billspro
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So you wouldn't draft Marcus Mariotta or Dak Prescott? If we followed your rules we could only wait for Andrew Luck (and we never draft top 2) or run a Peterman or a Chad Henne out there.
Don't compare Oregon's or Texas A&M's offence to Texas Tech. The Qb has way more responsibilities in those offences.
When people talk Air Raid they are talking about Texas Tech, Cal, and probably some other Big 12 offences.
It's not about Air Raid. I was told Goff would be a bust but it had nothing to do with playing in a spread offense. Air Raid is just a spread offense. There is nothing about it that prevents a prospect anymore than another spread offense. Air Raid's poor record has to do with they had few talented QB prospects playing in it.
Other spread offence's have a lot more NFL concepts.
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So many things to like about Watson. What bothers me is that he could only throw the football a max of 49mph at the combine. This will be exposed at the next level.
He is more of a touch and anticipation thrower though. Almost every single Qb improves their arm strength the first three years with NFL strength and conditioning. I am not sure how ball speed will translate on the field, I do know Tyrod and Glennon have more than enough arm strength to make every throw. Watson had great ball placement at the combine and was actually praised for being the best thrower. Evaluating a guy on one metric is silly.
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Are you Watson fans concerned that his "fastball" only hit 49 MPH at the combine? I am. I used to be a fan of using the 10th pick on him, but for QBs, this stat seems to be the equivalent of a WR running a 4.80 40-yard dash--a huge red flag.
It is a bit of a concern. He shows he can make all the throws on tape. Watson throws with a lot of touch and anticipation, similar to Drew Brees. He was by far the most natural and accurate thrower at the combine. I have seen him gun it between two defenders on multiple occasions at the collegiate level.
We are lucky to have a shot at Watson, if he threw 4 less int he would be going top 3.
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They will only sign him if they don't get their guy in the draft imo.
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Peterman taped Gruden QB camp segment on Tuesday. Great Senior Bowl week and more coaches watch his tape the better they like him.
There is no doubt we are going QB early. That is the only position they are bringing top prospect in. I expect a QB in round 1 or round 2.
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yes! Chad Hanson was one of my favorite players in cfb last season
he is so underrated, if we get him in the third we have a legit number 2 WR.
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Draft a QB for sure.
There are not many chances to get your pick of any QB in the class. This isn't 2013 where you are taking a 3rd round prospect in the 1st round. The top four guys are legit 1st-early second round prospects, there is a franchise QB in this draft.
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Every time I watch Webb it just makes me want to draft Chad Hansen, that guy played amazing last year. Webb definitely flashed at the senior bowl, he has all the tools but also played in the Air Raid offence so he has a lot to learn. He didn't outplay Goff so I would see him a a 2-3 year developmental project.
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I am a big Reddick fan. We could probably do better in round 2 and 3.
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No, I'd rather take 3 or 4 random plays out of context and declare him a future draft bust. Wait, sounds like a Fahey "evaluation".
I never declared him a draft bust, he has a chance to be special. I just don't know if he is worth pick 10, would be happy taking a chance on him in round 2.
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Honestly, if you want to get the excitement just watch a game where you can see every snap. Scouting reports don't do him justice. You have to see for yourself.
That is probably his best game. If you would like to see some of the negatives about Mahommes watch this game.
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I wholly defend the EJ pick in 2013.
Was it a pick that worked out? Unquestionably not.
Was it a smart pick at the time? Absolutely. If you don't have a franchise QB, and you believe that there's a guy available that can become one, then you're negligent if you don't pull the trigger on the guy.
That's not to say you should pick a QB just for the sake of doing it...there's a major difference in the two statements.
I have no problem with it either. They bet on EJ's character and intangibles and lost. His failure had nothing to do with his work ethic, EJ gave everthing he could to become a franchise guy, he just didn't have the stuff.
Keep drafting until we hit one.
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Weighing Pros and Cons for Mahomes:
Pros:
Elite, Once in a decade arm talent
Very Good Accuracy
Great Pocket Presence
Fast Release
Ability to Throw Off Balance/Different Platforms
Ability to Throw on Move
Good Movement in Pocket to Evade Rush
Can Throw With Anticipation and Touch
Can Go Through Progressions
Can Manipulate Defenders With Eyes
Field General Qualities
Natural Athlete
Not a running QB but can scramble for a 1st down
Good Size
Adequate Height
Toughness
Fiery Leader
Loves Football
Intelligent
Swagger
Cons:
Played in Spread Offense
Not used to calling out plays in huddle, will need to learn verbiage
Not used to playing under center
Very Raw in throwing under 3, 5, and 7 step drops
Over Confident in Arm
Sloppy, inconsistent footwork
He checks so many boxes and few college QB's play under center in pro-style offenses. He does need to be reined in with a strong coaching staff.
I do have questions about his pocket movement and progression ability. He makes mistakes in those areas often, he does flash the ability to do that.
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Oddly enough, the last 2 years have been a departure from the norm, wherein neither Shaq nor Darby visited One Bills Drive.
True. I still think it shows their plan a little bit. They brought in some late round Qbs (wish we got Dak), a lot of DL and LBs (that is where we went in the first three rounds), and some intriguing late round guys.
I don't think they thought Shaq would be on the board so they didn't bring him in. The same thing could happen this year if a guy like Adams falls. I always like to monitor the pre-draft visits though, it gives me some idea where the Bills are going in the draft. All I have taken from the visits so far is that we will be drafting a Qb at some point this year and we will probably see one of these guys in the fifth round.
- Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
- Cardale Jones, QB, Ohio State
- Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State
- Devon Johnson, FB, Marshall
- Kolby Listenbee, WR, TCU
- Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
- Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
- Bronson Kaufusi, DE, BYU
- Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State
- Vernon Butler, DL, Louisiana Tech
- Sheldon Rankins, DL, Louisville
- Jarran Reed, DL, Alabama
- Adolphus Washington, DL, Ohio State
- Su'a Cravens, LB, USC
- Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia
- Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State
- Antonio Morrison, LB, Florida
- Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
- Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
- Cyrus Jones, CB, Alabama
- Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State
- Kelvin Fisher, Jr., S, UTEP
- Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia
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http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/04/01/buffalo-bills-2017-nfl-draft-interest-tracker/
This site seems to do a pretty good job.
Usually the Bills bring in their first round pick for a predraft visit.
Right now the only players that seem like first round picks are Mahommes and Robinson. It looks like they are comfortable going secondary in the third and fifth round. They may not even draft a WR either, seems like the interest is low in that position.
Here is last years list:
http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2016/3/29/11322820/2016-buffalo-bills-pre-draft-visitor-tracker
We drafted Listenbee, Ragland, and Washington. It was one of the only years our first round pick wasn't brought in for a pre-draft visit.
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I was told about Watson's throwing issues before I even saw the combine numbers. My source told me he throws a fluttering ball. That is a huge red flag and the combine MPH only confirms what I was told.
Paul Hamilton of WGR watched Mahomes play a game on Youtube last night and now doesn't want to draft him.
Trade up!!!!
There is more evaluating a QB than that. Peyton Manning also threw a flutter ball. The one thing that consistently QBs improve the first few years in the league is arm strength (e.g Carr, Smith, Brady, Eli, Bridgewater, Dalton). Watson can put more strength on his frame so I have no doubt that number will improve. I think his floor is Alex Smith.
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Why not?
I just see him more of a Plaxico Burress/Alshon Jeffery type of WR. I think he would be a solid number 1 and an elite number 2. He wouldn't be a bad pick at 10, but I want an elite player with a top ten pick. If you draft a WR top ten he better be a Julio Jones/AJ Green/Calvin Johnson type player.
Now saying that I want the Bills to draft Watson and there is a lot higher chance he busts than Mike Williams. That is a much safer draft. We would have a very good number 2 WR, a starting CB, and a starting S. I like all of the other picks as developmental guys as well. I would be very happy with this draft, if I am running the team I am looking for a franchise QB though.
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I personally don't think Williams is a top ten player but he would definitely be a great number 2 WR. Odds are we would get three starters out of this draft so I would be very happy.
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Watson has great intangibles. When NFL teams meet him they will feel like they are talking to Dak from last year. I just don't see the upside with him. His arm talent is comparable to people that are #2 QB's. Saying you can make every throw is fine but if it floats in the air corners will break on it. In Buffalo that would be further magnified. He had a ridiculous supporting cast. Mike Williams, Renfrow, Leggett, and Artavis Scott will all be NFL players. I would take Artavis Scott in the 5th and be fine with that. Clemson coaches did a great job and he was the top QB in college but I don't take him in the first.
I don't think his arm strength will be an issue in the pros because he has great anticipation. His ball will get there at the same time as QBs with big arms because his anticipation is so good. He also has the best back shoulder throw I have ever seen coming out of college. He did have some talent around him but he played defenses that matched up talent wise.
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Somehow I missed this post--sorry about that
I really don't have an issue with any of what you said. It's merely a case where I like the upside of his skill set enough to gamble on him.
Let's face it--each of the top QBs in this class is a gamble, so if I miss, I want it to be on the guy with the greatest upside.
I agree, it is always a gamble to take a QB in the first couple rounds. It is very rare to find a complete prospect. Qb is the toughest position to play and odds are most guys will bust. I am a believer in continuing to take chances on QBs though. Mahommes does show things on tape that indicate he could be a great player. He has a lot of wow throws and is a gamer. I usually focus on the negatives of a prospect before the draft and Mahommes obviously has some risks. If we drafted him I would still be excited because he could become great. I would feeler a lot better about him in the second round though, I just think he is too risky to take in round 1.
Saying that I feel the Bills need to get one of the top 4 Qbs in this class. I personally hope it is Watson, I just think he has the it factor. Watson has negatives as well. Very average arm strength, deep ball accuracy is inconsistent, often runs before getting to second and third read, and turns the ball over to often. His positives are what I look for in a Qb though. He is clutch, has a quick release, good ball placement on short and intermediate throws, throws with anticipation, has the "it" factor, and is very athletic.
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Wouldn't shock me if we picked Peppers, he is very versatile. Personally I would pick Reddick over Peppers, but the Bills brought Peppers in for a visit so you know they like him.
I would have trouble passing on Watson though, if he becomes a star we would regret that pick for the next decade.
You should add your mock to the message board, predict the pick group.
http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/193054-predict-the-pick/
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Ian Rapaport tweeted that Pat Mahomes is working out for the Bills next week.
Looks like we are drafting a QB on day 1 or day 2!
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I have no clue why there's this odd need to perpetuate a myth that every Mahomes supporter is simply focused on his arm strength.
It's bizarre to say the least.
Not that I expect everyone to have read my QB evaluation thread, but I covered my position on him at length: solid measurables, can extend plays--but also shows the ability to speed up his snap-to-release time when necessary, able to make his pre-snap reads, can drop his deep throws in the bucket, and most importantly he showed progress in terms of keeping his feet calm and climbing the pocket more often in 2016.
He's not a perfect prospect; he needs to improve upon his erratic footwork and develop more of a comfort level in the pocket--become more consistent with climbing to safety instead of breaking out the back (sound familiar?).
Nearly every Mahomes supporter acknowledges all of this; perhaps it makes more sense to make your analysis about the player and not his supporters.
I just wouldn't feel comfortable with him in the first or second round. I would be very happy with him as a third round prospect. It is hard to find plays that will translate to the NFL on tape. I have watched a lot of his games. That system is very QB friendly but is nothing like an NFL offence. Goff essentially played in the same system last year and his first year was horrific. He makes some absolutely spectacular plays on tape, Manziel like. I always get concerned when I see a QB back pedal in the face of pressure, run into sacks, and feel pressure when it is not there.
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Watch these videos and tell me honestly he is a better choice than Tyrod next year:
https://twitter.com/cianaf/status/848358130077630464
https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/848358560836845568
https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/848360047251947521
https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/848363992804413440
https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/848366878162640897
https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/848370391278026753
https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/848371458174853120
Besides arm strength, what are Mahomes's best qualities? I get it, he can make a few wow throws with his pure strength and willingness to chuck it down the field. But he looks like a far worse version of Cutler to me in these videos.
The people that like Mahomes are just enamoured with his arm strength. He is a third round prospect that will likely get taken in round 2. He has all the talent to be a great NFL QB. Saying that he does not step up in the pocket, relies on the scramble drill, has accuracy issues, and terrible mechanics. Those are probably too many obstacles to over come to become a great QB. The talent is there but he is a 2-3 year developmental guy, if he gets thrown in to early he will bust.
I do not trade out of #10 if this guy is still there, is...
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Honestly if is a pretty flat draft. There are probably 5 blue chip players. I would have no problem trading down.
Reddick is the best LB in the draft imo. The drop off from Foster to Cunningham is pretty small in my opinion.