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VW82

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Posts posted by VW82

  1. So we go into the draft having bolstered our DL, DE, and WR while needing DL, DE, and WR. Outstanding. 

     

    We still need DB help. I don't know who our starting FS is. Can Bishop move from SS to FS? Who starts opposite of Benford?

     

    Our list of obvious holes grows smaller and smaller. We're very clearly a legit SB contender at this stage, and it isn't just because of Josh. 

  2. Makes sense in theory. I will always advocate for guys who can separate so Josh can see them open as appose to throw them open which he isn’t great at. 
     

    Im sure Chargers fans would tell us he’s a tease and that’s probably true. Fingers crossed. 
     

    Edit: this takes the pressure off us having to reach in the draft. We should take a receiver anyway but don’t necessarily have to do so top 60 now if it isn’t there.

  3. I agree with OPer from the standpoint that we can take more swings early in the draft knowing we don't need to draft for need, except perhaps at 1T. The core group is locked up. 

     

    Further to above, I feel like Beane has done a better job with upside picks in the first few rounds than need/depth picks where we've swung and missed badly a few times. Perhaps that alone is worth the cost of the paying home grown, non-star players. 

  4. Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

    Not a horrible deal but my least favorite of the 3. This feels like an overpayment but 🤷🏻‍♂️. If he becomes a 10-11 sack guy it’s okay. He doesn’t need to become Myles Garrett but he needs to becomes Josh Sweat. They still need 1 or 2 top 100ish players. The top of the roster needs to get better. 

     

    I'd way rather see the money spent on the line for an already productive player than for a LBer that routinely gets wiped out if OL reaches second level.

  5. On 3/7/2025 at 10:29 AM, ColoradoBills said:

     

    Bernard's early ankle injury was nothing but bad luck.  I don't link that to any worries concerning his size.

    The October pectoral strain if anything may be a training issue.

     

    IF Bernard stays relatively healthy throughout this contract, I think it's a win for the team.

     

    Yes, pectoral injuries are often a sign of "training" methods when players need extra help coming back from injuries or just looking for a boost in performance. 

     

    Every Mike looks better with a better performing line but I found it troubling how often Bernard just gets wiped out. This was an issue in 2023 as well even though he made more splash plays. I would've had Rousseau, Benford, and Cook higher up on the re-sign list than Bernard, but i'll continue to wait on contract details before outright killing the deal. Bernard is a decent player, just not top-10-LBer-in-the-league good. 

    • Thank you (+1) 2
  6. If we don’t extend or trade him, can Cook just sit out the year and become a FA or would his fourth year essentially remain unvested (i.e. he’d still be Bills property)? 
     

    I understand that scenario probably isn’t likely but it makes a big difference to leverage in negotiations. 
     

    Edit: if I’m Cook there’s no way I’m stepping back on the field without a new deal. Way too much risk and like it or not his market value has to be very now. Like, he’d probably get 15M as crazy as that sounds.

  7. Hard No on that. He isn't even a three down back. Great runner. Decent pass catcher out of the backfield. Not a good enough route runner to split him out wide or even from the slot. 

     

    If there's a decent trade offer between now and the draft then you pull the trigger and then draft and sign someone. If not, you still sign a productive vet, take it into camp and wait for him to show up in week three after some fines. At no point do you pay him 15m AAV. 

    • Agree 1
  8. There are fit issues with Amari imo. Despite his physical profile, we seemed to use him mostly on passing downs. Guys need to be able to excel both in run and pass game to really work in this offense, with Shakir being a notable exception. 
     

    If Amari is prepared to take a short-term role player deal then sure. I doubt he’s going to do that. Sometimes it’s best to just move on. 
     

     

  9. 1 minute ago, T.E. said:

    This is what actually happened. McDermott went into playoff choke-job mode and put Allen on the shelf for the entire second half because he was so terrified of turning the ball over. Then he instituted his full-time prevent defense which didn't even make an attempt an attempt to go after Jackson or do anything aggressive.

     

    You can't get outplayed if your coqch doesn't allow you to play in the first place.

     

    This is at least a fair argument.

    • Like (+1) 1
  10. 9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

    all this work and i could have spared you the trouble- i'll agree our defense is merely poor in the playoffs when considering 'average relative playoff ppg surrendered vs regular season including games played in a hurricane and against bo nix'

     

    now we are in full agreement

     

    Nope. The point of that exercise was that our playoff defense has been statisically above average over the McD era despite your claims to the contrary. Read that post again.

  11. 37 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

    you understand allowing 380ypg and 24.8ppg would put you at or near the bottom of NFL defenses, season in season out

     

    maybe you don't. either way historically bad playoff defense

     

    Let's do a McD-era experiment and calcualte relative points given up defensively per playoff opponenet (i.e. +/- points given up relative to opponents' regular season average). I understand this isn't perfect because there are a lot of variables in a playoff game but presumably some of those variables will even out over 7 seasons. In order to keep this apples to apples I'm going to limit to final score through four quarters (no OT). Also, + is bad - is good. 

     

    2017: Bills vs. Jags: -6.1

    2019: Bills vs. Houston: -5.1

    2020: Bills vs. Colts: -4.2

    2020: Bills vs. Ravens: -26.3

    2020: Bills vs. Chiefs: +8.4

    2021: Bills vs. Pats: -10.2

    2021: Bills vs. Chiefs: +13.8

    2022: Bills vs. Dolphins: +7.6

    2022: Bills vs. Bengals: +0.9

    2023: Bills vs. Steelers: -0.9

    2023: Bills vs. Chiefs: +5.2

    2024: Bills vs. Broncos: -18.0

    2024: Bills vs. Ravens: -5.5

    2024: Bills vs. Chiefs: +9.4

     

    Average relative playoff defense: -2.214

     

    So...out of 14 playoff games in the McD era, on average we've held playoff opponents to 2.214 points below their regular season average. 

     

    Yes, we've had some trouble with specific match ups, but STOP WITH THE HYPERBOLE. WE ARE NOT HISTORICALLY BAD EVEN IN THE POSTSEASON!!!

  12. 7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

    is this seriously news to you? this is from last season- adding this seasons performance will cement it further

     

     

     

    This is a classic strawman argument. Rather than addressing my objection that we're historically bad, you pivot to trying to compare us to our regular season selves so as to make it seem like we're historically bad (in comparison with ourselves). Nice try.

  13. Just now, GoBills808 said:

    at least quote me lol

     

    and yes- historically bad

     

    Bills defense against the Chiefs in their four playoff losses

     

    17 touchdowns
    7 field goals
    6 punts
    3 end of half kneel-downs
    3 end of game kneeldowns
    2 turnovers (both fumbles)
    1 missed field goal

    Average points per game: 34.75
    Points per drive: 3.56

     

    For the record, the Detroit Lions led the NFL in points per drive at 3.09 in 2024.

     

    If you’re keeping score (pun intended), the Bills have allowed 24 scoring drives out of 39 possessions. Take out six kneel-downs and it’s 24 out of 33, for a scoring rate of 72.7% and a touchdown rate of 51.5%. The Chiefs have never had to punt more than twice in any of these postseason meetings and have averaged 34.75 points in their wins. Sunday’s game marked Kansas City’s season high in points scored (32) and tied for a season high in first downs (28).

     

    So four different teams playing against four different teams spread out over four years while completely discounting everything else that happened over those four years...c'mon man.

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