Backintheday544
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Posts posted by Backintheday544
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JD Vance’s dossier from the Trump team leaked:
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Remember with Nebraska not splitting the ticket, PA, MI, WI win it.
current rcp avg:
PA - Harris +2
MI - Harris +1.8
WI - Harris +.7
538 avg:
PA +1
WI +2
MI +2
Nate Silver:
PA 1.6
WI 2.5
MI 2.3
Harris is winning everywhere she need to!!!!8 more years!!!!
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Update on the aggregates. With Nebraska staying split ballot, MI, PA, and WI are moving to lean Dem, Harris basically has 270 locked up.
Forecast tracker (Sep 26)
NameChance%
13 Keys ⭐️🔵Harris100
Primary Model🔵Harris75
RacetotheWH🔵Harris58.6
538🔵Harris55
The Economist🔵Harris
Split Ticket🔵Harris62
JHK🔵Harris56
DDHQ/The Hill🔵Harris55
CNanalysis🔵Harris53.5
Votehub🔵Harris
RCP🔵Harris
270towin🔵Harris
Thomas Miller🔵Harris
Princeton🔵Harris
24Cast🔵Harris74
Solid Purple🔵Harris57
338Canada🔵Harris57
David’s Model🔵Harris53.9
Nate Silver🔵Harris55.2
⭐️ forecaster has the best track record
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21 minutes ago, Tiberius said:
Trump is calling out the person who is blocking this change, which means the MAGA mob will start harassing his familiy with death threats,.
That's MAGA, just sickness
It’s a good sign he knows he’s losing PA, MI, and WI. Those 3 get Harris to 270 and a win If he got Nebraska to change, Harris is at 269 with those 3 then needs help elsewhere. -
Clear sign Florida is in play. Everyone pray for Harris in Florida! -
https://www.lawdork.com/p/federal-judge-injunction-cba-pwfa-abortion-ivf
Trump appointed judge blocks IVF protections.
Get the ad out now.
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1 hour ago, B-Man said:
Just a couple of reminders as you read this post and poll:
Kamala Harris MUST WIN Arizona.
This Arizona poll comes from the New York Times.
Just a couple of reminders as you read this post. B-Man doesn’t know math.The same pollster has Harris +4 in PA, +6 in WI. That would give Harris 270 votes without AZ. 270 are all that’s needed.
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8 minutes ago, SCBills said:
We’re getting to a pretty rough place in the political divide between men and women.
We’re rapidly accelerating to a place where the top 10% of men have constant sex with the same women on dating apps until everyone ages out and dies alone due to irreconcilable differences.
We aren’t compatible (on a macro level) at all anymore.
Gen Z having less sex than any of the previous generations is a harbinger of things to come.
College women don’t want Republicans:Lost in the many news reports, interviews, and poll questions about dating is that much of the objection young women have to Trump is not political, but personal. We found that a majority (55 percent) of young women would be less likely to date a Trump supporter, but far fewer (39 percent) say the same about the possibility of dating a Republican. The gap is even larger among young women with a college degree: more than three-quarters (76 percent) say they would be less inclined to date a Trump supporter.
https://www.americansurveycenter.org/newsletter/are-conservative-men-struggling-to-get-dates/
Being shunned on dating apps like Tinder and Bumble, lonely right wing men had to turn to The Right Stuff. But it seems to be just men:
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28 minutes ago, 4th&long said:
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50 minutes ago, B-Man said:
Keep pretending that Harris is ahead.
Trump Leads Harris in Key Sun Belt Battleground States, New Polls Find
New polls published Monday by the New York Times and Siena College show Donald Trump has gained a lead over Kamala Harris in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia and North Carolina, three crucial battleground states that could determine the outcome of the election.
The Times/Siena polls, which surveyed 2,077 likely voters in the Sun Belt states, were conducted from Sept. 17 to Sept. 21 and are the first since the presidential debate on Sept. 10. Times/Siena is ranked as the most reputable poll by FiveThirtyEight.
Arizona
The poll shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 45% among likely voters, which is outside the survey’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points for the state. The results show a big shift from August to September, when Harris led by five percentage points in the August Times/Siena poll, which was outside the margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
Georgia
The poll shows Trump leading Harris 49% to 45% among likely voters, which is within the 4.6 percentage point margin of error for the state. Trump has consistently led Harris in Georgia in several high quality polls, including in a poll conducted by the University of Georgia last week, which showed him ahead by three percentage points, though that was just within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
North Carolina
The poll shows Trump leading Harris by 49% to 45% among likely voters, which is within the 4.2 percentage point margin of error for the state. The previous poll conducted in mid-August by Times/Siena showed Harris in the lead by three percentage points, which also fell within the poll’s margin of error of 4.2 percentage points among likely voters.
https://time.com/7023360/trump-leads-harris-arizona-georgia-north-carolina/
ADDED:
NYT agrees.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/us/politics/times-siena-polls-arizona-georgia-north-carolina.html
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lol when you shift the sample +11 for Trump it’s not odd you get a +10 change. -
18 minutes ago, Orlando Buffalo said:
Correct it is a hoax meant to impress morons, I am proud of you for recognizing that
You argued the entirety of the Hunter laptop was fake and Russian but you believe that it would be impossible to fake a few posts and dates on a small random website? /Let me ask directly what evidence would make you believe it was fake?
I don’t think anything about these posts are fake. JD Vance agrees with me. -
Harris expanding the lead on the aggregate. Close to that 50 percent mark!
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For those with more than two brain cells that want to Follow early voting here’s a good follow
9 minutes ago, B-Man said:
Your desperation IS hilarious.
go vote for more rapist. We know you love little kids(this is a reference to how B-Man supports people who are known rapists and pedos)
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5 minutes ago, B-Man said:
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Biden +42 county sees a 300 percent increase in day 1 early voting compared to 2020. Wow that must mean Harris has won already because we’re seeing Dems turn out in Huge numbers in person.
Or it just means you can’t compare 2020 to 2024 due to the COVID factors.
Or you can do whatever you want and just show that you’re a dumb ass with no critical thinking skills. Although you already shown that being a Trump supporter.
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51 minutes ago, B-Man said:
I wonder why. 2020 Trump tells everyone not to sue mail in ballots. 2024 the right starts promoting mail in ballots more. So it’s not surprising the right is using mail in balloting.2020 Dems stuck to COVID protocols more and mailed in more ballots. 2024 no protocol's less mail in ballots.
We can see this trend play out in NOVA a highly Dem area, where early voting in person has increased a ton vs 2020.
Using 2020 as a baseline for anything to show the left or right is winning or losing is just a dumb analysis that shows no critical thinking.
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5 minutes ago, B-Man said:
I'm not talking about the pet issue "man"
I'm pointing out that Americans identifying as Liberal/Democrat has been shrinking
Fewer voters are identifying as liberal and more voters are identifying as moderate or uncertain, according to a new poll released Thursday.
A Morning Consult poll found that the percentage of voters self-identifying their ideological affiliation as “somewhat liberal,” “liberal” or “very liberal” has dropped 7 points over the last five years the survey was conducted.
Liberals have made up a little over or a little under a third of U.S. voters over the last five years, while conservatives have maintained the majority at just under 40 percent.
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3606418-fewer-voters-identifying-as-liberal-poll/
And after the last two years, it hasn't changed.
YOU are the minority, and you get more and more extreme it will decrease more.
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The minority is the MAGA movement that yall like to worship.
Conservative and MAGA are not the same. The people posting here about pet eating, supporting his Dementia riddled thoughts and the minority.
poll Common Dem issues line abortion and health care and the dem positions clearly win.
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6 minutes ago, Orlando Buffalo said:
This thread is truly scary, someone shows a screen shot from 12 years ago, tells you it is from a person and y'all believe it. There is literally no way for it to verified it was him and no way for him to prove it was not him since it was so long ago. This has all the hallmarks of a Russian disinformation campaign but somehow the low IQ people here gobble it up.
They were able to see his account and it had his name, personal email address. In his birthday he posted about how it’s his birthday. There’s a lot they did to verify it’s him.CNN wrote some more about their verification:
Robinson has frequently used the username “minisoldr” elsewhere on the internet. On X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, Robinson once used the minisoldr username, according to a screenshot he shared on Facebook in 2018 and datain Robinson’s old tweets.
A YouTube playlist for a user named “minisoldr” features exclusively videos of Robinson. On Pinterest, a user “minisoldr” lists his name as “Mark Robinson.”
The “minisoldr” username has also posted reviews of products and places Robinson has also publicly recommended. On Amazon, a user named “minisoldr” reviewed products frequently shared by Robinson on Facebook, including remote-controlled helicopters. And the same email address and username used on Nude Africa also left reviews on Google for two local businesses Robinson later posted on Facebook that he used.
Robinson’s unique choice of language further links him to the “minisoldr” alias on the pornographic forums. Uncommon phrases such as “gag a maggot,” “dunder head,” “I don’t give a frogs a**,” and “I don’t give two shakes of it” were used both by minisoldr on Nude Africa and by Robinson on his personal Facebook page
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Trump still getting the uneducated white vote.
But Harris up 5 nationally is great!
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Just now, B-Man said:
This is false.
But keep repeating it to yourself.
You'll "feel" better.
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Do you have polls or anything from Americans that show that?You especially are a great spokesman for false consensus effect. This cognitive bias occurs when individuals overestimate how much their beliefs, opinions, or behaviors are shared by others. People with minority opinions may mistakenly believe they are in the majority because they assume their views are more common than they actually are.
The poll I posted clearly shows 63 percent of Americans think the pet eating is false, but only 31 percent think it’s false if you’re a Trumper.
67 percent of voters disapprove of this kind of rhetoric.
You’re a minority man, get used to it.
And the 2024 Race Begins
in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Posted
I’m cool with this.