harmonkillebrew
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Posts posted by harmonkillebrew
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59 minutes ago, Rocbillsfan1 said:
Every Bills fan needs to be watching this game closely. It’s so maddening at how bad our gameplan was on both sides of the ball. All 4 games we lost in the playoffs with Allen the defense absolutely choked because of the gameplan not the players. You can’t tell me the Bills didn’t have any talent on the defensive side the last 4 years. And McDermott is supposed to be a defensive guy lol. The guy runs a system that works for most of the regular season which is good enough to win games but then he doesn’t gameplan for the teams we are playing in the playoffs.
McDermott and Fraiser run a good system that sets a high floor against mediocre offenses, but they are ***** at game planning and coaching against the top minds. They are just too conservative and predictable. Whether its the Bengals game this year, or 13 seconds last year, they choke at big moments.
And unfortunately with McDermott calling the shots they will continue to over-invest in the D, neglecting our real future - JA.
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Man, I'm depressed.
We just don't have the coaches, nor will we ever. KC never had the defensive talent we had this year, but their coaches are so much better and can actually scheme to stop Burrow.
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Carry that many linemen, no. But drafting 2nd rounders and spending valuable cap/FA money on it, yes.
I also consistently noticed drop offs in the D with certain guys on the field. I think they need to limit the rotations and get the top 4 linemen on the field as much as possible. They're professional athletes, they can play all game and still be effective.
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bad pick. My guess is BPA. They had a 2nd round grade on him. I hate the hubris of BPA, as if drafting effective players is an exact science. You can't go pure BPA in the top 3 rounds in positions w/o need.
the only possible needs were: 3 LB looks (never saw that with Bernard all year), or backup to Milano. He isn't close to replacing Edmunds
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A few nasty linemen and a bruising running back should change that (if our frigging OC ever commits to running)
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He's got similar size to Poyer. Is considered a ballhawk and touted for his physicality.
Would make a lot of sense.
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On 1/26/2023 at 10:02 AM, TheFunPolice said:
Something is off. Either Dorsey is telling Allen to throw to the wide open guys underneath and he isn't, or he isn't seeing them, or he feels so much pressure to make plays that he throws bombs on 3rd and 2 and we punt instead of moving the chains.
Some say "but that stats!" This year's offense was boom or bust. Some days Allen hit the long balls and ended up with close to 400 yards. Other days when they weren't there it was 150 yards.
Dorsey/Allen together seem to run an offense that's 1, 3, 0, 0, 1, 0, 45, 30, 0, 1, 3, 65, 0, 1, 2, yards
We need more consistency to beat the good teams in the playoffs.
We all love Allen, but I worry that he is not listening to the coaches, because I cannot believe for a second that Dorsey or someone on the staff isn't pointing out the wide open guys underneath that he needs to throw to when they review film or even during games on the tablet.
Maybe his buddy OC needs to get fired to send Josh a message. You haven't figured it all out, and if you want to win you need to listen to us.
Maybe he needs a tough coach who will speak truth. You got your buddy fired because you would not listen. BTW you haven't won jack squat in this league. You haven't even been to a Super Bowl.
Holmgren was a freaking taskmaster with Favre. Maybe Allen needs a coach like that who will get on him when he decides to tune out the coaches.
This has been the running theory of Allen's turnover problem this year. Dorsey doesn't reign him in like Daboll did.
Add in, a rough Oline and two WRs not ready for starting roles and you've got the formula for a regression.
Dorsey needs to alter his approach and keep Allen calm and hitting shorter plays. We also need to give Allen underneath weapons that he trusts.
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9 hours ago, Dick_Cheney said:
Good lord, I knew it was bad but this is brutal. A testament to Allen and the rest of the offense for doing as much as they did in spite of this.
Agree Dick.
We need to add two starting caliber Linemen in UFA and draft some depth at G/C.
Time for an overhaul.
It's a train wreck and only a matter of time until this lack of investment in the line results in a serious injury to Allen
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Josh Downs could be a good option, likely in the 2nd. He's a super productive slot WR with speed. We need more production from the slot.
I'd also sign a FA WR to replace/compete with Gabe for the #2 role. There are established vets like Brandin Cooks or OBJ that will be available
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Neither.
Hines' cap hit is too much.
Singletary shouldn't be re-signed
time to overhaul RB room
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39 minutes ago, HurlyBurly51 said:
Will they ever be championship caliber under Frazier though?
That's the big question to me.
I think this Frazier/McDermott system could get the same results with a lot less overall talent. We've been sold the line that all it need is another DE, another CB, a penetrating DT. So we've been starving Josh and the O of talent, trying to scrabble together an O-line with scraps.
Time to switch it up. This D will be the same, regardless. Good against mediocre offenses and bad against efficient, precise offenses.
Invest in the offense. Give Josh protection. Give him weapons. Get him a strong, vast RB. and get him a creative play caller
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I'd call this a salary cap problem. Tre will eventually be fine, but maybe on the downside of his career. But will his cap hit be worth it? Will Dawkins'? Morse's? Diggs'? .... not a large window of being able to pay all these guys and not win a SB. Beane will have to make some shrewd calls and draft really well to keep our window open.
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14 hours ago, LyndonvilleBill said:
I actually agree with this, and I like Edmunds. I just think for the cost, I could probably pay 2 REALLY good UFA guards for the same money. Then draft his replacement. Someone that's a little more aggressive. Or tag and trade for a draft pick.
Thing with Edmunds is given how young he is, we could probably spread out his cap hit over 6-7 years and not be in such a bad place. It's hard to see our D recovering from the loss of him and Power
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12 hours ago, Floridagatorsbuffalobills said:
Hey all,
So I use to be a regular on the old official Bills message board when they had the message board on their actual website. They shut it down after the Pegulas took over and my message board days ended, but after that Bengals game I had to start looking for places to vent.
Just curious if anyone in here was a regular on that board?
same. needed a place to vent
11 hours ago, Floridagatorsbuffalobills said:Yessss! SaviorEdwards!
haha. I remember that. worst avatar name ever
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Time to build around Josh. Invest in the Offense.
Everything else is secondary
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2 minutes ago, DrBob806 said:
Maybe. The Bills faced Cle in a dome, and fortunately the Browns aren't well coached- they controlled the entire 1st half until a fumble by their QB. Cle outgained us that day as well behind Jacoby Brissett.
Another AFC North team, the Ratbirds coughed up the game vs the Bills with 2 Lamar INTs.
I don't think the Bills are that far off, as 4 straight playoff appearances show that. They just lose the trenches vs physical type teams.
Definitely think the Bills need to make changes to get more physical in the trenches.
But the slush and snow exacerbated it, turned it into a major flaw and contributed to the blowout.
I don't think Allen and Co are limited to 10points in better conditions, but hell, you can't bank on Mother Nature to be so kind to you in January. Stupid planning and team construction. Hopefully Beane gets it right this offseason.
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Beane will make moves.
One thing I've come to expect is that Beane will deal. The Von signing last year was totally unexpected but he made it happen.
I think he'll make major moves with the OLine and WR corps and next year (prob RB too) we'll all be excited to see Josh work with new tools.
I don't think Cooridnators will change though, so all this new talent might go for naught.
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6 minutes ago, DrBob806 said:
With the exception of the early season beat down of Pittsburgh, sadly the Bills don't match up to the AFC North style of football.
I'm convinced they would have handled the Chargers, if the Chargers didn't gag vs Jax. May have even handled the Chiefs in the AFC title game (if KC would have beaten Cincy).
So to me Cincy is/was a bad matchup. Philly or the 49ers would have done another 27-10 ish thing to the Bills in the Super Bowl.
The Bills aren't a physical team. It is what it is.
True and not being physical is even more glaring when you're playing on slush.
Put the Bills and Cincy in a dome and maybe we can hang.
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We got screwed by that unfinished game in so many ways. Not to say our inept coaching staff would have learned anything and been better prepared anyways.
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10 minutes ago, Best Williams Available said:
Yeah an a** whooping by the Bengals week 17 needed to happen in the same way the Bucs game woke them up last year. They got complacent playing just well enough to win games that when true resistance came, they folded like laundry.
Tampa game last year is a good comparison. Changed our mentality entirely moving forward.
So, I guess people are buying the McDermott line that we peaked too early?
I'm still blaming that wet, heavy snow
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I wouldn't count him out yet. But he'd need to be realistic in his ask.
We don't have a replacement on the roster, so that would be one more gap to fill.
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At full strength, the D is pretty darn good. I trust Daquan, Von, Micah, Tre (at full strength, Milano, etc.. I don't trust the backups or the situational play calling. Coaching sucks and player development sucks. Hopefully we are healthier next year, although with an aging core that will be tough
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10 points on Offense is the real outlier here. We have never been that bad, including against much better Defenses. The Bengals also have not been that great of a D this year and only held a team to 10 points or less once this season (the Browns). Even Huntley and the Ravens scored 17 on them the prior week.
That makes me think something else was going on beyond the Bengals and their great DC. I think the Bills came out flat. I think the wet snow and footing affected Allen and the Offenses execution (we have smaller, quicker WR and rely on deep passes). And I think the Bengals are a tough matchup for us, especially in the snow, where our quickness is neutralized and lack of size (both on D and O) is exposed. Play this game in better conditions and I think it plays to our strength and it's closer.
That said, playoffs are in January and we play in Buffalo, outside, for god's sake. We need to be built to pound the rock with a mauling Oline and bigger RBs. We need better Offensive schemes and WRs/TEs that can make contested catches. We need to build an O that is not so damn reliant on Allen to make plays time and time again. We need a stout Dline that can't be moved, even in the snow, not just quick, undersized DTs/DEs.
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Not bad. thoughts?
Releases (cap savings):
WR Isaiah McKenzie ($2.6M)
S Siran Neal ($2.2M)
C Mitch Morse ($5.1M)
The Morse release wouldn't be a move the Bills would be happy making, but given he suffered another concussion this season and the fact he's turning 31 in April, it would hardly come as a shock. Morse was a low-key vital piece to Allen's maturation, and even took a pay cut to stay with the team previously. These are the type of difficult decisions teams have to make when there's a huge quarterback contract on the books. Morse retiring wouldn't be surprising either.
McKenzie's hyped summer never materialized into a breakout, and at this juncture, even his $2.5M cap hit in 2023 is not an worthy expenditure for the Bills.
Neal has been a quality special teamer. As a defender, he's never found his footing in any one role.
Restructures
QB Josh Allen
This restructure was essentially bound to happen after Allen signed his well-deserved, monster extension in the summer of 2021. The simple restructuring of the soon-to-be 27-year-old's contract will create $21.5 million in cap space, bringing Buffalo's total to around $27 million. Around $10 million needs to be saved for the 2023 draft class and low-level re-signings.
Notable re-signings (2022 cap hit)
LB Tremaine Edmunds ($12.7M)
EDGE Shaq Lawson ($1.1M)
Edmunds has matured into a key, unique cog in the middle of Buffalo's defense at 6-feet-4 and 250-plus pounds with tremendous range, high-end coverage ability, and recently shored up tackling reliability. He'll only be 25 in May, so Buffalo can push the large cap hit chunks of Edmunds extension well into the future. His 2023 cap hit could be as low as $3M or $4M.
Lawson wasn't a game-changer in his second stint with the Bills. He did flash at times as a rusher and maintained his status as a quality outside run-stopper. He'd likely cost less around $1M on a one-year deal. At this stage, the Bills would have roughly $12 million in 2023 cap to spend in free agency.
Notable free-agent signings (projected 2023 cap hit)
S Andrew Wingard ($3M)
G Will Hernandez ($2M)
WR Greg Dortch ($3M)
EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo ($3M)
Wingard was a full-time safety in 2021 in Jacksonville and emerged as a solid all-around player. In 2022, he was relegated to a reserve/backup role, seeing only 223 snaps. A truly versatile playmaker, Wingard is big and aggressive enough to make plays near the line but was a ballhawk in college as a free safety, when he was teammates with Allen at Wyoming. He feels like the type of lower-priced free agent with upside the Bills would love to develop in a starter role.
Hernandez was an early second-round pick in the 2018 draft and while he mostly underwhelmed with the Giants, he turned in a quality 2022 in a prove-it situation with the Cardinals. With Arizona likely undergoing a rebuild of some sort, Hernandez is unlikely to be re-signed and would be a strong, wide-bodied instant starter at left guard for the Bills in 2023.
Dortch is a young, former undrafted free agent who, when finally given an opportunity in 2022, showcased his dynamic abilities from the slot position. He forced a whopping 13 missed tackles on 52 receptions and did not have a drop all year. The Bills have promise at inside receiver with 2022 fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir, and Dortch would provide legitimate, veteran competition there.
Okoronkwo went in the fifth round of the 2018 draft, and after largely being buried on the Rams depth chart at the beginning stage of his career, he signed a one-year deal with the Texans and was a pass-rushing success in Houston this past season with 36 pressures on 268 pass-rushing snaps (13.4% pressure rate), both of which were career highs. He's the smaller, bendy type rusher the Bills need to add to the outside pass rush group beyond Von Miller.
Draft (mock selections)
Round 1 - Parker Washington, WR, Penn State
Round 2 - Darnell Wright, RT, Tennessee
Round 3 - Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin
Round 4 - Byron Young, DL, Alabama
Round 5 - DeMarcco Hellams, S, Alabama
Round 5 - Jaxson Kirkland, OL, Washington
In the 2021 regular season, the Bills finished dead last in yards-after-the-catch-per-reception in the NFL at 4.22 yards. The improvement in that key statistic was negligible. Buffalo moved from 32nd to 31st in YAC per grab with a 4.42 yard average. The four teams in the conference title games were second, third, fifth and 11th during the regular season. The Bills must get better in that regard in 2023, and Washington is the ideal, bigger-bodied YAC specialist for Buffalo to select in Round 1. He forced 15 missed tackles on just 42 receptions in his final collegiate season and averaged 6.3 YAC per reception.
We're at the beginning stages of draft season, so pegging where prospects will land now is impossible, but it feels like Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be off the board when the Bills go on the clock at No. 28 overall.
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Reassessing the Over-Reactions to the Divisional Round
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I think at full health we have the talent to make up for our mediocre game day coaching and can beat either KC or Cinci.
I also still think that the slippery weather affected us more than Cinci. It limited our quickness advantage on the Line and at WR/RB.
Add in injuries and bad weather and our thin margin of error due to bad coaching is insurmountable.
If we strengthen the Oline and run game and can stay healthy on D, then we have a chance again next year.