[Kurt Warner break down of Josh vs Pittsburgh week 1]

9 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Are you sure you watched it? The video was literally talking about where to throw the ball.

I just skimmed the DL rush to be honest, then assumed he wouldn't have anywhere to go with 7 dropping. Bad assumption apparently. 

 

*oh god a watched it. well, now I feel even worse than I did before. thank you. 

[Bills D...might be #1 ranked after week 2(Ranked 2nd to Carolina))]

On 9/20/2021 at 8:53 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

Ysrds is the dumbest measure for a defense but I know that is how they are ranked. The D is playing really well by other measures. #2 in sacks with 8. They are middle of the road in takeaways with 3. Had the White INT not been called back they would be top 10 in takeaways too.

Perhaps the best stat is the YPA given up at only 4.9.  That is #1 in NFL and 0.5 ahead of the second ranked team and 1.3 YPA better than last years best team atv6.2 YPA.

I've been beating the drum for better pass rush for years. Beane tried to address with veterans last year. This year he has a better mix of youth and experience.  

I like YPA as the best single/simple metric, DVOA as more of a complex one. I know we will see some form of regression soon. These numbers are just too good. As you said, .5 ahead of #2 in YPA is historically good levels if that holds. I don't think any regression will be too deep. I do think this lands as a Top 3 unit by years end. We will really know where we stand after October 18th playing KC and the Titans B2B.   

[Kurt Warner break down of Josh vs Pittsburgh week 1]

Against five or more pass-rushers in 2020, Allen completed 150 of 226 passes for 1,791 yards, 884 air yards, 21 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He was the best in the NFL against the blitz and had one of the best seasons in NFL history facing the Blitz. He was in the top 5 most frequently blitzed QB's in both 2019 and 2020.

 

Allen has faced the blitz on 13.1% of his attempts so far this season. Which will end up making him the least blitzed QB in the NFL this year if the trend continues. For context, last season he was blitzed on 42.7% of his attempts. While getting blitzed (defined as 5 or more rushers) nearly a 1/3rd of the frequency as last year, his pressure rate is actually higher in 2021, 30.8% vs 2020, 21.9% on his attempts. So ya, that's pretty telling. I mean teams are getting to him with more consistency by using less players. I think some of this is a lack of decisiveness in his reads (because his passing lanes are flooded) and certainly I'm not absolving offensive line play .

 

Just to summarize if teams aren't blitzing, then they are at minimum dropping 7 in coverage. Again, I don't see how the image I painted is far off from what I described, what the stats are saying. I'm pretty sure the best way to beat a 4 man front is to run the ball. Josh is not fixing anything throwing into 7 people in coverage behind this offensive line, especially if he can't break contain.   

[Kurt Warner break down of Josh vs Pittsburgh week 1]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

First of all, "nothing is occurring" is not a reasonable characterization of anything I've written.

Second, I have provided quantifiable stats.

 

Have a good day.

By the way give the Kurt Warner video a watch, every play, 4 man front, 4 man pressure, drop 7. 100% of the plays. Nowhere to throw the ball. 

[Kurt Warner break down of Josh vs Pittsburgh week 1]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

First of all, "nothing is occurring" is not a reasonable characterization of anything I've written.

Second, I have provided quantifiable stats.

 

Have a good day.

What, pocket time? If anything that is backing up what I'm saying. Allen wasn't in the pocket eating a sandwich last year for 2-3+ seconds, he got those additional seconds by breaking contain and extending plays 6-7 seconds+. Something he has barely been able to do this year. I remember Tyrod Taylor used to have exceptional "time to pass" stats. Not that hard when you run around behind the line of scrimmage like Taylor or Josh do. 

[Kurt Warner break down of Josh vs Pittsburgh week 1]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think this is true of even what the Dolphins and Steelers did.

 

 I'm speculating on what is occurring. Combining what I have seen so far and what has been reported by "experts". What I'm discussing is not quantifiable, unless you get advanced stats on blitz% (we already know the Steelers game was very low we already know Josh's destroyed the Blitz last year). I get it, according to you, nothing is occurring, but then again, nothing you say is quantifiable either. So I guess neither opinion has much merit since neither is rooted in anything. Just two different opinions, yet somehow you seem like yours is more rooted in logic, which I don't really understand. I mean Kubiak did say Josh played well. He got a lot of +1 grades for throwing the ball away because we had nobody open.  

[Rousseau nominated for ROW]

5 minutes ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Mostly the covid gap year. And I couldn’t be happier...

Tell me about it. I'm pretty sure the Bills target arm length at DE as a measurable they value as both Groot and Epenesa were among the highest in each draft class as far as reach goes. Then you look at the wicked production Groot had in one year, the closing ability, the sub 4.7. Groot is going to be a pro bowler by next year. I've only said that about one other Bills lineman this early in my life and it was Kyle Williams. Sometimes you can just see it and when it's that obvious, you likely have something special.  

[Rousseau nominated for ROW]

That dude is stupid long. Arms, legs. Freaks show. How was he available?

[Kurt Warner break down of Josh vs Pittsburgh week 1]

I posted a lot of this is another thread. I think from KC on teams have played a very similar strategy against our offense and it's just as much on Daboll to figure it out as Josh.

 

What do you do to young quarterbacks? Send pressure. We saw a lot of that last year. Not a good idea against Josh. Even if it is a good idea against most younger players, it allowed Josh to better isolate one on one match ups, coverages, and the pressure rarely got home. Usually we would see the blitzing player fly right past Allen as he side stepped, bounce off of him, or he would roll out and either create large amounts of time for WR's to get open or have clear running lanes. 

 

This year, it's rush 3 or 4 max. Drop everybody. Stay in a contained rush, break contain and Allen will break the pocket. Essentially we are being dared to run the ball, teams are way over committed to the pass, and teams are employing a much more Allen specific pass rush with the 3-4 they do bring. Those 3-4 are getting home fairly quick and doing so in ways where Allen is not having an easy time escaping. Meanwhile defenses have 7-8 guys dropping back and Daboll is still happy to throw into it. You can blame Josh, but I almost blame Daboll more. Somebody in the other thread said Daboll was like Roman. He is, just the opposite. As advanced as his passing game is, you can't be a one dimensional offensive coordinator. 

 

A couple other factors. Josh is exceptional in play action, has been since Wyoming. It's the only thing I knew he could 100% do right out the gate. He has great timing out of play action. He isn't really getting quality PA reps. We also had zero crowd noise to contend with last year which I think would be much more challenging to the passing game than the running game. 

 

It's entirely possible McDermott will take Dabolls play calling away if he doesn't get in line. I don't think for one second this is what McDermott wants from his offense. He's a defensive mind at heart. He likely see's what's happening and knows balance has to come. Once the offenses embraces the word methodical it will start clicking again. The big plays will come naturally and we will be fine. Until then, I think we see similar results as to what we have of late.    

[ESPN's MNF broadcast is unwatchable]

On 9/14/2021 at 7:03 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Collinsworth is the best color guy in the business to me. I know some people hate him but he is the best at his job. I think Romo had that title for a few years, and he was actually very good on the KC game on Sunday, but CBS have been obsessed with forcing him into a straightjacket otherwise and last season he was dull beyond belief. 

 

The most annoying thing about the MNF crew was them lusting after a punter who outkicked his coverage on every single punt. Like he is literally failing at his job and you are lauding him. 

We have a guy right here, now that a guy, here is an example of a guy. 

[Bandwagon fan takes]

Darn it, liking the Bills for 32 years doesn't get my fan card. Since we can never be critical in wins, I will also never be positive in losses. I shall cast nothing but unfiltered misery after each loss and fart rainbows and unicorns after each win. After another 10 years I will reapply for my fan card. Thank you for showing me the way.   

[How Much Will Epenesa Get Fined?]

Imagine opening your body up and closing your eyes. Then give somebody the size of Epenesa about a 5 yard head start to just drive directly into your chest. That's what happened. It was a very violent, but also very clean. Tua didn't see it and Epenesa had time to get his mass accelerated. If he went higher and it ended up being dirty Tua would no longer have a head.   

["If Allen Plays Like Crap This Week, Accept that He's Simply Not Good]

I don't agree with this thread and I posted the other one

[Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There are phenomena called "Recency Bias" and "Confirmation Bias" which are common fallacies.

 

The idea is that people have a conclusion, and then look for evidence that confirms their conclusion; they also look at what they've heard or seen recently, and weight it far more strongly than what they may have heard or seen in the past.

 

In other words, without context and care, our eyes can "trick" us.

 

I'm respectfully suggesting that may be at play here, at least to some extent.

 

 

We also have euphoria which often leads to disillusionment. I explained why I think this will last more than once. I don't want to be correct in that statement and I hope we don't see it play out that way. So I guess we really don't have much else to discuss on the topic. 

5 minutes ago, White Linen said:

Daboll looks like Roman.

Actually pretty funny you put it that way but I agree 100%. 

[Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version]

1 hour ago, NJKBillsfan said:

I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but is it possible that Allen was never really that good? Last year's schedule was pretty weak. Combine that with playing in front of no fans and I think it's entirely possible that last year could have been a fluke. 

 

 

 

 

 

I think 2019 is as low as Josh can go and that's good enough to certainly be a playoff QB. He's a talented player even when he's not making his reads. That said, I do think a lot is up for debate as far as if we just caught lightning in a bottle in 2020 and if he can be that type of player/we can be that type of offense. It's not as if teams were game planning for Josh outside of mobility last year, certainly not for the greatest show on turf offense. Teams blitzed us a lot last year, which is a huge mistake against Josh. It tips the coverage and minuses a defender that he usually matadors. He is being contained in the pocket. His sideline escape ropes are not as available. Teams are dropping a lot of players in coverage and using a base 4 man rush to sort of contain and crash the pocket. They aren't being as reckless with the rush. So far they are getting home. 

 

I think the solution is in the run game probably more than it is even Josh. I don't know if Josh was ever supposed to be like 2020. He's incredible out of playaction. It gives him natural timing. I posted this thread because you can see when a QB has a bad game or if it's a sign of something more serious in my opinion just based on how fast and decisive his reads are. Josh has been 100% indecisive thus far. Pat, pat, pat, back foot throw. Again, is it his fault if he's throwing into 7-8 players each down? Was the Daboll unbalanced air show supposed to last forever or does Josh and this team in general require more balance?  

[Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No offense (see what I did there?  heh) but generally speaking when someone picks a non-standard grouping to analyze, it's a sign of cherrypicking data to prove a point.  Why not pick the last 4 regular season games, or the last 8 regular season games? 

 

I expect you could pick a couple 4 week windows in 2020 and argue that Josh Allen is looking like 2019 Josh Allen.

Try week 3-6 or week 4-8

 

 

 

I was targeting data to make Allen look bad? Use your eyes as a starting point. Exclude last year if you wish. Call it 2021 (yes only two games), but how many franchise QB's forget how to read the field for consecutive games? At least 3 consecutive if you get snug with data? Not relevant and overly fit when you can't make your progressions? He doesn't know where to go with the football right now. I put the issue just as much on Daboll as Josh. If we can develop a run game perhaps teams will stop treating us like the 90's Bills, maybe this time we decide to run Thurman. Right now teams have our offense mapped and we just keep walking right into it. It's a problem with Josh and Daboll and it is not a sample size issue. It will 100% continue unless something changes based on the nature of the problem.   

 

 

13 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You don't think the Baltimore, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Miami defenses had anything to do with this?

 

Those were last year's #2, #3, #6 and #11 defenses. This year's opponents were #3 and #6. That's a very high level pair we've faced so far this year.

 

IMO the answers are simple, but not easy, to steal from Marv. Stop killing yourself with penalties. Figure out how to adapt to what they're doing to us. Play with discipline and attention to detail.

 

 

 

I suppose we shouldn't say the defense has excelled because they played two bottom third offenses going on three after Washington? That's not true. They really are this good. It doesn't work both ways 

 

 

 

[Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version]

2 minutes ago, boater said:

Such negativity in this thread after a 35-0 win. Only in Buffalo.

I would say most the negativity is the 35-0, stop talking, we won crowd. The group that is being forward about what they have seen from Josh has had some good conversation. 

[Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version]

26 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Call me crazy, but I kinda like that we can be clearly out of synch and still put up 35 points on a division opponent while shutting them out. Try to imagine this year’s D with last year’s offense. That is still quite possible. We could be VERY dangerous late in the year when trophies are being handed out. 

Honestly the truth is likely in the middle. Allen likely turns it around, who knows if it's to 2020's level, but much better than what we have seen. The defense likely takes a step back. All I'm basing this on is the fact that we have played two really bad offenses and two really good defenses. If I had to put confidence  in which one likely stays closer to it's current form as far as this season, I'm guessing defense. We will see. The defense is very encouraging. Rousseau is a steal for us. Epenesa is also turning it around. Kudos to the Bills for being patient with Epenesa. They seemed to have a vision of what he could be but that vision was a couple years out just with the way they wanted him to transform his body. 

[Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version]

36 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

Yes, it must be defenses are taking away what Josh excels at and I would say that he excels at deep medium passes that are fired in there. 

Most great QBs go thru rough times where things are taken away and the QB must grow. Hopefully Josh can adjust, grow and hopefully start hittting arcing over the shoulder passes.... I think if he can do this, our offense will start making big plays in bunches, and defenses back off of taking away what Allen does (or did) best.

Right know, or, after two weeks, Josh has been pretty poor so it is up to everyone else to get us past Washington and Houston. We absolutely need the good Allen to beat the chefs....

 

BTW, I would not count his last two playoff games as Josh Allen bad games. His receivers were all beat up and most were just decoys out there. That wasn't Josh's fault. Josh's poorer play started this year and probably has to do with signing that contract and defenses catching up to him.

 

Josh has two weeks to get back to Josh Allen 2020.

I don't have a problem not counting the playoff games. He looked the same, but it's the playoffs. So a little different.

 

As far as the defensive adjustments I think teams learned a few things last year. Daboll is happy to act like Marv Levy in our first Super Bowl, our OL is below average, and don't blitz Josh. Then the game plan becomes simple because all three concepts run together. Play 4 man fronts, drop everybody, try and get pressure with your front four using max coverage.

 

The Bills will still throw into it as we have saw. As we saw against Pittsburgh, eventually the line doesn't hold up. Blitzing Allen is futile. He just side steps blitzing players in an uncontrolled rush, it telegraphs your defense and just minuses a defender.  So all these things that teams did last year because that's just how you play normal defense, they aren't doing this year.

 

One way to get around all of these problems? Develop a real running game. If people don't recall, Josh is also elite in Play Action. I put this just as much on Daboll as anybody. Josh isn't going to get it done against the looks he's seeing. 

[Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version]

14 minutes ago, Logic said:

It's weird how people aren't allowed to point out that our quarterback has been playing subpar football -- worse than last year, no doubt -- without people defensively jumping down their throat.

Sure, the Bills still won today. Sure, his line isn't doing him any favors. Sure, he'll likely have better games this season. But it's okay to admit that Josh hasn't played very good football the last two weeks, and that if he doesn't improve -- REGARDLESS of what the o-line is doing -- it will be pretty worrisome.

It doesn't make someone less of a Bills fan, it doesn't make them unappreciative of a win, and it doesn't make them a pessimist to call a spade a spade: Through two weeks, regardless of what other circumstances or excuses you want to throw out there, Josh HAS looked closer to the 2019 version than the 2020 version. It's not just stat sheet stuff. He's missing throws that he was NOT missing last year. He's getting away from some of those great mechanics improvements he made last year at inopportune times.

Normalize being honest when the quarterback isn't playing well. 

Thank you, for the love of god. 

[Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version]

3 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

The latter is an extreme minority. The rest are simply trying to confirm priors and act smug. 

 

You're sure angry about a win and having one of the best young qbs in the league. 

 

Plenty of others? Like who? Would put him right up with Mahomes, Rogers, Wilson and perhaps Brady still among my top-10. 

Confirm priors and act smug? Nope, just worried our QB looks like a rookie of late. I think that's fair. 

 

I'm happy we won, as for the second comment, you constantly evaluate the entire body of work. As of the last two weeks I wouldn't have him in the top 15. Last year, I probably wouldn't have traded him for anybody but maybe one player and even then I like him as a person so much I would probably pass on that. 

 

Again, depends on when you evaluate him. Last year, he goes in the names you mention. As of now, not top 15. Like our win and our loss last week, I still think you can evaluate between the lines and not just go 35-0 mic drop, anybody not on board is trolling. How Josh has looked bad is why this thread was posted. If he was just missing throws that would be one thing. He doesn't know where to throw the ball. That type of issue can linger. I don't know that it will or will not. I obviously sure hope it doesn't and we see more of what Josh looked like last year with his decision making.   

[Greg Rousseau/AJ Epenesa are going to be elite DEs. What a steal!]

Both are long and quick to finish. Really like the development from AJ this year. Groot was just a steal. Future pro bowler IMO. 

[Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version]

5 minutes ago, Vertig0 said:

If we had won the game 35-21 and Josh had gone 30-41, 325 yards and 3 TDs. This thread wouldn't exist. 

 

We'd likely have a 'Fire Leslie Frasier' thread, maybe some more Tremaine hate. But we certainly wouldn't be panicking... because there was plenty of season left for the defense to get it right. 

 

There is plenty of season left for Josh to get it right too. Same with Daboll and the offensive line. We'll figure it out. 

 

I respect the criticism of this team by others, it certainly is warranted as Allen definitely hasn't been excellent and those criticisms are warranted to an extent...but for the love of God if you look at some of the post histories it's like some of you just want a participation trophy for writing "worst 35-0 victory ever, dolphins suck, we'll never beat the chiefs, ever."

 

Learn to enjoy a win. Discuss the faults sure, but stop with the 30 consecutive posts of doom.

 

If Allen had this stat line on 02/13/2022 and the Bills win the Super Bowl 35-0, would you still be complaining? 

 

 

I actually posted last week that sky was not falling. I usually don't post anything "concerning" after wins. Yes, I would be more happy with that stat line because to beat KC Allen needs to be as good as Mahomes. Rest of it won't end up mattering as Mahomes will turn any decent defense into swiss. 

[Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version]

10 minutes ago, Southern_Bills said:

It's week 2, team is 1-1 and even not at full speed still the best team in the division. Calm down, it's a long year.

 

Turn on some tape of JP Losman then send Allen a thank you note.

JP's tape would actually look pretty similar as far as the last 4 games. Athletic guy, poor accuracy, can't read the field. 

 

I don't feel like this is cataclysmic stuff. He's a very young player. But he had to take the next step to compete against KC or Tampa. Otherwise this is a wild card squad. So while it's early, this is indecision we are seeing. Complete opposite of guy that is ready to take the next step. Long season, I get it. But are you putting your money on Josh matching last last year right now? Not better, just matching? 

[Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version]

I think all the mechanical issues, especially his back foot throws are because he isn't decisive in where he is throwing. He eventually see's it, but not soon enough to step up in the throw. So i don't think it's as simple as fixing mechanics. I think it's in his reads on the field. I did enjoy the win, but I was looking at Allen hard this year just based on what level of play he needs to be at to beat Brady or Mahomes. This is going to be a playoff team even if Allen keeps playing the way he has. I just was looking for "next step" evidence.