Beck Water

It was well played, very well played!

Pssssssssssssst…..look at your calendar…….

I liked “how do you have a party in outer space?” And “why did the belt get arrested?”

Josh: "Did you know the average person is really mean?" (Blank stare from Micah) Josh: "It's a math joke"

Well Played, Bills Media Team. Well Played! And that Tasker Chair Flip - Beautiful!

Yes, that was an especially nice touch.

I think he's a Whiteboard Wizard and fantastic at film, he either just can't process correctly in real time in the field and/or his brain writes checks that his arm can't cash

Not Peyton Manning, but most 2nd stringers are guys the team hopes can go 50/50 in games if they have to play for 2-4 games. You want a guy who will give you at least 1.5 TD per INT and 200+ ypg. Taylor Heineke in Washington is the prototypical example: 3 seasons in Washington, 12-11-1, 34 TD 21 INT 208 Y/G. Not championship stuff, but good enough to win with a stout defense. Earlier in his career, Case Keenum most definitely fit into this category. Chad Henne probably. Not sure Kyle Allen is quite good enough; the W are good enough in Carolina, the TD/INT were good enough in Washington; neither were good enough in Hou last year - is he recovered enough from that horrific dislocated ankle and broken leg? Peterman doesn't have enough on-field talent to deserve to be a backup; sorry, he just doesn't. 53 ypg, 4 TD and 13 INT will NOT cut it. There's a lot of room between a "Secret Peyton Manning" and a guy who can get you a 1.5 TD/INT ratio and 200 ypg. What I think Peterman's got, that keeps coaches coming back to him, is a head for the game. I joke that his whiteboard and film room abilities must be off the charts. He's fundamentally "Catnip for Coaches"

What is the date? Looks like they gotcha!

OK, let's break this down. Hamlin wasn't the 3rd string safety, he was the leading backup before he went down. He made $1.45M last season (with playing time bonuses) He is scheduled to make $940k this season and $1.055M next season. Granted these amounts aren't hugely higher, but they are higher than $700k - between 34% and 200% higher, which is real $ to most of us I don't know if Damar's appearances pay, or what appearances pay, but those $$ seem high for appearance money for medical groups like AHA, and his appearances aren't likely to last as next season rolls on. We don't know (and probably Hamlin doesn't know) if he can play again. Still completing medical evaluations and follow ups, probably still working with a pulmonologist to try to improve lung function and capacity, then he needs to get back into his best football shape and see if he still has it, athletically. Then there's the mental aspect - can he cheerfully deal out and receive hits after what he went through? Does he want to? We don't know how the Bills view him relative to Rapp, but like any elite athlete (and make no mistake - backups and PS guys in the NFL are very elite athletes), if he does play, doubt Hamlin is conceding he's 3rd string to Rapp. I think if there were genuinely zero chance, he'd know it and McDermott would know it and they'd just announce it. JMO.

I'd be happy for Knox's receptions and yardage to be improved at the expense of reduction elsewhere. Take 1/2-2/3 of the difference between Gabe Davis 93 targets and Knox 65 targets, many of which were forcing Davis the ball on a low percentage throw or even a throw away. Target Dawson Knox instead. Give him 14-20 more targets at 10.8 yds/pop, 150-200 more yards. Davis will look better as a receiver with a higher catch % from not seeing the ball unless it's a surer bet. The Bills will hopefully collect another 5-7 1st downs, because more than half Knox receptions went for 1st downs The only way to do this is to target him more when the game's not on the line, so the opponent learns they better pay attention to him - and that will open up other guys. I read this as "both", and I agree. There were plenty of passing plays with quick hits available. They need to be utilized. Now as to how the plays are designed to be read - if true that they're always being read deep to shallow (I'm not sure about that, but sometimes they are), that needs to change.

Well, according to this link, the Giants and the Dolphins were lower, and the Bengals only a couple % points better. But to that point...both the Bengals and the Dolphins have two legit #1 receiving targets. The Bills last year, did not - and Dawson Knox had the best catch % of any receiver on the team, with 10.8 Y/R so he wasn't just catching dump-offs. So it was a mystery to me at the time why he wasn't targeted more. Meaning no offense to Joe Marino, and perhaps you mis-remember or mis-quote slightly, but Knox was, in fact, asked to chip or block quite a lot last season. Beane and McDermott both referenced this in their end-of-season pressers where, unlike pressers in FA and pre draft, they're discussing what's already happened and are usually straightforward. That said, I agree completely with the rest - even when he chipped and released, Knox was often open underneath and also open on routes to my eyes. Caveat, that's not the rating that ESPN thing someone linked gave him - he didn't score highly on being open.

@Chaos was responding to a query about why he seems to be sliding in the draft. The reason he's sliding/not drawing as much buzz, is not 🥁 because of positives. The query can't be answered without negatives. You didn't vote. Putcha vote where your post is

So many moving pieces! 1) if there's less need for Knox to chip and block, I would hope he could become more productive in the passing game 2) BUT, the other questions are - how is Dorsey using Knox in the passing game? I can't point at metrics, but my sense is that Dorsey was not as good at scheming the TE open than Daboll, and Daboll was not as good as Reid/his offensive assistants are. - has Knox himself developed the physical aspect of his game running routes? He developed this "Rambo" rep after he trucked and ran over a couple guys early in his career, but I don't think he scores very high on the route separation metrics. The Cover1 guys pointed out a couple times that despite the Rambo reputation, he really isn't a very physical player. He doesn't try the subtle (and sometimes not subtle) push offs and arm-overs and so forth of a Kelce. He's developed in the last couple years but has he developed enough? - If he's well used in the scheme and physical/polished enough in his route running to get open, WILL ALLEN TARGET HIM? I need to take off my shoes to count the number of times last season I saw Knox nicely open underneath while Allen chose a much riskier throw - but Knox would have either gained solid yardage making it 2nd or 3rd and short, or even gained the 1D. Great questions, but too many unknowns to answer

I don't disagree that Davis needs to get better. Josh stated after the game that he was trying to "dirt" the ball to throw it away. Why would he say that if it were a "normal" low throw? We will have to agree to disagree on your interpretation of what happened on that play.

We'll have to agree to disagree there. I think Beasley was being held before the ball got there, and should have played the ball differently - extended his hands for the catch instead of trying to body-catch it, possibly taken a step towards the throw - both of which might have made the holding more obvious to the refs. Josh was forcing it a bit, but not outrageous like some of his other INTs. But, IMHO, the majority of Josh's INTs were far more on Josh than on the WR, poor decisions or poor throws. And I don't say this because I'm historically easy on WR and hard on Josh - to the contrary.

I dunno. Tampa Bay won the division at 8-9. The Falcons were 7-10 and lost ~4 games by 3 points or less and one by 4 points, including a game against NO they lost by 1 point. There's the axiom, get to the playoffs and anything can happen. But you know, Ty Dunne has to collect clicks somehow.

It makes perfect sense for Jim to feel that way. He wants Josh to have what he had, in Thurman Thomas. I'm not sure it makes perfect sense for the Bills to go after a star running back at this point. They just used a high draft pick (2nd) on a good pass catching RB who gained 5.7 Y/A and converted 25 1D on 89 touches last season, plus another 5 1D and 8.6 Y/R in the passing game. Kid only saw 269 snaps; if he can handle a larger workload, he could contribute very nicely. The thing is, Jim and Thurman also had Howard Ballard, Kent Hull, Jim Ritcher, and Will Wolford on OL.

Having watched a bunch of those throws, I disagree. One INT, in the Jets game, Josh threw to a spot where Davis wasn't. Josh took responsibility, and clearly one of them was wrong about where Davis should be, but I don't think we can know who it was. Steelers game - DB was between Davis and the ball, in perfect position to jump it - could argue that Josh expected Davis to run his route differently, one of them wrong The other 4, were balls that should not have been thrown. GB game - Josh dirted the ball yards short of Davis on one, on the other made an off-target throw back to the middle of the field, intercepted miles before it got to Davis. Two bad throws that shouldn't havebeen made. Vikings game - Bad throw way short of Davis with defender between Davis and the ball. Defender jumped the route. NE game - dangerous throw intercepted by McCourty way short of Davis, should not have been thrown, nothing Davis could have done There are two reasons why INTs are occuring at an anomalous rate. One is that the WR is making mistakes or not being sure-handed with the ball, like the ball that bounced off Beasley's chest into a defender's hands in the MIA playoff game. The others are that the QB is making bad decisions or bad throws, or that the team's self-scouting on what plays they call in different situations is poor, and defenders anomalously know what's coming.

While there is uncertainty as to whether Damar will play (and perhaps as to whether White will resume his old form) I would think they would try to bring in a couple more players. I'm thinking 5-7th round. It's not a tough prediction since the Bills have drafted 1 or more DB 5th-7th rounds every year Beane has been GM. Most have them have stuck on the team. DBs drafted in these rounds include (2018) 5th - Siran Neal (plus Taron Johnson in the 4th) (2019) 6th - Jaquan Johnson (2020) 7th- Dane Jackson (2021) 6th - Damar Hamlin, Rachad Wildgoose (2022) 6th - Christian Benford Rachad Wildgoose is the only one who didn't stick on the Bills, and he's started games for the Jets (2021) and for the Commanders (2022) and is still on their roster. Jaquan Johnson is the worst of them, and he's played 60 games for us in the last 4 years, with a starting role on ST. But, I think people who thought we might draft a safety early may be able to stand down.

No need to cut Jaquan Johnson. As you noted, it was his 4th season. He was a FA, and we moved on.

I think that’s too rich for the Bills blood.

No anecdote needed. It’s factually documented by pro-football-reference https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022_advanced.htm 6 while targeting Davis, 3 targeting Knox, 2 targeting McKenzie But, is that on Davis, or on Allen for forcing the ball in there? Or somewhat on Dorsey for not realizing that play ha been ing nosed by D’s and he needed to put it in the back of the playbook? I’m going with most were more on some combination of Allen and Dorsey.

I guess “not a lot of hoes” is where we’ll have to agree to disagree. We went into last season, IMO, not having done enough on the OL. Basically, added Rodger Saffold coming off a shoulder injury and that’s it. We also went into the season on hope that Gabe Davis and McKenzie would work out as starters and that Crowder would stay healthy. I see those as holes, and think they could productively have added a G or a WR to compete vs. reaching on a LB. I can’t disagree with your assessment that he looked like a reach at the time and needs to be shown to be different.

Way too many ‘ifs’ there. Agree with your first assessment, “clickbait from Florio”