SoTier
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Posts posted by SoTier
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5 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:
I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that if you look deeper you’d find that some of these ‘busts’ were due to poor, or constantly changing, coaching and/or a lack of players around them. I find it hard to believe that a college QB could be this closely scrutinized and suddenly turn into garbage. I’m of the mindset to see the Bills draft a guy with the size and resume against top competition from a major conference. He may not turn into John Elway but he’s not going to suck.
Sorry, but it doesn't matter how "deep" you go, teams miss on QBs more frequently than other top ten positions, probably because the position requires much more in the way of intangibles than most other positions, and the guys who may have the physical ability don't necessarily have the intangibles like being able to read Ds, having good reaction time, and/or making good decisions (JP Losman) while the opposite is also common (Ryan Fitzpatrick).
4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:My point is we don't want serviceable. Tyrod was serviceable. We want the second coming of Jim Kelly. Really we want the second coming of Tom Brady! Anything less will mean we are still looking.
Well, "we" don't always get what we want. Getting a serviceable QB with the Bills drafting at 21 is realistically about the best the Bills can expect. The best QBs to come out of the bottom of the first round since 2000 are Chad Pennington (2001), Aaron Rodgers (2005), Joe Flacco (2018), and Teddy Bridgewater (2014). All the others drafted after pick #16 sucked.
Trading up into the top ten doesn't guarantee a team drafting the next Jim Kelly either. In the last 10 years, the first ten picks have yielded these busts or just serviceable QBs: Mark Sanchez (2009), Jake Locker (2011), Blaine Gabbert (2011), Robert Griffin III (2012), Ryan Tannehill (2012), Blake Bortles (2014).
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It's not a "chicken or egg" scenario. A team should always have an eye out for promising OLers in the draft, but excellent players at all the OL positions can frequently be found outside of the first round ... and even as UDFAs as Jason Peters has shown.
Besides, the Bills OL is not nearly as bad as it has been in the past nor as bad as it looked in 2017 (despite PFF's statistical claims to the contrary). Improved play designs and blocking schemes that better suit the current OLers' talents better is likely to make the OL better. Miller had a horrible year last year, but as a young OLer, he might rebound as he was decent in 2016. If Glenn can get healthy and the Bills keep him, then they can move Dawkins over to RT to replace Mills. With Incognito at LG, all they'll need is solid center, which might be Groy. The Bills would then need to add youth and depth on the OL, but they could fill that with Day 2 or 3. The Bills OL isn't a great OL, but it was serviceable in both 2015 and 2016 with most of the same players.
Quality QBs, OTOH, aren't often found outside of the top ten of the first round, seldom found in the bottom half of the first round, and rarely found outside of the first round. Currently, there are a handful of non-first rounders as legitimate starters in the NFL: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins, Case Keenum, Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, and Jimmy Garoppolo. Of those, the first three are great QBs. Dalton and Cousins are good ones. The others have shown promise but need to either improve their play or prove that their short-term success is sustainable.
So, when a team has or acquires a high first round pick and they don't have Aaron Rodgers or Matt Ryan under center, then they should seriously look at the QBs available in the draft. That doesn't mean that they have to draft one because as 2013 proved, sometimes all the QBs available are duds or the one you want is gone as in 2004. They have to be open to taking one if they think that one of the kids available can be the next Aaron Rodgers or Matt Ryan, however, even if they have an Andy Dalton under center (which is why I would be uncomfortable in signing Cousins -- his contract will preclude the Bills from drafting a younger prospect for most of the length of his contract).
One thing the Bills cannot do is draft a first round QB just to appease the fan base which is what I think they did in both 2004 and 2013. Drafting the wrong guy is much more costly than passing on a good one because teams commit to that first rounder for 3-5 years. If you think not, consider that they could have drafted Aaron Rodgers if they hadn't traded up for JP Losman the year before.
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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Well, I'll be durned, you're right. But this article has some interesting points about the "herd mentality":
The rumor probably didn't have one traceable source. It was just speculation that took on its own life. But Demoff doesn't remember it as a conspiracy that doomed Marino to fall to 27th in the draft.
"People started finding reasons to not like Marino, and I think that the drug rumors were just another thing that they threw on the pile," he said.
Once a few teams passed on Marino at the start of the NFL draft, a herd mentality kicked in.
"This happens in a lot of drafts," Didinger said. "Once a guy starts falling, everybody runs the other way. Everyone assumes everyone else knows something, and they back away."
(the article also points out that Marino had kind of a miserable Senior season)I think that something similar happened to Aaron Rodgers as well. He was supposed to be the #1 pick, but I believe that there were vague rumors floating about him, too, and that sank his draft stock.
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1 hour ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:
...nice assessment.....objective, honest and accurate.....
....the kid was a 5th round pick....a damn FIFTH ROUNDER!.......what the hell is the LOGICAL expectation of a 5th?.....early on, the kid has shown some promise with the mental aspect of the game, a trait required for success with the speed and complexity of the game at the NFL level.....but of course the TBD "One & Done Gang" saw enough with his extensive body of work ala minis, OTA's, TC, scant pre-season work, a disastrous start as well as some mop up duty to earn the BUST label...my day care teacher said the SAME thing....with this gang rolling out the pigeon stained WELCOME MAT, I'd bet Rudolph can't wait to get here.....if these clowns are my judge and jury, I'd stay in school for THREE PhD degrees.....WTF?....
The "logical expectation" for a fifth round QB is a possible backup. Plain and simple. Peterman fell to the fifth round because he doesn't have a good enough arm to be a quality NFL starter. He doesn't appear to have the "football intelligence", especially good judgement, that was supposed to make him an adequate NFL backup, either. Now, maybe part of his poor showing in 2017 can be laid at the feet of the Bills coaching staff who didn't prepare him well, but Peterman failed when given the opportunity, however brief. If the Bills draft a QB in 2018, my guess is that Peterman is history.
29 minutes ago, H2o said:I am not blaspheming sir Andy by any means
I am saying that I believe Andy Dalton type is Rudolph's ceiling. That's the best I could see him being. My expectation for Rudolph is that he's not going to end up being that good.
Dalton is better than 3 of the 4 QBs taken ahead of him (Griffin, Gabbert, and Ponder). With the right support around him, he can do pretty well ... and for a second round pick, Cinci didn't pay too much for him. If the Bills took Rudolph at 21 or 22 and got as good a QB as Dalton, that wouldn't be terrible ... unless they passed on the next Drew Brees or Russell Wilson.
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On 2/16/2018 at 5:17 AM, Chemical said:
Oh NOW you want to get specific instead of basically saying you'll settle for a lesser rated quarterback? I get what you're saying; you don't want to spend the draft capital to move up that high. The most likely outcome of that is the Jets get a better QB and we play him twice a year for the next 15
Now??? My complaint about all of you "we have to draft a QB in the first round" advocates is exactly because NONE of you talk in specifics! You just want a QB in the first round, and who that is doesn't matter to you. IMO, none of the QBs mentioned as top prospects are good enough to warrant even thinking of trading up more than a few spots ... say, from 21 to 16, and even then, if I was going to consider doing it, it would only be for Mayfield.
On 2/16/2018 at 5:29 AM, GunnerBill said:Mariota is actually 20-22 in his 3 years. He missed some time year 2 with a broken leg.
Famous Jameis is actually 18-27.
Tampa in the 3 years before Winston: 13-35
Tennessee in the 3 years before Mariota: 15-33
Both have improved their team without question. Now have they been "good enough" that if you had paid a huge price to get up you'd be delighted? No. But they have had Mike Mularkey and Dirk Koetter as their Head Coaches. It's hardly been vintage. I still think both have a chance to be very good long term QBs.
IMO, both Winston and Mariota seem likely to become "coach killers" -- just good enough to keep coaches hopeful but not quite good enough to consistently win with ... much like Cutler and Tannehill.
On 2/16/2018 at 8:32 AM, RochesterRob said:I think that your question is a very fair one despite the hysteria of those who seek to suppress it. There is no getting around the random nature of how well a college player will do in the pro's.
Drafting QBs has become even more random because so many college teams don't run pro style offenses and therefore scouts don't see collegiate signal callers practicing the skills that pro QBs need to have. I think this is the reason that we've seen a few more QBs succeed from lower rounds ... scouts were skeptical of their skill sets because they didn't see them demonstrate those skills all that much.
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18 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:
....anything to read into McBeane personally scouting him twice, first at the WVU game and then his bowl game?.......or is it protocol for the top guy to personally do the scouting as part of a "smoke screen"?.....what do you think?...........
Was Beane scouting Rudolph or somebody else? There are probably other players on the two teams that have NFL potential.
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1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:
Three hall of famers and three meh QBs. That's the part no one discusses while debating who to draft. Of the six or so names thrown around for 2018, which are going to have totally forgettable careers?
The general assumption of the "DRAFT A QB IN THE FIRST ROUND" crowd is that doing so will result in a franchise QB on a par with Kelly despite the reality that in both 2004 and 2013 that didn't happen.
58 minutes ago, Virgil said:Is anyone out there saying that evaluating and drafting QB’s is a no-lose deal?
I’m not 100% sold on any of these guys. I think Rosen and Mayfield have the best chance, but they could all be busts.
I agree. What's most troubling is that all of the tops QBs have serious flaws to the point that there's no consensus #1. In both 1983 and 2004, Elway and E Manning were considered the consensus #1 picks in long before February. It's the consensus #1 picks who are the most likely to be successful by a huge margin: hitting about 80% success since 2000 whereas pick through 2-16 are about 50% and 17-32 only around 20%.
56 minutes ago, KelsaysLunchbox said:If I had to guess...I'm going to say this draft will end up looking more like 2011 with Cam followed by Locker/Gabbert/Ponder
That's usually what happens in most drafts: 1 good/great QB (usually the guy who goes #1) and any other first rounders being busts. Occasionally a couple of QBs come out of the first round. When that happens, it's usually like 2005 (Smith & Rodgers), 2008 (Ryan & Flacco) or 2012 (Luck & Tannehill) -- one great one and one okay one.
What's interesting about 2011 and 2012 is that good/great QBs came out of rounds after the first, which rarely happens: Dalton in 2011 and Wilson and Cousins in 2012. 2014 might be another year with both Carr and Garoppolo from the 2nd, but Carr struggled in 2017 and Garoppolo has made all of 7 starts, it's early yet to judge their careers.
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9 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:
What was the % of deep routes verses quick slants or 5 to 10 yard outs?
Should they have played more to his strengths? I do recall a game or 2 where he was rock solid and caught just about everything thrown at him. (yes, there were 2 or 3 of those games)
People keep saying play to TT's strengths ... so it should be the same so
Dennison seemed determined to force square pegs into round holes with the entire offense. He forced the OL into a blocking scheme that didn't seem to fit their talents from the get-go; the OL could never consistently do a decent job of either run or pass blocking all year. Compare the offense he pushed on Taylor to what the Houston OC did when DeShon Watson got the call (created and implemented plays that fit Watson's skill set). Even in TC, it was obvious that the OL and the QB were struggling with Dennison's system.
Letting Goodwin and Woods go and trading Watkins while replacing them with the WRs they did probably doomed Jones' rookie campaign, too. I will give Dennison a pass on not using Jones correctly (ie, slot receiver) because I don't think he had that much input into the total dismantling of the WR corps. IMO, on any team with a NFL caliber WR corps, Jones wouldn't have been a starter except for injury or late in the season. It was too much pressure to put on a rookie from a smaller program, especially when he was forced to play a position that he really didn't "fit".
Hopefully, the Bills put Jones in a better position to succeed this season, and that he takes advantage of his second chance.
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2 hours ago, White Linen said:
This is one of the major reasons to not like Taylor as your teams QB. He's a development killer.
I suppose Taylor caused global warming, too.
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1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said:
I remember a train ride in Attica when a was a wee lad..anybody else remember that train or am i nuts?
It was likely the Arcade & Attica Railroad, a steam locomotive ride out to Curriers, which at one time was probably a little town, but now isn't much but a few houses at an intersection. I think it's still in business, probably running from May through October. The train depot is in downtown Attica just before the split in Routes 39 and 98 split.
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35 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:
As history has proven you might as well draw straws in evaluating rookie quarterbacks. The Bills should sit tight and draft whoever is there are 21/22. It's actually a lucky break that there are so many QBs rated this high this year. You have to know when you're sitting on a winning hand.
Yeah, that's what we thought in 2004, too.
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10 hours ago, N.Y. Orangeman said:
The logic of this continues to escape me, as we've done this exact same thing for 20+ years. Sure, let's reload on our 7-9 or 9-7 roster in order to stay at 7-9 or 9-7. The good organizations reload and/or rebuild around a QB and fill in with lower round finds.
Actually that NOT what the Bills have done for 20+ years. They NEVER "reloaded" but rather shuffled deck chairs on the Titanic by continuously drafting RBs, DBs, and WRs to replace the good ones they let walk away. They were more interested in eeking out the last $ of profit on the bottom line than in winning football games. That's why they had a 17 year playoff drought, not because they didn't draft QBs in the first round, because, of course, they traded a first round pick for a franchise QB in 2002 and then drafted 2 first rounders.
They did EXACTLY what you want (trade up) in 2004 to take JP Losman. They also selected EJ Manuel in the first round in 2013. Both busted. Trading up for Losman cost them a shot at Aaron Rodgers the next year. Taking Manuel precluded them taking Bridgewater in 2014 because when a team drafts a first round QB, they're generally committed to him for 4 years unless he's an outright bust like Manziel.
No player in the draft comes with a guarantee, and that's especially true of QBs.
7 hours ago, Bills365 said:it is odd that we would pass on Watson and mahomes considering they were both on the board and then only try to trade the pick we received for the trade and a boatload of others to try to move up for another unproven? we need a qb of the future and its been long overdue for over a decade I just don't get why we didn't take are shot last year.
It's not odd at all. My guess is that they didn't think they were going to make NFL QBs. Taking a QB in the first round just to placate fans gets you JP Losman and EJ Manuel. Losman might have been around in the 2nd, and if he wasn't no great loss. The Bills would have been much better off using the 2nd rounder they traded to Dallas on Matt Schaub, who was a decent starter for several years in Houston. Since none of the QBs in 2013 were worth crap, passing on Manuel would have been a positive thing.
20 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:Yes, more than us agreeing I believe Beane and McDermott are not gambling anything more than our 2-1st's on a QB.
Our 2 #1's get us to about 10.
Tampa had Winston #1 overall. His 3 year combined record is 20-28.
Titans with Mariota is 21-27. I would also argue that the Titans 9-7 record would be less if the Colts and Texans had a QB for the year.
Colts with Luck at QB probably would not of loss 2 games to the Titans.
I say this only to point out that the best 2 QBs in the 2015 draft has not helped their teams turn around into some perennial winner.
The draft is a gamble and I don't think OBD is going to go "all in".
Too many Bills fans forget that the draft is a gamble. They've convinced themselves that all the Bills problems stem from not drafting first round QBs when in reality not drafting the right first round QB was simply a symptom of the numerous problems that beset this franchise over the last two decades of Ralph Wilson's ownership and into the first years of the Pegulas' ownership. I'm much more hopeful that the new regime is committed to winning than I was even at this time last year. I don't think that McDermott will take a QB that he doesn't like just to take one. He wants to win too much, and I think he's the one who has control of the personnel.
19 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:Yes, that's exactly what I'm suggesting. If the Rookie is ready in a year or two, (like the Chiefs think with Mahomes) you unload Cousins on the next team that's in need in 2020. If the Rookie isn't ready, no harm done. If Cousins turns out to be the real deal....then it doesn't matter that the Rookie is sitting there, and you probably have an opportunity to trade him.
If the Bills sign Cousins, there will be no rookie first round QB in 2018 because he's the guy who will be their franchise guy going forward for 4 or 5 years or whatever.
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1 hour ago, D521646 said:
I think, without reservation, that this might be the best QB draft class since 2004. We may well see at least 5 QB's taken in the first round, maybe more?
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Don't confuse a QB class having a bunch of first round prospects with it being a "good class". A good QB class produces good NFL QBs, which in the case of 2004, is likely to be 2 or 3 HOFers from the four first round QBs. People were claiming that 2011 and 2012 were great QB classes, too, but only 3 of the 8 QBs taken in the first rounds of those drafts succeeded.
If both Goff and Wentz are successful, then 2016 will be a very successful QB class even though only 3 QBs were taken in the first round.
2 hours ago, billsfan11 said:Don't remind me lol. Eli, Rivers, Ben get drafted and then the Bills get JP Losman:(
And they traded up for him ... so in 2005, they had no first rounder when Aaron Rodgers was sitting there at #18 when Dallas drafted in the Bills' place.
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15 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
I dont see it as ironic at all. The NFL is full of great coaches, great GM's, great FO people throughout its history who also played football and were not a very good or successful player themselves, heck many never even made the pros.
At the same time, plenty of great players are terrible at the evaluation of prospects. One of the absolute worst GM in sports history is Michael Jordan, who is also widely viewed as the single greatest player to ever play his sport.
Being a good or bad player doesn't mean you are good or bad at evaluating others.
I think this is true because players with modest talent have to learn the game -- from positional techniques to strategy -- in much more depth than do very talented players just to have any kind of shot. Really talented players rely on their talent without thinking about how or why they're doing something; it's often instinctual for them.
I don't think it's particularly surprising that few if any really great NFL QBs have become good NFL coaches whereas some really good coaches have been career backups.
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25 minutes ago, Lurker said:
Are you referring to the woman or her neighbors? Sounds like both parties would be difficult to live next to...
Exactly this. This seems to me to be a case of both being in the wrong but only one doing something actually illegal (and very dangerous). I will add that this is exactly why you don't bring a gun to a confrontation. This was not a gang of menacing -looking toughs on the woman's front lawn that she tried to scare away with a shot over their heads (my late stepmother did exactly that once). This was an angry woman losing her temper and firing at people who she could have killed. Guns and arguments do not mix well.
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2 hours ago, Acantha said:
Most land in the "boonies" still have to follow county ordinances (which often include quiet hours). If it's not in the county rules, there are no covenants on the land and no HoA's, it pretty much is their right to do so. Also within the neighbors right to retaliate in kind.
Well, some angry neighbors only get the "right to retaliate" part ... like the lady in the original story.
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1 minute ago, Boyst62 said:
The truth in your itty bitty brain is God damn backwards
You're a piece of **** looking to jump right in and make a political statement because your scrotal size is likely similar to your intellectual size - pea brain.
You are truly a classless little pea-on to make a statement like this when the situation is on going.
Not to mention a complete and dire asshat for not taking your pea sack and going to PPP where he topic you bring up is covered.
Take your complaints to the NRA and the jackass politicians who will undoubtedly do EXACTLY what I predicted as soon as somebody sticks a microphone in their faces. Just watch them.
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33 minutes ago, Boyst62 said:
!@#$ off
Eat Richard
The truth hurts. Deal with it, sunshine.
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3 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said:
Yeah...........there's politics forum in which you're more than welcome to share your thoughts on that issue.
I'm just stating what we all know will happen in the next 48 hours.
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The NRA and its political puppets in Congress and state governments will undoubtedly show up in the media to remind us that this wouldn't have happened "If only all the teachers and students were armed with automatics ..."
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4 minutes ago, CritMark said:
Tell me they know with 100% certainty that Wentz will be ready to go when the season starts and I would up the odds to 10% he will be traded this off season. Tell me they have a plan for a backup should Wentz go down again that they feel as comfortable with as Foles and I would up the odds to 10%. Tell me they have both and I would be willing to concede the odds are 20%. But I don't see it happening. He is cheap insurance and if Wentz is good to go, Foles will not have the opportunity to play poorly and diminish his value.
I would expect him to be traded somewhere around week 10 if Wentz is going strong.
Philly is NEVER going to find a backup for Wentz as competent as Foles for as little as they're paying him in 2018. Hell, they aren't going to find any backup for Wentz as competent as Foles. If they trade Foles at all (and I'm not sure that they will), it will be late, maybe just before the trading deadline. However, Foles seems to be a more complicated individual than most NFL players, so he might not even chase big $$ as a FA. He was willing to walk away when he wasn't happy, so who knows?
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I don't know if it's their counterclaim, but lots of people who move out to the country or have camps in rural areas think just that ... it's their land so they believe that they can do whatever they want, especially in areas where there are few zoning laws or noise ordinances. Asshats aren't found only in cities or suburbs. Neighbors having large, loud parties with loud music blasting well into the early am; people riding dirt bikes and atvs close to neighbors' houses for hours on end; and hunters "sighting in" shotguns and rifles early on Sunday mornings or target shooting for hours are among the most frequent complaints fielded by LEOs in rural areas.
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Moving out to the boondocks doesn't give people the right to annoy their neighbors, either, although a lot of that type think it does.
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37 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
No active NHL players are in the Olympics this time around, and that's probably going to hurt both the US and Canadian hockey teams much more than the European teams because a lot of their homegrown talent plays in various European professional leagues. The 2018 US team is made up of some college kids, some ex-NHLers, and some players not good enough to make the NHL (not sure if NHL farm team players are among them). Winning a medal will be a major accomplishment for this team.
One US team that did win yesterday was the US men's curling team. They beat Korea handily in their first round robin game. Oh, yeah, and Canada beat the Swiss pair to take the first ever gold medal in mixed doubles curling while the OAR (Olympic Athletes from Russia) won the bronze over Norway. Since I watched both the medal mixed double curling matches and then stayed up until 2:30AM watching the US/Korea match, I'm "curled out" this morning!
Brian Daboll is the key to who we draft IMO
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
This. It's NOT the system that makes the QB. If you draft the right QB, he'll likely outlast the current coaching staff and maybe even the GM.