Backintheday544

I mean historically you need the Dem to get +4 in the popular vote to win with the R electoral college advantage. If Trump wins popular vote +2 it would be a landslide.

New YouGov drop: Big shift in 1 day already:

Harris officially the nominee and calling out Trump already on the debate: "He won't debate, but he and his running mate sure seem to have a lot to say about me," Harris said. "Well, Donald, I do hope you'll reconsider to meet me on the debate stage because, as the saying goes, if you got something to say, say it to my face." So far no Trump response. Is he still asleep since he’s so old or is he just scared? Maybe both!

Fox News hasn’t heard of the Streisand effect.

That second clip is the same clip someone else posted a couple days ago with different music. Weird. Tickets still available for a 7,000 seat arena tonight if anyone wants to go in PA: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-harrisburg-pennsylvania?_gl=1*14etktj*_gcl_au*MTExMTgwMDcyNy4xNzIyMTgxMDA2LjE0NTM5NDg1NDguMTcyMjE4MTEwMS4xNzIyMTgxMTAw&_ga=2.99681886.1303046278.1722355367-1589886640.1722181007 That is the same clip @Big Blitzposted on 7/26:

It’s not there yet to put money on it. I’m putting my money on Wisconsin now on Polymatket. It’s 57-43 Trump right now. I think polling will continue to favor Harris. I think anywhere you have these bigger D senate leads but Trump favored are states to put real money on right now.

Once you cut down Trumps speech to get rid of the senile rambling he does his only lasted like 20 mins.

Bad news for the Trump campaign if they need to spend money in GA and NC now.

Didn’t see this one coming: This would give Harris a landslide victory. Outlier for now but something to watch.

R vote in the poll is going 92 percent Trump. If there’s an unaccounted for R vote it’s probably not significant. The shift would be in the weight of the poll. 791-813-526 R-D-I is the weight. Exit polls in 2020 were 36-37-26. So this one weighs it 37-38-24.7. So if anything I’d say Independents are under represented in the poll if anyone. Recent polling was showing they’re favoring Kamala, so the margin is probably closer if you follow the 2020 exit polls.

Probably. Raised $3.5 million for Kamala and had Luke Skywalker and Jeff Bridges!! I’m in on that party.

I think Trump is more +1, +1.5 in PA. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris The only thing pushing Trump above 2 is an outlier +7

Not to call you stupid, but do you understand math? Notice how they have a weighted and unweighted number. The weighted number which is where the 48/45 comes from takes into account that more Dems were polled and skews the number to align with projected turn out. Thats why when you do the math underneath it aligns with the weighted number, not the raw number.

Will Florida be in play? Hundred of golf carts out to support her in the deep Trump area of the Villages.

Silvers averages for Trump are interesting. A drop post assassination and post JD Vance pick (also that’s their convention date). Two things you’d expect an uptick led to a small downturn.

NC is surprisingly in play from recent polls. I don’t know if it’s flipable tho. Nate Solver did a recent write up that a VP doesn’t deliver a state. So a popular D in a firm R state could show the ticket is more moderate and attract the people who don’t really like Trump but don’t want as far left as Kamala.

538 does a good job of aggregating the polls to look at them here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ You can also sort by state. Here’s a good Reddit thread that covers polls as they come out:

Harris up 4 in this one but it’s a MOE of 4:

Watched Pete Buttigieg's interview with John Stewart on the Daily Show today. JD Vance said childless people have "no physical commitment to the future of this country." Pete Buttigieg responded, "When I was deployed to Afghanistan, I didn't have kids back then, but I will tell you, especially when there was rocket attack going on, my commitment to this country felt pretty physical." Wow JD Vance is weird for saying childless military men don’t have a physical commitment to our country. His campaign was asked. How hard is it to answer no he didn’t have sex with a couch. Im just asking the questions here. As we dig deeper into him not denying it or his campaign denying it, it gets odder and odder.

Why hasn’t JD Vance deny it? It’s like 2008 Glenn Beck questioning. It’s out there, his campaign can easily say he didn’t. When presented an opportunity to deny it, the campaign did not. Why. I’m not saying it’s true. Maybe it isn’t. Maybe it is and the author of the tweet just uncovered something. Im doing nothing wrong by just asking why hasn’t JD Vance come out and say he didn’t have sex with a couch?

Why hasn’t the Vance team denied it? John Oliver even called the Vance team asking about it and they didn’t deny it.

How many righties on this board have posted the puppy play pic? They’re obsess d looking at it - kind of weird

Reading only conservative news sources and posting conservative articles 50 times a day on a Buffalo Bills message board - kind of weird.

Incel is a great way to describe Trump Vancers.

When age is an issue with both candidates it cancels out. Now it’s an issue with one candidate and not the other , it’s an issue. We can’t have Trump pooping his depends when he’s as scared of Putin as he is Harris.