck problems. No Riskit, No Biscuit.
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3 hours ago, HOUSE said:
I have no money
for transitional teamsFIFY
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4 hours ago, HappyDays said:
This quote from Beane defines the entire draft strategy:
He is giving it to us straight. The Bills are in a rebuild year. So he went for all team captains. Guys that interviewed well. Guys that he believes set a new foundation of leadership in the building. He hunted for short term needs that fit the singular character profile he and McDermott feel comfortable with, at the expense of talent at premium positions. And he is telling the fanbase to temper our expectations without coming right out and saying it.
I'm not gonna grade a draft until we see how all the players turn out, but the overall philosophy shown this weekend is deflating and uninspiring.
I think this is a fair take. But given the Bills picks, where in particular do you think they could have taken higher talent at more premium positions?
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4 hours ago, Warcodered said:
Him being this entertaining has to make him at least a little bit faster by virtue of it just being tragic if he didn't work out.
But seriously he nailed that press conference, like it was practically Josh Allenish for saying all the right things.
🤣 Not so fast we've already got the footage he only took half a cookie.
Not only that - he offered to share it with the lady reporter "we can go half". Smooooooooth......
I would say he's got the "handle the press corps" down pat.
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47 minutes ago, LEBills said:
without a trade, this is the list of FA WRs availablehttps://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2024/status/available/position/wr/sort/contract_value
Slot guys Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Boyd. Washed up Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson and OBJ. Field stretchers only MVS and DJ Chark. Just don’t see much improvement that route…
I would like to know what DJ Chark has left, myself. He was a legit "fast guy" coming out - 4.31 40-time. He showed he can put up 1000+ yd season with "meh" QB like Minshew and Foles throwing to him.
He had some very bad luck with a broken ankle early in the season for 2021, and then an ankle injury early in 2022 that put him on IR. 500+ yard guy the last 2 seasons despite that and a rookie QB on a bad team in CAR last season.
He's only 27.
On the other hand, if he still has it physically, it would be surprising he's still on the FA market, so IDK.
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2 hours ago, Logic said:
Yes, I grant that he hasn't had many to work with.
The one that he most recently HAS had to work with was Gabe Davis. Davis's limited route variety, stiffness, and lack of separation ability all led to his being thrown to less and less, until by the end of last year he was barely a meaningful part of the passing game at all.
My contention is that if we KNOW Josh does well with the fast, shifty guys, and we know that he has not historically demonstrated the same success with bigger guys -- albeit in a smaller sample size, and albeit with a less impressive group of players overall -- then why take on this experiment and this change in philosophy now?
After we just saw his connection with big, limited, non-separating Gabe Davis deteriorate to the point of non-existence, why go back to the well of that type of WR?Gabe was on the Bills 4 years. In 2021, he had 10 receptions for 242 yds in 2 playoff games. In 2022, starting 15 games, he had 48/836 reg season plus 8/147 in playoffs and in 2023, he had 45/746 regular season. In the latter half of this year where "Josh's connection with big limited non-separating Gabe Davis detereriorated to the point of non-existance" according to you, he had 2 games of over 100 yds: Philly 6 for 105 and LAC 4 for 130. Would you like to find an example of how Josh thrived better with "fast, shifty WRs who separate well" during the latter half of last season? Oh, that's right, you can't - because Khalil Shakir, who was playing very well, had 2 games of over 100 yds, Jets 3/115 and Mia 6/105. But in that latter half, big bodied TE Kincaid had 3 games for 80+ yds.
I would personally say there were other things going on at the end of last season that affected passing game production including but not limited to: Josh's throwing shoulder sprain; a new OC; and whatever tf was going on with Diggs, our #1 receiver, that affected everyone's production.Do you really want to 'hang your hat' on Gabe Davis as an example of how Josh has "not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation"? It seems to me at times, Josh clicked with him Just Fine. The shoe-string sideline catches in the 2020 Indy game, for example, or the 2021 KC game where he went off for 8 catches, 201 yds and 4 TDs. #FACTS: Josh racked up more yards with Davis than he did with anyone else but Diggs. Now you can nitpick that statement, but the fact is, Josh was pretty productive with Davis. He certainly liked to target him downfield, whether he had separation or not, especially after Beasley was gone.
OK, so we've had what? 6? smaller, more shifty WR - Diggs, Beasley, Brown, Sanders, McKenzie, Crowder. 3 of them (Diggs, Beasley, Brown) Josh had arguably more success with than with Davis. 3 of them (Sanders, McKenzie, Crowder) did not seem to have a good connection with Josh; I would say he had a better connection with Davis than with them. Maybe forming a connection might have more to do with the capabilities of the receiver and what other threats were on the field, and less to do with the receiver's size?
Which brings me to where you have a valid point - Gabe Davis was a limited receiver in that he was stiff and ran a limited route tree which, for whatever reason, he couldn't seem to extend. He was also frequently hampered by ankle injuries. But where's the logic to extend that to all big bodied receivers? Are you trying to argue that they're all gonna be stiff and run limited route trees and not develop because Davis was that way, and Fat Kelvin was...well, Fat Kelvin?
That would be.....illogical.
But let's cut to the chase: The Bills didn't draft Keon Coleman at the top of the 2nd because they think he is stiff and runs a limited route tree and can't separate. They drafted him because they think he is a high-ceiling guy with exceptional hands and catching skills, who will be able to use his basketball-derived flexibility and weight shift abilities to rapidly improve his route running and his release moves. If you listen to Beane's presser, he is very explicit about this (17:39): he says Keon has "a really good release package for a college player, kid who's 20" and that "it'll improve - he's gonna play tougher corners so he's gonna have to improve with it" He said "Of the bigger guys, we thought his release was as good as any." Beane doesn't think he's a super-slow guy: he said he has much faster game speed, "noting the Bills had access to his GPS information in college, which pegged him closer to the 4.5 range". Beane said he is good against press.
So, one of two things is true: Either Beane and his scouts assessment of Coleman is correct, and he'll develop in to "all that and a bag of chips" and be able to fill that X receiver role; Or, they're mistaken, and the various media draft scouts and pundits are correct.
But I don't think it has anything to do with Josh thriving more with small shifty receivers than with big, above-the-rim, wide catch radius guys. It has everything to do with the quality of Brandon Beane and his scouts' player personnel evaluation abilities.
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17 minutes ago, Logic said:
True or false: The most successful connections Josh Allen has forged in his NFL career have come with smaller bodied (relatively speaking) WRs whose strengths are route running and separation.
IT'S A TRICK!
It's true, but meaningless; what big-bodied WR catch meister WR has Allen had the opportunity to form a connection with? The only one I can think of is 2018 Fat Kelvin, who, as I noted above, was RIP at the time with the only pass he was interested in being preceded by "puff, puff,..." He had the lowest catch rate in the league at the point where we released him, commentators had been noting his lack of effort on the field for weeks, and neither the Mahomes-led Chiefs nor the Giants
@Logic, you started this out by stating "Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation." When, other than rookie year with Fat Kelvin, in Josh's 6 years in the league, has he played with "big bodied WR", whether they struggle with separation or not?
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44 minutes ago, Warcodered said:
I'd love to know who the high talent big body guys they've put on this team with Josh Allen we have to make this assessment that he doesn't do well with them. From my memory Josh Allen does well with short shifty WRs because Josh Allen has short shifty WRs.
I had exactly the same question.
The only big-bodied WR I can recall Josh Allen having on the Bills was Fat Kelvin Benjamin, for 12 weeks during which he seemed RIP (retired in place), with the league's worst catch rate of 35%. It wasn't just Josh Allen, either, since after the Bills cut him the Chiefs (with Pat Mahomes on pace for an MVP season) picked him up, and couldn't get anything out of him.
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15 minutes ago, scuba guy said:
Ok another tackle from England
But he is short at 6 foot 7
LOL I came here to say, "what, we wanted a guy Spencer Brown could call 'shorty'?
6 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:Niiice, does that mean he can not get poached?
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12 minutes ago, DJB said:
Punt return guy that plays nickel
I think he also ran one of the top 10 fastest 40’s this year
Punt return guy, OK that explains it. I was like 5'9" CB with 8" hands and 30" arms, WTF Beane?
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5 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:
O receptions for 0 yards. But yes, he's under 4.4.
Right. Excellent point. What's your conclusion from that?
Mine:
1) just because a guy has legit sub-4.4 speed doesn't mean he will succeed in the NFL
2) just because a guy doesn't have sub-4.4 speed, doesn't mean he won't succeed in the NFL
3) if you want a guy who is the complete package as a draft prospect, figure out how to get to the top of the 1st round
4) otherwise, pick a guy who has traits you value and gaps you think you can coach up
Obviously Beane didn't want to give up whatever he would have had to give up, to get to the top of the 1st round, so he's going by 4)
Isabella, in particular, indicates the paradox that sub-4.4 speed and college success don't assure NFL competence. He was drafted in the 2nd round by the Cardinals because of his combination of both elite speed AND quickness with "the feet and the fakes to uncover in a hallway closet". He has a relative athletic score of 96. But his scouting report also noted "Restricted escape angles against press could offer challenge.....Can be shoved off the route path by solid contact. Obvious catch-radius limitations due to size. Chronic body catcher. Rolling starts lead to excessive false-start penalties." Obviously, the Cards hoped they could coach those things up, and 5 years later teams are still hoping.
You can't coach speed (you can train to improve it, obviously), but there are other traits like elite catching skills and physicality which are also apparently hard to coach. -
11 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:
We have one guy below 4.4 speed on offense. Just saying 2 would be nice.
We have two. Samuel and Isabella. Cook is dang close with a 4.42 40-time, as well.
Now you can say you don't think they're the right guys, or we need different guys or better guys, but that's different from saying we don't have guys.
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19 minutes ago, VW82 said:
Sure. Josh makes bad decisions and throws into coverage sometimes, especially if it's to a trusted option like Diggs.
More often than not, his time to throw is a little on the high side and it's because he won't throw unless he sees someone open. He'll scramble for more time just to give guys more time to get open. Contrast this to other QBs who will actually throw guys open.
Processing when and who to throw to is still one of the areas Josh can really improve.
We can't argue the result (time to throw IS on the high side) but we 100% disagree on the cause.
It's nuts to me to believe Josh won't throw unless he sees someone open. He got away from that in 2020, when he learned to throw to the spot even on option routes and trust the WR to choose the same option, which, with Beasley and with Diggs when he and Josh were tight, was usually well-placed trust. Some of Josh's picks last year were because he and the WR weren't reading the defense the same way and he threw it to a place the WR wasn't. Others were because he trusted Gabe Davis to come down with the ball or Diggs to make it "my ball or no one's ball", and his trust was misplaced.
I think Josh's time to throw is on the high side because he has that "Brett Favre says touchdowns first, Coach!" mentality and he doesn't want to take the short pass to the open guy, instead he'd rather extend and see if he can find someone open deep on a scramble drill, not because he will only throw to a wide open receiver.
All that said - I 100% agree that processing who to throw to given the defense is one of the areas where Josh can really improve.
New Bills WR. Former Lion Quintez Cephus
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by Beck Water
I don't know where you're finding that. He had 0 catches last season, because he was suspended indefinitely by the league last April for gambling on games, and re-instated this April.
He had 2 catches the previous year (2022), that would be in part because he was put on IR (can't find for what. 2021, also IR with shoulder injury.
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/quintez-cephus/32004345-5042-2041-b441-60bc9cb55ad1
Basically another guy who "if he didn't have bad luck with injuries, he'd have no luck at all" - he had a broken leg that cost him a college season.
But he also has some shady ***** in his past besides the gambling suspension
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quintez_Cephus
Does make it kind of puzzling that the Bills seem to hold up their noses at recent draft picks who may have issues.