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Chaos

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Posts posted by Chaos

  1. 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

     

    I think McDermott's diagnosis of this is "feeling as though he has to do it all".    (I think that because he said words to that effect several times)  Allen is looking to make a play no matter what, and that is overriding everything else. 

     

    I'm sure Allen's being given proper advice on how to handle the situations, but I'm not sure he's being given proper mental drills for it.  In critical game situations where he can't lose yardage, Allen needs to run an "emergency drill" through his head before every snap.  3 seconds of "If they're coming for me: hot read (on this play); throw away" to himself, - then continue with everything else related to the play.    This is analogous to the effective "implementation intention" statements studied by psychologist Peter Gollwitzer or the engine failure on takeoff checks a well-trained pilot clicks through mentally for 3-4 seconds before going through the normal pre-takeoff checks, ATC instructions or uncontrolled airport pattern etc.  It primes your mind in some not-quite-understood way so that when stuff happens, you don't think consciously, you just react properly.   He can probably do this on every snap in training camp and preseason.

     

     

    response to bolded. 

    Being told what to do is easy.  Teaching how to do it is something else.  Its semantics, but proper advice to me, would include the drills you mention. 

  2. Seems like a good question.  Most HC's played at some level. And typically moved to coaching on the same side of the ball as they played.  Most head coaches have experience as a DC or OC prior to being a HC.  Its seems rare for someone to move from DC to OC or vice versa, so I think almost all head coaches are presumed to be more expert on side of the ball than the other.  

    • Like (+1) 1
  3. 22 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

     

    This is the question isnt it?  I'll even go further to say that probably its going to be on Josh to take them to this level because ultimately the games are won on the field...  He has got to win 12 games and a playoff game to get them into the Championship game, and many are not going to believe he can do it until he actually does it...

     

    Ravens and Chiefs havent won anything yet.. whilst its likely one of them goes through to the SB, I wouldnt quite proclaim it as a given looking at the Titans play last week... Both QB's are young so will be interesting to see how they handle the pressure of the games this weekend that they are expected to win..

     

     

    There may not be any "obvious moves" that propel the Bllls to the top next season, but Ive got  lot of confidence that the Bills will be a better team in 2020 with the younger guys including the QB having another year of experience under their belt.. plus the expectations that the Bills spend some money and acquire another couple of pieces in FA and the Draft... Whilst they are competing against other teams as you said, they can only control what they do themselves...

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Bolded parts are same things Chiefs and Ravens will be doing . Its more likely a big move needs to be an new offensive coordinator.   The gap from Reid to Daboll or Harbaugh/Roman to Daboll seems like a chasm.  

  4. On 1/5/2020 at 7:58 PM, Putin said:

    The only logical place imo is the chargers 

    If it is just money, there are lots of logical places. If it includes location and playoff viability I think you are correct. 

    I think Las Vegas is an interesting opportunity.  Brady was not good this year. It seems plausible he was hurt, and that he could be better than Carr next year.  

    Any think the Bears are an opportunity.  Don't know their cap room, maybe nothing after the Mack signing.  But the room for improvement over Trubisky is huge. 

  5. There is a strategic part of this question and a tactical part. 

    First the strategic part. There is more than one approach to coaching a young QB.  The Raven's built an unconventional offense around their unconventional QB, and it has worked out very well so far. 

    The Bills seem  committed to developing Allen into a conventional QB.   This has not worked as well as with the Ravens, but it is working out so far as well.  The reality is that the Bills have among the weakest WR's, RB groups, TE's and offensive lines among all the playoff teams.  Even so, Allen led the rag tag group to the second highest total points in regulation among all the wild card weekend teams.  This was without the benefit of particularly good starting position too. 

    Allen has unconventional talents. There is an argument that an approach more similar to the Ravens might make sense.  But it is certainly less than 100% certain. 

    Tactical Coaching is something else.  I think we can assume that no coaches Allen to drop back 15 yards behind the LOS when pressured.  But since I am not in the rooms, I don't know if Allen is being given proper advice on how to handle these situations, or simply can't execute.  

    I do know this though.  Allen's college experience is much less.  Hear are his passing attempts in College vs the other young guns. 

    Allen 649
    Jackson 1086
    Mahomes 1349
    Darnold 846

    Mayfield 1497

    Add to the discrepency that the Defense's Allen faced were the furthers from the NFL of the group.

    Not making excuses for Allen, but part of learning is game reps.  And that includes college game reps. It is reasonable to believe Allen has more room for improvement than the others simply because  he has less experience. 
     

  6. 36 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

     

    Ummmm since this was the most obvious I'll just talk to the one 

     

    The Ravens are the #1 seed.    They either go "sideways" or decline.  

    The Steelers - with or w/o Big Ben - sideways or decline

    The Browns - stagnant / sideways with a small chance to ascend.

    The Bengals stagnant / sideways / ascend - they have no where to go buy up, but how far will they?

    Ascending in this case simply means to improve. Unless the Ravens go 19-0 , they have room for improvement. This is obvious. 

    4 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

    I know one thing - it's going to be Bills vs. Dolphins for the division for the next 5-6 years, imo.  Much like the early 90s.  Dolphins are probably one year behind us in their timetable, but they will be good under Flores.

    If the Dolphins do not find a good answer at QB, they will struggle. This is not a unique problem. 

  7. 2 hours ago, ArtVandalay said:

    Is he? He's never had an offense post back to back years in the Top 15 in yards.

     

    His offenses have finished as Top 25 in passing yards only once in 2012 with SF.

     

    His offenses have helped post a lot of wins a few times. I realize some prefer yards. 

  8. Bills finished 6th in the AFC this year.  Five teams did better, 10 worse.  Bills have a QB who should get better, and it generally feels like the team should get better next year.  But the 2020 Bills won't be competing against the 2019 Bills, they will be competing against the other AFC teams.   Which ones do you think are going to improve next year, and which ones decline.

    AFC East
    Pats - maybe the hardest one to gauge. But seems to be in decline for now. 
    Bills - Ascending - QB should improve. In game coaching has a lot or room for improvement. 

    Jets - I think Gase is a wheel spinner, and that the Jets are equally likely to go up or down
    Dolphins - Dolphins really have almost no where to go but up. But they seem like a low ceiling team.

    AFC North

    Ravens, - ascending.  Same dynamics as the Bills but starting from higher ground. 
    Steelers - ascending.  I hate the Steelers.  But their defense is solid, coaching is solid, and their QB situation almost certainly has to improve.  If rudolph and duck are they only choices at QB, then this arrow turns sideways
    Browns - ascending - hate Mayfield, I think he sucks.  almost anyone they hire for HC has to be better than the clown they let go. arrow may be up, but ceiling is still low.
    Bengals - ascending - no where to go buy up. Also low ceiling

     

    AFC South

    Colts - Sideways to down.  Love their head coach. But they look to be in QB hell to me with Brissett. I think they are close to looking at a full rebuild. 

    Texans - Sideways to down.  They gave up a lot of draft capital to get where they are.  Despite his stunning return, Watts is on the decline.  playmakers have all peaked.  They needed the refs to cheat to win a playoff game. 
    Jaguars - Down -- Marrone means always expect to go down
    Titans - Ascending - Tricky one.  If Tannehill is born again, its an up arrow. If he simply played way over his head this year its a down arrow.

    AFC West
    Chiefs. ascending.  Same dynamics as the Bills but starting from higher ground. 
    Chargers - declining - key players have peaked or are on the declin
    Raiders - ascending.  I think low ceiling though. Carr is not likely to get better, which keeps them from moving much
    Broncos - wheel spinning until the QB issue is solved. 

    NFL always changes, so past is not necessarily prologue.  For 15 years the Pats, Colts and Steelers were the only AFC Champs, save for one appearance by the Flacco Ravens.

    The Chiefs and Ravens, seem built to be part of the championship mix for a long time.  They are already the 1 and 2 seeds.  Have proven coaches and two QBs widely accepted at the best young QBs in the game.   Mahomes and Jackson may very well recreate the Manning-Brady rivalry along with Reid and Harbaugh. 

    I am not sure if the Bills have the coaching/QBing to become the consistent third team in the mix.   If Tomlin and Belichick cannot create past magic, I think the Bills are positioned to be the next best consistently after the chiefs and ravens.   Unfortunately, I don't see any obvious moves that will allow the Bills to propel past these two teams on a consistent basis. 

    To be clear on any given Sunday most any team can win.  The Bills can beat any team on any given Sunday.  But in 2019 against teams with winning records, the Bills did not win very many Sundays.   



     

    • Like (+1) 1
  9. 3 hours ago, MJS said:

    That's quite the assumption. I'm actually well versed in statistics and data science. That's my job.

     

    My argument had absolutely nothing to do with statistics. And I'd be surprised if *you* know anything about statistics.

    Your conclusion that having more passes being due to overtime has any relation to impact the likelihood of turnovers was inane. 

  10. 8 hours ago, MJS said:

    There were a couple passes that probably should have been intercepted, but we're dropped. And he had that near fumble where luckily his knee was down.

     

    Also, given that we played extra time in overtime, 46 passes isn't really that many. Know what his pass attempts were by the end of the 4th?

    You don't really understand how statistics work do you? 

  11. 1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

    The future is very bright....how many wins would we have if.....

     

    - We had that big size/speed/hands guy to catch touchdown passes?

    - The big powerful breakaway threat back

     

    You add JUST those two things and I think we hadd an extra 3 wins

    Do any other teams get to add fill two major holes in these hypothetical games, or just the Bills? 

    • Thank you (+1) 1
  12. I like Josh Allen.  I do not think he has plateued and will improve.  Every single other position on offense has room to upgrade meaningfully.   Compare the Ravens RBs to the Bills Rbs.  Or even the Patriots.   Then move on to the Ravens oline compared to ours.   Then compare the Ravens pass catchers.    Then compare OCs.  If you swap Lamar and Josh, then the media would be losing their minds over how Josh is revolutionizing the game.   

  13. 2 minutes ago, Mango said:

     

    Honest question, would DK have prevented us from: 

    1. Calling a 50 yard seam route to our FB on 3rd down? 

    2. Throwing a 50-50 ball to your FB into double coverage on 3rd down? 

     

    I don't mean that as snarky. Until we can both stop calling and throwing those plays in crucial situations, nothing personnel takes a back seat. That is a play calling AND decision making error first. Situational awareness is at about a zero from both the QB and OC in that moment and 100 other moments like it over the course of the season. 

    Yes to one and two

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