HoofHearted
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Posts posted by HoofHearted
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30 minutes ago, AlfaBill said:
This dude really knows his x and o’s. Football is so much more complex than it seems
I've said this before, but he's okay. Feels like he's learned the majority of his football knowledge from google as he calls things the wrong thing quite often. Doesn't seem to fully understand blocking schemes or coverages/coverage rules. Offensively he does a good job of recognizing concepts and finding a term to call it (think he's using one of the old Patriots playbooks that are out there because a lot of his terms come from their terminology), but understanding who the read is on those plays and how route progression vary based on those reads is not something he excels in. I think his offensive video's are better than the defensive ones - probably because there is more information out there on offenses than defenses? Maybe I'm just hyper-sensitive to it because I'm in it, but these videos get cringey at times.
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Young backers are gonna be the key to the game for us defensively today. Excited to see how they do.
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11 hours ago, Chaos said:
What raw data does PFF have, that is not available to the NFL already for free?
All of the raw data that goes into film breakdown on a per play basis so things like Team, ODK, QTR, Time, Series, P&10, Series, Dn, Dist, Gain/Loss, Hash, Yd Ln, Play Type (Run or Pass), Result (Cmp, Inc, Rush, TD, etc.), PFF tracks the jersey number of every player on the field on a per play basis, Jersey number of players who touched the ball offensively on a given play (QB, RB, WR/TE), etc.
And then the teams will input their own data using their terminology for the football specific stuff. All of the base data that anyone can gather though is extremely time consuming to input manually.
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5 hours ago, Einstein said:
I think you may have a misunderstanding of how PFF grades.
If this were the case, NFL and College teams wouldn't be paying PFF 6+ figures every year for their data.The grading is not one-and-done.
It is first graded by an analyst, then it gets sent for review by a more knowledgeable analyst, and then it goes for final review by a senior analyst (I remember reading that Solomon Wilcots was a senior analyst).
The teams don’t pay for the grades. Those are useless to them. The teams pay for the raw data because they can manipulate it however they want to find tendencies.
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5 hours ago, Einstein said:
Sure.
But as long as the data uses the same methodology for all QB's, you can still make accurate comparisons. This is because the comparisons would be based on a standardized process, which is essential for understanding relative differences or similarities.
I submitted this question to them and will report back when I hear. If I were to guess i'd say PFF, simply because of their connection PFF.That’d be disheartening… PGF outsources their grunt work to India which for most things isn’t an issue - but you’d like to have actual football people do the subjective stuff
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3 hours ago, PBF81 said:
Sounds like the "new Allen," we should know more in another 6 games or so. I would imagine that he's still not at steady-state yet. He's quite likely still figuring a lot of this out on his own.
https://data.fantasypoints.com/
Any idea who’s doing the data mining?
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3 hours ago, Big Turk said:
Don't think anyone should be surprised at Cook's higher YPC on gap runs...Bills have ONLY been consistently successful running with gap scheme for years. At least this year they didn't try to force zone down the OLine's throat and have been mostly gap, although perhaps some of the struggles the last few weeks running have been from attempting more zone runs?
They actually ran Midzone well last week. Think it averaged 5 yards a pop iirc. Beat schemes for them last week were Dart and ISO though.
Inside zone has been horrific though. For multiple weeks.
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2 hours ago, Big Turk said:
Here is one but the video I remember was on youtube and it showed the Bills and how they generated TOs from it a lot.
https://www.cover1.net/dane-jackson-executes-blue-coverage-for-the-interception/
I would assume some coverages are much more effective to disguise than others tho?
More often than not their tied to stunts, so yeah, but its effectiveness is based on hiding the whole look not specifically the coverage.
Huh, that Cover 1 article was interesting. There wasn’t any disguise, or what I would define as disguise, on that play. Plus they weren’t even in Quarters coverage there.
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1 minute ago, Big Turk said:
Isn't Palms one of those disguised coverages that tries to show you one thing pre-snap and another with the rotation post snap? Seem to remember a lot of breakdowns showing the Bills generate a lot of INT's out of Palms
You can disguise (or not disguise) any coverage. Haven't seen any of the breakdowns but would be interested in seeing them if you remember where you found them.
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5 minutes ago, Einstein said:
No this is the NFL Data Suite by Scott Barrett (creator of xFP metric that ESPN uses) and Brett Whitefield (former PFF).It's in Beta right now.
Where does their data come from?
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4 minutes ago, Einstein said:
1) Allen goes to his first read only 55% of the time. That is 3rd lowest in the NFL. Mahomes throws to his first read 60% of the time. Tua? 74% of the time!
2) Diggs is 11th in the NFL in first read targets.
3) Allen is #9 in the NFL in checkdown %. He is definitely taking what the defense is giving him.
4) Knox has a very low catch rate of only 58%. Kincaid is over 90%.
5) Over the last three seasons, Josh Allen has ran an average of 43 times through Week 6. He has ran 22 times this season.
6) Cook has a significantly higher YPC on man/gap runs than zone.
7) Epenesa was the highest rated defensive player on Sunday. Poyer was rated highly as well.
8 ) I'm consistently shocked at the number of posters who criticize Allen. This may be the best season of his career thus far.
9) Allen is #1 in the NFL in sacks avoided.
10) The defense is 4th in the NFL in percentage of dropbacks that we pressure the opposing teams QB.
These from PFF?
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On 10/18/2023 at 10:24 AM, Westside said:
He runs the shotgun draw over and over and over and are lucky if they gain three yards. When I can sit at home and watch the game knowing when a draw play is coming, I’m sure the defense does also. It’s played out, at least if they run that play, don’t use our smallest back for it. Put in Murray who can pound the line.
Dorseys play calling is very easily readable by opposing defenses.So easy that you don't even know what he's running. 😉
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On 10/16/2023 at 7:40 PM, FireChans said:
Common knowledge among the NFL is that the first 12-15 plays from scrimmage is "scripted," partly based on what the team thinks the opposing team is going to do on defense and partly based on what was worked on throughout the week.
I remember the Bills had a great run of having a solid script. I think we had a streak scoring on the opening possession going at one point.
So I decided to do the analysis from the "Josh Allen is elite" era. The script is probably the biggest thing the OC does from a gameplan perspective and is much easier to measure than "adjustments."
Let's look at the numbers!
2020: 7/16 games had a TD or FG on opening drive
2021: 11/17 games had a TD or FG on opening drive
2022: 3 straight to open the year, and 4 of our first 6 but ultimately 6/16 on the year.
2023: 2/6 so far
So what does this tell us? To me, this is a clear indication that our scripted "easy plays" in film study and gameplan preparation are anything but easy lately.
Even more troubling is the steep decline from the first 6 weeks of 2022. I'm sure there's something to be said for tendencies that teams look for and gather info on, so I'm not sure if that is significant or not and may have been partially buoyed by no one knowing what Dorsey liked.
This definitely lends credence to how laborous the offense looked through the second half of 2022 into our current season this year. Now, 4/6 was probably unsustainable, but we have really only scored on 4 opening possessions of our last 16 regular season games? With Josh Allen at QB?
I'm sure I could have done some better datamining, but I think this is a good start. Daboll's 2021 offense was clearly elite from a script perspective. Dorsey's was even better for the first 6 weeks in 2022 and has fallen off a cliff since. What is the reason?
Without context I don't think it "clearly" tells us anything.
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3 hours ago, boyst said:
Go ahead, id like your take
I know the scheme is old enough but am curious how it can be used so efficiently to have no breakdowns of seams the field corner being exposed often. I think it goes back to the athleticism of the current NFL athlete.
Quarters
So as far as terminology goes most coaches differentiate Quarters from Cover 4. Cover 4 is your true spot drop - defensive backs playing their lanes - coverage (think an umbrella coverage - keep everything in front of you - super safe). Quarters has many names - Quarters, Palms, 2 Read (there may be more but those are the main three). This is a man match coverage concept with varying coverage calls and rules based on the offensive formation/alignments. You have your 2x2 concepts and your 3x1 concepts and those can/will vary based on the alignment of the offense. It's up to the Safeties to get the secondary into the best coverage call vs what they are seeing from an offensive alignment. So in 2x2 for example you could have one call for 2x2 normal splits, a different call for 2x2 wide splits, a different call for 2x2 stack, and a fourth call for 2x2 condensed splits. All of those will have their own sets of post-snap match/coverage rules. Then you'll have your various ways of playing 3x1, again based on personnel/alignment and what you want to do with that backside Safety.
Cover 6
Cover 6 will play Quarters to the field, but now play Cover 2 to the boundary. There's various ways to play 2 into the boundary, more often than not it's going to be a 2 Carry concept where the corner will sink with 1 vertical until the ball pulls him off of it, but you could also play a hard Cover 2 or even Trap to that side of the field. Again you have your different menu of calls based on splits and it's up to the Safety to put you in the best call. 3x1 to the field is where it gets interesting because your backside Safety is now occupied in coverage to the boundary so there will be multiple calls that will vary based off of how you want to play 3 vertical.
As far as athleticism goes - every year players are becoming more and more athletic as there are advancements in sports science. With the game continually trending more and more towards passing obviously players are going to need to be more athletic at positions that, even 10 years ago, were more built to stop the run first. This increase in athleticism doesn't just magically make one coverage better than another though.
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7 hours ago, pennstate10 said:
Im not sure about your first sentence.
In my experience, there is an exhilaration that comes with colliding with another player, and coming out on top. I sorta think that this is a pretty normal response.
Ask anyone who has played competitive organized football at a high school or beyond level.
Or maybe I’m a psycho.
Of course there is. It’s an adrenaline pump. I’m not saying there isn’t, but that doesn’t mean it’s a natural human response. Think about youth football - kids first experience playing the game. When they initially learn to tackle their natural reaction is to tense up before contact. As you grow older this gets trained out of you but it still doesn’t make the action a natural one.
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8 hours ago, boyst said:
Don't have a ton of time to get into it this evening and still seeing how cover 4 and cover 6 are being utilized to explain better. They may not be entirely new but they are being used a lot more with new wrinkles, with better athletes, and more effectively.
I can explain them to you if you’d like. There’s no new wrinkles. Those schemes have been around for forever. The only thing that has been changing defensively in the NFL is teams are running more split safety coverages but MOFC coverages still dominate like they always have.
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6 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:
His contract is up after the season, are you extending him to stay on as your #2?
Depends how much money he’s after.
9 hours ago, boyst said:new defensive concepts are out there and just being grasped. we will see if mcdermott can grasp it.
What are some of these new defensive concepts?
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51 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
So in the mic'd up segment with Poyer, we can see him with another DB (Lewis I think) thudding into him pre-game, then Bernard and Poyer run into each other, both before the first defensive series and before the 2nd half.
You guys who have played: Why? What does this do for ya?
It’s not a natural human response to want to throw yourself into another human being. You don’t want your first taste of it to be in live action. It just mentally and physically prepares yourself for the dog fight you’re about to be in. Plus it’s one more opportunity to work technique.
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7 minutes ago, Rubes said:
I've felt like this is the reason we occasionally see receivers near each other, perhaps because they're not quite making the right decisions based on the coverage, and they just need more reps before getting it down 100%. Do you think that's accurate?
The majority of times I've seen receivers close to each other has been on scramble drills where guys are just trying to run to grass to get open for Josh.
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13 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:
How much more production can be squeezed out of this offense if the personnel stays the same?
Gabe, Harty, Shakir, Sherfield are good enough behind Diggs to win 3 Playoff games?
Do the Bills just "live with" Gabe seemingly going up and down? Is that going to work against Playoff defenses? Is Diggs 12+ targets a game sustainable?
Is Kincaid the next player that needs development?
For instance, not sure why, but Michael Mayer for the Raiders has gone from not being targeted in the first 4 games of the season, to now being utilized. I don't know the specifics of coverage and concepts other Raiders are running to free him, but against the Patriots he motioned across the formation, on snap Garoppolo goes with him and throws to him in stride left to right and it's an immediate 20 yards.
Similar formation later in the game, he runs diagonally across the field (with 10 yards depth), Garopollo in stride, and he turns it up for another 20 yard gain.
Athletically, I can't believe that Kincaid couldn't do that.
Motion is one lever, but is the personnel good enough to score against good teams?
Gabe's fine. He has his limitations but his role in our scheme is established and he can execute it well. I wish he caught the ball differently than he does, but that's him and how he's always done it. I think what gets lost on fans is how complex our system is. There's a ton of route conversions within the concepts we run and it takes time and reps to be able to make decisions quickly based on post-snap reads. It's also what allows us to be consistently one of the top offenses in the league year in and year out. We'll be fine.
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6 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:
HoofedHearted, thanks for diagnosing all these attempts.
In your mind what would help this offense avoid lower point outputs - Jets, Jaguars, Giants?
How does Dorsey extract more out of the personnel he has at his disposal?
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5 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:
My issue with Dorsey right now isn't so much the schemes but how he uses them. It was especially evident during the Giants game. Run, Run, Run or Pass, Pass, Pass. Need more motion, more misdirection. Love to see a jet sweep here or there.
I will say the play call on the Harty touchdown was brilliant. Still early and overall the offense has been good.
This is what gets me about this place (and totally not saying this is you). We ran the same exact play to Shakir last week and we didn't convert with it and everyone was talking about how it was such a horrible play call, bad scheme, etc. but this week we run it and it scores and it's brilliant lol. Again, not saying this is you - just a general statement about the board as a whole as I've seen multiple comments that match your sentiment.
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20 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
That's kinda what I was wondering also, it seemed against Miami they had a whole array of various motions and shifts and then really nothing the last 2 games other than a few short motions or a back shifting from one side to the other behind Allen for protection purposes I am assuming?
Do you think Dorsey doesn't do a good enough job of building in answers when he calls a play for a specific coverage but then it ends up not being that coverage? Is that even a thing?
I remember we had a lot of success under Daboll on those Allen audibled "Gold Rip/Whip" screens to Brown but those have largely disappeared other than a few screen-like plays to players out of the backfield on swing passes behind the LOS, which seem to be largely WR's(Harty, Diggs, Shakir), but in general our screen game is terrible...and I don't think it should be...they have enough athletic OLinemen to make that work better. What do you think the issue is with that? Why do other teams have such great screen games and ours is so bad? Seems so weird we used to have the best screen game in the NFL under Gailey and now it's among the worst. You would think the concepts would be taught the same way that there wouldn't be as huge of a difference between them...seems the Bills RBs are never open on screens and Allen has to turf it usually. Also seem to like running TE screens to Knox which often times gets turfed too since he is covered or there are a large number of bodies around him.
Nah, typically the backside of those coverage specific routes is either a man beater or a universal concept that can win again anything. As far as the screen game - I really only like the perimeter screen game with this group. I don't think our OL are athletic enough in open space to engage blocks so avoiding those is 100% the right call. Our perimeter screen game should be fantastic though if we use Knox and Kincaid as the MDM blockers.
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2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
Interesting...so in your opinion, what can Dorsey do on a consistent basis to make the offense more consistent game to game and harder to defend for defenses with the personnel he has at his disposal? And how much of this is on Dorsey versus Allen not executing the concepts properly?
I said this in another post somewhere, but schematically I'd like to see more shifts and motions. I really liked what we were doing pre-snap in the miami game, but a lot of that was opponent specific because of all the man and man-match coverages they run. We do some good things with misdirection, I'd like to see more of that going forward - anything to get a defense moving or having to communicate as the ball is being snapped is good business for an offense. I think Dorsey does a phenomenal job of calling concepts that attack the coverages we're seeing in specific down/distance/field zone situations. The struggles with balance within series has largely been due to getting off schedule or not sustaining drives. I'd like to see him incorporate our tight ends on the perimeter a lot more than they currently are. We should be a hellacious screen team with Knox and Kincaid kicking out Corners on perimeter screens, but we haven't really utilized them a whole lot. There's been a few occasions where Josh has held the ball a little long for various reasons, but then just overall execution of the entire offense needs to improve early in games, specifically the offensive line and I think it will the longer they play with each other. Unfortunately there isn't one thing you can point to as the problem the last two weeks, but the good news is that the issues are all easily correctable.
18 minutes ago, boyst said:The ebbs and flowers of football development make the next 3-4 years interesting
Why do you say that?
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10/22/23 GAMEDAY Bills at Pats* Pregame Thread
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Don't think I've watched any of his.