Chaos
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Posts posted by Chaos
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Derrick Henry.
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1 minute ago, May Day 10 said:
I say yes, to a point.
They had a lot of games against weak or compromised opponents. True.
They won almost all those games though. That is not easy to do, no matter who the opponents are. The Jets, Miami, Denver, Washington, Giants, etc all proved to be pretty dangerous at times. Pittsburgh was on a roll and on the road for a Sunday night game. Dallas on Thanksgiving wasnt a garbage win. Tennessee on the road, good win.
They also were in every game until the very end, with the exception of the Philly game that got away.
When push came to shove though, when they played the upper class in NE, Baltimore, Houston in the playoffs, they couldnt get it done. I would argue that this was not the season the Bills were 'supposed to' be a contender in the top class of the NFL. This was supposed to be a nice step forward into next year when the real window to compete is opened up.
On a neutral field, are there any non-playoff teams who would be favored over the Bills? I dont think so. That's something.
AFC East played the NFC East this year. Neither conference has a team in the final eight teams. The results for all the teams in those two conferences are skewed by having so many games against bad teams. Bills and Pats were the best of these teams. Which is something. Kind of like winning the cotton bowl, while the top teams are playing the FBS playoff games. Its better than nothing, but still on the outside looking in.
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6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
The Bills are not "Paper Tigers" because in the playoffs, they were exactly what they had shown themselves to be during the season: a "shut down" D that can limit or stay with anyone, including the NFL MVP with a blazing hot offense (Ravens) and the #6 offense in the league for points (Cowboys).
Sadly, the bold part was not true yesterday when it mattered. 19 points given up in 20 minutes (including drives of 75 and 69 yards) is the definition of "not a shut down D"
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On 1/5/2020 at 1:04 AM, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:
Wins
S. Darnold (Established/Entrenched Starter) First Year Head Coach
E. Manning (Benched/Back-Up) Coach Fired
Andy Dalton (Benched/Back-Up) First Year Head Coach
M.Mariota (Benched/Back-Up) Good Coach
R. Fitz (Back Up) First Year Head Coach
D. Haskins (Rookie/Back-Up) Coach Fired
R. Fitz (Back-Up) First Year Head Coach
B. Allen (Back-Up) First Year Head Coach
D. Prescott (Established/Entrenched Starter) Coach Fired
D. Hodges (Back-Up) Good coach
Loses
T. Brady (Established/Entrenched Starter) Good Coach
C. Wentz (Established/Entrenched Starter) Good Coach
B. Mayfield (Established/Entrenched Starter) First Year HC/Coach Fired
L. Jackson (Established/Entrenched Starter) Good CoachT. Brady (Established/Entrenched Starter) Good Coach
D. Watson (Established/Entrenched Starter) Good CoachViewing the results against coaches shows that the Bills played 9 Games against teams with either first year HC's or coaches bad enough to be fired. The Bills went 8-1 against these coaches. In the seven games against good coaches, the Bills went 2-5. One of those wins was the Steelers, who started their third string QB.
Next Season, the Bills face this coaching lineup.
Chiefs - Reid - Good CoachChargers - Lynn - meh coach
Rams - McVay - Good coach
Seahawks - Carroll 0 Good coach
Steelers - Tomlin - Good Coach
Dolphins - Flores - second year coach, appears to be a good coach
Patriots - Good coach
Jets - bad coach
Cardinals - meh coach
Broncos - meh coach
Raiders - Good coach ( i know many disagree on this)
Niners - Good coach
Titans - Good coach
Dolphins - second year coach, appears to be a Good coach
Patriots Good coach
Jets - Bad coach
It does not seem likely the Bills will face any coaches who are first year coaches next year. Nor is it likely they will be facing any coaches who will be fired at the end of the year (possible Gase or Lynn)
To go 11-5 next year (likely needed to win the division). They will have to win their games against all the less than good coaches, which is only 5 wins, and win 6 games against the other teams. That is a big step up from the 1 quality win against a good coach with a real starting QB this year.
If the Bills do this I offer McDermott a five year extension. If they perform against good coaches next year as they did this year, the team is looking at something like a 6-10 or 7-9 record. If that happens, not sure where I would stand with this coaching staff.-
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1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:
Well, first, they've really completed only two full years of rebuild. Year one was mostly tear down, and Beane has had only two drafts. But your question is a good one.
Next, I think you have to understand the process. This collection of players learned a lot of things this season about how to play together. The process requires that they carry those things forward into next season, and that they build on that knowledge. The process requires that knowledge builds and builds from season to season. The defensive will evolve, but the base defense will be the same. The offense will evolve, but the base offense will be the same. That's what the Patriots have done, and that's what makes them able to keep adjust their game - over two decades they've dealt with every kind of opponent, and they've grown year after year. So, a second part of the Bills' improvement is going to come from overall team growth.
Players will improve. It's a really young roster, and players improve in this league. They are not finished products after their first or second season in the league. A guy like Cody Ford, for example, almost certainly will be better in his second season than his first.
Then, you have the fact that the Bills have a lot of cap room and ten draft picks. They're going to have to begin to make some hard choices, because they'll need money for Allen and Edmunds and others, but still, they have cap money. I don't expect the Bills to attack free agency the say way in 2020 as in 2019. Last year they wanted to retool the offensive line, so they signed 9 or 10 offensive linemen and figured they'd find enough serviceable guys to improve the line. It worked. But this off-season will be different. I expect that the Bills will acquire a free agent starting offensive lineman, and I wouldn't be surprised if they also draft an offensive lineman who starts as a rookie. That is, I expect one or two new offensive line starters next season. There will be one new starting wide out. There will be a couple of new linebackers who get significant playing time. There'll be some change on the Dline.
Why all these changes? Because the process demands competition. The process demands that guys come in and fight for their jobs.
One final thing: Three years ago, you wouldn't have had the Titans, Ravens or Texans on your list of teams at the top of the AFC, the teams to beat. Three years from now, the chances are half or more of your five teams won't still be there. Things change.
It's a process.
It's not a star system. It's a team system. So I don't think position by position comparisons are meaningful, and I don't agree about coaches. I don't think there's any way to know how good McDermott will be - he's still learning. I don't think Harbaugh is better now, let alone ten years from now. You don't even mention O'Brien. Reid, I love, but I'm guessing he's retiring one of these days.
In other words, I think the Bills have in place a process that can take them to the very top of the game. That doesn't mean they WILL do that, but there's nothing in the way.
Do you have a specific reasons why the Bills will pass the Ravens , Chiefs, Titans, Patriots and Texans? As best I can tell those teams have good coaches with their own processes that have proven pretty successful. Regarding rebuild. McDermott has three full seasons under his belt. This regime chose to pass on Watson and Mahomes. That does not mean we through out the first season.50 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:Who is the BEST team in the NFL? Where are the trends going in the NFL.
build you team to stay ahead of those trends (have done a great job on defense doing it with team speed and middle pressure
have failed on offense doing it to this point.
Great job on defense seems to be a stretch. Against teams with winning records, the defense did not produce at a level one would call great. Maybe "good", but that is a lot different than great.
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1 minute ago, jkeerie said:
This is a good post. I give the Bills an extra year because they didn't have their QB year one. Every team should get better next year. You watch many of the premier teams this year, certain sides of the ball didn't become elite until they drafted that critical piece or made a coaching move (e.g SF defense needed Bosa, Ravens needed Greg Roman). What the Bills do in this off season will be critical. As fans we see obvious needs...another edge rusher, a big, sure-handed WR, RT, a RB to complement Singletary. What do you see as that most critical piece?
I think the Daboll / Allen combination is not working out. One part of that equation needs to be changed. So I ask myself this question, which fake headline would be the most disturbing:
"Daboll Fired, Named by Pats to Replace McDaniels" or
"Allen cut, signed by Pats as heir to Brady".
I am pretty sure the second headline troubles me more. So the move that is a potential game changer is changing the OC. All the other moves are incremental, and probably don't move the dial enough. In terms of incremental moves, I would look to sign Derrick Henry in free agency, and I would draft the best Oline or WR available with our first round pick. -
2 minutes ago, jkeerie said:
I understand your point, but the Bills weren't blown out by anyone. They were not overmatched by anyone. They can play with any team now. If they get better, which I believe they will, who knows?
What you describe sounds eight and eightish
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16 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:
What results, specifically, are predictive of less wins next year?
Our poor record against teams with winning records this year. And a schedule next year that includes far more teams with winning records.
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Just now, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:
I think the attempted lateral warrants Mcd's comment about doing too much.
A play that had zero impact on the outcome of the game.
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Dick Jauron was not wrong when he said it was hard to win in the NFL.
The bills finished 6th of 16 AFC teams this year (give the tiebreak to the Pats, since they beat the Bills twice). Advancing to the Super Bowl requires getting past those five teams (plus holding off other teams). The Bills have completed three full years of a rebuild. The have draft picks and cap space, and appear to have a stable coaching staff. Lets take a quick review of the five teams ahead of us.
5. Patriots. As long as Belichick is there, the Pats will have a coaching edge. Pats may lose Brady (or Brady has declined to irrelevance) and Josh McDaniel . Pats defense is on par with the Bills. Their non-QB offensive play-makers are on par or slightly better than the Bills. All in all, it does seem possible, but not a given that the Bills move past the Patriots
4. Titans. Titans seem fluky. Vrabel seems to be the real deal as a coach. If they retain Henry, their play-makers on offense definitely are better than the Bills. Hard to tell if Tannehill is born again, or having a fluke season. If Tannehill is born again, the Titans are ascending. Will not be easy to catch. If Tanehill is a fluke we should get by them.
3. Texans. Texans just beat us. Their is no reason to expect them to decline. They will be tough to pass.
2. Chiefs. Chiefs have a better head coach and a better QB. They have better play-makers, and are a pretty young group. They will be tough to be pass
1. Ravens. Ravens have a better head coach, a better QB, and a better O line. They are also a pretty young group with no imminent salary cap issues.
Other teams. Chargers seem on the decline. Colts have a stable coaching situation, but no QB. Jacksonville seems to be pretty bad overall. Jets seem awful. Raiders have stable coaching and some pretty good pieces. Held back by mediocre QB play. Broncos seem to be spinning their wheels. Bengals are lost. Steelers are without a QB, unless Ben surprise me. Browns will have a better coach most likely . I think Mayfield sucks personally, but if others are right about him, the Browns could turn things around. Flores has impressed me with the Dolphins, but without a QB, they should remain mostly not a threat.
The 2020 Bills won't be playing the 2019 Bills. My question is NOT what will the Bills do to improve vs themselves. My question for the TBD world, is what do the Bills have to do to beat the Pats, Titans, Texans, Chiefs and Ravens, and hold off the others? -
1 minute ago, Penfield45 said:
McDermott is a great Defensive coach
but that's about it. he has no idea how to develop a top offense, his in game management is awful, his challenges are poor, and he constantly is making boneheaded personeal decisions, like Duke Williams not allowed to play while Lee smith and Demarco are running routes 40 yards downfield.
His players seem to play hard for him. That is pretty important.
But he really lacks accountability for his own errors. He was very public about telling his players, especially Allen, to play fearlessly. Then after the refs stole the game, and he made multiple coaching errors during the game, blamed the loss on Allen "trying to do to much". I thought that was a real ***** move.-
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Really different levels of expectation in patriot land. 11-5 season, playoff loss and the season is viewed as a dismal failure to move on from. Amazing.
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7 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:
Chaos, I appreciate the post, but small constructive feedback, make sure when you put a chart up, get it on you’re laptop, enlarge it, so we can read it. It’s a complete blur. I’m sure I can surmise what it says, but would love to see it. With that said, I really do appreciate the post sincerely.
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1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:
You mean if he went to the ref and asked for the ball back and then ran for a TD?
If you can point out one another example in NFL history were "receivers intent" was part of the a rules interpretation than you have a point. If you cannot do that, than just admit you are flat out 100% wrong.
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4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
I'm not contrarian when I'm pointing out why the call was reversed. It was explained as such. Many disagree, but regarding the returners "intent"---it was crystal clear. That's why they reversed it. Pretty simple
If "receivers intent" was part of the rule, you would have a point. but its not, so your point is irrelevant to whether the call was correct or not.
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If the runner had changed his mind and decided to run it out, and had returned it for a TD, does anyone think the TD would have been called back?
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1 minute ago, Peter said:
I cannot think of another instance where a penalty for a blind side block was called where an offensive lineman did what Cody Ford did.
I would love for someone to link a video of another instance where such a penalty was called where the lineman did what Cody did. My guess is that even the most die hard Texan fan would have a hard time coming up with such a video.
As an aside, it is shameful that some of our "fans" would react to Cody the way they did. We have some great fans . . . but others . . . not so much.
Cody also said that he was coached to do what he did. I don't think he did anything wrong, but, if he is coached to do what he did, if there really is an issue with what he did, the blame (if there is any) lies elsewhere.
Nevertheless, in my view, it was one of the worst calls to go against a Buffalo team and certainly negatively impacted on the Bills chances of winning the game.
It is odd that each of the following critical calls went against the Bills: phantom blind side penalty, failure to call delay of game, and the after the fact re-writing of the NFL rule book to divine what the poor Texans' kick returner must have been thinking after the refs on the field called a TD. How is it that the back up refs on the sidelines can reverse a call that the refs on the field (and the ref closest to the play) made?!?!?
The game was stolen.
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13 minutes ago, Billl said:
Are you joking?
Jackson has 9 fumbles on the year. Allen had 16.Jackson has 8 turnovers. Allen had 14.
Fumbles lost
Call NFL.com with your corrections
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McDermott could have done better. However, this game was stolen. There were three separate calls by the refs, any one of which likely results in a Bills win
1. The stolen "common sense" td2. phantom blindside block
3. missed delay of game on 3 and 18.
These are not the normal "refs make mistakes". Each of these were horrible outcome alternating calls. No similar calls went the other way.
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1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:
Do you mean Jackson?
thank you. i will fix
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Just now, Shaw66 said:
People make comments like this all the time. The comment demonstrates that you aren't listening to what McBeane have been saying since they got to Buffalo.
The process is designed to build a team that has sustained long-term success. That means that they're looking for the kind of success that New Orleans and New England and Kansas City have - that is, success where the team keeps winning even thought the players keep changing. That's what they mean when they talk about building the right way.
So, for example, the Bills went for quantity instead of quality in free agency in 2019. Other than Morse, they didn't sign a premier free agent on the offensive line. They signed a lot of journeymen, expecting to get exactly what they got - decent improvement on the offensive line. They'll decide that one of two of those guys are keepers, and they'll get some new talent next year. In other words, they didn't bet the farm with the expectation that they could become a Super Bowl contender in 2019.
It's not an accident that the "Championship Caliber" sign went up late this season. McDermott sets goals with the expectation that once a goal is achieved, they won't go backward. The goal for 2019 was to become Playoff Caliber, and when that goal was achieved, the goal was changed. That sign will stay up now. Every player on this team now knows that that goal is achievable.
There is nothing that anyone ever has said that this is the seven year slog that you make up to be contrarian.
This is one of the youngest teams in the league, with a lot of cap room and ten draft picks and a process in place designed to generate continuous improvement. 6-10 to 10-6, including conceding a loss in the final game, together with going overtime in a Wildcard game, is substantial improvement. Just because you're unhappy that your team didn't do better doesn't mean that the Bills are seriously on the move.
Just because you imagine they are on the move, does not make it so either. The Bills had very average results this year. Their performance against thier particular opponents was just about league average against those opponents. Next years schedule shifts from the horrible NFC east to the pretty good NFC west. Very good chance the team wins fewer games next year, based on this years results.
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Who fumbled more this year Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen ? Jackson
Who took more sacks this year D. Watson or Josh Allen? WatsonWho had more turnovers this year Watson or Allen? Watson
Who has more playmakers on his team, Watson or Allen? Watson
Who has a better oline Jackson or Allen? JacksonThese three QBs are not asked to play like brees or brady. Allens perceived issues are because people don't understand what he is being asked to do. And how little help he has compared to other QBs asked to do the similar things.
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Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said:
I think the debate is with the "initiate forcible contact with his head shoulder or forearm" part not the "toward or parallel to his own end line" part. looked like a weak push leading with his hands to me which is legal. It is extremely debatable that the call was correct even by the letter of the rule...and given the situation and the way the game was going you absolutely cannot call that.
common sense should have prevailed.
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3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
Really? They weren't.
And more importantly, whatever the stats, Watson was the better QB on the field.
Watson had a passer rating of 121. Allen 69.5. Allen did have 46 attempts and Watson only 25. Combined with rushing, the entire offense was far more on Allen, than Houston's was on Watson. Terrible terrible terrible playing calling in the OT was the frosting on the cake.
We are not allowed to win a big game till we relocate or we build a dome on the water.......
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Why do you have to?