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Florida Bills Fanatic
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Posts posted by Florida Bills Fanatic
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8 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:
Trading pick 27 (Justin Jefferson) in 2020 to the Vikings for Diggs. Not saying Diggs has been a bust, but clearly any rational person would take a guy about to turn 24, over a guy about to turn 30.
How was Beane supposed to know that Jefferson would be this good and that he was even going to be available at pick 27? All of this retrospection of past drafts is a bunch of crap. It's easy to look back on every team's moves and throw rocks. When I look at the roster and cap that Beane inherited and compare it to the roster today, I have to say that he has done an excellent job. Wins and losses tell the story, not results of any one individual draft pick or one free agent signing. Every GM has some hits and misses with some good and bad breaks along the way. We all tend to let players off the hook and blame coaches and GM's, when the reality is that some players choose not to put in the effort to be good at their job.
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A couple of weeks ago, I spent some time with a friend of mine that works in the NFL (not the Bills). He had some interesting takes on some of the Bills recent personnel moves. He believes McGovern was a steal and will prove to be a solid player for the Bills. He also could not believe that Torrence fell to the Bills in round two. He compared him to Ruben Brown. He also liked the addition of Sherfield, Harty, and Shorter. Overall, he thought Beane had done an excellent job and that the team was better than the 2022 version. He believes that Hyde and a healthy White are the real difference makers that allow the Bills to do much of what makes their defense very good.
He talked a little bit about the AFC East. According to him, the JESTS are much over rated by a New York driven sports media that is desperate for some degree of relevance. He believes that Rodgers is pretty much at the end and they gave up way too much for him for what may turn out to be a one year shot. He thinks Miami will be decent but will continue to struggle with road games. He's not convinced that Tua can remain healthy enough to carry the team for multiple seasons. All he said about NE was that they are a joke.
He also said that Frazier was shown the door and that some in the Bills front office wanted him gone after the 13 seconds in KC.
After our talk, I felt better about some of the things that Beane had done.
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4 hours ago, BruceVilanch said:
So... Can you fair catch an onside kick?
No, because the ball is bounced to the receiving team.
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Embassy Suites downtown Buffalo is close to a lot of things and is a nice hotel. It costs a few bucks but is well worth it.
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3 hours ago, mushypeaches said:
They’re not going to burn a roster spot on Matt Barkley or any other third QB
I believe the third QB doesn't count against the game day roster limit. This is about maintaining the quality of the game, having competitive contests, keeping TV sponsors viewership numbers up, and not disappointing fans. Whether we disagree with it or not, the owners have seen the situation as a major problem and have taken this step to fix it. It will be invisible to us unless a team loses two QB's during a game.
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When I was a kid, I was lucky enough to see him play in a game in Cleveland against the Giants. I still remember that he looked like the fastest and strongest guy on the field. I've never seen another back play like him. It's sad that most people really don't know that much about him.
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Terry's a smart guy. He probably looks at this forum for all the advice he needs. All he has to do is read the posts here and he will know everything about football that an owner should know.
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I hope he holds out and gets big money to further destroy their cap structure............have I ever indicated how much I detest the JESTS
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Ray was an outstanding college player and was good for a couple of years in Denver. Some bad coaching, nagging injuries, and some bad luck pushed his career into the ditch. If he can reclaim any significant portion of his past ability, he could become a valuable rotational player at a very cheap price. I think it is very wise of Beane to give this player a shot. If it doesn't work out, there's no big loss but if it does, it could be a significant benefit to the team.
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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Think the Cowboys, Commanders, 49ers, Jags, Bears and Jets are too high.
Bills, Saints, Ravens, Colts and Lions too low.
I agree and I also think AZ Cards are too high.
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Beane will draft one S/LB hybrid on day three. It will be someone that profiles like Milano (size, speed, etc.).
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I have one small disagreement with the original post. Having attended both away games against the Cheatriots and the Jests, the trash fans of the Jests are the worst by a long shot. The Cheatriots are a distant second. The Cheatriot fans can't even be a__holes successfully. They are a pathetic bunch and deserve their present state. Maybe the owner can treat them all to a massage for a happier ending this season.
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This is just a very average wr draft group. Desperate GM's will over draft these guys. The smart teams will draft receivers at draft positions of appropriate value. After the top four guys, the next 20 have very similar draft value. None of them have a complete game or have limited speed or inconsistent hands. Additionally, there seems to be a couple of receivers that show up in later rounds from smaller schools that go on to have nice careers. Bills have always done a good job of scouting smaller school players.
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It seems to me that the JESTS overpaid for a guy that is on the downward side of his career. NYC sports media will over hype the value. I'll also be interested in the contract restructure that is done to fit him into the cap. I'm guessing that a fair amount of money will be kicked down the road and have the potential for a bunch of dead money when he retires. This is the kind of move that a team has to make when they blow two consecutive top five QB draft selections.
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I'm not big on Addison but I also wasn't big on T Y Hilton. Addison has been compared to Hilton by some people. If Addison can have a career like Hilton, I'd sign up for that at pick #27. I was wrong on Hilton and I may be wrong on Addison too.
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This sounds like an agent trying to get his guy off a bad team and onto a real contender. I'll believe it when I see it.
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Darius was a major disappointment for me. The guy was a beast at Alabama and did crap in Buffalo and was even worse after he got paid.
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Just another indication that the Cheatriots are continuing to unravel. A bad roster and a head coach that may be past his "use by date". I am really enjoying their struggles but what I enjoy more is how their obnoxious fans have crawled back in their hole. It's awesome.
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These kinds of comparisons are difficult at best. Drafting position plays a huge part (drafting first vs 32nd). Drafting to a very good roster vs drafting to a train wreck can make the player's contribution look worse than it really was. I look at longevity in the league as a fair indicator of a player's overall value. Players move around the league for a variety of reasons but the good contributors seem to be able to catch on with other teams and have long careers.
For me, I only need to look at the win/loss record to know who has done the better job.
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Looks like most of the activity that was identified was on day two or three guys. It is still good information that may tell us which position groups that interest them for the middle and late rounds. I still believe that MLB, WR, and DE/DL will be picked in the first three rounds (order will depend on the value at the time of the pick). If a really good OT falls to 27, they probably won't pass on him.
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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I am on record as not thinking this is the strongest draft I've ever seen (understatement). But there are still a few guys that as I have worked through the tape have taken my eye as potential sleepers. This thread in previous years has been where I've highlighted the likes of Robby Anderson, DJ Reed, Juwan Johnson, our own Tyrel Dodson and Jaylen Watson, the Chiefs 7th round rookie corner who started in the Superbowl.
So here is my list for this year's draft (grades are where I have them not where I necessarily think they will be drafted):
Jose Ramirez, EDGE, Eastern Michigan
4th round grade
Ramirez flashed for me in the East-West Shrine game back in January. He is just a natural pass rusher. Love his explosion, love his rip move and when he gets those long arms on blockers they find it difficult to get back into the down. He is an older prospect, will turn 24 right after the draft, but that means he comes in as a man ready to go. He is probably a situational pass rusher at the next level in sub packages rather than an every down starter but I expect a team to take a swing maybe around the round 4 comp pick range.
Darius Rush, Cornerback, South Carolina
2nd round grade
It is rare I include someone on a sleeper list that I am this high on but even after impressive display at the Senior Bowl the hype train has been slow to kick into gear for Rush. He ran a 4.36 at the Combine, he has size, super long arms and he is aggressive at the catch point. Okay he doesn’t have the quick twitchy feet you might ideally want and maybe he is more of a zone guy than someone who can mirror receivers in man coverage, but I think this is a plug and play outside corner at the next level.
Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Wide Receiver, West Virginia
5th round grade
The reasons to like Ford-Wheaton are obvious. He is 6’4, ran a 4.38 at the Combine, has long arms and really good hands in contested catch situations. The reasons to dislike him are the route running which is imprecise, the route tree which is non-existent, and the fact that he doesn’t seem to play to his speed or separate that well. But he must be worth a punt for someone because if you can coach him up he can be a monster.
Jalen Graham, Linebacker, Purdue
5th round grade
One of my favourite players in the draft and the consensus on him seems to be he could even go undrafted. But man does this guy play with energy and passion. He is like a cannonball firing at the snap and when he hits you know you have been hit. He also displays good coverage skills as a former safety, especially in zone. You might need to commit some time to his development but this kid can play.
Trey Dean III, Safety, Florida
4th round grade
Another that I know I am higher than the consensus on, but I love him. He is probably too easy to manipulate in coverage to be an every down starter early, but he can be used as a matchup weapon in the passing game. I think as a sub package dime he could cover some of the league’s more athletic tight ends and even match up with bigger slot receivers.
Jordan Mims, Running Back, Fresno State
6th/7th round grade
Jordan Mims isn’t going to wow anyone with speed, he isn’t a power back either, but he is the kind of guy who can carve out a niche for himself in the NFL as a receiving back on 3rd down. He has good vision both when rushing and running after the catch and he has some return value. Kid has a chance to stick on a roster somewhere and make an impact.
Chandler Zavala, Guard, North Carolina State
3rd round grade
I only watched Zavala this week after a friend messaged me on the back of his pro-day. Zavala wasn’t even invited to the Combine but did play at the Shrine game. He wasn’t one that particularly took my eye that day either but watching his film I like this guy. I think he is a better pass blocker than run blocker, but he has nice nimble feet, he can move when he gets out in front and he uses his hands well. The only negative is his age - he is already 24 - but I think he can start in the NFL as a rookie.
As ever the invitation is for people to flame away / disagree or add their own! Last year Pacheco, Woolen and Malcom Rodriguez were all mentioned by posters in the sleeper thread.
I agree with you, Graham can play. Great post!
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14 hours ago, Dubie54 said:
I think it's 70% positional value/need and 30% BPA, which means we are picking the guy that we best feel fills a needed gap but if by some token of good fortune somebody drops to us that we can't ignore, we take 'em, with the understanding that we will need to fill that gap we missed on in a later round. My sense is that you enter a draft with a number of holes that need to be taken care of, dare say have to be filled, and you approach it from that standpoint. If we come out of the draft with a bunch of guys that were BPA at every point when we picked we might just come out of the draft not a whole lot better off because we still have glaring weaknesses that weren't addressed. I would argue the top 3 positions of need are: OL, LB, WR. Sure there are other positions of need and we will deal with those but I would argue those are the top 3. Now the key is in what order do you deal with that and that my friends is why BB is paid the big bucks and why is butt is on the line this year with how we come out of this draft.
Excellent analysis. I'm not sure that the Bills are as freaked out over the o-line as many of us are. I agree that they will add to the o-line but it may happen in round 4 or later. We also should not be surprised if a DE is taken among the first three picks. I think the Bills are still concerned about their inability to get to the passer with a four man rush. I think they will be looking for a guy that is quick off the edge. None of the current incumbents (except Miller) are quick off the ball. McD was not a big blitz guy in Carolina, hasn't been one in Buffalo, and probably doesn't want to become one now.
WR and LB are more widely viewed as obvious needs. With the free agent moves already made by Beane for WR, he may be looking at some day two guys that need some development. He may believe that the worthwhile guys will already be gone by pick 27. I just have a (sick) feeling that Campbell or Sanders are going to be their early target. It's almost like when many of us knew that Oliver wasn't going to get past the Bills at 9 overall. I didn't like the pick then and I still don't like it now.
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16 hours ago, Chaos said:
Dawson Knox is paid like a star player. He has certainly flashed star talent. And he seems like a wonderful human being. I feel like the Bills don't get the expected production of out his salary level because he needs to help in pass protection too much. A couple of questions which I am sure the more technical football analysts at TBD can help answer.
1)If we simply add a solid tackle, and handle protections that way, does Knox automatically become more productive
2)If we added a big blocking TE like Darnell Washington, would that make Knox able to be more productive as the pass catching TE/someitme slot receiver3)If we added both a solid tackel and a blocking TE like Darnell Washington, could Knox's pass catching protection grow to the Kelce/Gronk level?
I feel like Knox is a break out star waiting to happen, but if it doesn't this year, it probably never will.There is a number 4. what would it be like if the Bills had a running back that could actually function well in pass protection.
All of this is conjecture, Knox is not the primary receiver on many plays. He was used a lot to clear zones or create congestion for underneath crossing routes. The Bills don't use their TE as a featured receiver of choice. Knox is a match up problem for many defenses but it seems that they use that to effect the coverage of other guys. When plays break down, Knox appears to be at his best. He has shown a knack for finding a hole in the defense and getting himself in Allen's line of sight. Some of his biggest plays have come on broken plays.
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When I look at the WR's that will be available at pick #27, I don't see a difference with the guys that will be available on day two of the draft. I'll bet a lot of other teams will see it that way as well. DT is a fairly deep group in the draft and good players will be available in rounds 3, 4, and 5. Good players in o-line, edge rushers, and MLB are not as plentiful. Looking at what the Bills have done with free agents, I don't expect them to draft any interior o-line guys early. I think pick #27 will be a pick of opportunity (assuming that a player that they like falls, as they often do). With all that said, Beane will get a MLB, WR, DT/Edge, and OL. The order will be driven by the value available at the time of selection (BPA in a position of need). I just need to keep telling myself not to get crazy upset when they draft someone that does not fit into the fans' view of the world.
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SI dumping all over McDermott at #22
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
SI has not really been relevant for a number of years. Putting out controversial opinions is the only way they can hope to draw back readers. They are a joke and so are most of their contributors.