.png.395d368d8b720b1e31cfea1d1789947a.png)
Mikie2times
-
Posts
8,735 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Mikie2times
-
-
On 9/9/2021 at 11:27 AM, Kelly the Dog said:
Chris Berman and for awhile (outside of politics) Keith Olberman, and Dan Patrick ruined sports journalism forever, because they were genuinely funny. Since then, all guys try to be funny and they mostly all suck. Kyle Brandt is the anomaly. He’s very funny.
He really is. If you just watch his more casual conversations in interviews he just keeps people laughing. Quick wit and really good sarcasm. One of the better ones to watch.
-
1
-
-
It almost looks like we are running the same defensive plan the Steelers did week 1. That said, this DL is the difference right now. They're getting home rushing four.
-
The KC OL has been holding Groot on almost every play.
-
It really was the shared vision and lack of ego between him and Beane that has made the difference. How many coach/GM combinations are actually friends, sharing the same vision on how to build a team, never in conflict with each other, never fighting for who is the biggest reason things have went well. Then with Terry and Kim, I think they both did a great job in identifying the right people and not micro managing them. We had one of the worst front offices in the NFL for almost 20 years and it really didn't matter the moving parts, it just never fit together. A lot of teams still look just like we used to or like we used to have an owner that gets too involved.
-
On 10/7/2021 at 5:39 AM, Wacka said:
IOW, something a stat geek would care about. The only stat that matters is what the scoreboard says when the clock reads 00:00.
Be sure to send a strongly worded letter to the Bills analytics department that their contributions aren't relevant. But if we win based on said analytics wouldn't that make them relevant? Is your mind relevant?
-
4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:
It's a porn acronym.
D*****
V******
O***
A***
All of us are pausing, which words should I pick?
D***
V*****
O?
A**
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Wacka said:
Not gonnaa click on the link, but what the F is DVOA??
Very quick and dirty. It measures every distance, down, score, situation, and assigns it a value which is stored as a historical data base. Then on a per play basis teams get assigned a value that is above or below the expected outcome. Outcome is measured in conventional ways, like yards, turnovers, points, first downs, etc. Then your DVOA is the sum divided by plays. As far as I'm concerned it's the most accurate predictor of future outcomes that exists.
-
1
-
-
22 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:
Whoa.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2021/dvoa-week-4-bills-move-no-1-dominating-defense
“But the Bills are the big story, and we've got a lot of fun data to share about the incredible defensive performance they put together on Sunday. Right now, with the current opponent adjustments, the Bills come out with -134.4% defensive DVOA for Sunday's win. That would be the best defensive performance in a single game ever measured by DVOA, going all the way back to 1983.”
Thanks Tuesday, I'm a huge fan of DVOA's prognostication power and thought the last two years early in the season we were a bit overrated. Then both years we made some major progress in DVOA as the season progressed. So even more DVOA plot twists, we have a pattern of improving as the season progresses I certainly expect some regression, the KC game will be a really big test, but the bottom line with this team, if you are a bottom 20 offense you will not beat us. They say "Any given Sunday" but not this team. Eventually we will get to 20 and lower performing offenses simply won't.
-
1
-
-
Stars biggest role in the defense to take out two blockers and free our LB's. Won't get you many PFF points or stats but he is the best on the team at doing this and it's clearly helped our LB's make plays.
-
Really good post, thank you
-
7 hours ago, 947 said:
In addition to the 5 who already done it, we have:
6- Beasley- lock
7- McKenzie- lock
8- Singletary- very likely
9- Sweeney- probably
10- Kumerow- probably (may take a WR injury)
11- Breida- possible
12- Josh- maybe
13- Gilliam- maybe
14- Spencer Brown or other O-lineman- slight possibility
15- Taiwan Jones- slight possibility
1- Ertz- probably (may take another thread)
-
1
-
-
13 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:
It seemed like they did something protection wise to give JA an outlet to scramble to his right. The up the middle pressure wasn't there so he could step up and then out over and over. That could have been a matter of the guards playing better for sure, but wondering if it was something they intentionally adjusted to have happen scheme wise.
I thought it was schemed into the pass pro. From my vantage point the interior rush was getting movement which is why I wasn't screaming at the roof tops over the improved line play, which was certainly improved. Allen just stepped away and up so naturally each time away from the pressure. It will be interesting to see some all 22 breakdown.
-
I was the one who made the 2019 Allen thread last week, I wanted to circle back to his incredible performance this week as well as review the outlook with the data we have.
The data tells us teams have game planned for the Bills by avoiding the blitz. Understandably so, against five or more pass-rushers in 2020, Allen completed 150 of 226 passes for 1,791 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He was one of the best in the NFL. As of Sunday’s game, Allen and the Bills had faced blitzes on just 13.1% of his attempt’s vs 43% and 44%% in 2020 and 2019.
Washington doubled down following the same path as Pittsburgh and Miami, reducing Allen’s Blitz against attempts to just 8.7% on the year. The differential year over year is surely the largest in NFL history and is not sustainable but the pattern is clear on how teams wanted to play the Bills. Pressure with your front four and try and make Josh force it.
Teams have actually pressured Allen on the year 30.8% of his attempt’s vs 21.9% in 2020. Teams were getting home and with more people in coverage. The getting home changed against Washington dropping Allen’s pressure rate on the year to just 20.6%. The 10%+ drop now shows better stats than 2020.
As far as the game within the game. I think Daboll and Allen did a few things really well. Allen seemed very alert early to check down routes which he has had in both the two previous games as well as understanding he was only facing a 4 man-rush. Our line played well, but Allen was incredible at taking one or two steps to completely allude the rush. He seemed to feel patient in doing so just knowing he can see four lineman and that’s all that’s coming.
After he got warmed up you saw the full extent of his ability making nearly every throw imaginable and some that aren’t. Daboll called a reasonably balanced game and is no
doubt game planning against this “no pressure” style defense teams have pulled the first three weeks. Josh and Daboll likely got teams to really think about being more balanced. Excellent adjustments, Josh should start to see more blitzes. It’s punch/counter punch league and we countered in a big way.
Just to be clear, I never was being negative to Josh long term or really in that moment. Teams clearly adjusted to us, at the time we failed to beat the adjustment. We will likely see more of that again. Yes, in the future I won't jump the gun too early. Clearly such a massive difference in the way teams are approaching us this year vs last year shows a level of respect that is exciting. Peak potential arrives when no more adjustments exist which I only think can happen when you get studied and get the kitchen sink thrown at you. Perhaps that's the 2021 Allen we will eventually arrive at.
-
1
-
2
-
-
4 minutes ago, Chaos said:
Vince Lombardi sucked without an HOF QB
Bill Walsh sucked without an HOF QB
Bill Cowher sucked without an HOF QBOnly John Gruden and Joe Gibbs will super bowls without HOF QBs. Based on TBD statistical theories, the key is find a coach whose initials are JG
You forgot Bill Parcells, I don't think Simms is getting in. Also, I don't give Gibbs or Gruden additional credit based on this. Gruden was an offensive coach that happened to get one of the best defenses of all time and the Redskins just had an absolutely dominate squad in the 80's an early 90's. I agree with the poster that said BB, good coach, bad GM. He has been a very bad GM. He does a good job acquiring picks, but so many misses and very poor FA activity/trades. The conclusion of Brady's career was also dreadful in the way it was handled . Super Bowl windows still existed in New England if they would have gotten him more talent.
-
Josh is unconscious right now. One of the better first half's in Bills history at the QB position. Thrilled to see, will certainly give him his due after this one.
-
1
-
-
6"7, 265 and attacks the ball in the air. Catches everything with his hands and covers a massive catch radius with his height and arm length. Above average speed and agility for a player his size. I doubt we get in a position to draft him, but wow. The guy is a more athletic version on Antonio Gates (he played basketball in the past as well). I wasn't aware of him until I watched the the game Friday night and I came away with my jaw on the floor. I thought Kyle Pitts was the second coming, but Wood will give him a run for his money. I don't think he gets slotted like Pitts. Maybe we have a shot. Really enjoyed watching his game.
-
1
-
-
I know how folks on the board like them stories from the high school days. I had a Levi moment. I was very amped up. It was a big spot in the game. Laid a TE out and did exactly what Wallace did. I don't blame him. It's a learning experiences. I was lucky not to get called, probably should have. I was absolutely showing poor sportsmanship, but again. just was caught in the moment. That's all it was. He will learn from it and it won't happen again.
-
I think it's been an element to his hesitancy. Not all of it, but a part of it. I also don't think defenses are rushing him as uncontrolled as they have in the past.
-
Really great post, only slightly pausing as I can't find the stats myself. Curious how they get measured, does it involves just passing plays or also running plays? I would think he would get a slight edge against non rotational players either way.
Having said this, he could have had 3-4 sacks against Miami. I feel horrible for the dude. He was brutalizing them and as your stat reference it appeared like his jump was lighting. I feel so bad because it wasn't like he didn't get home in time. I mean he knocked out Tua basically at the apex of his drop. Was getting home lighting quick. We have been so impressed with Groot. As we should be. AJ can also be a special player. I think as the season elapses we will see less from Addison and likely even Hughes. These young guys can ball.
-
9 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:
Are you sure you watched it? The video was literally talking about where to throw the ball.
I just skimmed the DL rush to be honest, then assumed he wouldn't have anywhere to go with 7 dropping. Bad assumption apparently.
*oh god a watched it. well, now I feel even worse than I did before. thank you.
-
1
-
-
On 9/20/2021 at 8:53 AM, Ethan in Portland said:
Ysrds is the dumbest measure for a defense but I know that is how they are ranked. The D is playing really well by other measures. #2 in sacks with 8. They are middle of the road in takeaways with 3. Had the White INT not been called back they would be top 10 in takeaways too.
Perhaps the best stat is the YPA given up at only 4.9. That is #1 in NFL and 0.5 ahead of the second ranked team and 1.3 YPA better than last years best team atv6.2 YPA.
I've been beating the drum for better pass rush for years. Beane tried to address with veterans last year. This year he has a better mix of youth and experience.
I like YPA as the best single/simple metric, DVOA as more of a complex one. I know we will see some form of regression soon. These numbers are just too good. As you said, .5 ahead of #2 in YPA is historically good levels if that holds. I don't think any regression will be too deep. I do think this lands as a Top 3 unit by years end. We will really know where we stand after October 18th playing KC and the Titans B2B.
-
1
-
-
Against five or more pass-rushers in 2020, Allen completed 150 of 226 passes for 1,791 yards, 884 air yards, 21 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He was the best in the NFL against the blitz and had one of the best seasons in NFL history facing the Blitz. He was in the top 5 most frequently blitzed QB's in both 2019 and 2020.
Allen has faced the blitz on 13.1% of his attempts so far this season. Which will end up making him the least blitzed QB in the NFL this year if the trend continues. For context, last season he was blitzed on 42.7% of his attempts. While getting blitzed (defined as 5 or more rushers) nearly a 1/3rd of the frequency as last year, his pressure rate is actually higher in 2021, 30.8% vs 2020, 21.9% on his attempts. So ya, that's pretty telling. I mean teams are getting to him with more consistency by using less players. I think some of this is a lack of decisiveness in his reads (because his passing lanes are flooded) and certainly I'm not absolving offensive line play .
Just to summarize if teams aren't blitzing, then they are at minimum dropping 7 in coverage. Again, I don't see how the image I painted is far off from what I described, what the stats are saying. I'm pretty sure the best way to beat a 4 man front is to run the ball. Josh is not fixing anything throwing into 7 people in coverage behind this offensive line, especially if he can't break contain.
-
1
-
-
12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
First of all, "nothing is occurring" is not a reasonable characterization of anything I've written.
Second, I have provided quantifiable stats.
Have a good day.
By the way give the Kurt Warner video a watch, every play, 4 man front, 4 man pressure, drop 7. 100% of the plays. Nowhere to throw the ball.
-
1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
First of all, "nothing is occurring" is not a reasonable characterization of anything I've written.
Second, I have provided quantifiable stats.
Have a good day.
What, pocket time? If anything that is backing up what I'm saying. Allen wasn't in the pocket eating a sandwich last year for 2-3+ seconds, he got those additional seconds by breaking contain and extending plays 6-7 seconds+. Something he has barely been able to do this year. I remember Tyrod Taylor used to have exceptional "time to pass" stats. Not that hard when you run around behind the line of scrimmage like Taylor or Josh do.
Kyle Brandt makes his Super Bowl prediction. MOUNT UP!!!
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Jersey sales are not the meat of this discussion unless you think Mac Jones is also in the conversation. Everybody who wanted a Mahomes jersey this year already had one. Where Josh ascended last year, from being a jersey mostly bought by WNY and die hard fans to being the jersey of an MVP candidate. That is why Josh leads the league in jersey sales. In a couple years, regardless of how it goes, it won't be the same way because everybody will already have an Allen jersey.
Having said all this, you saw how they marketed Favre. Allen is more charismatic than Favre. Allen could go directly to ESPN right now based on his communication skills and background. So yes, Allen will become the face of the league if the Bills win a Super Bowl. It's a no brainer to push things in that direction for the league. His back story is phenomenal, he plays a style that is as gritty as they come, he has interesting anecdotes, excellent communication skills, athletic freak, man of the people, and Bills mafia is actually becoming a rather popular brand for the league. They like to sell our passion as a fan base more so much than jumping through tables, but yes, Bills mafia is becoming an NFL brand and that will only grow with further with success.