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Florida Bills Fanatic
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Posts posted by Florida Bills Fanatic
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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:
As much as a CB would not excite me at #27 if a guy fell and the Bills pulled the trigger no complaints from me.
I agree. If this happens, it could give Beane a future opportunity to trade a CB to fill a real need or to clear some cap space.
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3 hours ago, whorlnut said:
I disagree 100%. They didn’t burn a premium pick on a guy they didn’t have a plan for.
They had a plan but he didn't have the capability. You learn and move on. They'll keep him for some depth and ST but he will not be the starting MLB.
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8 hours ago, whorlnut said:
Wrong. They do have one. They drafted bernard last year with a day 2 pick as insurance in losing edmunds. They need to develop him and make it work. Can’t keep dumping into the d and ignoring the offense with premium picks.
Bernard is not a guy that can play the middle in the McD defense. He lacks both the speed and length to do the things that this defensive scheme requires. If he was remotely capable of playing the position, Kline would not have been brought back last season. If you doubt this, go back and watch Bernard's performance replacing Edmunds. He was pathetic. Beane and McD saw this and they will take steps to protect the most important position on the defense.
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In McD's defensive scheme, a MLB that can run sideline to sideline and provide pass coverage in the middle of the field is a necessity. Nobody on the current roster is that guy. I expect this to be a very high priority for the Bills in the draft (round one or two). As the Bills fill more holes in free agency, it is becoming more clear where they expect the draft to go. We have all watched Beane work this process for a few years, so we shouldn't be surprised by any of this.
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This guy is a really complete back. He is a powerful runner with some burst, excellent in pass protection and has been underestimated as a receiver. Beane has greatly improved the RB room. Beane is also putting the Bills in a position to be flexible in the draft. At this point the only glaring hole is at MLB. Drafting WR, OL, DL, or TE remain important but not "show stopping" critical. Beane is doing what he has done in previous years to use free agency to set up for the draft. I really like this latest move.
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Both Henry and D Hop are nearing the end of the road. They are not worth high draft picks to a team that has a big QB contract and needs to have low paid contributors on the roster to manage the cap. When Beane says that nothing big will happen in free agency this year, I believe him. He is not going to mortgage the future any further. The only way a big name guy ends up being added to the Bills will probably be a free agent that isn't getting good offers and signs on a one year prove it deal. Neither Henry nor Hopkins fit that scenario. While dreamers on this site continue to fantasize about what seems like every player in the league, Beane is managing the Bills to compete every year.
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I went to London to see the Bills vs Jacksonville. There were six of us. We got our tickets through the NFL. The tickets cost was a little higher but we had our tickets before we left the US. We booked our own hotels and flights. We stayed there for a week. We did encounter a number of people that bought their tickets through some resale sites and got scammed. There were also scalpers selling tickets outside the stadium (I don't recommend using them).
If you're going to spend the money to travel to the UK, don't cut corners on the tickets. Picking your own hotel lets you locate conveniently to the things you want to do when you are there. We made sure that we were located near the subway to make travel easy. That turned out to be a good strategy.
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Foreman, Damian Harris and some other FA's could provide some better power running inside without breaking the bank. The Bills can't keep using Allen for their power running game. Nothing slows down a pass rush better than strong running between the tackles. It will also put some credibility in the play action pass plays.
I don't think Lombardi Lenny is a viable answer at this stage of his career. I don't think he is a process guy either.
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He is going to miss the 2023 season and return for 2024.
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Davis wasn't the same after having the high ankle sprain. If the Bills had another comparable guy, he would not have been rushed back to play. The Bills really need to have at least four guys that can play ( cover for injuries, illness, and game plan flexibility ). Diggs and Davis are two with Shakir likely to become the third. Free agents this year don't have the answer IMHO. They need another guy in the draft that can push Davis and Shakir for playing time. If they don't draft a receiver in the either the first or second rounds, I'll be surprised.
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For anyone who never had a serious back injury or back surgery, it is no joke. To return from surgery in a short period of time and compete as a starter in the NFL, is a significant accomplishment. We rightfully focus on the times he was beaten but we should not completely disregard the times he absolutely destroyed a defender. There just weren't enough of those plays.
I have thought that quickly getting away from the running game put the o-line at a huge disadvantage in several games. This made Brown and others look worse than they actually were. Allen's propensity to hold the ball too long also skews the data.
As many have said over the last few weeks, getting help on the o-line, improving the receiver room, better play calling, and a commitment to running the ball will all work together to create improved offensive performance. Brown wasn't great but swapping him out isn't the silver bullet that some believe it to be.
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5 hours ago, JaCrispy said:
Yup, I thought we should have traded Edmunds last year and signed Wagner- but of course, that would have taken foresight from our FO…😉
Actually, it would have taken inept shortsightedness by the FO. Even though Wagner had a good season, he has just about run out the string. Why is he being released from a bad roster? The answer to that may tell us all we need to know. At this stage of his career, he isn't the guy that takes away the intermediate pass routes in the center of the field. This is an important function in the scheme run by the Bills' defense. Edmunds is the guy that lets the Bills do many of the things that they do in pass coverage. The Edmunds haters would do well to watch a bunch of all 22 video of the Bills defense before making some of these pronouncements.
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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
A teardown doesn't really fit where the Bills are in any event. I can't think of a single team in my time watching the NFL who with a 27 year old top 5 QB decided to tear down? Maybe Houston the year before the Watson stuff came out.... but not sure that is a model to follow anyway given what has happened there since!
The Bills do have two options though this offseason - both almost certainly start with a Josh Allen restructure to free up $21m of space:
1. Kick the can some more and try and bring this core back again - I summarise the key elements of this option as:
- still probably letting Poyer walk;
- re-sign Edmunds;
- extend Oliver and lower the cap hit;
- restructure at least two of Diggs, Milano, Dawkins and White (Diggs gives you about $5.5m the rest can all give you about $4m each);
- replace Saffold with another mid-range FA guard;
2. Begin the re-load (not re-build) - I summarise the key elements of this option as:
- letting Poyer walk;
- letting Edmunds walk;
- exploring trade market for Ed Oliver;
- using some of the less valuable but easier restructures on younger guys (Johnson and Knox for example can give you c.$2m each - you might still need to take the $4m from Milano)
- sit out free agency (save for a couple of low value vets that don't affect comp pick formulas)
Which I think is preferable really depends on what the projections for the cap beyond 2023 look like. I know some think the cap could jump by nearly $20m again in 2024 and maybe even as much as $30m in 2025 as new TV and streaming revenues come on stream. But until those contracts are signed people don't know.
Option 1 would all but guarantee the Bills win the division again (save for any major injury that costs Josh games) but it would reduce your flexibility in 2024 and 2025 in terms of being able to move on from some of your older vet guys - the 2017 generation basically. It keeps the Bills in the spot they were last offseason and are before making moves this time where they are really looking to the draft and FA to find that one more special piece that makes the difference.
Option 2 to me involves the Bills basically making 3 new starting holes on their defense to add to the 3 or 4 on their offense in a year when they only have 6 draft picks to address them (though you'd either get a starter or a pick back for Ed) and would rely on either some backups stepping up, some draft picks making an early impact or finding some extremely good value FAs. The advantage of that option is you'd be looking at potentially going into 2024 with as much as $35m of space (just by restructuring Josh forget any other deals) and somewhere between 8 and 10 draft picks. That allows you to re-shape your roster a bit more drastically.
I think both are viable options. Option 2 probably makes 2023 a less obvious chance to contend but beyond that allows a pivot towards greater allocation on offense more quickly. Option 1 you can still make that pivot but it probably happens more gradually over 2-3 years rather than a quicker re-set. I'm sure the Bills (and the rest of the league) has a better sense of the future of the cap than I do based on reading a couple of articles but I think the more you genuinely see a cap "explosion" in 2023 and 2024 the more I lean towards option 1. The less sold I am on that happening the more I lean towards option 2.
Excellent analysis! Given the unpredictable nature of NFL personnel moves, we may actually see elements from both of your options. I'm probably more optimistic than most of the people posting comments on this site. I do think that the play of several Bills ( White, Dawkins, Brown, Poyer, Oliver, Phillips, Davis, etc. ) were effected by past and current injuries. Contrary to the thoughts of some, I believe Beane will make the right moves to keep the team moving forward. I have also seen the cap growth projections for 2024 and 2025. These will factor into Beane's actions during this off season.
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I think there is a real chance that the Bears move on from Fields. He could end up in Atlanta, Carolina or New Orleans. Bears use their number one overall pick to select a QB or trade down a few spots and still take a QB plus collect a few more picks. If Chicago plays this correctly, they can reload at QB and collect a few more early round picks to rebuild their pathetic roster.
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He will be a lower cost special team guy to replace some higher paid special teams guys. This is common around the league and the Bills have had the luxury of spending on special teams but really can no longer afford to do that as much. Most teams with high cost core players have to have special teams players that can actually provide usable roster depth at a position. Taiwan and some others will become expendable because of their cost and they really don't provide usable depth at a position. The savings may seem insignificant but when you are up against the cap limit with a good roster, even the small savings are important.
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Sounds like a guy in the middle of a contract negotiation. We've seen this with others around the league. When a player says he going to stay, his agent loses a bunch of leverage. I trust that Beane will make the correct decision but not retain him at an unreasonable cost. If he can fit into the overall CAP strategy for the team, Beane will sign him.
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Although I like him, a one year deal at the veteran minimum doesn't scream a valued starter to me. He'll probably be a bench player with limited playing time. If he is anything more than that, the Giants will be in big trouble with the position again.
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Winning a game doesn't mean that you aren't a loser. Ju Ju would do well to recognize that.
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I worked with Charlie for several years after he left football. He was a great guy and fun to be around. Charlie was good at his job and the people that reported to him in his department really liked him. I remember him as a player but luckily got to know him as a person. It's a sad day when we lose wonderful people like Charlie.
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13 hours ago, whorlnut said:
Not sure they would have taken Justin Jefferson. I think they wanted Tee Higgins, but saw something at his pro day that didn’t sit well with them. That in itself is unsettling as a fan, considering they need another WR this off-season. If they didn’t see something in Higgins thay told them he was worth a first round pick then should we have much hope this draft?
I remember a concern that Higgins could be susceptible to hamstring and calf injuries (due to his physical stature). I didn't buy it at the time but he has missed games with leg injuries.
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I think Shakir will win the job but he could get pressed into use on the outside if Diggs or Davis miss any games. I also believe that both Cook and Hines have the ability to play out of the slot, if needed. Their flexibility can be used to create match up problems for defenses. I don't think the Bills used them effectively last season.
I don't think McKenzie, Crowder or Beasley are the answers either. We may also see a steady parade of UDFA receivers during training camp as they look for a guy they can develop.
Let's not forget that improving the o-line and run game will also improve the passing game. Play action passing gives a big edge to receivers.
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Very good work putting together this mock draft. I'm skeptical that Torrence lasts to pick 34 but it isn't beyond reason.
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7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Higgins is a #1 receiver talent. But he isn't Cincy's #1 receiver.
He doesn't deserve the best receiver in the league money but he does deserve paying like a #1. They should trade him to a team in the top 15 of the draft and take a tackle.
He won't. He is really good.
I think you are exactly correct. I also believe his contract demands are part of a strategy to get out of Cincinnati. As long as he is there, he will be viewed as their #2 and his stats and recognition will be suppressed. Players want recognition and the pay and endorsements that come along with that. I'm not sure that there will be many teams willing to give up a bunch of picks to get him but it only takes one to make it happen. Some potential trade partners may be concerned about his recent injury history. He has missed a few games in the last two seasons. Paired with the right QB and WR group, Higgins can be a game changer.
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2 hours ago, Mango said:
No NFL team has two expensive WR and QB under their big contract. TB sorta comes close but Brady’s cap hit was $12M this year and he is now off the books.If the Bengals can’t make it work with $100M in space, then there’s no way the Bills can.
Actually, Brady isn't off the books in TB. I just saw that they will be carrying $23M in dead money with some procedural moves possible to reduce it to $11M this year. They kicked the can down the road and it is now time to pay up.
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Bills Draftees Don't Contribute Much
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Sometimes rookies struggle with the complexity of the playbook on both sides of the ball. Shakir and Elam may not have had a sufficient grasp of the playbook or had some other deficiency that was seen repetitively in practice. The coaching staff is in a better position to know better than any fan.