Generic_Bills_Fan
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Posts posted by Generic_Bills_Fan
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They might say 0% but I feel like if we lose to NE and finish with a losing record it could still happen lol
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3 hours ago, uticaclub said:
Rodgers isn’t coming back & while I know anything can happen on any given week. If you look at the projected favorites of all the upcoming, even with the bills at 11-6; we would miss out.
The odds of the projected favorite winning every game are astronomically small. That is not a realistic way to predict anything. Especially if they are a small favorite. If you’re a 60/40 favorite in back to back games the odds of winning both of those games is 36%. Not to mention you’re looking at the favorites now when the favorites need to be re evaluated before each game. For example browns may be the favorite over all those teams you mentioned now but if they go out and get destroyed next game that may not be the case
I mean they activated his 21 day practice window. And even if Rodgers doesn’t come back the browns and jets are both good defenses with terrible qbs. It’s a pretty safe bet browns lose at least one of bears jets and bengals
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Just now, uticaclub said:
Cleveland still has the Bears, Jets & Bengals. We would both be 11-5 & they beat us on tiebreakers
I don’t know why those are guaranteed wins for them is the point I was making…pj walker and DTR are as bad or worse than browning they could be playing the jets with Aaron Rodgers by week 17 also.
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22 minutes ago, uticaclub said:
Maybe I read the stat wrong but when you look at the schedules on the teams ahead of us, we are a distant long shot. If you pick manually games on any playoff machine NYT or ESPN, its hard for us to get in at 11-5; we have to hope for A LOT of upsets
Oooh the wording sounded like you were saying if we go 5-0 we’re a 13% chance which is not true…its an uphill battle overall but a 5-0 finish we are nearly guaranteed to get in
The dvoa methodology actually gives us more of a chance than other predictions so I was confused at what you were sayin lol
I think the one benefit we have is the vast majority of these fellow wildcard competitors have somewhere between bad and terrible qbs right now.. like I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if a team like Cleveland finished 1-5.
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2 hours ago, uticaclub said:
We have a 13.5% chance according to DVOA, if we go 5-0. I know that's not the be all, end all, but are chances are slim and none and Slim’s packing his bags.
Are you sure that’s not 13.5% chance TO go 5-0 lol 5-0 finish and we are 99% in by any playoff simulator I’ve seen
our odds to get in at 4-1 are considerably better than that 13.5 number
it looks like DVOA is giving us a 13.5% chance to get in right now with no assumptions about future wins. We are the 4th rated team in the afc by their DAVE metric and we walloped the 3rd rated team so I don’t think you’re interpreting the numbers correctly -
8 minutes ago, 90sBills said:
He led turnovers in 2022. He was leading this season as well until MNF when Dobbs threw 4 ints to overtake him. I have faith in our boy to get back the lead before season’s end. He seems very committed to throwing it to the other team.He led by a whopping 1 last year and if josh dobbs ceased to exist he’d be leading by a whopping 1 this year with an extra game played on a lot of guys that are 2 behind 😂. That’s far from a guarantee he’ll lead it again the end of this year. Y’all make it sound like he’s got 10 more than anyone else but really he’s right in line with a bunch of guys that get far less touches
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8 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:
Except... the play you were talking about was NOT in a goal-to-go situation. It netted the Eagles 5 yards, and a first down conversion en route to an eventual TD. In that situation it was a bone-headed move by Phillips. He is responsible for entirely too many of these types of bone-headed moves this season.
Criticism of Phillips on this specific play relies on the refs being completely blind to an obvious false start because the league must love the tush push/brotherly shove branding lol. Phillips went when Kelce started his bs illegal antics before snapping the ball
seems like the key to being successful in the nfl is coming up with a cool name for things…’sauce’ Gardner can hold virtually whenever he wants because he’s got a recognizable nickname too 😂
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I can’t even tell you how much kelces complaining bothered me haha the only way to stop that play is to jump the snap so that’s what absolutely every team should be doing. He obviously mistimed it a bit but I doubt he was intentionally trying to injure anybody
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17 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:
Just last year Dak threw more INT's then Allen playing in 5 less games.
What I find ridiculous is these trolling cretins make you have to defend A BUFFALO BILLS QB who is one of the top 2 QB's in the NFL on a Buffalo Bills message board. What the FREAKING hell is that?
Player comparisons across teams are ridiculous enough in general…Josh is carrying more of the offensive load than any other player on any team and it’s not like his receivers are getting large amounts of separation consistently. Comparing his numbers on a stat sheet to mahomes just doesn’t even feel super relevant to me
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22 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:
He leads the league in turnovers every year. That’s not a coincidence. It’s facts
He doesnt even lead the league in turnovers the current year when you posted this 😂 some ‘facts’ you’ve got lol
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7 hours ago, racketmaster said:
This Josh is a turnover machine narrative seems to familiar to the Josh is not accurate debate. Allen has never been a qb that pads or seems overly concerned with stats. If the situation allows for him to throw a Hail Mary at end of half, he does. If he feels the need to force a deep pass on a 3rd and 15, he does. I watch a lot of other qbs “protect” their stats by taking dump offs on 3rd and long and not risking the turnover. But with Allen, he regularly converts on third and longs by taking some risk. The turnover narrative seems blown out of proportion, especially when looking at the numbers the op displayed above.
I’m getting pretty tired of the narrative and I might take a rainy day to go through actual impactful ints for each qb. Per attempt I guarantee tua and hurts are much higher and some other guys you wouldn’t even expect are probably higher also
feels like a bunch of Josh’s this year have been on arm punts/a Hail Mary
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3 hours ago, RG Murdock said:
The Bills are 6-6 on merit. They have no chance of winning out... None... They end up 8-9, and we'll be watching dreck like the Colts, Steelers and Browns with 2nd string, or worse QB's in the playoff's, while we had a healthy Josh and offense and blew another year. Even when Milano comes back, he'll miss at least 5 games anyway.. He always does. 2021 was our shot... And blew it.
The 6-6 feels a bit fluky to me personally. Bass missin relatively easy fgs in most close games and teams pulling off some of the most improbable plays of the year against us…the Sutton td and eagles fg/the prayer td to zaccheaus were just ridiculous.
I don’t think we’ll win out but I think we’re a pretty good but not great team that’s had some rough luck
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11 hours ago, zow2 said:
It might be obvious to general fans, but this is the first hint at this coaching change from inside their headquarters. For Bills fans, this could affect how LA plays Buffalo on Christmas, we shall see. It also will affect available coaching candidates if the Bills make a change themselves.
The last couple weeks I heard Belichek possibly to Washington and just today heard the Carolina owner will be pursuing BB very hard.
I’m so curious if belichick will give up gm responsibilities…I pity the team that hands him control of everything
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17 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:
He's cowardly for kneeling the ball and depending on a 50/50 coin flip instead of his generational quarterback, an OLine playing great, the best WR this franchise has ever had.
I’m all for firing a guy not getting results and will def not defend all mcdermotts actions but I really think you can justify either decision that specific time
20 seconds to drive down the field in a bad weather game where your receivers already dropped 6-7 passes to get in fringe field goal range for a struggling kicker feels like it’s just as likely to lose you the game as win you the game
On 11/28/2023 at 8:24 PM, Nextmanup said:I think a lot of fans agree with this, but I think it's actually possible, this year.
Not highly likely, but possible. How the season ends will play a role.
I think if we go 9-8 or 10-7 and just miss the playoffs he probably stays. Losing record though and he’s done imo
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6 minutes ago, par73 said:
According to Marino's All-22 analysis, that pass to Davis in the end zone should have been to the outside (if so, biggest error of the game was on Allen). I don't know if that is correct, but if so, two biggest mistakes of the game were on JA.
I don’t really get why you would bring the sideline into play when you beat single coverage quick so I’m not sure I agree…just my two cents though could be meaningless 😂
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2 hours ago, Dukestreetking said:
I'll bite, and get flamed...
Philly: 1:52, down 3, but with 2TOs, and (very?) good QB/O. That's a layup in modern NFL.
Result: no TD, no gimme FG. Instead, they have to rely on a 20%, 59-yd attempt in awful weather conditions.
Yes, I would've loved for the D to force a TO on downs or otherwise. But, regardless of circumstances, and on this particular high-leverage series, I would consider this a "stop" or damn near it.
Put it this way: at 1:52, if you would've told me I could have that non-ST result (again, irrespective of play sequence), I'd say "ok, I'll take that chance".
Btw: I'm not/not talking about the more general--and obvious--problem of late-game D failures.
I think over time a lot more people will agree with this…even if next gen stats got it perfectly accurate that’s a pretty unbelievable result that they ended up with a 20% chance to make the fg
yes there were penalties but they had a down to get some of that yardage back and gained 0 yards
the defense in ot was an unmitigated disaster though for sure
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1 minute ago, Bob Jones said:
As I stated earlier in this thread, NextGen Stats gave that specific 59 yard kick a 20% success rate, so 1 in 5. 😉
Does that factor in weather? That sounds much too high. And even so that is still a very unlikely play lol the only way to know for sure is to replay that moment a bunch of times haha
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34 minutes ago, finn said:
McDermott seems to be thinking, "Ok, we'll let them get into field goal range because, hey, they may miss!"
I really can't remember the last time the defense had to hold and did. (I'm certainly not including the shameful Giants game.) Maybe the playoff game against the Ravens when Taron had the pick?
McDermott plays not to lose. He simply has to go. But by the time it's blindingly obvious--likely after next season--we'll have lost yet another year of Allen's prime.
In fairness, that was like a 1/25 type fg make and even that feels generous.
The defense held on to win a lot last year, this disappointing season seems to have given people fuzzy memories. Even in losses they pulled off some impressive holds like the Minnesota game where they had a pretty amazing goal line stand then the offense fumbled it away
it’s kind of funny you mention the ravens game from two years ago because our defense saved the game with a late INT against that very same team the next season and you don’t remember it 😂
in total they stopped the opponent with a chance to win on a final drive in all these games:
kc
bal
Min
Mia x3 (defense had good field position game 1)
partial credit for NYJ game 1 (long drive but held to a fg so we could tie with a fg. Plenty of time for the offense to at least tie who took over and did nothing)partial credit for NYJ game 2 (we were up 8 so the best they could do was tie)
Partial credit for lions….(held to a fg to keep the game tied then the offense won it with 30 seconds left)
so depending on how you look at it the defense held somewhere between 6-9 games. The rest of the games were pretty much blowout wins. Defense at least debatably held up in 100% of their opportunities on late drives
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Just now, HappyDays said:
McDermott's excuse for kneeling it down after this one was the rain... I mean how clueless can you be? At what point in this game did the rain slow our offense down?
Also not enough discussion has been devoted to him kicking the XP after our go ahead TD (instead of going for 2 to make it a 4 point game) and not going for it on 4th and 6 in OT. Our defense hadn't been stopping the Eagles offense at all. I usually lean conservative, but this is the exact type of game scenario where you have to let your offense win the game for you. Three separate occasions in the final minutes where he inexplicably trusted our defense over our offense - kick the XP instead of going for 2, kneel down with 20 seconds left, kick a FG instead of going for it on 4th and 6.
And we will have to win multiple consecutive games like this to ever win in the playoffs and win a Super Bowl! What has McDermott ever shown to make us think he can ever lead the team to do that?
I don’t think a single coach in the league is going for it on 4th and 6 in ot there. Maybe some go for 2 on the td though idk.
i try to look at it as ‘how bad do you flame them if the decision doesn’t work out’ and going for that 4th and 6 would’ve been horrendous if it didn’t work. Nobody would be patting the coaches on the back saying ‘at least your offense lost the game’ lol it would be an all time coaching gaffe
4th and short id totally agree with you but 4th and 6 in any weather is pretty tough and factoring in the bills dropped like 8 passes in the game makes it even more unlikely
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8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Imo if you're going to burn a timeout on defense it better be to dial up something that produces a chance for a turnover or negative yardage. Otherwise save them for offense
I could def see it going either way on the defensive timeouts…holding your opponent to -5 yards there was huge is all I was trying to say. I can’t recall ever seeing an incomplete pass in that situation that was honestly kind of shocking
the icing the kicker timeout was 100%
unnecessary and gave us 0 value
im curious if bass’ struggles factored in…like do you risk a turnover to kick a long fg in bad weather that he’s likely gonna miss anyway? Idk
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13 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:
Ugh, the defense is giving up less than 20 pts per game, including last night’s game, ranked 6th in the league. Yardage wise they’re 10th. In what’s now a passing league, they’re 7th in the NFL, giving up just over 200 yards passing/game.A lot of that is skewed by opponents imo and being dominant when Milano/jones were healthy. Jets x2, bucs,broncos,giants, patriots, raiders were more than half our games and those offenses are trainwrecks.
Advanced metrics that adjust for opponents like dvoa are much less favorable towards the bills. We were dead last in defensive dvoa for a pretty decent stretch after the Milano/jones injuries
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10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
I believe there was a team a couple years ago that quickly drove down for a FG in a tightly contested AFC divisional game. I believe they had somewhere between 12 and 14 seconds left. If only McDermott had seen this game maybe he would have known better!
I’m not a fan of the icing the kicker timeout but the defensive timeouts were followed up by a false start and a huge no gain play keeping them in miracle fg range. If they pick up 4-5 yards there they make the field goal considerably easier. We are all over the defensive timeouts when the result that follows is bad but nobody talks about them when there’s a good result.
Of course the miracle worked out though because why wouldn’t it 😂. The odds of us winning on a missed fg if we held them to no gain on that third down were much much higher than us going down the field in 20 seconds with 3 timeouts imo. That fg was like a 1/100 type play
still absolutely hate the icing the kicker timeout though so I think some of the criticism is completely justified
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33 minutes ago, warrior9 said:
Except for the fact that Herbert has done nothing to be anointed “elite.” He’s a media darling because he’s tall and throws the ball far. He has won nothing and doesn’t have the wins/ stats of an elite QB. Traits? Sure. So do a lot of QBs. Josh has been in the MVP running, he’s been to the AFCCG. He’s won 3 division titles in a row. Herbert can’t sniff that and I can’t believe people still think this guy is elite.
That’s kind of a self fulfilling prophecy though lol. Nobody would say Josh is elite either if he had the exact stats he’s had the last few years and the team hovered around .500. It’d be the same ‘he’s got good stats but he’s not a winner/they lose because he turns the ball over’ argument..
Herbert’s got 114tds, 41 ints, about 17k yards passing in his 4 year career.
That’s an average season of 29 passing tds, 10ints, 4250 yards.
Josh is 162tds(passing)/73 ints/21611 in 6 years.
Averages of 27 passing tds/12 ints/3601 passing yards
the bills defense has just been way better than the chargers in the regular season the last few years but this year we are full chargering it up by folding on defense with a chance to win every single time -
This is a weird take…that’s a pretty high percentage field goal and a comfortable lead if you make it…if you go for it there and get it, you’re still not guaranteed 7 points and might just end up settling for a fg anyway
punting there only nets you a few yards of field position
2024/2025 season
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Not that we should talk 😂 but I think tomlin is wading into overrated territory. We’ve been saying he’s doing a good job with no talent for years now but they’ve actually got talent now and they sure make it look like they don’t lol