2012spiller

1 it’s not that 87% of coaches are inferior to minority candidates but maybe 25-40% of coaches are. Freddie kitchens and pat schumur were just head coaches... On 3, i was off base saying former qbs, but there’s definitely been a push over the past few years to find offensive minded coach “the next Sean Mcvay.” There’s a lack of minority offensive positions coaches as well resulting in a bad pipeline of candidates 4- those two are apart of high powered offenses in the nfl. Rhule comes from college in a conference that plays air raid against some of the worst defenses in the county, also a college coach’s success has a lot to do with recurring than coaching which isn’t applicable to the nfl. Saban Learned the hard way. Judge was most recently NE WR coach, their WR struggled all year even with a first round WR. While the 2 minorities I listed are not drastically better than the guys I named but there’s nothing to point to, to say those guys deserve to be head coaches over minorities. if we were all purple we wouldn’t be having this convo but we’re not all purple.... even if we were we would still have a conversation as to why some of these guys are coaches over others. I would say Roman and the Viks OC deserve HC jobs over some current coaches.

We have differing opinions and I do not put all of the offensive problems on Allen. I’m not afraid to point out his flaws or that the offense is ran through the Qb so they get the most of the praise and blame. I’m not here to change your mind but I would argue YAC is play design and timing more than WR skill. For example screens and slants are designed and intended to get YAC while a curl route is not. Yes there can be bad coverage or exceptional play by a WR to get YAC on routes it’s not designed to. Tip balls normally come from a lack of pressure and penetration, not from it. Defenders normally get there hands up when they can’t get to the Qb. You’re right those items impact throwaways as well, but watching the games I feel the undesigned rollouts us to pressure versus stepping up caused a lot of throw ways. It’s early in Allen’s career but he has a lot to work on. I wish he was further ahead of where he is as a passer. Hopefully he can get his deep ball accuracy back, develop better pocket poise, and consistency with his footwork.

Looking at one year in isolation as a baseline is misguided. You have to look at all 32 coaching jobs and realize it’s not a this year issue but an accumulative issue. secondly, without going to far into it, the Kapernick settlements shows the nfl and owners are more concerned with along money not winning, as the two are not correlated. In the vein of making money the nfl will put political/racial issues over winning. Thirdly, the nfl is moving to hiring offensive minded coaches that former QBs, there’s not many minority candidates with that background due to the history around the position. Lastly, I would say Eric Bienemy and Byron Leftwitch come to mind as minority coaching candidates that I would higher over Rhule, zac Taylor, and the Pats wr coach hired for the giants, yet they didn’t get interviews. So yes it should be about looking purely at qualifications, but unfortunately it’s not and the Rooney rule is here to give qualified minorities a chance. Looking at how many coaches are fired yearly and how many teams underperform, clearly the best coaching candidates are not being hired.

The narrative your pushing compared to the stats are a bit misleading. Tipped balls have a lot to do with the quarterback and their throwing angles and release. YAC is more on the quarterback’s ball placement and the play design than the Wr. The bills YAC would go up if Allen improves his accuracy on screens. The amount of throw ways for Allen is driven by the fact he rolls out of the pocket too early instead of steppping up. Once he rolls out he’s eliminates half the field and typical left with one receiver in outlet/triple coverage. Daboll and the wrs could do a better job at having wrs run routes going from the left side of the field to the right with different depth levels... that said he’s improved but still far from a franchise qb. Last year I would say he was a 65/100 this year a 75/100. He needs to do better at stepping up in the pocket, identifying blitzes pre snap, know his hot reads and accurately hitting them. Right now he’s very boom or bust and more bust than boom.

You’re taking a very simplistic approach to analytics. In your coin flip example, yes it take a lot tosses to get to 50%, but what if you drill down and say coins flipped by a left handed person results in this %, layer on left handed person flipping a quarter vs a dime, and or the surface you’re flipping on, etc. Analytics/modeling is only as good as the variables you factor in. So yes using basic statistics isn’t helpful, but using statistics that are based on scenarios that are close or identical to your situation is very helpful.

Money talks. I would also say it depends on their play style obj would hate it here, but Landry or Keenan Allen would probably have a 100 catches on this roster. Allen can’t hit the deep ball to save his life, but he’s pretty good at hitting crossing routes and slants. Guys who are good in space and after the catch would do well. Honestly that whole draft class besides Lamar has looked bad outside a handful of games between them.

I’m not overreacting to the loss today. Law of averages was bound to catch up with the bills. When you play a lot of close games you eventually lose some. That at being said, this board severely overrates the job Beane has done. Beane inherited a roster that went to the playoffs his first year and an extra first round pick. Beane then traded or cut most of that playoff roster and traded the extra pick for Allen, edmunds and a ton of cap penalties. Brought in star and Murphy who are meh, traded a third for KB, and has a below average draft record. The only player adding value from the previous draft is Knox singeltary, and outside the first rounders from 2018 there’s no players seeing playing time outside of ST. McD has done a great job coaching up the roster he has, the problem is the lack of talent on the roster.