JGMcD2
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Posts posted by JGMcD2
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2 hours ago, apuszczalowski said:
I think of moneyball in Baseball the same way. it worked great for the A's when they were the only ones doing it, but once other teams started adopting it, those teams start doing the same and the demand starts going up for those players and it just swings the market in a different direction. It works great when your one of the few doing it, but it gets harder to do when everyones trying it.
You’re 100% right. That’s why if you’re the best at your craft, like a Bill Belicheck, you start to see when things are going to zig and you zag.
Sports are cyclical, people think it’s a pattern of upward growth. Instead you go through the phases of rebuilding, competing and declining. Being able to stretch out that competing cycle by reinventing yourself is how you stay on top.
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On 4/28/2020 at 4:09 PM, JGMcD2 said:
It doesn’t make any sense to me. There are strict rules in place right from the NFL because of COVID. Why does he think he needs to go to the house of his OC to get the playbook?
The playbooks can be sent electronically right on to the players team issued iPad or Microsoft Surface tablet. There was no need for this.
It’s not a coincidence that Brady is new and is going to be working hand in hand with Leftwich installing a whole new offense trying to win a Super Bowl in a 1-2 year window.
Where there is smoke there is fire. NFL covering up for the golden goose again.
I don’t really care about Gronk’s comment.... if he had the playbook that’s dumb on the Bucs part because he could’ve done whatever he wanted with it.
What I think is funny is that he admits he received his playbook TABLET in the mail from the Buccaneers.
Yet, Tom Brady had to go to the house of the offense coordinator to pick his playbook up.
Doesn’t add up.
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2 minutes ago, Old Coot said:
During the sports lull lets do some speculating.
Presumably Diggs will be WR 1 and will often draw double coverage. Can our WR 2 (presumably Brown but feel free to discuss whomever you think will be WR 2) consistently beat one on one coverage?
If not, can play design accomplish this, for example by stick or other route combinations.
Well he was often double covered last year as our #1 WR and had the best year of his career. 72 catches, 1060 yards and 6 TD. I don't think he will have any issues.
If he can't beat single coverage on a given play, there is also Cole Beasley.
I have a feeling on a given play 1/3 of those guys will be open.
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It doesn’t make any sense to me. There are strict rules in place right from the NFL because of COVID. Why does he think he needs to go to the house of his OC to get the playbook?
The playbooks can be sent electronically right on to the players team issued iPad or Microsoft Surface tablet. There was no need for this.
It’s not a coincidence that Brady is new and is going to be working hand in hand with Leftwich installing a whole new offense trying to win a Super Bowl in a 1-2 year window.
Where there is smoke there is fire. NFL covering up for the golden goose again.
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1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:
He will be Bills Property this year. If he clears waivers when cut at camp (he will) he will be placed on the PS 11th IPP exempted roster spot (meaning just like last year can’t move).
now he is off the IPP program after this year and will be like any other player with no roster exemption
MAJBobby I believe you’re the one who has the best understanding of the new roster rules this year.
I’m familiar with how the IPP works, but is there any language in the new rules that would allow us to activate him on game day and return him after the game like we would any other PA guy? Or it still remains that once he’s put on the PS he can’t be activated at all during 2020?
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53 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:
Ha - related, the Netflix series with Fromm in it in his senior year in Hs is pretty cool. Looks like the same as he does now and he’s a competitive sob. Very likeable though
I’ve been watching it today as well.
Fromm is a very likeable kid... on the flip side... I CANNOT stand Tate Martell.
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48 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:
The head scratcher for me was when somebody moved up ONE pick in Round One. I think one of the teams was SF, but I can’t recall who gave up picks to trade up one slot. It makes no sense at all.
It was the Bears moving up to take Trubisky.
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1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:
With Beane on Zoom talking kickers guessing won’t get to many signings in UDFAs yet
We’ve got 12 open roster spots now?
10 with the 2 UDFA. Tough roster to crack and Buffalo may be a tough sell for UDFA...
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9 minutes ago, phillyguy1 said:
I think as far as team building, this shows that they really value Mcdermott's ability to evaluate talent to fit his defense. That's why they are a little more willing to invest value in offense.
I think the other thing we need to realize is the plan was never to build up a Super Bowl contender overnight like the Rams did. I’ve posted about this before but it’s an unsustainable model... Beane has been very clear about wanting to have sustained success. It’s always supposed to have been a slow burn.
We could’ve opted for the approach... but we would’ve had a 2 year window to be competitive and then we’d be in salary cap h*ll.
Think Green Bay Packers or Pittsburgh Steelers... not Los Angeles Rams.
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6 minutes ago, MJS said:
Wow, that was an insightful analysis. Nice job. It would be interesting to look at their trades as well. They've traded for Kelvin Benjamin and Stefon Diggs now. Both were significant trades aimed at bolstering the offense. Let's hope the Diggs trade turns out better.
I did in depth analysis of the trades and where the picks have gone last night when I was writing this main post up!
I can post when I’m near my computer. It shows what picks we acquired and subsequently traded away... also shows the result of who the other team drafted.
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I've seen a lot of debate about how McBeane favor spending resources on defense rather than offense. It piqued my curiosity so I decided to do a little study.
I went back through our drafts in two different ways - Beane only (2018 and beyond) and McBeane (2017 and beyond) because there are typically arguments that McDermott conducted the first draft in 2017 and therefore Beane can't be credited with the results. Which is more than fair, but I wanted to account for both his arrival as well as the arrival of the brain trust known as McBeane.
This first chart here represents all of our draft picks under McDermott (2017) and Beane (2018 and beyond). It includes both Epenesa and Moss. The players highlighted in yellow are those that are no longer with the Bills organization.
This image here is a breakdown of how we've spent our draft picks. One accounts for all picks from 2017 - 2020 (McBeane) and another solely Beane's decisions. As you can see, in both instances we have made an equal number of picks offensively and defensively. Which I found to be interesting, but also misleading, as the majority of late round draft picks don't make a roster, let alone a significant impact. Why should Austin Proehl work in favor of the argument that McBeane have spent enough resources towards improving the offense? He really shouldn't. I made the determination that we should filter it based on how we spend our draft capital in the first three rounds, marked in both 'BEANE DRAFT' and 'MCDERMOTT + BEANE' as 'OFFENSE(1-3)' and 'DEFENSE(1-3)'.
As you can see, in both instances the Bills have actually invested more draft capital into offensive selections in Rounds 1-3 rather than defensive selections. I found this quite interesting, but I know there will be arguments that we've used draft capital to trade up for specific players, so it's not an accurate depiction of what we've actually invested in offense and defense via the draft. So I went back through all of our trades that we used draft picks to MOVE UP in the draft to acquire a player of interest.
We used a 2nd (44) and 3rd (91) to move up in order to draft Zay Jones (WR) in the 2nd (37) in 2017.
We used a 3rd (75), 5th (149) and 5th (156) in order to draft Dion Dawkins (OT) in the 2nd (63) in 2017.
We used a 1st (22) and 3rd (65) in order to draft Tremaine Edmunds (LB) in the 1st (16) in 2018.
We used a 1st (12), 2nd (53) and 2nd (56) in order to draft Josh Allen (QB) in the 1st (7) in 2018.
We used a 4th (112) and 4th (131) in order to draft Dawson Knox (TE) in the 3rd (96) in 2019.
We used a 2nd (40) and 5th (158) in order to draft Cody Ford (OT) in the 2nd (38) in 2019.
McBeane has spent 12 additional picks (1st (12), 2nd (53), 2nd (56), 2nd (44), 2nd (40), 3rd (91), 3rd (75),4th (112), 4th (131), 5th (149), 5th (156), 5th (158) ) to trade up for an offensive (7 extra picks in Rounds 1-3) as opposed to only 2 additional picks to move up for a defensive player (1st (22) and 3rd (65)).
A lot of draft capital invested into improving the offense since they've come to Buffalo.
Overall for those keeping score at home:
Offense: 14 picks in rounds 1-3
Defense: 7 picks in rounds 1-3
Free agency also tends to be a big argument... we spend all of our money on defense. The breakdown is done in a similar format to the draft breakdown, one for just Beane and one for McDermott + Beane.
The image above shows all signings that the players received more than $1M AAV (This is right in line with the median NFL salary in 2019). Offense wins again... but I don't want to use crappy offensive depth signings to bolster one side of the argument... so I decided to filter all of the signings by players that received an AVV greater than $3M... I felt this was a more significant investment in a player, one that REALLY shows where the money is going and takes depth signings completely out of the equation.
Here we see for the first time defense outweigh offense. Under Beane's guidance it's only by 1 signing and McDermott + Beane accounts for Hyde and Poyer in 2017, bringing the total to 12.
I'm going to include the figures here in terms of total money spent on each side of the ball since 2017 to paint a more complete picture (this is only for the players with an AVV greater than $3M). I can't include another attachment because I am over my size limit... so I will explain. For the 12 defenders that McBeane have signed since 2017, they have spent $214,550,000 in total money on those players. On the 9 offensive players that they have signed they have spent $168,100,000 on those players. Clearly they've spent more total money on the defense as compared to the offense... but they've signed 3 more defenders... so I thought it was best to find the average $/Player on both offense and defense.
Offense:
Defense:
You can make the argument that they have struggled to build an offense, in a timely manner, especially in comparison to their defense. But I think the narrative needs to die that McBeane heavily favors defense when it comes to FA and the draft, they simply DO NOT!
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6 minutes ago, MJS said:
I think you're wrong. Almost every mock had him going in the 3rd, often higher than where he actually went. So why is your analysis more accurate than the "experts" and the actual GM who gets paid millions to do it, a GM that has been pretty successful to this point?
To echo this, these guys do so much prep for the draft. Including mock drafts within the organization, examine what needs other organizations have through film, reach out to get a feel for what other teams are looking to do. This isn't a fantasy football draft where you just nab the guy that Yahoo says is ranked the highest. There is some strategy to it...
So if Beane is saying he was trying to trade UP in the 3rd round for fear of Moss being taken before 86... I'm going to guess that he would not have lasted to our next pick in the 4th. Media Mock Drafts and rankings are NOT NFL organizations Mock Drafts and rankings... and I'm definitely not trusting the intuition or insight of guys on a message board that "know football" because they played in HS, watch ESPN and read CBS Sports mock drafts.
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10 minutes ago, WorstTEever81 said:
So we should sign Taiwan Jones!!! Right?! Al Davis agrees with you!
unless I misinterpreted what you said
We did sign Taiwan Jones... lol
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4 hours ago, BobChalmers said:
ZERO safeties were taken in round 1. Dugger will be there in the third.
So because zero safeties were taken in round 1, that’s means there’s no chance that there is a run on safeties in round 2? or it means that safeties will continue to fall in round 2 and eventually just the entire draft? You’re right... it’s a trend!
Make sense.
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1 minute ago, buffaloboyinATL said:
No way we would move up for him though, right?
I don’t think we do... at least not a significant move up. Maybe 3-4 picks to make sure we secure him?
Otherwise I see a move up early in the 3rd or late second from 86.
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21 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:
They know defense no doubt.
I don't think he'll be BPA when they pick nor does he play a premier position. He's a safety who's biggest contribution this season will most likely be special teams. No thanks.
Sorry. If it's between a top end rusher, WR, or even RB and Dugger im taking the former. Without question.
IMO he plays a premier position in McDermott’a defense. Shaq Thompson played an extremely important role... it’s all relative.
I don’t think an EDGE or WR (maybe in 4 WR sets?) we take 54 would be a clear cut starter for us either.
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3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:
Ew
I don’t understand why people are so opposed to him...
When it comes to defensive picks... I’ll defer to McBeane every time.
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It’s Kyle Dugger. Our pick is Kyle Dugger.
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38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
If that is true you should advise them to get out of the business. If you are in it for attention in particular. Absolutely atrocious motivation. Of course you are not passionate about every subject you write about. Not every story grips you - that is the same as any job. What should drive and motivate is the pursuit of truth regardless of the subject. Maybe the culture in America is different, I don't know. But that is not the way the majority of journalists in the UK think or work despite the low reputation of the profession.
Oh wow. This could actually be a really cool discussion about the difference between the UK and US when it comes to journalism!
I’d would honestly love additional insight... discussion... because I feel like there is a lot that doesn’t transfer over one way or another.
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1 hour ago, MJS said:
Being a journalist does not give you some special insight, in my opinion. You are just a liable to biases, misconceptions, and mistruths as everyone else. AND you have an agenda to be constantly telling a story even if there isn't one, because that's your job.
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
They often write a story because they’re required to... not because they’re passionate or knowledgeable on the subject. Then they move on and forget about it all.
I have journalists friends, I’ve dated journalists, I’ve dated people in news. They all admit it when they’re off the record. They care more about the attention they get than anything else.
I’m generalizing folks, not ALL journalists are like this... I’m speaking on the 20+ friends I have who are journalists, and their perception of the industry they work in.
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2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:
For the record, Levy made this insane "promise" to Clements and let him walk. It was just another chapter in the 1st round DB roller coaster. Apologists justify these stupid moves by saying that fill in the blank 1st round DB was "good." And they were, but they were stupid picks. The proof is in our W/L records. Is Tre "good?" Sure. He might even be great. Should they have drafted a qb? Yes, and I just don't care about who else passed them up! This is no excuse for idiocy and repeating the same stupid mistakes! I can't understand why this doesn't jump out at you.
Again, this regime looks good. Personally, I like Beane more than McDermott, although I'm not sure how much I like this latest trade of our #1. It might turn out to be a GREAT trade but I'm just a bit skeptical, and tell me; why shouldn't I be? There are just so many great receivers in this draft, wouldn't you say?
Peace, and GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Again.... Point being... Levy’s promise has nothing to do with the decision making process of McBeane. Why doesn’t that jump out to you?
We can debate the Diggs trade sure... the great receivers in this draft are going between 8-15. We would’ve needed to move up to secure a Jeudy, Ruggs, Lamb (otherwise people like you would be calling for their heads) and it would’ve cost us something realistically close to what we gave up for Diggs. I’ll take the known quantity... now that our QB is in year 3. Diggs has a cost-controlled contract that undoubtedly provides surplus value when weighted against his production. Was the price a little steep? Sure. I won’t disagree but Diggs came with a long term contract and proven production. His style of play meshes well with Allen...
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56 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:
Wow. Just wow. Can you ever recall a dumb move that the Bills made?
You are lucky and I am not joking. I am sure that I would be a happier person if I was a blind, one way of thinking optimist.
You’re missing the the point of my entire argument.
The Buffalo Bills have undoubtedly made dumb moves, highlighted by the fact they went 20 years without being in the playoffs. That concept isn’t up for debate.
Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THAT. Just because they work for the Bills now, does not mean that when they sign their contract on the dotted line they are hereby required to think and act and make moves akin to regimes of the past.
AND YES. You can pull up dumb moves that they’re made, I’m sure of it. What fans don’t understand is that there are micro and macro “bad moves”. A micro bad move would be $1M depth signing that we hand out to compete for the backend of the roster... it’s not even a bad move... there are only so many spots. A REAL micro bad move would be trading back in the first because you don’t have enough trusted information to take a QB in your first year and you end up with an All-Pro corner and an extra 1st rounder you use to take your franchise QB the following year after making the playoffs in your first season with a roster expected to win 4 games.
A macro bad move is drafting Zay Jones or trading a 3rd for Kelvin Benjamin. Those are things to be upset about... they flat out didn’t have anything positive come from them... but people here can’t differentiate. Just like they can’t recognize that because Tom Donahoe let Nate Clements walk doesn’t mean that Brandon Beane is going to let Tre White walk.
This all started because you tried to compare their potential actions with Tre White to the losses of Nate Clements, Antoine Winfield and whoever else... guess what... it doesn’t matter what happened with those guys because McDermott/Beane were not pulling the strings then. It’s the simple - there is no pattern, the people making the decisions are different. The team may be the same, but the people are not.
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6 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:
It does, and is clearly superior. My thing is that we desperately needed a QB. It could have been Mahomes or Watson (who was a champion). And, many teams that passed on these 2 already had a qb in place.
Blame who you will but imo this is not something to just write off and excuse. It was a continuation of idiocy. I don't see why this should be so hard to accept. Hopefully things will change but this was just another prime example (however temporary) of stupid moves by the Bills front office.
Yes, Deshaun Watson was a College Football National Champion. You know what other quarterbacks were...? Matt Leinert (2004), Vince Young (2005), Matt Flynn (2007), AJ McCarron (2011), Cardale Jones (2015). Real top notch crew... all played for Buffalo at one point!
The Browns, Bears (who took a QB other than Mahomes/Watson), Jaguars, Titans, Jets all needed a QB. That’s 5 teams that passed on those guys and 1 that not only chose a different QB but traded from pick #3 to pick #2 that night to ensure that they got a QB other than Mahomes/Watson.
It can’t be a continuation of idiocy when the current regime, in its entirety wasn’t in place. I’m pretty sure we have 0 members of Football Operations from the draft and they were all let go when Beane came in... which was after the draft. You don’t let a lame duck GM make a franchise altering decision... McDermott had to operate off the information that Whaley’s scouts produced... not his scouts, not Beane’s scouts.
Also, saying we desperately needed a QB is a stretch. Tyrod was a consistent albeit unspectacular QB that was at the helm when we broke the drought... that another team valued enough to give us a 3rd round pick when it was obvious we would cut him AND the San Diego Chargers are going to start this year.
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On 4/16/2020 at 6:09 PM, Bill from NYC said:
We are Bills Fans. Long time Bills Fans. The history of the Bills is our reference. Many of the same stupid mistakes have been made time and again. We drafted Tre White in lieu of Mahomes and Watson. Who would you like to blame for this? Marv Levy?
Some of us who have been long time fans need to see a real difference. We need to see an escape from the years of dumb decisions. It looks better now but there is still much to prove, wouldn't you say?
If this leadership group doesn’t strike you as drastically different than everyone since Polian... I’m not sure what to tell you.
The Mahomes and Watson debate is tired and old. Trubsisky was the #1 QB taken that year. 9 teams passed on Mahomes and 11 passed on Watson. There was no consensus on who was the best of the bunch...
McDermott was without his GM... it would be a move of “Bills Old” to let the GM and his staff very clearly on their way out (Doug Whaley) to draft the most important position on the field.
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Bears decline 5th year option on Trubisky
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I would disagree that Beane didn’t emerge as a strategist until the end of 2018.
He didn’t just randomly become one overnight... he’s always been one. When he got to Buffalo he began to make immediate strides towards the plan that we seeing come to fruition today.