Beck Water
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Posts posted by Beck Water
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10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
One, I was high on him coming into the draft and you can see that in my posting history. So this isn’t me “wanting” to be happy with the pick, it’s me being happy with the pick because I spent a lot of time on the WRs this year, including talking to people I trust.
Everyone is going to have different opinions, but all the whining (not saying you) and labeling the kid as a bust or capping his potential by people around here who know nothing about him or that getting separation and open has very little to do with 40 times is as over the top as it was on Josh Allen, Bernard, Milano, etc.
Let the kid play. He’s gonna prove a lot of people wrong around here and I’m very confident about that personally.
Receipts: what was your take on Josh Allen, Matt Milano, and Terrel Bernard?
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On 4/27/2024 at 9:52 PM, NORWOODS FOOT said:
I’m not sure Collins is a lock. Hoping some of these young-bloods beat him out actuallyWe did give him guaranteed money, but it's not such a large amount we couldn't move on without flinching (by NFL standards) - $1.5M or so
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On 4/27/2024 at 10:11 PM, GASabresIUFan said:
Thanks for the list. Maybe I should re-phrase. How many have made the active roster? It looks like Alec Anderson, Jonathan Kingsley and Ingram. Q. Morris as well?
List I gave is only guys who signed to the 53 and were active 1 or more games
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On 4/27/2024 at 7:47 PM, JGMcD2 said:
These UDFA OL seem to be pretty competitive options?
It feels like we’re fairly deep on the OL as it stands, drafted 3 more, interesting these guys would come here?
Oh, wow, I disagree - After cutting Morse and moving McGovern to center and backup David Edwards to G, I thought we were thin on IOL
And then of course there was Ryan Van Demark as the swing tackle
The draftees were late rounders, so I guess the UDFA feel they can compete?
On 4/27/2024 at 9:00 PM, GASabresIUFan said:How many UDFA have made the Bills in the last 5 years?
I think 11 or so
I assume you mean guys who came to the Bills as rookies and signed to the active roster here, not UDFA that developed elsewhere like Mario Williams or Kumerow
From 2019 to 2023:
Ryan Bates (he initially signed to Steelers but came here as a rook)
Reggie Gilliam
Quintin Morris
Ryan Van Demark
Antonio Williams
CJ Brewer
Tyrel Dodson
Prince Emili
Ja'Marcus Ingram
Kingsley Jonathan
Cam Lewis
Fundamentally looks like 2 per year or so
Mostly sign to practice squad and get elevated fora few games their 1st year
Edit: Dang, I missed Alec Anderson, who was on the 53 but never active in a game.
That means I probably missed a couple more
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18 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Welcome to the football messageboard since forever
Been here far longer than you, yung'un - at least under your current screen name.
You were saying "nobody thinks they know more than an actual NFL front office. "
My point was, on this message board (which is one of the better around the league as far as I've found) - sure they do.
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12 minutes ago, sven233 said:
I don't think so really. I man, you could make the argument for a guy like Christian McCaffrey being the closest thing to a RB that is a true #1 type of target, but honestly, it's not the same thing.
No, it's not the same thing, but I think a person could make a legit case that McCaffery is the player on the 49ers that is most responsible for keeping opposing DCs awake late. > 2000 Yds from scrimmage in a single season will do that. 2nd place would probably be Deebo Samuel.
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2 hours ago, Low Positive said:
Ravens just this last year. No one had over 900 yards receiving and only Flowers had over 600. They won 13 games. It was Lamar that strikes the fear. https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/bal/baltimore-ravens
I'm not sure the Ravens are a good example.
They're one of three NFL teams (two very successful) who have more rush attempts than pass attempts.
In fact, the Ravens were #30 in the league for passing attempts. The other two are the SF49'ers (#32 for passing attempts) and the Bears were #27.
So a team can be successful in the NFL that way, obviously, but can they be a successful, high powered passing offense that way? The 49'ers legitimately were - #4 for passing yards despite #32 for passing attempts. The Ravens, not so much - bottom 3rd of the league.
The 49ers do spread it around pretty well, but I would argue that Aiyuk with 105 targets is their #1. Still they had 4 guys with >80 targets, so maybe they kind of make your case - I think defenses are far more scared of Christian McCaffery than they are of Aiyuk.
I would still argue on the Ravens, low-powered as their passing offense was, Zay Flowers was the #1. He had 40% more targets and more than twice the receptions of anyone else.
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7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:
I guess you and OP can pat each other on the back from your emotional high ground? Like what is the point of this seriously, nobody thinks they know more than an actual NFL front office.
Let's just say that there appears to be no functional difference between some of the stuff people have posted in the last 4 days, and the posts someone who thought they know more than an actual NFL front office might make.
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7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:
The overwhelming majority of negative posts re this latest draft are reasonable critiques imo
op is tilting at windmills
Well, now.
I can't say as I've gone and counted them all, but I have a pretty damned healthy ignore list nowadays - and I've still been overwhelmed by the amount of unreasonable, name-calling, insult-slinging, frothing at the mouth disparaging posts.
There are some negative posts that are IMO reasonable critiques and fair points well made. I wouldn't give them a majority, much less an overwhelming one, but as I admit, I haven't actually gone and counted them all.
9 hours ago, Success said:Not to disparage anyone here - but I always crack a smile when I see someone complain about a pick because of where they had that player on "their board."
I'm always kind of curious, too: how did they put their board together? Did they scour film of a huge # of collegiate players, all day, every day of the year? Did they go to games and workouts? Did they rigorously compare players at various positions with others who spent as much time as them watching and evaluating?
Because those are the things Beane & our scouts do. I have a hunch that most here look at mocks for a few months, and check some youtube on only the top players - and that's about it.
There are actually some guys here who take their mock drafts incredibly seriously. They watch every game they can get their hands on, take notes, make grades, compare grades, go back and review.
So they definitely put a lot more effort into it than looking at mocks and watching some Youtube highlights. I'm impressed, year after year.
They still don't have access to a fraction of the game information the scouts do - the gps data, the coaches film, etc etc.
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9 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:
Fans are notoriously lousy at assessing draft picks. Many of us criticized Beane when he picked Josh in the draft while few of us offered up flowers when he chose Milano. And, look, talent evaluation is hard. Go back and look at what sportswriters said five years ago about the draft. Their hit rate isn’t high. Even the analytic guys, armed with their algorithms and statistical analyses, aren’t good. They told us that if Josh became a successful NFL QB, it would shake the very foundations of all math, science, and human knowledge.
LOL. A few years back I wanted to know what the hit rate of various sportwriters actually was
I couldn't find most of their grades or mocks online. They not only lack the professional accountability that professional scouts have - they actively hide their work from people who might want to check them 3 or 5 years down the road.
Anyway, the foaming at the mouth, gnashing of teeth, and beating of breasts about WR this draft does in fact remind me of the foaming at the mouth which occurred after Josh was drafted, and really didn't let up for about 3 1/2 years (mid-season 2020)
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7 hours ago, ShakAttack said:
Sorry if this was already posted, but here is a good video. While it does confirm that Coleman struggles with separation on deep routes, you can see him doing very well in creating separation on other routes.
The film of his struggles to separate vertically starts around 6:20.
After that, you will see some impressive route running in which Coleman is successful in separating from DBs.
Enjoy.
Good find. Hopefully the Bills WR room will work overtime to help him improve
But, the bottom line I take from this is that drafting him did NOT add the vertical threat we've been lacking
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1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:
He loved Kelvin Benjamin too. While everyone gets faster, we get big, sluggish, late round fliers, street FAs, and UDFAs to support our HOF QB.
C'mon Man.
2020: traded 1st round pick for proven successful NFL WR
2021: no offensive skill players
2022: 2nd round RB who has had 2254 combined scrimmage yds in 2 seasons
2023: 1st round TE who pulled in 73 receptions his rookie season
2024: 2nd round WR said to excel at contested catches, an ability we haven't had
That's not consistent with the picture you paint of "big sluggish late round fliers, street FA and UDFA"
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1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:
What I’m getting from my question is you don’t really need a #1 wide receiver, just a guy that teams have to account for more and that can be relied on to make catches. I think that guy for us is Kincaid.
Well, kind of.
You need receivers who can force the defense to defend the entire field horizontally and vertically. Practically speaking, that means you need a QB who can scare the defense knowing that he can put the ball anywhere on the field, and he needs a receiver who can get downfield before the pass protection breaks down so that if the defense fails to account for him or lets him blow by them, they'll pay.
But in a modern NFL defense, that receiver doesn't necessarily have to be the guy who gets the most targets.
5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:Good answer. So the emphasis on a #1 WIDE receiver may be misplaced.
In my opinion, Yes, but you need that guy who releases well enough and is fast enough to get downfield and make the opposing DC say "shiver me timbers!"
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13 minutes ago, Bangarang said:
You know what a #1 receiver is without having it defined for you. This is like asking what a franchise QB is and saying we could get by with a guy like Tyrod because Nick Foles won a SB at one point.
I disagree with the first, but the analogy is perfect. Back on the BA days of this board (Before Allen), we would see it all the time that people who had different ideas of what a franchise QB was, would argue vehemently about which QB were or weren't and who could be for us, without troubling to have it defined for them. A lot of those arguments could have been cut short by just....SAYING WHAT WAS MEANT
Moral of the story: Don't assume someone knows what a Franchise QB or a #1 Receiver is without having it defined for them, explain what you mean by it.
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1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:
I keep reading how we have to go find a true #1 WR. That begs the question: what is a #1 WR? A guy that makes X catches a year? Demands double teams? What?
I ask because the team we keep trying to beat, the team who has won several Lombardis in recent years, doesn’t seem to have a #1 WR. So how do they win? They have a #1 TE. Does that count? Is so than can Kincaid count as ours?
Good post.
People 100% use the phrase "#1 receiver" in different ways, meaning different things, and it leads to people talking at cross purposes.
The conventional meaning of "#1 receiver" is the guy who commands the lion's share of the targets. He does this by being fast enough to threaten downfield; having the release moves/size/strength to get off the line against press man and not get shoved off his routes by physical DB play; being athletic enough to come down with contested catches; being able to run all the routes.
Lately, where modern offenses spread the ball all over the field, exercise RPOs, and make use of choice routes, "#1 receiver" sometimes gets used synonymously with "X" or "Boundary" receiver, the guy who stretches the field vertically and loosens things up for the intermediate routes across the middle.
Sometimes people use "#1 receiver" to mean guy who gets the most targets, whether or not he threatens downfield. By that definition, Kelce has been KC's #1 receiver since they traded Tyreek Hill in the 2022 off season - but even before that, Tyreek kind of made his living 5-10 yds from the LOS and turned them into 17 yd gains with YAC, so he got the #1 share of the targets but wasn't that prototypical boundary/field stretcher guy.
Think I covered it and if people disagree I feel total certainty they will Let Me Know
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5 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
I think I see what Beane is trying to do with WRs. A great ability to have is unpredictability. It's good to have the ability to spread the ball around, find the mismatches and exploit them.
However, I'm kind of tired of the constant questions at WR. Last year was "hoping" Sheffield and Harty were more than they had ever been. They weren't. Or "hoping" John Brown or Cole Beasley could be brought back mid season and regain their past play. They didn't. "Hoping" Gabe Davis could take the step to be a consistent #2 WR and possibly one day a #1. He couldn't. So on and so forth.
I get it, not every spot can be filled with an NFL All-Pro. Role players are useful. Just once though I would love to have more answers than questions at WR. This year it's "How will Coleman fit?" It's "Man, maybe Shavers or Short can step up". "Can Andy Isabella have a late age growth spurt and make it to 5'5" tall?" "Can KJ Hamler (who I do think at least has some potential skill) stop doing Marquise Goodwin impressions?"
Just one year can we not have Josh Allen throwing to the Island of the Misfit Toys?
To be fair, we weren't exactly hoping that Sherfield and Harty were more than they ever had been.
At least, I would have been happy if Sherfield could have repeated his 30 catch, 417 yd performance from 2022 with Miami, and if Harty had repeated his 30 catch, 570 yd performance from his previous healthy season in 2021.
But these are small points. Overall, the bottom line is I was hoping we could bring our WR talent back to 2022 levels and instead it's looking 2019-like, which was Not Good Enough.
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23 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said:
With all the offseason moves, and adding just Coleman in the draft, did we do enough or will Beane look to trade or add a free agent after Trey’s money frees up?
I for one can’t believe we are finished, how about you?
No, I don't think we did enough
As for whether we're finished....I didn't think we did enough at MLB last season. As it turned out, it was the best of times (Beane was correct that the answer was on our roster, and Terrel Bernard really stepped up) and it was the worst of times (once we lost Milano and schemed up a thing where Dodson and Poyer platooned, we had no legit backup for Bernard)
I think the best case scenario is that we're in a similar situation - the best of times would be that Coleman proves capable of starting and contributing on at least a Gabe Davis level, and that Samuel and Shakir take turns platooning at the other outside WR position while we run a lot of 1,1 and 1,2 sets where we only have 2 WR on the field anyway.
The worst case scenario though, is what's our plan if one of those guys gets hurt.
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35 minutes ago, Logic said:
Yeah. Apparently Beane said Coleman "will have a hard time starting in year 1". Something to that affect.
Would you mind providing a linky to that, because it's nothing at all that I heard Beane say
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52 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Whoa, whoa, whoa! You're misreading into what I said. I don't know how you're getting all of that because I never said any of that.
I was NOT saying the WR room is fine with my post and that we shouldn't add anyone else.
What I was saying was that a few minutes after the Draft, Beane saying during a presser "we worked out a guy today we're going to end up signing" always implied it was someone who wasn't a name signing like a DJ Chark or someone along those lines.
Like I said - healthy, productive just last season, name players don't "work out". And if they did do that, it wouldn't be on Draft Day. That's a situation of talking to assistants and being worked out by positional coaches with Beane not having time to meet with them and probably just reviewing a tape and taking others word that they're good. Someone we're paying millions to, Beane is going to dedicate some time to seeing in person and meeting with.
It was clearly someone that is on the fringe, someone who needs to prove they're healthy, or someone who was out of football for a year or more for us to "work them out". In this case, it was the latter.
Also, we've got like 3m in Cap Space right now. Someone like Chark or like him is going to cost more than that. Also, to do it now instead of a little over a month from now would cost us a Comp pick.
So anything like that will come after June 1st. And I do hope we look into adding someone at that point. My post was just to say that if you really analyzed the situation from all angles, thinking that statement meant it was going to be one of the name FA left was to be short sightedly setting yourself up for disappointment. It was obvious to me with what was said it was going to be something like this.
But he doesn't preclude us from signing someone like a DJ Chark on or after 6/1 and I would expect that we would.
Just a few days. I believe the comp pick deadline is 4 pm May 1
As far as what Chark would cost, I imagine that's why he's still on the market. in 2022, he signed 1 year, $10M with Detroit. They can't say they got their money's worth with 11 games, 53 targets, 502 yds.
Then he signed 1 year, $5M with Carolina. 66 targets for 525 yds not much better value for that.
My guess is that Chark wants something similar, which is why teams are holding back.
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6 hours ago, HappyDays said:
Oh my God. It's really going to happen. Mack Hollins is going to be our primary #2 outside WR. That is actually the plan.
I don't think that's the plan, but for goodness sake, step back off the bridge. I'm growing concerned for your health and safety.
The season starts in September, not tomorrow
5 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:
Beane actually had to mention that they were signing someone and this is the guy?Yeah, in hindsight, Beane should have kept it zipped
It was bad PR to mention a raggle tag long shot the day of general fan disappointment about the Bills draft selections.
1 hour ago, HappyDays said:It's my own fault. When Beane said they were in the process of signing someone I envisioned DJ Chark or something along those lines, not an above average WR by any means but a baseline outside WR that at least gives us better pass catching ability than Mack Hollins. I should have known better.
Mea Culpa as well, that was my vision...but with 20/20 hindsight I should have realized they aren't gonna sign anyone who might interfere with the comp picks until after May 1 or maybe after June 1 when we get Tre's money
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1 hour ago, Freddie's Dead said:
FTFY.
I'm impressed. I had to look that one up.
15 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:Not at all suspicious numbers for a guy busted for gambling.
Just to be clear, two different convos got quoted in the post you're replying to. The 4.62 40 yd is regarding Quintez Cephus, though apparently his pro day was faster
The exhortation about catching and holding on to the Duke was regarding Cook, who was a top RB in yards last season but who needs to develop his hands to be a top receiving threat
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
I do agree thar we haven't prioritised offensive assets - wide receiver in particular even nearly enough. But I am 100% confident that would have been the case wherever Brandon Beane was the GM and whoever his Head Coach was. So long as Beane has personnel control he will prioritise defensive line, linebackers and running backs. It is Carolina 101.
Well, we're gonna have to agree to disagree on this one. I think Beane prioritizes what the coach wants much more than you believe.
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1 hour ago, PBF81 said:
There is no strategy in building the O. Consider, we threw Singletary and Moss overboard with the statements that we wanted to get faster on offense and highlighted Cook. Then we turn around and draft all but a Moss clone in round 4 this season. None of our offensive strategy makes much sense and there certainly is zero consistency from season to season, either in coaching or in methodology as to what our Offense is supposed to look like, ... other than for letting Allen be personally responsible for 75%+ of the production.
A good GM will try to acquire players the OC identifies as necessary to execute his vision of the offense.
After 4 years of relative consistency under Daboll, the Bills have now had 3 OCs in as many years.
Why would one expect consistency from changing OCs with different visions as to what our offense should look like? Dorsey's vision of the offense appeared to involve small shifty guys (McKenzie, Hines, Harty, even Shakir). So far, it looks like Joe Brady's vision of the offense involves more power and less finesse.
Week 1 thru 10 with Dorsey as OC the Bills were a heavily pass-favored team, and it wasn't always working - whether because of the receivers, or because of Josh Allen's sprained throwing shoulder, I don't know. 58% pass, 42% run.
Week 11 thru 18 with Brady as OC, the Bills were a run-favored team, 48% pass, 52% run
Whether that was driven by the personnel at hand, or reflects what Brady really wants to do with a free hand, I don't know - but I would say that moving on from Mitch Morse to Connor McGovern and drafting Coleman would argue that Brady wants the offense to look different.
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3 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:
Translation available?
Aaron Quinn believes both Shorter and Cephus will show out well in training camp and preseason, generating a lot of "buzz" amoung excessively enthusiastic and devoted fans (stans = stalkers + fans) who will gather together in a vocal support group (hive).
Basically that they're gonna be the new Isaiah Hodgins
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Beane on WR "We worked out a guy today we are going to end up signing"
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Happy, I Get It. You're Super Extra Salty right now at what the Bills have done. I'm not happy myself, but I do think some perspective is needed. You're letting it warp your assessments here. I'm not saying remember Shorter or count on Shorter, but Zierlein had him as a 5th round WR, whom we drafted with Pick 15 in the 5th round.
https://www.nfl.com/prospects/justin-shorter/32005348-4f65-1252-2fb4-216da3af656d. To me, he's a guy who was the top WR prospect in the country coming out of HS and with 2 different programs, couldn't quite make it work at the collegiate level. AND, he's struggled with hammy injuries, same as what put him on IR all last season.
I think the Bills believe Coleman is their #2, and their #1 is a combo of Shakir and Samuel - don't forget they did make that addition. Whether that's tenable or not, Time Will Tell.
I do think that the Bills were looking at the guys they have as developing WR when they were getting into the 5th round of this year's draft, and said "no one we like better than the guys stashed at home". That's not saying the guys we had stashed have a very good chance of contributing, but the same is true of a WR drafted this year in the 5th round or later.