harmonkillebrew
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Posts posted by harmonkillebrew
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Trade up for a QB with a second round grade?
Seems alot like reaching for EJ.
We need to be smart at draft time. Can't fall in love with project QBs with real good players are left on the board. If you want a QB, you wait until round 2 and see who's left. None of these guys are a cut above the rest, so don't throw value out the window, along with a much safer elite prosect.
QB is hard to evaluate, but if you see a guy you like you get him. You don't wait till your pick and hope he's there. Franchise QBs are rare and can stabilize your roster and make you a perennial winning team. I'm not a QB scout, but I think Trubisky has the mental make-up and skills to be a top QB. I don't know if I'd take him at 10, but a smarter play would be to either trade back or trade up from the 2nd. If I were the Bills I'd be seriously working the phones to find his landing spot and our own. You don't mortgage the house, but you make an effort. And maybe in the end no trades work out and he falls to you in the 2nd anyways. I'd definitely pull the trigger in that scenario. Then let him sit behind Tyrod a few years and learn.
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Devin Thomas. Second WR off the board after Donnie Avery.
Neither is to be compared with C. Davis, who is an absolute stud and probably worthy of a top ten pick.
man, i remember that guy. I was convinced he was going to be a stud and the Bills needed to draft him. We took James Hardy instead.
A bunch of teams missed on DeSean Jackson, including us, who was like the 7th WR off the board.
The draft is such a crap shoot.
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One guy played in a pro style offense under Mike Sherman.
The other played in the spread and was in shotgun all the time.
I'm not saying Trubisky isn't accurate, but EJ Manuel completed 68% of his passes his last year at FSU. Is he accurate?
also, I'd say Trubisky, while he was in the shotgun most of the time, ran a more multiple read, pro-style offense with 3-4 WRs running varied route trees. It wasn't a dumbed down offense from a QB standpoint.
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One guy played in a pro style offense under Mike Sherman.
The other played in the spread and was in shotgun all the time.
I'm not saying Trubisky isn't accurate, but EJ Manuel completed 68% of his passes his last year at FSU. Is he accurate?
23:10 TD:INT ratio for EJ. Not bad, but 30:6 for Trubisky is ridiculous
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Tannehill stats:
327 531 61.6 3744 7.1 6.9 29 15133.2
Trubisky stats:
304 447 68.0 3748 8.4 9.1 30 6157.9
I think he's a good deal better than Tannehill. Better accuracy, more than half of the INTs
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Bang on Scott Law
While it always possible a fringe signing like Poyer who is career backup turns into a diamond in the rough
Even DW's who hit a couple of FA's backup homeruns last year is only likely batting under .200 with these kind of players
I'm happy to eat crow if Poyer is even an adequate replacement for Graham but it's not likely...
jc
I don't have faith in DW based on his "hits" last year. Lo and Zach were signed as backups and pleasantly surprised. If DW believed in Zach he wouldn't have blown 3 picks on Ragland. Same with Shaq to some degree (even when healthy and as the year went on Shaq couldn't keep Lo off the field). Who else has Whaley "unearthed" in FA?
I don't like the Poyer signing b/c he got starter money despite not showing he's worth it. Sounds like Whaley trying to outsmart everyone. I was hoping for a dynamic S from a deep pool in the draft, but with Poyer's K it seems unlikely.
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For what its worth Zack had a top 5-10 PFF rating through the initial 11-12 games but as RB's pile dup yardage against us he swooned big time in the last 4-5 games, I believe that's the tail off folks are referring too, which affected ratings in whatever metric you want to use for all our starting LB's and Shaq
The tail off was prominent enough that I was very surprised when he was named an alternative to the pro-bowl because lots of other ILB had better ratings
jc
interesting. good to know. love these boards for tidbits like this.
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I heard he's likely to fall to the 2nd. I would not take him in the 1st just because he is VERY inexperienced. Not only that but his record was not good.
Watson, Kizer & Mahomes.....maybe if we sneak back into first rd.
Trubisky is a guy you move back into the 1st for, if he somehow slides.
This guy will be an NFL starter for a long time. Great kid, level-headed leader, hard worker, insanely accurate, good arm strength, and great mobility. He's got all the tools and intangible, he just needs a little more experience. I'm not saying he's the second coming of Joe Montana, but his floor is Chad Pennington. Right situation and coaching and he could end up alot like Aaron Rodgers. Similar traits (maybe not quite the same gun)
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I disagree H20, Rex created numerous open roster spots by releasing players not suited for his unique 3-4 D
Now Sean is doing it for the secondary
So our Bills created even more such spots by releasing players
Again, I'm jot against losing comp picks if its for dymanamic FA singings
But if its to cover released players its their own mis-management
Ask yourself is signing a backup DE for $750K and backup S for 1mK worth losing a 2018 3rd and 4th round draft pick at $580K a year for 4
jc
I don't know if McD is releasing guy b/c of his scheme, more like they are old/ineffective and we have salary cap issues. Robey-Coleman was a bit of a question mark, but I think his cap # and maybe scheme had the most to do with it. With Rex, it was so obvious he was going to bring in his guys, and most enfuriating, we spent the entire draft (5 picks) to add his kind of players, when it was obvious he was on the hot seat. Now we're stuck with some ill fits - Ragland, Shaq - and less draft picks b/c we went all in on Rex. Hopefully those guys can play multiple schemes but it just wasn't very smart.
Biggest issue with draft over FA, as you said, is those FAs stick around for like 1 or two years. Draft picks can be here for 4-5, and then you get benefits for re-signing your own.
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Corey Davis will be the pick.
Has he or Mike Williams even run yet? I'm not going all-in on a guy until I see his 40. Lots of mediocre NFL WRs that looked like stars against college talent (and slow speeds)
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So we have 2 safeties that can switch to CB in a pinch, and Darby as our #1. Not a bad start to the secondary, especially with the draft supposedly being deep there.
You think we still add a S? Probably need 2 CBs or more
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Where did I say that I was showing causation? I asked to be shown it.
Then I pointed out that the Oakland Raiders and Atlanta Falcons, both good teams, have had 0 comp picks in the past 4 years,
Causation v. correlation is tricky. So if you're going to demand causation you should be ready to show it for your counter argument. Easy to poke holes. Give me some regression analysis!
We'll see about Oak and Atl, in terms of staying power. But when most people talk about their success it really centers on good drafting (Mack, Cooper, Carr) and coaching (Quinn), not their success in FA. I think one of the biggest pitfalls of FA is that guys you sign are either big money for 2-4 years, or small money for 1 or 2. There's no continuity. Drafted guys are bargains (esp with the new rookie salary structure) and around for 4-6 years.
Actually, now that I say it, I think the relatively new rookie salary structure is probably one reason smart teams have prioritized the draft over the past 5 years, since it went into effect.
Well, that's exactly what I was implying in my post. The best proven strategy is through the draft. The Bills FO has a poor track record of drafting. That = should have shown Whaley the door and hired a new GM then a new HC to go with him.
we're in agreement then. Here's to trading down!
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I agree that the way to build a team is through good drafting, while filling in holes with smart FA additions. The Bills have not shown the ability to draft well for some time now. Their FA additions have been good. It seems they are pretty good at evaluating pro personnel, but relatively poor at scouting college talent . No team hits on all their picks, but the percentage needs to be pretty high to excel at that strategy , which is the proven best way to build a winning team.
So, given the particular strengths of our management team, FA is a better strategy than draft? ok. But I think a few of us are implying that this is itself the problem and that what we really need is a new management team.
We'll see how it goes this year. I'm critical of Whaley, but hopefully with a better HC he'll make wiser decisions.
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Sorry but I agree with Gunner here, show me the causation.
The Broncos, for all their smarts had 9 total comp picks from 1994 to 2014. They've only just recently started accumulating a lot of comp picks. Is that because they've had a talented team and can't keep everyone? They had already won 2 Super Bowls previously and had been to the SB in 14' and then won another SB after gaining 5 more picks. Are you suggesting those 5 picks are what led to that SB victory?
And what about the Oakland Raiders? They have quietly become one of the best teams in the AFC in the past 4 years. They have received ZERO comp picks in that time. Why aren't they smartest teams in the league?
What about the Atlanta Falcons, who also have received zero in the past 4 years and yet they were just in a Super Bowl and should have won? Which is further than the Cowboys have been in 22 years. Further than the Chiefs have been. And further than the Bengals have been.
That doesn't show causation either.
Oakland has started to turn it around recently due to some shrewd drafting. Atlanta has also drafted well recently, comp picks or not.
The main thrust of the argument is that you build a consistent, winning team through the draft. Prioritize draft picks over FAs. So if signing FAs costs you more high-level comp picks, than maybe you should rethink your strategy. There is some argument that winning teams tend to prop up the value of their future FAs, but at the same time alot of those teams have drafted and groomed replacements with more long-term planning than the Bills have ever shown under Whaley. They don't hit on all their picks, but they have enough to build that kind of roster depth and let the cream rise to the top.
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His production tailed off the second half of the season and some folks think he started playing soft and thinking about staying healthy for his next contract.
A lot of surmise.
I didn't really see a tail off. Couple monster games early on that skewed expectations maybe, and a couple of bad plays against Ajayi and others. But still finished second in the league in tackles.
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There will always be holes in your roster. Free agency has guaranteed that.
I think you just have to pick which locations you're OK being weak at.
Best teams identify and plan for those holes in advance, not rely on draft and FA for starters.
Depending on how you see our FA adds, we really only have starter holes at CB and WR. But if you aren't satisfied with Poyer, Lorax/Preston, Philly Brown, Mills, Seymour, then the holes start to replicate.
And really if our roster was in decent shape, we'd be drafting for future holes at C, G, RB, DT, and TE
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There is gonna be a big opportunity for a little known WR to have a lot of playing time in Buffalo at WR, hopefully someone steps up big.
This sounds familiar.... although last year I guess it was more "a second chance for previously promising young WRs"
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He may come back.. Likely his agent overvauled hims and told him there was no way the Bills could afford him. Or McDermott doesn't want a quitter back with the team.
What's all the quitter talk about? Did Zach do some quitting I was unaware of?
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Right now based on need, and probably value, WR. CB is also up there. Darkhorse could be TE Howard or a QB
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$3.25 million isn't starter money...
So is Poyer our starting FS with Hyde as SS? I'm not super thrilled by the back-end speed or the physical presence, but I guess it will do. Probably looking for a starting CB still or maybe a roving hybrid guy for heavy nickel looks, with Hyde on the slot....
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He has tremendous range. We have nobody that can go sideline to sideline as a LB. I would live to have him back and see what real D coaches can do with him.
Agree with this. I think there are a few ILBs that haven't signed yet - Hightower, Mincer - market is still being set. Sure Z will get his $ shortly.
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Thanks for sharing, OP. I found this to be informative and useful.
With the amount of sizeable holes on the roster (WR/S/OT/LB/CB/QB?) you have to wonder if (hope) they're going to utilize that untapped space. There is a lot of work to be done if we want to be competitive with playoff teams, let alone New England.
Seriously. Any thoughts on next, potential impact signings? Seems a solid CB or WR would help fill some gaps. Morris Claiborne? Kamar Aiken?
Personally, I'd love to see us bring back Z Brown. Not convinced the Lo, Rag, Preston combo has enough speed or coverage ability. Z Brown would be a much better nickel and WLB. Also, not convinced Poyer is our starting FS/SS. Would like an enforcer like TJ McDonald.
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So we had 22 FAs this year, right? I'm assuming not all of those factor into our comp pick calculation.... If you sign a guy for 1 year and then he bolts in FA does that count? Losing guys you drafted like Gilmore and Woods is obvious, and not counting re-signing your own guys, how does the rest factor out?
But yeah, if signing Poyer, DiMarco and Philly Brown cancels out Gilmore, Woods, and Goodwin, and we get no, or only 7th round picks, that would not be so wise
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Because you know that Ragland isn't going to be a stud already? It's a stupid move and you've never even seen him play a snap in the NFL. Ok, you hate Whaley. We get it. Just say that. Don't spew nonsense. If Ragland turns out to be a stud, it was a great trade. Until we know what we have in Ragland, your statement is ridiculous
If Ragland becomes an all-Pro I'll eat crow. I actually generally liked him in the draft, but there is an opportunity cost that comes with trading two 4th rounders to move up 8 spots, particularly when you have a similar guy (P. Brown) already on the team, and other blue chip prospects like J. Reed were still available and we had other needs.
Tyrod's new restructured contract - the details
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Agree. It was a solid move on both Whaley and Tyrod's part. I think TT probably could have gotten a better contract, but he's committed to us and seeing things through.
We still need to add a QB in the draft. Cardale is not the backup and neither TT or Cardale are the long-term franchise.
Hopefully not. QB requires a different valuation and strategy, imo