corta765
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Posts posted by corta765
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Welp that didn't go as planned. Just going to dive in:
Season strengths
Offense: Josh Allen, emergence of James Cook, offensive line cohesive, Shakir & Kincaid coming to life, the offense with Joe Brady
Defense: the entire defensive line minus Von, Terrel Bernard emerging, aggressive style as the season progressed, Rasual Douglas, Taron Johnson
Weaknesses:
Offense: Lack of consistent pass catchers, Stefon Diggs seemingly aging weekly, any time Gabe Davis is near the football field, inability to hit deep passes
Defense: Injuries, LB depth, Von Miller, communication at times in the secondary
Other: Special teams in general was bad and got worse, coaching staff ability to maximize the teams best players on offense, outside distractions from McD's 9/11 reference to Von being accused of awful things
Weeks 1-4 Bounce & Go:
Bills come into the season with increased competition across the conference but Rodgers is gone and the Bills look to have an easy win. Instead Josh truly implodes and the Jets steal a win. No matter the Bills rattle off 3 in a row and at 3-1 after beating divisional rival Miami look like the best team in the AFC. Diggs is off to his best start, Allen looks god like, and the defense looks solid although Tre White going out takes some luster off the start.
Weeks 5-12 Destruction, Diving Down, & Bottoming Out
Buffalo may just forfeit rather then ever go to England again as the Bills not only lose the game but the heart of their defense Matt Milano and stud DT DaQuan Jones both suffer what amounts to season ending injuries. The team itself looks scrambled as the offense reverts back to out of whack and out of sorts. Subsequent weeks show a team without an identity, offense that can't figure itself out, and stunning losses to the Patriots and Broncos. Ken Dorsey is fired after the Broncos game which seems to snap the offense out of its funk, but a soul crushing loss in PHI makes even the most ardent believers question the season as the Bills sink to 6-6 at the bye.
Weeks 14-18 Revival
The Bills win in Kansas City starting a run where they win out knocking out Dallas at home and winning a thrilling week 18 matchup in Miami for the division crown and an unexpected 2 seed for the playoffs. The offense is clicking as kids like Shakir and Kincaid emerge, the defensive line is a force, and the team itself gets some players back from injury. They are not the prettiest wins, but maybe this time it is different as the team seems to have an answer when it matters.
Playoffs Losing Close Forever Hurts More Then Losing Big
The Bills after a wild week in Buffalo with snow take on Pittsburgh and take care of business as the offense and Allen answers the bell and the defense makes needed plays when it matters. Every embattled CB Kair Elam has a wonderful INT as the team keeps finding answers and the moment seems there as a rematch with KC is on the horizon.
Time of Death Sunday January 21st 9:35
Causes:
-Defensive line unable to impact Mahomes despite being the most important and healthy area of the defense. In the biggest moment the entire defensive line couldn't do anything and Von Miller of all people had the most tackles of that group... yikes
-Three separate deep passes all being dropped including Stefon Diggs which hit him in the hands and felt like a game changer at that point
-LB corp basically starting a guy who two weeks earlier was on the couch and the other is a special teamer. Tough assignment for anyone
-The offense having some yips in the 4th quarter and truly bad luck. Bills were about one foot away from a TD and the lead with 2 mins left if Dawkins isn't pushed into Allen by Chris Jones
-Aging defense shows a bit as they do what they can but in general are chasing a lot
-Coaching staff who again in a huge moment can't answer the bell
Reviving for 2024-25:
Much was made heading into 2023-24 of the future of the Bills as you could see this was the last go for a lot of veteran guys and were there any answers to positions that saw attrition in FA or age. Much has been made about the salary cap but realistically Beane can open 14-19 million in space with a few restructures like Josh, contract extensions like Douglas, and a few cuts to veterans like Tre White & Morse. Attrition is hard but you also want to catch a guy before the floor falls out from them like what happened to Von this year. The good news heading into 2024-25 is many young players emerged as players like Cook, Kincaid, Shakir, Torrence, Bernard, and Groot all seemed to either find a new level and truly step into their own. The holes on the defense are not awful as it looks something like this:
Groot - Oliver - need player - Von/Kingsley
Milano - Bernard
Douglas - need player - Poyer - Johnson -Benford
Guys like DaQuan Jones, Floyd, Settle, & AJ all are free agents and I would expect half to come back and the other half walks. Safety & DT both need to be addressed in the draft, but the defense has more solutions then not to be solid. The LB corp healthy feels a lot nicer knowing Dodson and Williams are off the bench instead. Additionally Beane excels at finding cheap vets to sprinkle in so come week 1 the defense will look decent to most. Not seeing names like Hyde & White (Possibly Poyer although I think they keep him) will be weird, but generally the defense will have impact guys at all three levels.
The offense though is a different story. Josh Allen's two best passing years came in 2020 & 2021 which coincided with the Bills in 2019/2020 adding Beasley, Brown, Diggs, & Davis. The erosion in the WR corp showed up last year and became far more evident this year. Shakir emerged as a great slot WR & Kincaid certainly found his footing at TE to leave a lot to be excited about. But you cannot escape Diggs fall in production + his age, Davis doing nothing a lot, and Sheffield/Harty being virtually non existent at points. Buffalo desperately needs to draft two WRs high to truly add some juice and possibly consider using what cap they have for established vet like they did in Emmanuel Sanders in 2021 for a year. The offensive line really came together as young pieces like Torrence and Brown stepped up while Dawkins had probably his best year and McGovern did what they paid him for. Morse is good but old, they can save cap switching to Bates who has done fine at center or even draft a player. The true future with the offense should be though continuing to get younger at the skill spots so hopefully by the end of next year you have an emerging WR1 to pair with Diggs for another year as Cook/Kincaid/Shakir keep getting better and hopefully another WR3/4 waiting to also jump in.
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On 1/17/2024 at 2:48 PM, DCofNC said:
I think Po is about cooked. Hyde, when healthy, is still really good. As a pair, I’d take them back; however, if Hyde goes, I’m dumping Po too.
The advanced numbers have liked Poyers play more and they also use him as LB regularly. Hyde is hurt so much now with that neck I just can't see him staying.
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My guess is one is staying to not shake the apple cart completely and based off performance and health I expect it to be Poyer. If the Bills win the SB Hyde is retiring on spot, otherwise I just can't devote cap space to him at this point.
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Bills 24
Steelers 19
Bills control the game through as they go up 14-7 at half thanks to Allen TD pass to Diggs and running one in. Steelers get a FG out of half to make it 14-10, but the offense takes it time for Cook TD at the goal line. Steelers get a FG to stay close, but an early Ruldolph fumble at midfield allows the Bills to run more clock and Bass hits a FG from 35 yds out to ice the game at 24-13 with 3:30 left. A late Steelers TD kills the spread, but no matter 24-19 onto to the divisional round.
Allen 241 yds 20-27 1 TD 55 yds rush
Cook 89 yds 10 carries 1 TD
Davis 107 yds 4 rec
Oliver 2 sacks and FF
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3 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:
Daboll couldn’t produce a rush attack to save his life. I’m confused because everybody hated this guy when he was here and now everyone wants him back if he ever becomes available.
His sainthood is overboard but the offense was far more consistent, creative, and dynamic with Daboll. With Dorsey the offense clearly regressed in those areas and was incredibly predictable. The Bills rushing attack with Daboll was 8th in 2019, 19th in 2020, and 6th in 2021 so that is kind of a weird angle to pick. The biggest credit with Daboll was he seemed to settle Josh down in 2020 and 2021 in way that truly limited his mistakes or goofball mistakes. Before and after those years Josh has had more of those highs and lows and I think that is the big thing people look at was what he managed to do there.
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On 7/7/2023 at 11:18 AM, corta765 said:
Going bold alphabetically, not doing everyone because not everyone is bold
ARZ- goes 1-16 with only win against ATL
BAL- miss the playoffs despite Lamar playing all year as division attrition and WC tie breaker vs Jets haunts them
CAR- wins division at 10-7
CHI- only go 6-11 and Fields ends up being a more glorified runner then passer and again CHI has to ask what to do at QB
DAL- make the SB
DET- fail to win division and barely make playoffs at 9-8 (MIN wins again at 10-7)
DEN- win the AFC W at 11-6
GB- go 5-12 as the bottom falls out for real and Love is not the answer. welcome to QB purgatory
JAX- take AFC 1 seed at 13-4
LAC- implode at 6-11 and Staley is fired
LAR - bounce back to a 9-8 record and just miss wildcard
MIA- Tua plays all 17 games and they go 11-6 winning a game in the wildcard
NYG- luck smiles the opposite way as they go 7-10 and are never really close to being in the hunt at any point
NYJ- make the playoffs as the final WC spot but get bounced in first round after blowing a 20-3 lead at halftime
PHI- the NFC East finally sees a division winner repeat as the Eagles repeat but lose in the divisional round to Dallas at home
PIT- The non losing season run ends as they go 6-11 as Pickett fails to take the next step and being in a tough division wrecks havoc as they finally finish 4th
SEA- they win the NFC West and 1 seed at 12-5
SF- they make the playoffs but as a wild card as 10-7 as QB uncertainty finally catches them a little
WSH- New ownership brings in a new era... but the results on the field are worse as they go 3-14 and end up picking 2nd in the draft
haha oh boy lets recap how bold I was and how bad it got
ARZ- goes 1-16 with only win against ATL (ended better but still near bottom)
BAL- miss the playoffs despite Lamar playing all year as division attrition and WC tie breaker vs Jets haunts them (whoops)
CAR- wins division at 10-7 (holy f*ck this was bad)
CHI- only go 6-11 and Fields ends up being a more glorified runner then passer and again CHI has to ask what to do at QB (close)
DAL- make the SB (TBD)
DET- fail to win division and barely make playoffs at 9-8 (MIN wins again at 10-7) (I think had Cousins not been healthy MIN would've won it)
DEN- win the AFC W at 11-6 (they got closer then most thought)
GB- go 5-12 as the bottom falls out for real and Love is not the answer. welcome to QB purgatory (missed)
JAX- take AFC 1 seed at 13-4 (happily wrong about)
LAC- implode at 6-11 and Staley is fired (nailed it)
LAR - bounce back to a 9-8 record and just miss wildcard (almost got it)
MIA- Tua plays all 17 games and they go 11-6 winning a game in the wildcard (got record right lets see if they beat KC)
NYG- luck smiles the opposite way as they go 7-10 and are never really close to being in the hunt at any point (nailed)
NYJ- make the playoffs as the final WC spot but get bounced in first round after blowing a 20-3 lead at halftime (Rodgers injury ruined this week 1)
PHI- the NFC East finally sees a division winner repeat as the Eagles repeat but lose in the divisional round to Dallas at home (imploding)
PIT- The non losing season run ends as they go 6-11 as Pickett fails to take the next step and being in a tough division wrecks havoc as they finally finish 4th (luckiest wildcard team ever, statistically they are a 6-11 team)
SEA- they win the NFC West and 1 seed at 12-5 (Geno and the offense failed)
SF- they make the playoffs but as a wild card as 10-7 as QB uncertainty finally catches them a little (whoops)
WSH- New ownership brings in a new era... but the results on the field are worse as they go 3-14 and end up picking 2nd in the draft (spot on nailed it)
I would say I nailed 3 of these, was close on three others
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50 minutes ago, SWATeam said:
I always been pretty aligned with Warner in that Josh needs to take more layups.
Agreed. Brady I think is trying his best to not fully overhaul the offense as you really can't at this point while adding easier throws, motion, play action... basically all the sh*t Dorsey didn't do that limited the offense.
I expect whoever is the OC next year blends more of this regularly in and makes Kincaid/Shakir a larger focus the way Beasley was to have an easy option. Daboll really got the offense excelling once he got Josh on that page and presented it.I think Warner has actually had some of the best analysis of Josh.
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16 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:
I'm not so sure on that. He's put up Top 10 numbers in this system with these weapons throwing to his first read. But looking at the list of great and good QBs...
5-6 Top Tier QBs
mahomes
allen
burrow
jackson
dakThen the rest of the pack with some really good QBs at the top:
cousins
herbert
goff
purdy
stroud
lawrencestafford
hurts
mayfield
carrNot sure I'd put Tua above anyone until we get to the Hurts/Mayfield area... and that's #13/14ish.
If he's top 10, it's barely.
That is why I said top 10. He had a superb year and most stats he is top 5 or better. I 100% agree though he is in the next group below.
The five you mentioned are the elite and everyone after have the potential to be close but not the same. Stroud could be elite just need more time to see how it plays out. The big issue with the potential top 10 group you listed is they are good enough to win a SB in perfect conditions, but the contract your going to pay will also limit your roster building which is why guys like Carr and Mayfield seemed to regress as the talent had to leave.
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46 minutes ago, transient said:
If they were smart they would go with Tua’s fifth year option and draft a smart college QB with limited arm talent to see what someone like that would look like with those weapons in training camp before committing big money to Tua. I’m hoping they commit to Tua long term instead, because as soon as they do they won’t be able to continue to afford the type of weapons that he needs to be successful.
It is certainly an interesting situation. You can reasonably say he is a Top 10 QB and I do believe with a good set of weapons (healthy) he can win a SB. But they faded down the stretch and he was at fault not making plays. In 2020 it was win and get in and he looked awful, last night he was OK at best. Once that money is paid the expectation is you can elevate your team at points. Tyreek is one of a kind and once he is gone what happens? I think all of that probably made last night even worse for PHIN fans as they know this to be true and if they cannot make a run this post season the table only gets harder.
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56 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:
I actually feel sorry for Dolphins fans, we all know how excruciating the 17 year drought was, 4 straight SB losses, etc. But they have a hell of a team down there and still think their future is bright, just got hit hard with ridiculous injuries at the worse possible time. A few plays go differently and it'd be a much different reality right now for both the Bills and Dolphins.
I agree with this. I like Tua and think he is a good QB, they have done a good job with McDaniel building him and the team up. I couldn't imagine with how high they were feeling and their playoff history which is pretty dark going on 3 decades how yesterday feels to get stomped out when it felt for so long like breakthrough. I still thing for the foreseable future they are a problem and do win a division while being competitive, BUT Hill is aging, they have to pay Tua, and their cap isn't great. The time with Tua still being cheap was the last two years, now like every other QB who gets paid it puts more of the onus on him and they could have regret 2-3 years down the road.
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11 hours ago, SydneyBillsFan said:
- The Dolphins have had a curse ever since moving to this stadium built on a native American burial ground
Apparently 80% of the NFL is built on native american burial grounds lol
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47 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
To be fair, the exact same thing was said after the Bills game vs the Dolphins. Their use of motion with Hill was so precise that the Bills used the Dolphins going into motion as a timer to jump the snap. That was how they were getting such consistent pressure on Tua all day.
Now, I would assume that McDaniels cleaned a bit of it up, but I believe that the tells are the biggest weakness to the use of motion to the extent that the Phins and Niners use it. Because you need the timing and motion to be perfect on the quick throws, there is a risk of predictability if you rely on it too much...which is the core of McDaniel's offense.
I think some teams also just have teams that are bad matchups. The Jets since Saleh got his D in have been pretty tough for Josh as they seem to really do a good job in the secondary on how they defend him and have the horses to do enough up front to constantly have pressure. I think the Bills truthfully are a bad matchup for the type of team Buffalo has v MIA or even SF. Both passers are great timing passers that rely on scheme and motion to excel. Disrupt that and both have issues, create pressure up front and it is a problem. Be physical with their WRs and they will fade as the game goes on.
The Patriots during their run always seemed to have the Steelers number, but I really think part of it was they baited PIT into a street fight regularly and then just torched them when they weren't paying attention to the actual scheme because they were too focused on physicality. I think CIN is an atrocious matchup for Buffalo because Lou on D excels at pressing our WR's and creating pressure across the board while their offense seems to like contact and a smash mouth style which until this year Buffalo's D failed at.
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56 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:
I think he revealed two things. Both those teams might have some tendencies but I think he also specifically said hit them for 4 quarters. Ie they are physically and possibly mentally soft.
I will give McD some credit here which I am usally not apt to do.
I think the D is playing the most physical football they have played since McD arrived. Guys are really hitting and tackling hard. The defense still has mental lapses but I do think they can really hit guys. Dodson, Rapp, Oliver, Douglas, Poyer(still), Floyd, Jones and Joseph are all very physical defenders.
Agreed. 2019 defense was probably the last truly physical unit I can remember with McD, since then was more rope a dope.
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21 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:
ive been saying it since the offseason. defenses have been drafting smaller/faster players on defense to deal with the high flying passing offenses. last year we saw NE, Cle, Ind make an emphasis on the run games.... all dealing w/ below avg QB production, and leaned in on light defenses. CLE/IND the last few years have been the wildcard type nobody wants to play because of their unique style/lighter defenses.
interesting development. didnt expect us to get on board, but did see a run game resurgency coming. i think their will be some bigger Brandon Spikes type players develop a role through the draft/FA again next year. this shizz moves in cycles lol
Yep and they have mixed NCB/LB together which is becoming a real weapon or even SAF/LB the way the Bills will use Poyer or Rapp. I am still a firm believer that a true top slot WR or TE can open an offense more then any other position and is basically unguardable. Kincaid has looked very good as a rookie and I am hopeful long term he can be what Beasley was for Josh.
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Offense v Defense has forever been cat and mouse game that keeps evolving.
I posted a while back that offenses this season are down compared the last decade and heading into this weekend teams are averaging 21.95 ppg. Comparatively the last five years offenses in the NFL averaged the following ppg:
Defenses have evolved and it is not just playing Cover-2 shell, but far more creative blitz packages that do not send a ton of rushers but are very focused on how they attack the QB while covering the defense. Offenses are having to earn their yards far more then before. Additionally offensive line play has regressed as they keep reducing practices which takes away important developmental time. McDaniel and Miami were ahead of teams for awhile last year, but teams have caught up to there motion offense and figured out how to disrupt Tua better. I do think this year is a bit of blip with the ppg cratering to levels not seen since 2010ish and the injuries to so many major QBs also removed some of the better QBs from being able to drive offenses.
But there certainly has been a swing back to defense this year which has been growing for 2-3 years now and I think you are seeing that in spades.
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15 hours ago, Augie said:
I broke that in a high school scrimmage against Amherst. Nobody really cared this much. 🤷♂️
your sacrifice was acceptable
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This is a good post and I will add one thing.
The playoffs and going on runs use to be much harder pre wildcard expansion to 6 teams or especially now with 7. Many of your best QBs until expansion in 1990 had years they missed and had a good to great season as a team and didn't even make the dance. Winning your division was truly paramount if you wanted a guaranteed shot to make it. The additional error allows for a bit more of an up and down type season and favors elite QBs as if they can get in the sky is the limit. Brady 2020 and Rodgers 2010 both showed that and truthfully I wouldn't be surprised if over the next few decades more wildcard winners happen as any elite QB who gets in will have a shot.
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13 hours ago, KCNC said:
Bilz - 28
Fish - 27
I could really see this game going either way but feel like the Bills are less beat up especially in the trenches.
On pure logic Buffalo is favorites because injuries aren't present whereas Miami is just hurt so much across the board. I just think Miami's line issues on both sides really make it a hard task when Buffalo's D line is the healthiest its been all season and Buffalo's O Line has played all year together well. IF Miami was not as banged up I actually would take them without issue.
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*This prediction is completely based on the Bills needing to win to get in, if BUF has a spot prior to game I have zero idea what happens as I can see BUF and MIA both letting down in a weird way
Bills 27
Dolphins 20
Honestly I couldn't get a feel for this game until yesterday when the pro bowl rosters came out and Miami's injury report did. The Pro Bowl rosters and lack of respect shown for the Bills is beyond fuel for the guys and something teams take to heart big time. The injury report for Miami is insane, they are where we were back in October where we became the walking wounded for a while. Their trenches are a disaster which helps Buffalo immensely especially keeping Tua in check.
I think the Bills offense gets them out to a 13-6 lead at half as both teams are more measured in approach then in the 1st matchup. Diggs gets the Bills TD early to shed some of his quietness lately. Second half Hyde gets an INT deep in the Bills zone as Tua gets hit on a deep pass. Buffalo marches down and scores on a Kincaid TD from 5 yards out to go up 20-6. Miami and Buffalo trade TD's on subsequent possessions as Tyreek gets a TD on an end around and Buffalo sees Cook go on a 30 yard TD to go up 27-13. Buffalo holds Miami and drains a sizable amount of time before Bass misses a FG. Miami scores with 5 mins to go, but the Bills drain the clock and get the division.
Allen 22-31 282 yds 2 TDs 43 yds rush
Cook 110 yds 14 atts 1 TD
Diggs 101 yds 1 TD 7 rec
Groot 1 sacks 3 TFL
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1 hour ago, dakrider said:
Would LIKE to see Bills play well in at least 3 quarters of football, get a big lead in first half, not 17-7 but more like 24-3, and then continue in the 3rd qtr. and get up like 38-10 and then have Josh sit out the 4th qtr. Bills should not treat this game lightly at all.
Agreed. Chargers may have quit last week but that also just cost them coach and GM along with a massive amount of embarrassment. They are going to at least come out and play to show that they are something which is always dangerous. It is why I have Buffalo winning 27-16, I think Chargers hand around enough as guys like Mack and some other vets aren't going to settle after last week and play with some true pride. As long as Buffalo is focused their fine, but there is no toss up.
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2 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:
The clue is Sahn Diahgo. From the German.
Technically lost in translation
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Buffalos 27
Lighting Type Activity 16
Chargers get an early 3-0 lead to show their not rolling over but Bills respond with a Diggs 20 yard TD. Bills and Chargers trade FGs before the Bills get an INT late 2nd quarter and Murray pounds a TD in to make it 17-6 at half. Bills get the ball and go on a long drive but stall with a FG after Knox drops a TD to make it 20-6. The Chargers are fiesty and manage to drive for a TD late in the 3rd quarter to make it 20-13 as the WNY locals get restless. But Allen and crew methodically work the field and Kincaid scores from 5 yards out to finish the game off at 27-13. Late garbage FG for the Chargers and then Buffalo runs the clock out.
Allen 23-30 251 2 TDs 40 yards rushing
Murray 65 yds 6 atts 1 TD
Diggs 131 yds 1 TD 7 rec
Groot 2 sacks
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3 hours ago, DC Greg said:
I feel like I'm asking a dumb question having seen at least 30 games in that stadium, but what is this "crown" everyone is talking about?
For drainage reasons when they built the new stadium the field was pitched so water/snow goes to the sides from the middle. Before they put the current turf in and we just had the carpet astro turf it was so serve the arc you could literally see the field height difference. I believe the old crown was 18 inches of height difference from side to middle and the current is more like 6 as they are better with drainage and absorbing the water.
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10 hours ago, Virgil said:
To me, the issue was the defense. Josh could score 40 and I wasn’t convinced we wouldn’t give up 41. We blew so many games on the final drives, I believe it was a warranted concern.
These last two weeks have felt different and if we play the same way the next three weeks, we can beat anyone
Yep. The offense with Dorsey I lost the confidence in terms of the offense being consistent, but Josh always gives you a chance and they were not the worst offense in the league either. Brady has unlocked the offense back to the 2020 feels where I feel whatever the score is they can do it.
But the defense was the big issue. NE & DEN they wilted so badly and blew leads late. PHI I don't criticize as much as they are a good team, but the other two just can't happen and it felt like even if the offense was rolling could the D just make some plays. The bye seems to allowed some healing injury wise along with the coaching staff to figure a few things out.
Bills Season Autopsy 23/24 & Reviving for 24/25
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Few things:
1. Our WR corp is not great and they are not great at separation either. WR in stride requires having the edge on the CB and Shakir is really the only WR who does that. Kincaid also has this ability and I expect it to grow
2. The offense was designed by Dorsey and it was incredibly vanilla. Most of the time one or two deep with the other WR/TEs running curl type routes. They just put out the EPA for the three offensive coordinators Josh has had in the playoffs (EPA is expected points added, basically if you have a good player or OC the number is positive) . Daboll was 18.24, Brady was 9.96... Dorsey was -4.68. Brady I think did what he could as you couldn't scrap the entire play book to bring motion, screens, disguises, etc.. into the fold. I 100% agree that the offense lacked those type of plays but much of this was design and what the operation was.
3. Josh is boom and bust a bit and he does take the big shot over the easy. It obviously works and is good vast majority of the time, but it causes you to miss players open when that is the case with an easy slant or crossing route.