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Everything posted by intimidatortj

  1. I try and try, but everything I watch tells me I would rather have Ken Walker, Jr - in the 2nd round. I just am not team Breece Hall at 25.
  2. Exactly. Good point. Bill Belichick has traditionally traded a player "early". Probably one year earlier than other teams might. Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Baltimore know it is the NFL...not for long...and they build it into their process and draft. I get it. I love Poyer, etc. But if there is a stud safety in the draft you can get in the 2nd round and pay him only $2 million a year, you need to consider pulling the trigger. That frees up $7-8 million in Cap for next year. Ditto if there is a good MLB (Chad Muma?) to draft this year and get him on a $2 million a year contract. That might save you $12 million next year. Plus you set yourself up well for 2024 and 2025 and 2026.
  3. I know the argument is "he is young" but when do coaches start to acknowledge he has reached his ceiling. Reactive playmaking skills are something a player has, or doesn't. Yes, they can get better because of experience, and that helps them learn to take better angles, etc. But the ceiling isn't going up dramatically. It comes back to value. Can you sign a MLB for say 1/2 the money that is pretty much as productive? McBeane will have to decide that one.
  4. Daxton Hill could go bottom of the 1st round. Cine and Nick Cross late 2nd? Early 3rd? I don't like our 3rd round pick, because it is towards the bottom of the 3rd....and a lot of nice players will be coming off the board early in the 3rd round.
  5. I will nit pick a little with the statement that we will have a pile of cap space in 2023. Josh's contract is kicking in, and so is Von Miller's. Any extra cap space available via the NFL raising the Cap will go poof. The Cap will not go up exponential every year. Right now it is projected to be $220-223 million for 2023. Josh's hit will be $39 million and Von Miller's $18.7 million. That is $57.7 million for just those 2 players. Beane has to mix in some rookie deals to the defense, while keeping as many veterans as possible.
  6. Sadly you are probably right about Poyer. Although, a lot of Bills players have used Rosenhaus and the Bills front office have a somewhat okay relationship with him. I love Poyer, but drafting a safety early in this year's draft just is smart football. Also drafting a LB would be smart too. You have to prepare for the 2023 Cap....you have some big #s from Josh's contract, and Von Miller's and Tre White's......
  7. In 2023 the Buffalo Bills will have a lot of defensive starters on pretty hefty contracts. This is going to have an impact on the draft this month. Beane needs to plan ahead. Let's assume Beane wants to keep Tremaine and has to pay him $14 million a year, for 2023, 2024 and beyond. Did you know the Bills Cap Hit for Matt Milano is $13 million in 2023 and $13 million for 2024? And Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. Do you pay them $11 million each, for 2023 and 2024? Ed Oliver is $10 million a year just for 2023 and will be higher for 2024. Tre White is costing $ 15-16 million / year. Von Miller is $18 million and $21 million in 2023 & 2024. To stay under the Cap long term, you need some starters making $2-3 million a year. You need some players on rookie contracts. Honestly, signing Von Miller has made it almost a certainty some of the above players won't be on the roster/payroll in 2023. So who would you move on from? Who do you trade Or let go in Free Agency after 2022?
  8. I agree, and have been saying that since the Senior Bowl. If Andrew Booth is on the Board at pick 25, I would be super surprised if he is not the pick. Value proposition of a 1st round pick matters. So it is unlikely a center, fullback, tight end, punter, kicker, and nor probably a guard will be drafted in the 1st. And no quarterback. Cornerback is up there. And if you leave out WR, maybe DL and whatelse?
  9. Wifey graduated from Virginia Tech, so we saw Tremaine play in person in college, and were delighted the Bills drafted him. Bought his jersey. That said, it boils down to production vs salary. Is he an adequate MLB? Sure. Is he worth $12.7 million this year, and higher than that in 2023 and 2024? AND there is another factor Bills fans don't pay attention to. Matt Milano's cap hit in 2023 and 2024 is $13 million. How can the Bills pay Tremaine say $14 million a year, and Matt Milano $13 million a year and Poyer $10 million a year and Micah Hyde $10 million a year and Tre White $16 million and Von Mille a gazzilon? Something has to give. Some of the positions on the defense need to be players on a rookie contract. Maybe Beane keeps Tremaine past 2022. But maybe he can't.
  10. The Bills are acting like they are taking a TE in the 3rd round. They have done Pre-Draft Visits or private workouts with: TE Trey McBride (2nd Rd), Isaiah Likely (2nd-3rd Rd), Cade Otton (3rd Rd), Cole Turner (3rd Rd). They also may have done a meeting with Charlie Kolar (3rd-4th Rd) Knox's contract is up next year. So is OJ Howards and Tom Sweeney. If Knox and his agent want a deal at $12 million a year for 4 years, the Bills might have to decline and go with a younger, cheaper player. Not ideal, but the Cap makes you made hard choices sometimes. PS The Bills have had Pre-Draft Visits and meetings with a number of safeties too. So it could be safety in the 2nd round and tight end in the 3rd. We will see.
  11. No Beane has not ever gotten a compensatory pick. And we won't in 2023 either. Beane signed way too many players that were UFAs this spring. Why do other teams seem to get compensatory picks, and we don't? One reason is Beane's philosophy of "signing our own". You have to let players walk if you want to get compensatory picks. So if he keeps signing our own, it is not going to every happen. Plus he seems to sign a lot of UFAs during free agency.
  12. A source tells http://Syracuse.com that Buffalo held a private workout with Colorado State TE Trey McBride. https://newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2022/04/source-buffalo-bills-hold-private-workout-with-2022-nfl-drafts-top-tight-end.html #BillsMafia This is a private workout, as opposed to a Pre-Draft 30 Visit. A Pre-Draft 30 Visit is held at One Bills Drive and no physical workouts are allowed. A "private workout" must be conducted at the prospect's home school, i.e. Colorado State. And, teams can put the prospect through drills/workout. The Bills previously met with McBride either or both at the Combine and Senior Bowl, per reports. IMO Trey McBride will get drafted somewhere between the middle to bottom of the 2nd round.
  13. One interesting stat about Tremaine Edmunds and pass coverage is he allows a completion on 75% of targets to the man he is covering. Not exactly Revis Island. Yes, there are other LBers that give up as many completions, but there are plenty that give up a smaller %.
  14. Listening to Beane, it sure sounds like he does not have any interest in trading Edmunds. We will see on Poyer. IF there is a team out there that wants to trade for a safety in his thirties, and that is the piece they need, than maybe. PS I thought some team would want to sign Cole Beasley. So far I am wrong about that. Maybe after the draft, for a lower contract? To answer your question: how many positive big plays had he made? Not many. But, Beane seems to love the guy.
  15. I totally understand Edmunds contract would be expensive. I am on team dump him. I just don't know what team is going to buy into trading for him....knowing they are going to have to give him a big 4-5 year contract. I would LOVE if the Bills traded him today. Or tomorrow. I just think it would be difficult. (UNLESS we trade him to move up 10 spots in the draft)
  16. Christian Watson is a real interesting prospect. However, IMO, the Beaner won't force drafting a WR. Let's say the Bills don't draft a WR in the 1st two rounds, and instead draft another mid-rounder with upside like Gab Davis? Or, they don't draft a WR until the 5th or 6th round? The worry is Jamison Crowder will leave in free agency next year and then we need a WR. Here is the thing. We have Josh Allen. We can go and sign another FA WR next spring. A lot of WRs will want to play on the Bills to be paired with Josh Allen. I don't think Beane forces a WR.
  17. Trading Tremaine Edmunds. Who wants him? Who wants to pay him his pretty high one year salary. And then risk not resigning him? It isn't always feasible to do a "sign and trade". And I don't think anyone has done that during the 3 days of the draft. Not impossible, but it would be a challenge. I do find LB Troy Anderson an interesting possibility at pick 57. The guy flies to ball...he is smart and is good sized at 6'4". I would have no problems drafting him in the 2nd round. And if something strange happens and he is still on the board in the 3rd, I would move up to get him.
  18. The stat of picking ACC players over SEC players IMO doesn't really have much to do with the 1st round. Alabama players, for example, get drafted in all 7 rounds. Ditto Georgia and Florida players. I don't know why more ACC players. Culture fits? Just a fluke? A regional thing? The Bills sure don't draft many players from the Western part of the US.
  19. Projected 1st round picks can get a pass by teams if they can't participate in some or all of the physical drills at the Combine.....they are projected 1st rounders for a reason. They have put up great game film. Like you indicate, a lot of the combine is about the interactions (and the medicals of course). I believe, mostly assuming, Booth missed drills at the combine because of his injury. He may have done all the meetings. Either way, if he is on the board at 25, the Bills have to give him hard consideration.
  20. I know nuts, right? Hey they could do it again this year (LB Chad Muma or TE Trey McBride)!
  21. Hey No-Matter-What, Appreciate the feedback. Two quick comments. 37 draft picks is a pretty big sample size, when analyzing Beane/McDermott tendencies. It isn't like we can wait for them both to be with the Bills for 20 years to take a stab at their tells. 2nd, league-wide numbers. I don't have time to grind all the numbers across the league, but I believe Bill Belicheat has drafted 14 SEC players in the last 5 drafts while the Bills drafted only 4. Also I noticed Belicheat drafted 4 Michigan players, and the Bills none. There are definitely differences from team to team. And we know out of 37 draft picks, 12 out of the Bills picks were from the ACC and only 1 is from the Mountain West, I conclude that while it is not an absolute, is a tendency. So, if Beane drafts a Mountain West guy in the 1st round this year, I will take any and all bets that he will draft an ACC prospect next before he drafts another Mountain West guy. I could lose that bet, but I like my odds. Fun facts to keep in mind. Go Bills.
  22. COVID cancelled the 30 Pre-Draft Visits the last 2 years....so you are right, there wasn't any correlation. But historically 3-4 either Pre-Draft Visits OR private workouts turn out to be draft picks. Why not more? a) They may bring in 7-8 players that are 1st round draft picks. They may bring in 7-8 players that are 2nd round prospects. So out of those 14-16 players, they can only draft 2 of them. That is all the picks they have. b) A number of the Pre-Draft visits get drafted before the Bills get to put in their selection, so they miss out on those. c) Some of the Pre-Draft visitors don't do well in the "interview" or "workout" and the Bills decide to not draft them. Overall, very generally, Pre-Draft visits will indicate some leanings. They don't do all these visits and due diligence for no reason. If they bring in 4-5 tight ends, figure there is a good chance they will draft a tight end, for example. Lastly, Private Workouts are very different than a 30 Pre-Draft visit. A private workout is conducted at the prospect's college campus. Coaches will travel there and put them through drills. I know Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary and Cody Ford had private workouts with the Bills, but not a Pre-Draft Visit. A lot of dots point towards Andrew Booth...if he is still on the board.
  23. There are about 270 players drafted. You could get by with a board of 125 players or so. Your list will include guys you think will get drafted in each of the rounds, so you are not flying blind after the 3rd round. You might have 15 players per round you have on your board. I wouldn't advise that approach though. I am a no to Spiller. I like Ken Walker (and he doesn't like being called Kenneth. He likes Ken). FYI Ken Walker has fumbled Zero times in college.
  24. Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott collaborate on the Draft. As they should. Below is a quick overview of "McBeane"'s draft tendencies. Much of this I lifted from Joe Marino of TheDraftNetwork. Thanks Joe. NOTE These are tendencies, not absolutes, and not necessarily about the 1st round. A) Since McBeane has been in Buffalo, they have made 37 draft picks. 12 of them were players from the ACC. 12. TENDENCY = ACC 5 from the AAC (Houston, Cinncy, UCF...) 4 from FCS schools (Weber St, Jacksonville St...) 4 SEC (4 out of 37 is a low % for the NFL) 3 PAC 12 2 BIG 12 2 BIG 10 1 Conference USA 1 Sunbelt 1 Mountain West B) Brandon Beane has traded down only once while in Buffalo. From the 6th round, down into the 7th. While McBeane has traded up numerous times. TENDENCY = trade up C) Senior Bowl. 20 of the 37 picks played in the Senior Bowl TENDENCY = Senior Bowl players D) Combine. 36 out of 37 draft picks were combine participants. TENDENCY = not at the combine? not likely E) 6 of the 1st & 2nd round picks have been "Premier Positions", i.e. QB, DL, OT, TENDENCY = Rd 1 & 2 Premier Positions They don't prioritize positions like Running Back, Tight End, Center, etc in the first 2 rounds. F) Pre-Draft Visits (when a prospect comes to Buffalo OR the Bills go to their college for a private workout). A large % of draft picks have been Pre-Draft Visitors. TENDENCY = Pre-Draft Visitors IN Summary. If your favorite prospect played in the Senior Bowl, was invited to the Combine, is from the ACC and is a Pre-Draft Visitor, you are probably in luck! Lastly, sometimes the reason the Bills don't draft a prospect is because another team ahead of Buffalo drafts him first.
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