racketmaster

Boller was 6'3 and Allen is 6'5. His arm talent was close but there are plenty of analysts that think Allen has the strongest arm ever. Freeman did not seem to have the dedication and work ethic. Hackenburg does not have the mobility that Allen has.

jrober, tell me something else about Allen's character, leadership, dedication, family history, physical traits, physical ability that will cause him to fail other than accuracy (as determined by 56.1%)? There does not seem to be another issue or flag surrounding him. Darnold - turnover prone Rosen - difficult personality and durability concerns Mayfield - lack of height and attitude concerns Jackson - accuracy issues, 13 wonderlic Rudolph - limited arm strength All these guys have issues and they all have positive traits. I just don't understand why Allen seems to be an obvious bust and the above qbs are considered much safer options.

I just discussed Locker whose career was cut short by injuries. None of the above players had the complete package of physical traits and good character. When did anyone ever say that EJ Manuel had one of the strongest arms ever to play the game of football? They are on a different level as far as arm strength.

I agree that it is pretty rare to find guys that are sub 60% that have success in the NFL. But we are also talking about a rare talent in Josh Allen and there are not many qbs to compare him to by definition because his traits are so rare. You might occasionally get a player with his arm talent but then he is also a statue. Or you may get the arm talent and mobility but they lack work ethic and dedication. Is there bust potential, for sure. Does the accuracy concern me, for sure it does. But are there some reasonable explanations for the lower percentage, for sure. Jake Locker is close but he never had the rare arm talent that Allen has and his career was marred by injuries. But I'll give you that Locker is a pretty close comparison. He was a 54% rate in college.

Maybe people that hate Allen so much are asking the wrong questions. If they asked themselves when has a qb with Allen's physical traits (size) and rare arm strength (Favre, Elway, Stafford level arm strength), solid character, mobility etc. ever completely failed? I hear Jamarcus Russell comparisons but that is unfair and like comparing Johnny Manziel to Baker Mayfield. Personality and work ethic matters. And when you combine that with rare physical traits it seems like it could be difficult to completely fail.

Who said Allen played Division 2 football? He played for Wyoming in the Mountain West Conference. If you want stats that are worse than Allen's then look at Brett Favre. Brett Favre at Southern Mississippi at had career 52.4% completion rate. His stats overall were pretty low and a 52-34 TD/INT rate.

Matt Ryan was a 59.9% rate at BC and had a 56-37 TD-INT rate. Allen is 56.1% and a 44-21 TD-INT rate. Think about Matt Stafford who was a career 57.1% rate at Georgia. Analysts knocked his accuracy before the draft. I pulled this from a Lions forum discussing this issue after the 2009 draft: Going into the draft, several draft analysts said one of the biggest knocks on Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford was his lack of accuracy, but Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan isn't buying it. Linehan said Stafford's numbers weren't as impressive because Georgia took more shots downfield in their passing attack."It wasn't a dink-and-dunk deal and the reason they did that is because they could - he had the arm to do it,'' Linehan said. This sounds familiar to me as Allen did not dink and dunk his way down the field. Sometimes qbs who have really strong arms have a tendency to want to show their arms off. Past experience has shown them that they can fit balls into spots other qbs can't and that they can get big plays down the field. A good OC can help guide and develop this type of qb just like Favre was developed. It may not always work out but Allen is far from a sure fire bust.

Brett Favre at Southern Mississippi at had career 52.4% completion rate. His stats overall were pretty low and a 52-34 TD/INT rate. Granted Favre was a long time ago but we are also talking about guys who have the rare ability to throw that hard and far. With the right coaching and development, he was able to become a HOF QB.

I think this is how scouts and executives earn their paychecks. Unfortunately, there is no one variable that makes an elite quarterback and there is no one deficiency that necessarlily prohibits a player from achieving the status of being a franchise quarterback. There are so many variables and every qb is a littel different (just like no two fingerprints are the same). We may compare 2 qbs who have similar physical traits but mentally and emotionally they could be complete opposites and this will impact whether they are a success or not. That is why it can be foolish to make declarations about 1 particular attribute or statistic and not consider the many other attributes/skills the qb may be bringing to the tabel. Taking stats from the college game and applying them to the NFL is not easy to do. We have seen many college qbs who play in qb friendly systems that pad their stats but they have had severe physical limitations and have not made it in the NFL. We can go round and round on Allen and his completion percentage. But there have been players that have improved from college and there have been players that have improved significantly even after being in the NFL for several years (Alex Smith). Allen is clearly in the "danger" zone in terms of completion percentage. But scouts need to figure out why that is and if there can be improvement. Personally, I feel Allen had a inexperienced wr corps last year that also lacked in talent. His o-line did him not favors. This needs to be factored into his overall grade and scouts will do this. It appears the Browns have gotten answers that have made them believe Allen can improve on his completion numbers. I am quite sure there are other teams that are not sold on his ability to improve. In my opinion, Allen does not have to completely overhaul his mechanics like a Tim Tebow. So I believe he could make the slight improvements necessary to become a franchise qb. It really comes down to looking at the whole person and every variable as well as the coaches and players he was surrounded by in college (both teammates and opponents). It would be foolish to declare Allen a great prospect just because he throws the ball really hard and it is also foolish to say that his 56% completion percentage makes him inaccurate for life and prohibits him from ever becoming a franchise qb. That's a great point with Wilson. How do we really know that Allen would not have significantly improved on his completion percentage if he stayed for his senior year? The answere is we don't and scouts have to take this into account when making projections. And yes, JP, Boller, Harrington, Smith, Locker and Quinn did not make it. But was it because of accuracy issues. Could it be they did not have the right mental make up and attitude like JP or Aliki Smith. Could they have lost confidence like Locker. Quinn and Harrington arm strength was no where near what Allen has. Again, each player is a unique recipe so it is a challenge to pick out one thing that has determined a player's success or failure.

Why 58%? But I already mentioned that Stafford was a 57.1% passer in college. Overall, It probably does not happen that often just like we don’t have too many qbs under 6’0 that are any good, except Wilson. Allen checks so many other boxes that it make him a very intriguing prospect.

Again, accuracy is extremely important but I think some on here are getting carried away thinking it cannot be improved. There is no guarantee that Allen can make significant improvement but I feel like many have closed off the possibility entirely. So Allen is 56% in completion percentage. Rosen is 63% and thought to be the most polished passer. So how could Allen close the gap? 1. Improve mechanics 2. Play with better WRs as receivers were awful last year and had trouble getting open. 3. Learn to take a little off the shorter and intermediate throws. 4. Play smarter and take check downs more often. All indications are that Allen is smart, coachable and has already made improvement since the end of the season. So, It is possible that the above 4 could happen and if it does Allen will end up as an elite qb. Heck, Allen rarely threw a screen pass or wr screen. If he threw 5-6 of those a game his comp. % would not be the story it is right now. There are no guarantees with any prospect. And full disclosure, I am not sold enough on Allen to trade up for him (especially in top 5) but am certainly intrigued by him and would be thrilled to take him at 12. There are things I like and dislike about each of the top 6 qbs but believe they each could be successful if put in the right situation.

I’m not so sure this is true. Two other players that come to mind are Alex Smith and Matt Stafford. Smith was a mid 50’s% passer his first 4 years and has been a mid 60’s% passer since. The same goes for Stanford who went from about a 60% passer his first 6 years to a 65% passer the past 3 years. Those are the first two players I looked at so I am very confident there are many more examples.

Lumping size together is convenient for your argument. It’s like saying a qb is a good thrower without breaking it down to accuracy, arm strength, touch etc.

And I think Allen checks more than 2 boxes: Tall weight/frame hand size Elite arm strength ability to throw accurately on the run durable Solid character and work ethic has taken snaps from under center intelligent 37 wonderlic Mobile, especially for his size

I saw a tremendously talented qb playing in a pro style system with inferior talent around him. And that did lead him trying to do too much at times. Every one of the qb prospects has issues but this does not mean he cannot be a top NFL passer. Favre made a lot of bad decisions and needed to be reigned in early in his career. But he had elite arm talent and developed into a HOF passer.

I guess we can agree to disagree. However, I still think it is absolutely preposterous to think Allen is a 3rd or 4th round qb prospect.

All I am saying is Stanford had a 57.1% rate in college and Allen is a 56% passer. I think they both had some issues with accuracy in college.

When is a QB with Allen’s physical traits and excellent character ever drafted in the 3rd or 4th round?I get it that arm strength, height, weight, and hand size don’t guarantee success but it helps. Allen may have the strongest arm I have ever seen and he has the ability to throw on the run. He is also mobile for his size and has excellent character and intelligence. His team had a decent record when he was a starter, at least for a program that is not very good. Allen basically checks every box except the accuracy as judged by completion %. There have been sub 60% qbs that have had success such as Matthew Stanford, who also has ridiculous arm strength and prototypical size. Just like there are qbs that are short like Wilson and can still have success there are qbs that may not have had ideal accuracy numbers and can still be successful. Allen may not be my top qb but I can see why Cleveland will probably end up taking him. He was surrounded by terrible talent last year and was asked to make difficult throws, sometimes it was his own fault for trying to force balls down field instead of taking the check downs. A lot of qbs end up throwing a bunch of wr screens and short passes boosting their comp. %, but that is not Allen. Is he a risk, sure but all the qbs at the top have issues. His upside is Big Ben and it is easy to see coaches believing they can fix his accuracy through improved mechanics and timing. And they might be right and if they are they have a special player. We have to remember this is a farm kid who came from nowhere and had to go the junior college transfer route. He is still young and a little raw but CLE can afford to let TT start and give the kid a year to develop. Again, he is not a perfect prospect and accuracy is extremely important but I think the hate for Allen has gone too far and is not justified.

First off thanks for sharing OP as that is a great interview. Listening to Palmer talk just confirmed in my mind that Bills would love Darnold or Allen. Backup option would be a guy like Rudolph.

No two players are exactly the same but it is hard to deny that they share many similar qualities (lower comp. %, explosive runners, big play ability with the deep ball, hard working and determined to be a quarterback (Taylor was also asked to change positions by some teams), similar wonderlic score etc. There are more similarities and also some differences but I don’t think there is a better current player comparison to Jackson. We often hear the comparison of Darnold to Romo and they do share many similarities but also have some differences. Overall it seems like a fair comparison and comparing players is just what evaluators do at this time of year. They rate players in part by what they have seen in the past and what will work and what does not. Those experiences help decision makers get an idea of what a player will be like at the next level.

The wonderlic score for Jackson (13) is another similarity to Taylor (15). Taylor was able to sit behind Flacco and learn for 4 years before he competed and won a starting job in his 5th year. Taylor seemed to overcome the low score through hard work and Jackson could do the same. But Taylor never took the next step and developed into the franchise qb and whether the low wonderlic score played a factor in limiting him is not really known. As a fan of Tyrod, I admired his athletic ability, dedication, toughness and calm demeanor. One area where Tyrod seemed to struggle was situational football, especially 2 minute drives. He did not move fast enough in those situations for my liking and whether that had anything to do with processing speed we don’t know. But there was a vast difference in the way Brady, Wilson, Rodgers etc. ran 2 minutes situations as opposed to Taylor. Some of this might have been coaching but Taylor did not seem to always know the right times to spike the ball to conserve the most time. Again, not sure this is related to an intelligence test but it is possible there is a relationship. I just think the timing is bad for Jackson to Buffalo with the Bills coming off 3 years of Taylor. This regime clearly made a decision to move on from Taylor to get better and I don’t think they moved on from him to draft a player that is all to similar to Taylor. Right or wrong it does not appear to be a match. And before we go too far down the rabbit hole of the wonderlic being racially biased keep in mind that Colin Kaepernick (37), Wilson (28), Winston (27) and Newton (21) all performaned at a moderate to excellent level. I think the wonderlic is probably like most of the other measurables like height, hand size, arm strength etc. A qb needs a certain amount to be successful but there are outliers and players can compensate for deficiencies in one area by being particularly strong in another. But there is a reason the NFL gives the test and I suspect the size of NFL playbooks has something to do with it.

I like to watch all the top qbs during interviews and I can’t say that I am surprised by his low score. Jackson seems like a nice kid but he was the least impressive qb to me during interviews. If I had not known better, I actually would have thought Jackson was CB and not at QB. He still is an incredible talent as a runner but I would have serious concerns about him as a long term answer at qb. NFL defenses are fast and throw complicated looks at qbs every week. Only those qbs that are able to figure out the puzzles being thrown at them each week remain at the top for long periods. It’s possible he is more football smart and could still work out like a Kelly or Marino. But I think the game has evolved more toward the thinking player. Players need to process lots of info quickly and solve defensive riddles being thrown their way. I think that is why the Bills would end up taking Rudolph over Jackson if they can’t trade up.

I suppose anything can happen but Mccaron had a chance in free agency to get paid like a starter and teams around the league balked at that. With all the openings and qb needy teams, Mccaron ends up signing a 2 year 10mil deal with the Bills who say he will compete with Peterman for the chance to start. Actual GMs around the NFL told us what they think of Mccaron and that is he is a backup or spot starter. Mccaron is being paid about as low as a veteran qb can be paid. And watching his games I would tend to agree with the NFL executives. There is nothing special about Mccaron as far as arm talent, size or mobility. He looks like and plays like a backup or low end starter. Most of his playing time took place in 2015 with a absolutely loaded wr corps and offense. Dalton put up great numbers that year as well before he got hurt. Bills don’t have AJ Green, Marvin Jones, M. Sanu, and Eifert to make his life easier.

No

I am leaning toward agreeing with the OP. A QB is going to go #1 overall for sure (either Allen or Darnold). There is no way CLE trades top pick without grossly overpaying for it (I am talking at least 4 first round picks being involved). Beane will not trade away that much capital. If Darnold is available at #2 then same goes for NYG (they are not trading out unless we grossly overpay). NYJ are drafting a QB at #3 and they are definitely not trading down. It is very likely that 3 quarterbacks go with top 3 picks (Allen, Darnold and either Rosen or Mayfield). So we get to #4 and CLE is on the clock. They will have a chance to draft the #1 prospect in Chubb, Barkley or Fitzpatrick. This draft sets up perfectly for CLE and they would want a lot to move down to 12. We could overpay for the 4th QB (the top 4 seem pretty close so it may not be a huge difference in ratings) or wait until TB is on the clock because DEN and IND will be in similar spots (staring at a top 3 player). It will be hard to convince them to move down to 12 for a lesser player. TB seems open for business but MIA and a few other teams know this and will elevate the price. If Bills really like the remaining of the top 4, then it would be worth it. More than likely, they will “like” the last of the 4 but not enough to get into a bidding war with other teams. It also very much depends on what the Bills think of Jackson and Rudolph. How big is the gap between those two and the last of the top 4 qbs. If it is an enormous gap, then it would be wise to trade up. But if it is not that big, then it might be better to stay put and draft them at 12 or 22 and fill the many holes on this team. My opinion is that Bills have Darnold as clear #1 but they are not going to be able to convince CLE or NYG to move down without making a Hershel Walker type deal. They probably don’t love the other 3 enough to give away a ton of capital so they wait it out. If the 4th slips to TB and price is reasonable then they strike a deal. Otherwise, they probably wait.