Mat68
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Posts posted by Mat68
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23 hours ago, Rebel101 said:
This article is good but basically leaves it up to the OC...he will have to teach AJM and allen 2 different offenses because AJM could thrive in a WCO and this article suggests Allen should not even attempt it. So that is clearly something our OC will have to figure out. Great post tho
I dont agree. You have a play you have a designed primary. Allen plays differant than Mccarron. McCarron will have to follow closer to play design. Allen is going to look long than short. Same play same coverage, you will probably get 2 seperate outcomes. Allen can put the ball in places Mccarron and Peterman can not.
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No. Encourage the self investment and utilize your own coaches. Teach him the offense, situationaly when you want him to reign himself in, and give him some drill to learn the footwork. With the limited feild work allowed in the CBA have him continue the self evaluation.
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59 minutes ago, jr1 said:
Rosen was impressive in the Cowherd interview though
Gotta take that with a grain of salt. They are neighbors and with the bad press Colin was trying to give him a solid. He wouldnt have treated Mayfield like that.
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I see Farve. Maybe not the most cerebrial but hes gonna sling the rock and make big time throws.
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College stats have never correlated to NFL success at Qb. Really there are 2 things, natural ability and drive. No one knows how hard a 20 something will work when they can have anything they want. Analytics got Clevelands lasy regime fired. They out thought themselves with Wentz.
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3 hours ago, Fadingpain said:
I just started a thread on this topic; listen to Eric Galko from yesterday on WGR-550. Maybe that was what you were thinking of.
For example, since 1999, no college QB with fewer than 30 starts and a completion % in college below 60% has ever amounted to jack at the NFL level.
Allen had 27 starts. Completion percentage was 56.2% for his career.
There are mathematical models for predicting college QB success in the NFL. The people who actually study that stuff/compute that stuff/know of that stuff almost universally do not think Allen will amount to anything in the NFL.
The people who are prone to ignoring it are the people who are ignorant of it to begin with, or place little value in it, i.e., ex football players.Allen COULD be a success, of course, but the data/historical record predicts he will not be successful.
He's an unbelievably high risk/reward pick.
6th rounder and one of the greatest statistical anomalies in sports history.
You basing your draft strategy off crazy 1 in 10 million lighting strikes? Let me know how that works out for you.
Much smarter, more predictable, and more reliable to go where the data leads you.
The problem is their are outliers. Guys with crazy arm talent breaks alot of those constructs. Stafford, Cutler, Newton, Marino, and Farve are all guys with crazy natural abilities who all fall out of those peremiters. Completion % is one aspect of the overall analytic analysis. Allen falls to Farve and Marino in thats aspect. Now here is where party lines form. You cant compare a player in 2018 to a player in 1992 and 83. Allen is closer to those players in college systems, supporting casts, and development.
If you want to dive deep into the analytics. Allen was one of the best prospect when throwing from a clean pocket. He also saw the least amounts of them. Production wise, Allen had the highest percent of air yardage. Over 60% of his yards were through the air. In comparison mayfield was 39%.
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On 4/30/2018 at 4:51 PM, JimKellyTryouts said:
We all just have no idea how he fell so far
Not overly athletic, a tweaner(too small for nose, not quick enough for 3 technique) and motor. A knock was he didnt chase down the field plays so looks poorly on film. The response to the motor is that he played nearly every defensive snap over 95%, so he had to be calculated with his energy. Mcdermott likes to maximize effort and energy of his dline so that wont be an issue here.
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I dont see how the draft could be poor. Only way is pre concieved bias. Regardless of ones personal opionions Allen was rated as 1 of the top 4 Qbs with a range of where he falls depending on preference. Buffalo had their pick of either Josh and went with Allen. Small town kid from Wyoming seems like a perfect fit in Buffalo. Based off of two trade ups its unlikley he is available at 12. The next largest need of the starting 22 was linebaker. They move from 22 to 16 and take the second or top rated linebaker in the draft. Many would consider Edmunds one of the Blue chip prospects in the entire draft. Coming off a playoff berth, in round 1 they fill their largest holes. Neither would be considered "reaches" both are considered to have the most potential than any other player at thier positions.
Going into day 3 and 4 the remaining needs are dl oline wr and secondary depth. Round 3 they got an immediate contributor to the interior dline. He would have started last year now he will rotate with Star and Kwilliams. Run defense was terrible at spots NYj, New Orleans. Johnson could become nickel, Tellar could become a starter at guard or dress on game day. Neal adds good depth to a thin saftey group. Wr was not totally addressed which is true. But the draft was weak at wr so I can understand if Buffalo took players they liked more and rated higher.
So the only spot not solidified was Wr, in a touted poor wr draft. The role needed is a deep threat. Ginn should be proof that a vetran with speed can fill that role. Based off what Buffalo needed and what they got I think the draft was an absolute win. Buffalo's top 3 picks are as good or better than any teams. Nit picking on day 3 is just that nit picking.
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7 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:
I don't agree. Allen has precise throwing accuracy with his arm...when his feet are set and he has proper motion. He's proven that.
The issue is that he had such sloppy footwork at Wyoming that caused not-so-perfect throws. Not to mention his extreme gunslinger mentality that was never fully addressed for one reason or another.
Either (a) his coaches at Wyoming didn't care to correct his mechanics and decision-making because he made so many big plays regardless of them that the good outweighed the bad, (b) his coaches were too inept to properly teach him, or (c) they taught him but he either refused to or is incapable of learning.
I'm guessing it's not (c) because he seemed to make progress under Palmer in the pre-draft process - at least with regard to his footwork. I think the answer is mostly (a) - the only way to score touchdowns or make plays in that horrid offense with his struggling surrounding support was to force plays. Although I'm sure Allen deserved some blame as well.
Can this staff teach him how to manage a football game? We'll see.
He never going to become Brady. To me he will be very farvish. He is going to throw ints. Hes also going to make crazy plays. Imo you try to make him be more calculated. You dont want him to be something he is not but be mindful situations and what is needed to win.
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In college Aj Mccarron had vastly superior talent around him vs the team they played every game of his career. In college the better roster wins. Im interested to see how Allen does when he is not at a talent disadvantage.
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1 hour ago, MURPHD6 said:
They handed a 4-3 league leading defense over to a head coach who only runs a 3-4, and then fired that coach and replaced him with a 4-3 guy.
And they let the 4-3 guy (who has never developed a pro level qb) trade up for a project qb that a college OC who is known for running the ball will have to mold into an NFL success. Like all the interviews you want, and while I have nothing against Kim personally, it all starts at the top, and you can't convince me that a competitive search would not turn up a better candidate for the job.
This is where they madena mistake. They were sold on the guy and not aware of the vision. I can hear Rex say that his defense is multiple and he can get more out of an already good unit. They listened to Brandon and paid deerly for it. Since Mcdermott and Beane I think the plan was always for Kim to become the more controling intrest of the two and president of both makes sense. Timing is never perfect. So what bettet way to get out infront of a probably sexual harresment story than to replace the man with a female minority? The pegulas seem smart enough to let people they hire to do their jobs, but in the beginning were too ignorant of the profression to know who to empower and what to look for.
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Removing Cam's rookie year makes little sense. He was not expected to be a good pocket passer off thr start. Seems to have some revisionist history. The premise is correct to me. Everyone is going horizontal, run the ball and go vertical. Imo to help Allen they need to find a guy with deep speed and stress the offense. Maybe they think a healthy streater is that guy but im not sure.
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53 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:
First, are you suggesting that EJ does completely suck dangling donkey balls?
Second, are you sure you are not getting him confused with Tyrod?Couldn't disagree more, only b/c I do not believe Allen has any "potential" at all. That pick was terrible and that will be obvious as time rolls forward.
Ask EJ Manuel how that all works.
Football must be very enjoyable with all your optimism. They are nothing alike. Ej 5 star recruit. Couldnt get on the feild. Never reached his potential at any level. Allen 0 star recuit, went to junior college than wyoming. Instantly won the job. Made insane plays Ej never made.
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This would be the cheapest way to remove Brandon. I always assumed once Kim became more familar with the day to day aspect of the job she would take the position.
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16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
I did not expect this. Vegas thinks Allen is the most likely rookie QB to start 10+ games this year. These odds are begging people to take the under on Allen which is a sign they know something.
They know Aj McCarron and Nate Peterman are the other Qbs on the roster.
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My guess would be he made up the gay question.
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Just now, ganesh said:
But his own HC had zero confidence in him
Yes because he looked like a 21 year old at a bar playing darts for the first time.
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57 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:
Seems like because of the common coaching people think Wentz and Allen some how had comparable college careers.
Wentz stats:
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career North Dakota State 392 612 64.1 5115 8.4 8.8 45 14 153.9 2012 North Dakota State MVC FR QB 8 12 16 75.0 144 9.0 11.5 2 0 191.9 2013 North Dakota State MVC SO QB 11 22 30 73.3 209 7.0 7.6 1 0 142.9 2014 North Dakota State MVC JR QB 16 228 358 63.7 3111 8.7 8.8 25 10 154.1 2015 North Dakota State MVC SR QB 7 130 208 62.5 1651 7.9 8.7 17 4 152.3 Allen Stats:
Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate Career Wyoming 365 649 56.2 5066 7.8 7.7 44 21 137.7 2015 Wyoming MWC SO QB 2 4 6 66.7 51 8.5 8.5 0 0 138.1 *2016 Wyoming MWC SO QB 14 209 373 56.0 3203 8.6 8.3 28 15 144.9 *2017 Wyoming MWC JR QB 11 152 270 56.3 1812 6.7 6.9 16 6 127.8 In 15 less games Allen has 49 less yards 1 less Td.
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Marino and Farve both had under 60% completion. In 2016 Allen passed for well over 3,000 yards and had a higher passer rating than Rosen.
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With the drafting of Prohle, Ray Ray, to go with Kerley and Brandon Reilly I expect to see more involvement of the slot Wr in the offense. The out breaking routes Allen is deadly accurate. The option routes underneath will help credit easy throws.
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Just now, Buffalo716 said:
Corner routes are not short routes usually , typicality mid range. He does throw a great out route though which is exciting
Those are staple plays. Brady normally goes to the the underneath guys more often. The option route with a post or corner on the same side are common pass designs for NE. Imo Those will be deadly with Allen, but Allen will also take more risks down the field than Brady.
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I think all three are battling for a roster spot. If Streeter didnt break his toe im not sold Holmes makes the team last year. Miller fell out of favor same goes for Washington. Playing beside Phillips should allow Washigton to be a true 3 tech. The problem is Washington is a tweener who was more productive at De in college.
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1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:
I can’t see them drafting Allen and then playing some super conservative checkdown offense
that is the opposite of his game
his is not made for 14 play drives... but for quick hitters
Allen said it himself,,, “Favre says TDs first “
Idk. Allen is money on the out and corner routes. I think he will be very good at the seem route as well. Those passing concepts fit his ability. He is not going to be brady and kill the d with swing passes and checkdown he will push the ball down the field more.
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Out of Bodine or Groy whichever tis not the center is the LG imo. I think its Groy at Center Bodine at LG. Come TC I would not be surprised to see Richie show back up too.
ESPN Insider: Anonymous Execs weigh in on Bills picks and QBs
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by Mat68
Overall, a week later, the perception of the draft seems positive for the most part. Personal opionions aside, Buffalo filled some glarring holes on the roster. They very well could have 2 cornerstones of the franchise at two of the most important positions. Buffalo has depth at every position now and I will argue they are a more talented than the team that made the playoffs. I dont think Beane is done tinkering yet. They will bring in another outside wr who can get deep through FA or trade.